Jan. 2, 2014, 12:09 PM
- On the first trading day of 2014, solar stocks are picking up right where they left off in 2013. Today's gains come in spite of a general selloff in equities.
- A bullish Deutsche note could be helping the group: The firm's checks lead it to think cumulative Chinese solar installations will pass a 2014 government target of 12GW this year. Last month, Deutsche defended Chinese solar names in the face of concerns about a possible 4GW 2014 cap on local utility-scale installations.
- Yingli (YGE +14.2%) is headlining today's winners. The company has announced it's forming a JV with a unit of Datong Coal Mine to build solar power plants in the Chinese city of Shuozhou. Hanwha, which has announced a Belgian module supply deal, is also up sharply.
- Other big gainers: CSIQ +9.2%. FSLR +4.9%. SOL +7.3%. JASO +6.7%. JKS +6.2%. SCTY +6.1%. TSL +6.1%. LDK +4.6%. SUNE +3.1%. CSUN +7.8%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT +2.9%. TAN +4.4%.
Dec. 10, 2013, 11:46 AM
- A day after solar stocks sold off amid concerns about a possible 4GW cap on 2014 Chinese utility-scale solar installations, shares are bouncing with the help of a Deutsche note that calls such fears overblown, and states checks indicate the Chinese government has become "even more serious" about achieving its 35GW 2015 cumulative installation target.
- In spite of utility cap worries, Deutsche's checks suggest "the policy outlook for large [solar] projects in China has improved since mid-November," with approval times having been cut. Moreover, provinces haven't shown any sign of being issued targets or quotas related to an installation cap.
- The firm also thinks a new Chinese solar subsidy program (focused on self-consumption) that kicks in next month will offset the expiration of China's Golden Sun subsidy program, and that a more streamlined incentive process will fuel installation growth.
- Deutsche is reiterating Buys on Yingli (YGE +4.3%) and Trina (TSL +5.9%). Also up: FSLR +2.6%. HSOL +9.7%. CSIQ +5.9%. JKS +6.1%. SOL +3.7%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Dec. 6, 2013, 12:25 PM
- Even as markets rally in response to a favorable NFP report, solar stocks are giving back some of this year's gains. ReneSola (SOL -10.3%), which tumbled yesterday after positing Q3 results and announcing it's shuttering a polysilicon plant, is the biggest decliner.
- Credit Suisse has cut its ReneSola PT to $3 from $5, while reiterating an Underperform. The firm notes the plant shutdown removes 40% of ReneSola's polysilicon capacity, and undermines arguments the company will benefit from rising polysilicon prices in 2014/2015. It's also worried about ReneSola's "relatively low margins" and limited downstream (solar plant) exposure.
- One positive piece of industry news: A Japanese trade group estimates Japan's solar cell/module shipments rose 25% Q/Q and 231% Y/Y in Q3 to 2.075GW. Imports accounted for 58% of shipments, and rose 30% Q/Q and 540% Y/Y.
- Rising shipments to Japan have already lifted the sales and margins of many Chinese module suppliers. First Solar (FSLR -1.9%) announced its entry into the market last month.
- Notable solar decliners: YGE -6.7%. TSL -3.5%. CSIQ -2.7%. JKS -2.6%. LDK -2.1%. JKS -2.6%. JASO -2.2%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Nov. 4, 2013, 12:56 PM
- Positive Q3 guidance revisions from Canadian Solar (previous) and Daqo (DQ +11.2%) are fueling another massive rally in solar stocks, some of which jumped last Friday thanks to blowout Q3 numbers from First Solar (FSLR +4.6%).
- Canadian hiked the midpoint of its Q3 module shipment guidance range by more than 10%, and the midpoint of its gross margin guidance range by 800 bps. Daqo has upped its polysilicon shipment range to 1,200-1,275 MT from a prior 1,000 MT, albeit while slightly lowering its wafer shipment guidance to 6.5-6.6 MT from prior 6.8 MT (shipping delays are blamed).
- The guidance hikes follow a string of positive Q2 reports from Chinese solar firms in August, as companies saw both their sales and margins benefit from growing local demand, diminishing overcapacity, and strong shipments to the high-margin Japanese market. Credit Suisse recently predicted improving demand could lead excess Chinese supply to evaporate by late 2014 or 2015.
