Oct. 9, 2013, 12:04 PM
- The banking sector overall - at 12-15x 2014 EPS and 1.5-.19x book value - is "fairly valued," says Oppenheimer's Terry McEvoy, but he finds some undervalued names headed into Q3 earnings.
- Four top regional bank picks are BBT, KEY, FMER, and SBNY.
- BB&T, says McEvoy has averaged a 12.5x forward P-E multiple vs. the 10.6x it's at now.
- KeyCorp trades at just 11.3x earnings vs. its peer group at 13.
- FirstMerit has had a big run and trades at 13.9x estimates, but it's a growth play - 12% organic loan growth this year along with reasonably-priced acquisitions - and deserves this multiple, says McEvoy.
- At 18x consensus, Signature Bank is also a growth play deserving of a big multiple - net loans and leases were up 13% Y/Y in Q2.
- Relevant ETFs: KBE, KBWB, KRE.
Sep. 30, 2013, 2:02 PM
- Headline risk and falling long-term interest rates (flattening the yield curve) are behind S&P Equity Strategy Group's downgrade of the financial sector (XLF -0.6%) to Neutral. The team's estimate of earnings growth is expected to slow to 5.6% next year from 11.4% in 2013.
- S&P needs to take a number for its downgrade as the earnings estimate cuts are flying all over the place over the last two weeks. The big banks have made little secret that mortgage and trading slowdowns are going to deliver a big hit to Q3 earnings.
- Other relevant ETFs: IYF, PFI, VFH, RYF, RWW, FAS, UYG, FAZ, SKF, SEF, IAI, FXO, PSCF, KBWD, KBWB, IYG, FINU, FINZ, KBE, KRE.
Sep. 25, 2013, 9:43 AM
- Speaking at BAML's Banking and Insurance Conference in London, Deutsche Bank (DB -1.6%) co-CEO says the bank expects a "significant" drop in Q3 trading revenue.
- The announcement isn't unexpected, and follows a similar warning from Citigroup over the weekend, numerous other rumblings from investor conferences this month, and Jefferies' already reported ugly (from a trading standpoint) Q3.
- Previous: FICC trading revenue has been slipping for years and should be in analyst models by this point.
- Banks (KRE -0.6%), (KBE -0.4%) again are leading the market decline.
- Financials ETFs: XLF, IYF, PFI, VFH, RYF, RWW, FAS, UYG, FAZ, SKF, SEF, IAI, FXO, PSCF, KBWD, KBWB, IYG, FINU, FINZ.
Sep. 23, 2013, 10:23 AM
- The financial sector (XLF -1.2%) leads the market lower following Citigroup's warning about Q3 trading revenues. SPDR KBW Bank ETF (KBE -1.3%). Not necessarily exposed to trading activity, regional banks are nevertheless not spared, the Regional Banking ETF (KRE -1.3%). The TBTF banks are all off between 2 and 3 percent.
- Related ETFs: XLF, IYF, PFI, VFH, RYF, RWW, FAS, UYG, FAZ, SKF, SEF, IAI, FXO, PSCF, KBWD, KBWB, IYG, FINU, FINZ, KBWB, IAT, KBE, KRE, RKH, QABA, KRU, KRS, KBWR.
Sep. 19, 2013, 3:05 PM
- Regional banks have fallen and can't get up following yesterday afternoon's non-taper announcement. The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE -1.7%) is off about 3% from where it stood prior to 2 PM ET yesterday.
- The sector sliced right through the bond market tumble this summer as higher rates were expected to boost profitability for the lenders, and investors are using the excuse of the taper delay to cash in some chips (as they are with another higher-rate beneficiary, the insurance sector).
- Individual names of note: Huntington (HBAN -2%), Regions (RF -3.7%), SunTrust (STI -3.1%), First NIagara (FNFG -2.8%), Synovus (SNV -1.8%), KeyCorp (KEY -3.9%), ZIons (ZION -3.1%), Flagstar (FBC -2.3%).
- Perhaps a little less asset-sensitive and performing better: U.S. Bancorp (USB -0.4%), BB&T (BBT -0.3%), PNC Financial (PNC -0.5%), Hudson CIty (HCBK -0.9%), Fifth Third (FITB -1%).
