Wed, Feb. 18, 8:23 AM
- Apparel sellers bringing in product from Asia through West Coast ports face a larger risk than other industries from the labor unrest and work slowdown in the region.
- If average delivery times keep stretching out, clothing merchandise could be almost out of the season by the time it hits stores, unlike other industries which can sell the same products all year.
- Marketing campaigns planned months in advance are also at risk of backfiring with the inventory disruption.
- The kicker is that even companies that have found a work-around to get their product in, or don't rely on the West Coast ports, face the risk of increased promotional activity in the sector.
- Previously: West Coast port slowdown continues (Feb. 16 2015)
- Previously: Perry Ellis cuts guidance due to West Coast port disruption, shares -15% AH (Feb. 17 2015)
- Apparel stocks: KATE, ANN, LULU, PVH, VNCE, CRI, UA, HBI, VFC, COLM, GIL, SQBG, JCP, KSS, DDS, M, JWN, ARO, AEO, ANF, WTSL, TLYS, CACH, ZUMZ, PSUN, EXPR, BKE, GIII, SQBG, HBI, VRA, ICON, SHOO, BWS, PERY, DXLG, BONT, GES, URBN, RL,GIL, NKE, OXM, HBI, VNCE, PERY, ICON, FL.
Fri, Feb. 6, 8:27 PM
- U.S. West Coast ports will close this weekend -- 29 of them -- as a nine-month labor slowdown drags on.
- Loading and unloading is suspended, though the Pacific Maritime Association says some activities will continue.
- "In light of ongoing union slowdowns up and down the coast which have brought the ports almost to a standstill, PMA member companies finally have concluded that they will no longer continue to pay workers premium pay for diminished productivity," the PMA says.
- For the union's part: "Closing down the ports over the weekend is a crazy way to do business because it’s hurting customers and adding to the already serious congestion crisis that the industry has created."
- It's the first time contract talks have led to a West Coast shutdown since 2002.
- A 10-day lockout back then cost the U.S. economy $1B/day; the same thing today likely costs over $2B/day.
- Companies noting the impact of a slowdown/shutdown in their reports, or which would likely be affected: (WY -1.8%); (TSN -0.6%); (UNP -0.8%); (LULU -1.3%); (WMT +0.1%); (ANN +3.2%); (M); (KSS +2.3%); (RL -2.1%); (CRI +2.2%)
Thu, Feb. 5, 7:36 AM
- The labor dispute between ship operators and dockworkers on the West Coast has ratcheted up again to threaten the pace of work at 29 ports in Washington, Oregon, and California.
- Observers at the L.A. and Long Beach ports say freighters are at anchor with no open berths due to a planned slowdown in progress.
- Honda (NYSE:HMC) and Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY) are shipping some parts to the U.S. through air services to avoid the crawl.
- McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) has airlifted 100 tons of french fries to the region to stock restaurants.
- Other companies impacted by the development include Gap (NYSE:GPS), Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Kohl's (NYSE:KSS), Macy's (NYSE:M), and J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP)
- FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and UPS (NYSE:UPS) could see a marginal benefit in some cases from companies facing a parts crunch, observe analysts
- ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, IYK, FXD, IYC, FDIS, SCC, UCC, PMR, UGE, RCD, SZK
Wed, Feb. 4, 10:09 AM
Tue, Jan. 27, 3:42 PM
- Apparel retailers and manufacturers could see lower costs this year as a strong dollar goes a long way toward lowering manufacturing and purchasing expenses overseas.
- Companies which manufacture overseas or buy from global suppliers to sell largely in the U.S. are in the best position to boost their bottom lines.
- Cotton prices have also moved in the right direction for the sector.
- Another factor is the much cleaner inventory position many apparel retailers and department store chains find themselves in heading into the spring selling season.
- Apparel stocks: KATE, ANN, LULU, PVH, VNCE, CRI, UA, HBI, VFC, COLM, GIL, SQBG, JCP, KSS, DDS, M, JWN, ARO, AEO, ANF, WTSL, TLYS, CACH, ZUMZ, PSUN, EXPR, BKE, GIII, SQBG, HBI, VRA, ICON, SHOO, BWS, PERY, DXLG, BONT, GES, URBN.
Thu, Jan. 22, 10:57 AM
- YouGov is out with its best brands of 2014 ranking.
- The methodology from the firm is based on positive or negative consumer perception to a brand as tested throughout the year.
- Top 5 Retail clothing brands: Victoria's Secret (NYSE:LB), Old Navy (NYSE:GPS), Kohl's (NYSE:KSS), Macy's (NYSE:M), and Men's Warehouse (NYSE:MW).
- Perhaps a surprise, but the two biggest positive movers on the list were Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) and Forever 21.
Wed, Jan. 7, 9:48 AM
- Department store stocks are getting a good lift from the J.C. Penney holiday sales report.
- Advancers: Macy's (NYSE:M) +2.5%, Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) +2.5%, Sears Holdings (NASDAQ:SHLD) +2.5%, Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) +3.0%, Dillard's (NYSE:DDS) +2.5%, Bon-Ton Stores (NASDAQ:BONT) +1.6%.
- Previously: Sonic and J.C. Penney add to $2-gas lift in retail theory
Tue, Jan. 6, 8:30 PM
- Shares of J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) reached as high as $7.90 in AH trading after the company topped the holiday same-store sales estimates of analysts.
- The stock hasn't traded over $8 since early December as short interest built up ahead of the holiday report.
