ST KBW REG BK ETF (KRE)

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  • commenter
    blink0404
    Jul 02 03:59 PM
    'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now [view article]
    Hey Roger Nusbaum fans,

    Here's a link to an Roger Nusbuam interview with Chip Hanlon on greenfaucet.
    www.greenfaucet.com/no...

    They discuss the market and why Nusbaum thinks there could more downside for stocks to come.     Reply
  • commenter
    The Real
    Expert
    Jun 23 04:51 AM
    'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now [view article]
    Stewie, you are 100% right. So many people cannot disguish between the two. Only the very best investors should ever even consider messing with distressed securities. Did no one learn anything from the Internet collapse???? Reply
  • commenter
    The Real
    Expert
    Jun 23 04:50 AM
    'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now [view article]
    leh you are 100% right.

    YYZ, those without VERY VERY DEEP Pockets should never buy into a panic. Whatyou fail to realize is that we have had dozens of panics over the past years and we are just getting started. So if you plan to buy the "panic" I hope you will have enough to buy all pf the rest opf the panics that will happen over the next few years. Just make it easy on yourself and buy oil and gold. Don't be a fool. Stay out of the financials...now and far into the future. It will take many years for them to get back on track. WAIT AND SEE.     Reply
  • commenter
    Stewie
    Jun 22 06:37 PM
    'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now [view article]
    This is part of the problem, value stocks and distressed companies are not one in the same. Value stocks are overlooked situations where the street has underestimated the the earnings and growth potential. Distressed companies are crappy situations where the street had overestimated earnings and growth. They are almost polar opposites. Reply
  • commenter
    ATHELSTAN
    Jun 22 04:23 PM
    Value in Regional Bank Stocks? [view article]
    Thank you for a most valuable analysis of regional banks as a subset of the financial sector. I still like FF (First Financial) and I intend to continue to buy it on weakness. Reply
  • commenter
    schooly d
    Jun 22 11:24 AM
    'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now [view article]
    I operate on the assumption that what has been true of value stocks/distressed companies in the past will be true of financials in the present. In the short term there will be more pain, more so than in the broader market. In the longer term the majority of financial companies will continue to underperform the broader market and several will probably disappear altogether. But a few will have been unfairly penalized or will turn things around masterfully and these few will reward investors handsomely. I'm not smart or knowledgeable enough to identify in advance the favored few, so I just invest in passive value indexes (RPV, EFV) that t present happen to have a high representation of financials. I won't hit the jackpot, but I won't go broke either and I expect to do ok. Reply
  • commenter
    eric hart
    Jun 21 10:20 PM
    'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now [view article]
    "I really cannot see names like AIG, AXP, Citi, Barclays, LLoyds etc going out of business. Seems to be a panic."

    There is no panic, just a long grinding decline. The consensus bet is to buy finacials now. The contrary bet is to short them. Citi may not go out of business, but so what. Does that mean it wont be dead money for two years, maybe three? No, I sold all my financials in February, and wont buy more until the housing and debt crisis are somewhat turning around.

    Its true you pay a steep price for a cheery consensus, but it is also true that you shouldn't catch falling knives and that you should take what the market gives you.

    The market right now is giving a loud and clear warning that the financials are in serious trouble, and it is based on a collapse of trillions of dollars in asset prices--the US housing market lost 2.7 trillion dollars, and the collapse of debt has been even more serious.

    History shows that it takes a long time to resolve debt collapse, and housing collpases. It will take 5 years or more to resolve. Maybe 10 years. Want to play that trend?     Reply
  • commenter
    Stewie
    Jun 21 06:21 PM
    'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now [view article]
    "You got to take advantage of market panics. This is as close to a panic as I have ever seen."