- Other ETFs: KBE, KBWB.
Sep. 16, 2013, 2:18 PM
- Bank of America's (BAC +0.7%) Tier 1 common capital ratio would remain above the regulatory minimum, falling to 9.2% by mid-2015 in the "severely adverse scenario" of its self-administered stress test, which - like Citigroup and Goldman - models for a number of Armageddon-like scenarios with the exception of one: sharply higher interest rates. Is the Fed really that omnipotent?
- The Fed's own stress test results - the CCARs - are due in March of next year.
- BofA's Mid-Cycle Stress Test Results.
- Earlier: Citigroup and Goldman.
- More: Keycorp (KEY) says it will come in at 10%, Capital One (COF) at 12.5%.
- ETFs of interest: KBE, KBWB, KRE, KCE, KBWC, XLF, IYF, PFI, VFH, RYF, RWW, FAS, UYG, FAZ, SKF, SEF, IAI, FXO, PSCF, KBWD, KBWB, IYG, FINU, FINZ.
Sep. 13, 2013, 12:46 PM
- Following dour management commentary about the mortgage banking slowdown at investor conferences this week, Credit Suisse cuts 2013 EPS estimates at BAC, C, PNC. For Wells Fargo (WFC), estimates for 2014 and 2015 are revised lower by 1% due to worse-than-expected guidance for gain-on-sale margins. JPMorgan (JPM) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) see no cut in the out years as weaker revenue should be offset by better credit performance.
- Indeed, after hearing management commentary, Credit Suisse is forecasting loan-loss reserve declines at every bank in its coverage universe for Q3.
- JPMorgan's presentation is a good indication of what the banks are facing with regards to mortgages. Wells Fargo's too.
- Bank ETFs: KBE, KBWB, KRE.
Sep. 11, 2013, 8:23 AM
- Stung in one area of their business by rising rates as refinance business evaporates, regional banks are overall pleased with the steeper yield curve. Presenting at various conferences yesterday, players like FITB, BBT, MTB, and RF say they can now reinvest money at those higher rates.
- Fifth Third transcript and presentation slides.
- "Our forecast doesn't show short rates moving until at least the latter part of 2014 and probably into 2015," says Regions CFO David Turner (presentation slides). "We do benefit from the steepening of the curve."
- ETFs: KRE, KBE, KBWB.
Sep. 10, 2013, 4:15 PM
- Discover (DFS +1.9%) and Capital One (COF +2.5%) are similarly valued at 10x 2014 estimated EPS, but Sandler O'Neill prefers Discover, saying the stock deserves a premium due to superior credit quality and loan growth. Discover grew credit card loans 4.9% Y/Y in Q2, while CapOne was negative. Discover's 30-plus day delinquency rate of 1.58% was below that of all U.S. banks at 2.52%. Finally, Discover's net charge-offs of 2.34% compares to 3.51% for the industry.
- Discover also trades at an undeserved discount to regional banks (KRE). Acknowledging the differences in Discover's and the regional banks' business models, Sandler still believes the discount is excessive again given superior loan growth and improved credit quality. Finally, Discover's net interest margin has consistently exceeded 9%.
Sep. 3, 2013, 3:16 PM
- The template (see it here) is meant to guide banks with between $50B and $100B in nonbank assets - think U.S. Bancorp (USB), SunTrust (STI), and foreign banks with limited U.S. operations.
- These smaller, less complex firms - not systemically important - can use the 27-page template to write resolution plans focusing on nonbank operations and their connection to banking operations. The form is expected to simplify a process that could be quite complicated and costly for the relatively-smallish lenders.
- Among the larger banks (more than $100B in nonbank assets), 4 filed an initial version of their plans this summer. Eleven are approaching the October 1 deadline for a 2nd version.
- Regional bank ETFs: IAT, KBE, KRE, RKH, QABA, KRU, KRS, KBWR.