- Also: Suntech (STP +13.6%) has officially reached a deal to sell its large and bankrupt Wuxi, China unit to solar cell maker Shunfeng (previous), SunPower (SPWR +10.9%) has announced it's buying module cleaning robot developer Greenbiotics, and SolarCity (SCTY +16.4%) has announced (as part of its seemingly non-stop financing binge) it's selling $54.4M in solar asset-backed notes maturing in Dec. 2026.
- Today's winners, aside from the aforementioned companies: JKS +9.8%. JASO +9.2%. RSOL +8.3%. LDK +6.5%. HSOL +5.2%. YGE +7.4%. CSUN +6%. SOL +6.9%. SUNE +3.5%. TSL +9.7%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Oct. 28, 2013, 5:58 PM
- Today's solar selloff is overdone, and investors should buy the dip, Deutsche Bank's Vishal Shah says, as Q3 earnings could provide a catalyst.
- Expectations have been reset, and most solar stocks are well below their 52-week highs, the analyst says, expecting a rally through year-end based on prospects of further improvement in pricing/margins and upward estimate revisions.
- The firm's top picks in the sector are Trina Solar (TSL) and Yingli Green Energy (YGE).
- ETFs: KWT, TAN.
Oct. 18, 2013, 2:28 PM
- Rumors Carl Icahn is set to disclose a stake in First Solar (FSLR +7.9%) have helped shares fly higher. Similar rumors popped up back in April.
- Several solar peers are also doing very well on what's proving a good day for momentum stocks. SPWR +4.9%. SUNE +5%. SCTY +7.5%. DQ +14.3%. CSIQ +4.8%.
- JinkoSolar (JKS +2.7%) is up more moderately after announcing a deal to develop a 120MW Chinese solar plant that will be built over the next three years. Shares jumped yesterday in response to a Credit Suisse upgrade.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +1.9%) is now up 152% YTD.
Sep. 25, 2013, 2:45 PM
- U.S. solar trade group SEIA has issued a proposal that aims to remove the anti-dumping tariffs imposed last year by the ITC on Chinese solar module imports, and also put an end to China's threats to issue retaliatory tariffs on U.S. polysilicon imports.
- The SEIA proposes Chinese manufacturers establish a fund to compensate U.S. rivals for losses caused by Chinese state subsidies, and that mechanisms be created to protect U.S. firms from having to deal with a flood of Chinese imports.
- Both Chinese and U.S. solar names seem to be responding well. JASO +8.6%. SOL +8.4%. TSL +8.2%. SUNE +6.3% (previous). JKS +5.9%. SPWR +5.5%. FSLR +4.2%. YGE +5.8%. JKS +5.9%. CSIQ +3.3%.
- China and the EU reached a solar anti-dumping settlement in August.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN.
Sep. 16, 2013, 3:26 PM
- China says it will impose a 6.5% tariff on materials from most U.S. polysilicon suppliers (TAN +1.4%; (KWT +1.5%) beginning Friday, but that's far short of threats it could slap anti-dumping duties of as much as 57%.
- The decision follows a U.S. move last year to impose tariffs on Chinese-made solar cells and after China and the EU settled a dispute in July over the alleged dumping of Chinese-made solar panels in Europe.
- High tariffs on solar-grade polysilicon would have risked hurting Chinese solar manufacturers, which depend on imports of raw materials, by raising their costs.
- Three U.S. suppliers are exempt: U.S.-based MEMC Pasadena (SUNE -2.2%) and two U.S. subsidiaries of Norway's Renewable Energy.
- CSUN +1.4%, CSIQ +1.3%, YGE +0.8%, TSL +0.3%, STP -3%, FSLR +1.4%, SPWR +3.4%, JKS -1.6%, JASO -0.2%, SOL +1.2%.
Sep. 12, 2013, 5:58 PM
- California's legislature takes a major step toward lowering the state's high electricity prices, passing a bill that repeals a law requiring state utilities to sell power at rates that rise sharply the more electricity a customer uses.
- The new bill, which needs Gov. Jerry Brown's signature, also allows regulators to cut some subsidies for solar power (TAN, KWT) while also removing caps on the total amount of power that can come from rooftop panels.
- Pacific Gas & Electric (PCG) supported the bill as "necessary to reduce very high, punitive rates that some of our customers are now paying."
Sep. 12, 2013, 8:16 AM
- Solar panel installations in the U.S. jumped 15% to 832 MW during Q2 as booming business for utility-scale systems helped offset weaker demand for residential and commercial projects, according to a report from GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association.
- The utility-scale solar market soared 42% Q/Q, but the report says utilities in California and other key states have slowed their procurement of power from new solar projects.