    What market panic are you talking about ? Look to FITB as an example, they slashed their dividend 66% and cut their earnings guidance by 50% plus. So how is the stock halving in price a panic ? It looks pretty damned efficient to me. Just face the fact you bought into the small rally in financials in late January when you should have realized the macro situation would only worsen.     Reply
  • commenter
    pravchaw
    Jun 21 01:00 PM
    'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now [view article]
    You got to take advantage of market panics. This is as close to a panic as I have ever seen.

    I have been selling resources/ materials and buying financial s since January when I noticed value guys like Pzena, Whitman etc loading up on Financials. My losses since January are well into the six figures. I am starting to sweat but am prepared to wait it out a few years.

    I really cannot see names like AIG, AXP, Citi, Barclays, LLoyds etc going out of business. Seems to be a panic.

    One of biggest success was buying P&G in 2000 when it got chopped more than 50% in a matter of weeks, due to a panic because they missed earnings. I re-mortgaged my house to buy the stock. It took 2.5 years - but the stock came back and after 8 years I am sitting on gains of over 300%+.

     Reply
  • commenter
    Stewie
    Jun 21 11:15 AM
    'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now [view article]
    I am always shocked when I read these responses. The "it must go back up because it used to be higher" mindset has never been more prevalent and busted more dopey investors than it has in Financials the last three months. Get it through your head the pain won't end until late 2010 and the recovery will be slow and measured. I don't think many of you realize how mismanaged some of these regional banks are. Banks are a haven for palm pressing suck-ups not financial managers, which is why bank run investment portfolios and bank run mutual funds are usually a disaster. Reply
  • commenter
    Ex15:26
    Jun 21 11:08 AM
    'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now [view article]
    Tim,
    Yes, you seem like a thoughtful value investor....
    However, buying financials and these regional banks now is tough. You may catch a rally if you get lucky, however you will probably suffer much more just because so many bad stories with other players are still coming out.
    Your recommendation of CTBK is a perfect example. It may be a great bank, however if you owned it Monday, you are now 20-30% down from there.
    The argument that these stocks are great b/c they pay a great dividend is a tempting one, until they are so impaired that they have to cut that dividend. In the meantime, you've suffered entirely too much carnage and will get further punished when they announce the dividend cut.
    I think the financial play will be a great one, I just don't have to call the bottom, I'd rather miss 5% of the longer term 300% or 400% rally over the next several years, to confirm a rally and preserve capital.
    I'm not perfect by any stretch of the imagination, just more conservative in watching trends.     Reply
  • commenter
    Tim Plaehn
    Jun 21 10:15 AM
    My Website
    'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now [view article]
    There are well run regional banks out there with PEs below 5 and yields over 6%. I know earnings may take a hit, but how much and what is the upside on good news? I own some financials and have been adding to the positions over the last few days. Looking for doubles in the stocks over the next year plus dividends. Reply
  • commenter
    leh
    Jun 21 10:01 AM
    'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now [view article]
    Last time I looked the Nasdaq is still 50%+ off its highs of 2000-2001 during the tech/net/biotech frenzy. That crash eventually led to the real estate/subprime bubble, and now that has popped as well. Who's to say the banking and housing sectors won't follow the same prolonged fate as the Naz--namely a 7-8 year prolonged drubbing (some might call it a healthy correction)?

    We may well be in the very early innings here folks. Going countertrend such a wounded, ugly, and non-transparent sector is a fool's game--just ask Bill Miller and all the other geniuses who were early to the party and are now knee deep in red ink. Further unwinding seems very likely, and could go on for several years. Bloomberg just yesterday ran a short piece quoting some of the savviest hedge fund mgrs out there as saying we're merely 1/3 through this mess. I'm staying long natural gas and fertilizers until the charts tell me I'm wrong.     Reply
  • commenter
    iThinkBig
    Jun 20 11:04 PM
    My Website
    'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now [view article]
    You got a good point Jerry P. Reply
  • commenter
    charlieatus
    Jun 20 07:31 PM
    'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now [view article]
    It's a perfect contrarian indicator, time to load financial stocks fully. Reply

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