Aug. 15, 2013, 3:45 PM
- Is it something more than interest rates at work? Selloffs earlier this summer were notable for exempting certain sectors set to benefit from higher rates - insurance (KIE -1.4%) and regional banks (KRE -1.1%) - but not today.
- Leading the insurance sector lower are AIG (AIG -2.3%), Aflac (AFL -2%), Cincinnati Financial (CINF -2.3%), Old Republic (ORI -1.3%), and Prudential (PRU -1.6%).
- In regional banks it's Huntington (HBAN -1.5%), SunTrust (STI -1.5%), First Niagara (FNFG -1.6%), Synovus (SNV -1%), and KeyCorp (KEY -1.5%), and Flagstar (FBC -4%).
- Related ETFs: IAT, KBE, KRE, RKH, QABA, KRU, KRS, KBWR.
Aug. 15, 2013, 6:55 AM
Aug. 13, 2013, 11:03 AM
- BMO Capital's Lana Chan plugs Fed rate hikes into her models and raises price targets on eight regional banks. Her assumptions are rate hikes beginning in mid-2015 and totaling 100 bps by the end of the year, with another 100 bps of hikes by the middle of 2016 - a total off 200 basis points over one year.
- Hold-rated BB&T (BBT +0.3%) is upped to $40 from $38, Comerica (CMA -0.2%) to $42 from $41, PNC Financial (PNC -0.7%) to $78 from $76, SunTrust (STI -0.3%) to $36 from $35, U.S. Bancorp (USB -0.4%) to $39 from $38, and Wells Fargo (WFC -0.1%) to $47 from $46.
- M&T Bank (MTB -0.7%) - still awaiting approval of its buyout of Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK -0.6%) - is lifted to $124 from $117.
- Buy-rated Fifth Third (FITB -1.3%) with price target $22, KeyCorp (KEY -0.4%) with price target $14, and Zions (ZION -1.7%) with price target $33 receive no boost, but Regions Financial (RF -0.1%) is lifted to $13 from $12.
- Many banks disclose their own analysis - but these (probably like Chan's) assume a "parallel" increase in rates in which the yield curve shape doesn't change. By their own analysis, Zions see itself benefitting more than its competitors, with net interest income to rise 18.1% on a 200 bp parallel increase in rates.
- Regional bank ETFs: IAT, KBE, KRE, RKH, QABA, KRU, KRS, KBWR.
Aug. 8, 2013, 1:04 PM
- "We have seen a better economy, we saw better credit growth, but now we are seeing better loan growth," says KBW's Jeff Harralson, bullish on the regional and community banking sectors (KRE, KBWR). "We're seeing the first hints of banks beginning to raise the loan rates ... very positive for their earnings."
- Regionals are generally considered those with less than $50B in assets, community banks are those with less than $10B.
- Dick Bove agrees, with Regions Financial (RF), SunTrust (STI), and BB&T (BBT) his favorites in the sector..
- "It's a credit recovery story that finally turned the corner," says RayJay's Michael Rose, noting United Community Banks (UCBI) of northern Georgia as one with credit issues but room to grow.
- Don't forget M&A activity, adds Harralson, noting both PacWest Bancorp (PACW) and CapitalSource (CSE) jumped on the day of their merger announcement. Others that might benefit from deals are SCBT Financial (SCBT) of South Carolina and Prosperity Bancshares (PB) of Houston.
Jul. 25, 2013, 8:35 AMPNC Financial is downgraded to Hold from Buy at Morgan Stanley, the team citing valuation after a big run for the stock. It's the 4th downgrade for PNC since earnings last week and we've lost count of the regional bank stock (KRE) downgrades over the past few days. Nearly all the cuts were from Buy to Hold and come citing valuations amid the mortgage slowdown. | Comment!
Jul. 17, 2013, 1:37 PMFinancial sector (XLF) prospects are more promising today than they've been for a few years, writes Fidelity's Chris Lee, noting repaired balance sheets, contained expenses, and the housing upturn. Toss in rising interest rates and the potential for accelerating capital returns. Priced in? No, he says, as valuations remain attractive. Offsetting the positive are regulatory concerns, the effect from the end of QE, and a re-bubbling up of EU troubles. | 1 Comment
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