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at MarketWatch.com (Dec 31, 2010)
KWT vs. ETF Alternatives
Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the Market Vectors Global Solar Energy Index (the “Index”).
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Wednesday, Mar 58:29 AM
Wednesday, Mar 58:29 AM| Comment!
- Canadian Solar (CSIQ) -5.4% premarket after swinging to a Q4 profit but warning of weather-related effects on its top line in the current quarter.
- Q4 solar module shipments totaled 621 MW, up 30% Q/Q and 54% Y/Y.
- Issues downside guidance for Q1, seeing revenue of $415M-$430M vs. $545M analyst consensus estimates and solar module shipments of 470-490 MW, caused by severe winter in North America which delayed construction and recognition of ~$100M in revenue from some utility-scale projects in Canada.
- Expects FY 2014 shipments of 2.5-2.7 GW with revenue of $2.7B-$2.9B, in line with analysts' views, as project revenue recognition is back-end loaded.
- Sales have shifted strongly to Asia and the Americas: In Q4, the Asia region accounted for 62% of sales vs. 39% in the year-ago period, the Americas totaled 32% vs. 20%, and Europe accounted for 5.5% vs. 41% a year ago.
- ETFs: TAN, KWT.
Tuesday, Mar 41:34 PM
Tuesday, Mar 41:34 PM| Comment!
- With the help of positive earnings news from Trina and Yingli, volatile solar stocks are among the standouts (TAN +6%) on a very good day for equities.
- Trina posted mixed Q4 results, but also issued a strong 2014 module shipment forecast. Yingli has pre-announced its Q4 module shipments will be soundly above prior guidance.
- Notable gainers: SPWR +8.6%. JASO +8%. CSUN +6.6%. CSIQ +7.3%. STRI +10.1%. DQ +8.4%. SOL +6%.
- SunEdison (SUNE +10.5%) is taking off with the help of a Morgan Stanley upgrade. Analyst Timothy Radcliff thinks the commercial-scale solar market could grow to 129GW by 2018, with a rush of activity prior to a 2017 federal tax credit cut. He also thinks SunEdison's solar project yieldco spinoff could sport a $1.6B valuation within 12-18 months, and notes such instruments "trade at premium valuations given [their] predictable and growing cash flows."
- JinkoSolar (JKS +14.8%) is more than recouping yesterday's post-earnings losses with the help of positive commentary. Roth (Buy) notes Jinko's 2014 module guidance of 2.3GW-2.5GW beat the firm's 2.1GW estimate, and thinks Jinko is the first Chinese company to see its non-silicon processing costs drop below $0.40/watt.
Wednesday, Feb 2612:14 PM
Wednesday, Feb 2612:14 PM| 9 Comments
- With 17 of the 20 analysts covering First Solar (FSLR -11.5%) holding neutral or bearish stances going into the company's Q4 report, little sympathy is being shown in response to a big Q4 miss and soft Q1 guidance.
- Goldman (Sell, PT lowered to $42 from $45) continues to see a "lack of upside in First Solar's utility-scale model." The firm points to checks showing a "challenging U.S. growth outlook for large-scale utility projects," mixed performance in emerging markets, and the lack of a near-term yieldco spinoff/IPO for First Solar's solar projects (SunEdison recently filed for one).
- Goldman also thinks First Solar's ability to hit a 1:1 book-to-bill at the end of 2013 was accompanied by a mix shift towards lower-margin module orders.
- Morgan Stanley is pleased with First Solar's cost-cutting moves, but also thinks investors are counting on "a large degree of profitable international growth," which it considers "highly uncertain." Cowen expects gross margin to be down 450 bps Q/Q, but also notes Q1 guidance "may not be indicative of full-year results."
- In spite of First Solar, peers are turning in a strong day (TAN +4.1%). The Street's positive response to SunEdison's Capital Markets Day could be helping.
- Notable gainers: SCTY +6.6%. CSIQ +8.4%. DQ +6.9%. JKS +4.2%. JASO +3.5%. ENPH +4.1%.
Monday, Nov 42013, 12:56 PM
Monday, Nov 42013, 12:56 PM| 3 Comments
- Positive Q3 guidance revisions from Canadian Solar (previous) and Daqo (DQ +11.2%) are fueling another massive rally in solar stocks, some of which jumped last Friday thanks to blowout Q3 numbers from First Solar (FSLR +4.6%).