- Per the norm, bulls and bears are battling it out on JCP. Bulls are lauding management for turning the retailer solidly in the right direction, while bears such as Imperial Capital's Mary Ross Gilbert claim margin-crunching promotions drove the sales gain.
- What to watch: JCP's free cash flow mark at the end of Q4 will be closely-analyzed.
- Sector fallout: Belus Capital's Brian Sozzi thinks the JCP result indicates other department store chains (JWN, KSS, DDS, M) are also poised to best consensus holiday SSS estimates.
- Previous on JCP: Sterne Agee warns, holiday sales report.
Tue, Jan. 6, 3:13 PM| 1 Comment
Dec. 19, 2014, 9:29 AM
- The Pacific Maritime Association and International Longshore & Warehouse Union are far apart in their negotiations on a new labor contract, according to reports.
- The ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles have seen a loss of productivity due to worker slowdown actions as the stalemate continues.
- FedEx (NYSE:FDX) warned yesterday that deliveries to retailers have been delayed more than expected. Both FedEx and UPS (NYSE:UPS) face extra logistical costs due to the shipping delays and could see a slight dip in total volume.
- Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) is one of the few retailers to put a number to the shipment backup, saying Q4 revenue would be impacted by $10M.
- Other companies viewed as having some risk associated with the slowdown include Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Ann (NYSE:ANN), Macy's (NYSE:M), Kohl's (NYSE:KSS), Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL), and Carter's (NYSE:CRI).
Dec. 18, 2014, 7:01 AM
- Apparel prices fell 1.1% in the U.S. during November, according to yesterday's CPI report.
- The drop followed a 0.2% slide in apparel prices for October.
- Retail analysts note that a higher mix of e-commerce sales and the lingering promotional haze threaten margin expansion in the sector, despite overall tighter inventory control.
- Apparel stocks: KATE, ANN, LULU, PVH, VNCE, CRI, UA, HBI, VFC, COLM, GIL, SQBG, JCP, KSS, DDS, M, JWN, RL, ARO, AEO, ANF, WTSL, TLYS, CACH, ZUMZ, PSUN, EXPR, BKE, KORS, UA, GIII, SQBG, HBI, SKX, FL, VRA, ICON, NKE, WWW, DECK, CROX, SHOO, BWS, PERY, DXLG, SHLD, BONT, GPS, GES, URBN.
Dec. 11, 2014, 9:30 AM
- Retail sales struck their biggest gain since March on broad strength.
- What's working: Strong growth was seen in auto parts (PBY, ORLY, AZO, AAP, MNRO) with the broad parts category showing year-over-year sale growth of over 8% in November. Sales were up 6.8% Y/Y for health and personal care stores (ULTA, SBH, CVS, WAG, RAD) during the month.
- What's not working: Department stores (DDS, M, SSI, BONT, SHLD, JCP, KSS, JWN) went backwards with sales off 1.1% from a year ago. No surprise, but sales at gas stations (CASY, KR, PTRY) also fell off from a year ago.
- Retail ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, IYK, FXD, IYC, FDIS, SCC, UCC, PMR, UGE, RCD, SZK.
Dec. 9, 2014, 2:22 PM
- Kohl's (KSS) says it will keep stores open for over 100 straights hours between December 19 and December 24.
- The department store chain is using the marathon stretch to allow shoppers to take advantage of its shop online and pick up in stores option.
- Several retain chains have reported strong demand for the store pickup option.
Dec. 4, 2014, 10:31 AM
- Shares of Destination Maternity (DEST -7.8%) slide after the company misses earnings estimates.
- A frank assessment from the company on a misfire with its assortment to millennial-aged moms-to-be strikes a bit of a chord across the apparel and department store sector.
- Many of the earnings hits and misses this quarter have been tied to on-trend or off-trend assortments. A millennial group which is hard to nail down is becoming a bigger part of that puzzle.
- Apparel stocks: KATE, ANN, LULU, RL, PVH, VNCE, CRI, UA, HBI, VFC, COLM, KORS, GIL, SQBG, JCP, KSS, DDS, M, JWN, RL, ARO, AEO, ANF, WTSL, TLYS, CACH, ZUMZ, PSUN, EXPR, BKE, KORS, UA, GIII, SQBG, HBI, SKX, FL, VRA, ICON, NKE, WWW, DECK, CROX, SHOO, BWS, PERY, DXLG, SHLD, BONT, GPS, GES, URBN, TJX.
Dec. 1, 2014, 7:50 AM
- Comscore estimates e-commerce spending rose 32% on Thanksgiving Day to $1.01B and 26% on Black Friday to $1.51B.
- Most retail analysts are sticking with their forecast for 4.0%-4.5% growth for holiday sales this year, with early shopping and e-commerce making up for a dip in store traffic on Black Friday.
- Apparel sellers in particular came out with a stronger online push this year.
- Related stocks: OTCPK:AMZZ, EBAY, AEO, ANF, JCP, JNY, JWN, KSS, LB, M, URBN, PSUN, BKE, WTSL, GPS, FDX, UPS, DKS, BBY, LULU, KATE, VRA, SPLS.
Nov. 14, 2014, 9:15 AM
KSS vs. ETF Alternatives
Kohl's Corp operates department stores that sell moderately priced exclusive and national brand apparel, footwear, accessories, beauty and home products. Itswebsite includes merchandise available in stores, and merchandise available only on-line.
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