- The average installed price of solar systems fell to $3.05/watt from $3.36 in Q1 and $3.43 a year ago, but prices vary greatly state to state and project to project.
- ETFs: TAN +6.6% premarket; KWT.
- Related tickers: JASO, FSLR, JKS, TSL, SOL, STP, LDK, SPWR, CSIQ, YGE, CSUN, SCTY, RSOL, SUNE, HSOL.
Sep. 5, 2013, 1:22 PM
- A day after JPMorgan provided a big lift to Chinese solar stocks, Deutsche is giving a boost to both Chinese and U.S. names.
- Analyst Vishal Shah predicts U.S. solar installation growth will total 6GW-8GW in the 2013-2014 timeframe, and that the market could see "an inflection point" in 2015 ahead of a 2016 tax credit expiration.
- He expects the adoption of new incorporation and leasing structures - a SolarCity (SCTY +4.4%) specialty - to boost growth by lowering financing costs, and views the potential arrival of residential leasing options as another major growth catalyst. In spite of ITC anti-dumping tariffs, Chinese firms are expected to gain share.
- In addition to SolarCity, winners include First Solar (FSLR +4.9%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ +5.1%), Daqo (DQ +11.9%), Suntech (STP +14%), Trina (TSL +4%), Yingli (YGE +5.6%), SunEdison (SUNE +2.4%), and ReneSola (SOL +2.5%). ETFs are also up: TAN +3%. KWT +2.6%.
Jul. 16, 2013, 9:22 AMDo you know what's in your solar ETF? The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) is up 76% YYD, outperforming the Market Vectors Solar ETF (KWT) by 2400 basis points. TAN is more concentrated than KWT - holding 26 stocks vs. 34 - meaning it's probably going to do better in the good times, but the key may be SolarCity (SCTY). The stock's nearly tripled this year and is included in TAN but absent from KWT. One wonders for how long. KWT's periodic review comes at summer's end. | Comment!
Jul. 7, 2013, 2:46 AMThe clean out in the solar-power sector continued on Friday, with Hawaii-based Hoku (HOKU) and Germany's Conergy filing for for liquidation. Hoku filed for Chapter 7 after being unable to attract the money to complete a $700M polysilicon plant following a plunge in prices for the material, which is used in solar panels, due to oversupply. Conergy was once Europe's largest solar company. | Comment!
Jul. 1, 2013, 11:07 AMVolatile solar stocks rally (TAN +2.7%) on what's proving a good day for risk assets, as investors decide a weak Chinese manufacturing PMI print was already priced in. JKS +7.5%. SCTY +7.1%. SUNE +6.6%. YGE +4.6%. LDK +6.2%. First Solar (FSLR +4.4%) has announced this morning construction has begun for its 50MW Macho Springs New Mexico solar project, and ReneSola (SOL +6.1%) says it has restrated production at a polysilicon plant (halted in Nov.) following upgrades. ReneSola says the plant now has an annual production capacity of 10K MT, and that it expects to produce 1.8K-2K MT in Q3. | Comment!
Jun. 11, 2013, 10:40 AMVolatile solar stocks head south (TAN -4%) after LDK Solar (LDK -8.5%) beat Q1 revenue estimates by $7.1M, but missed EPS forecasts $0.25 thanks to a -57% gross margin (-42.7% exc. a $15.1M inventory write-down), and provided somewhat disappointing revenue guidance. JKS -5.5%. TSL -4.9%. JASO -6.2%. DQ -4.8%. SPWR -4.4%. FSLR -4.9%. YGE -5.2%. GTAT -3.6%. FSLR -4.9%. LDK ended Q1 with $174M in cash, $182M in pledged bank deposits, and a whopping $2.6B in debt. (SolarCity) | Comment!
Jun. 5, 2013, 11:41 AMSolar stocks see a bit of profit-taking after Goldman downgrades JA Solar (JASO -9.3%) and Trina (TSL -6%), and the EU officially announces Chinese module tariffs that will only total 11.8% for now, but could soar as high as 67.9% on Aug. 6 if a settlement isn't reached. Yingli (YGE -5.4%) states its tariff will rise to 37.3% on Aug. 6, which it claims is "the lowest rate" of all Chinese mobile vendors. Trina says its tariff will rise to 51.5%. LDK -5.2%. CSIQ -3.5%. JKS -3.2%. CSUN -4.1%. SOL -4.4%. FSLR -3.4%. CSIQ -3.5% in spite of its solar plant sales. | Comment!
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