- Canadian hiked the midpoint of its Q3 module shipment guidance range by more than 10%, and the midpoint of its gross margin guidance range by 800 bps. Daqo has upped its polysilicon shipment range to 1,200-1,275 MT from a prior 1,000 MT, albeit while slightly lowering its wafer shipment guidance to 6.5-6.6 MT from prior 6.8 MT (shipping delays are blamed).
- The guidance hikes follow a string of positive Q2 reports from Chinese solar firms in August, as companies saw both their sales and margins benefit from growing local demand, diminishing overcapacity, and strong shipments to the high-margin Japanese market. Credit Suisse recently predicted improving demand could lead excess Chinese supply to evaporate by late 2014 or 2015.
- Also: Suntech (STP +13.6%) has officially reached a deal to sell its large and bankrupt Wuxi, China unit to solar cell maker Shunfeng (previous), SunPower (SPWR +10.9%) has announced it's buying module cleaning robot developer Greenbiotics, and SolarCity (SCTY +16.4%) has announced (as part of its seemingly non-stop financing binge) it's selling $54.4M in solar asset-backed notes maturing in Dec. 2026.
- Today's winners, aside from the aforementioned companies: JKS +9.8%. JASO +9.2%. RSOL +8.3%. LDK +6.5%. HSOL +5.2%. YGE +7.4%. CSUN +6%. SOL +6.9%. SUNE +3.5%. TSL +9.7%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Tuesday, Jun 112013, 10:40 AMVolatile solar stocks head south (TAN -4%) after LDK Solar (LDK -8.5%) beat Q1 revenue estimates by $7.1M, but missed EPS forecasts $0.25 thanks to a -57% gross margin (-42.7% exc. a $15.1M inventory write-down), and provided somewhat disappointing revenue guidance. JKS -5.5%. TSL -4.9%. JASO -6.2%. DQ -4.8%. SPWR -4.4%. FSLR -4.9%. YGE -5.2%. GTAT -3.6%. FSLR -4.9%. LDK ended Q1 with $174M in cash, $182M in pledged bank deposits, and a whopping $2.6B in debt. (SolarCity) |Tuesday, Jun 112013, 10:40 AM| Comment!
Tuesday, May 282013, 10:33 AM2013's giant solar stock rally continues (TAN +3.9%) as the EU faces a backlash over Chinese tariff proposals, and Canadian Solar (CSIQ +15.2%) soundly beats Q1 estimates with the help of a 470 bps Q/Q increase in gross margin to 9.7%. Though CSIQ's opex would only have fallen 3% Y/Y if not for the reversal of a $30M arbitration award, it still fell 17% Q/Q (exc. one-time events) thanks to 25% Q/Q drop in selling expenses. Also: CSIQ is guiding for module shipments to rise to 380MW-410MW in Q2 from Q1's 340MW, and (like JA Solar) is seeing surging Japanese shipments - they rose 76% Q/Q in Q1, and made up 25% of total shipments. TSL +8.4%. JKS +4.6%. YGE +6.9%. LDK +4.8%. DQ +7%. SCTY +2.5%. |Tuesday, May 282013, 10:33 AM| Comment!
Monday, May 202013, 10:45 AMJA Solar (JASO +34.4%) is now skying higher following its Q1 beat and full-year shipment guidance reiteration, and is providing fresh fuel for the colossal solar stock rally that started last fall (TAN +4.4%). TSL +13.3%. DQ +20%. LDK +9.9%. JKS +10.3%. SCTY +11.6%. SOL +9.4%. CSUN +8.9%. SPWR +4.9%. ASTI +9.4%. YGE +8.4%. CSIQ +6.6%. The fact 38% of JA's Q1 module shipments went to Japan (a market with higher ASPs/margins than China) is likely going over well with investors. |Monday, May 202013, 10:45 AM| 6 Comments
Tuesday, Apr 92013, 1:41 PMFirst Solar (FSLR +23.8%) guides on its analyst day for 2013 revenue of $3.8B-$4B and EPS of $4-$4.50, far above a consensus of $3.15B and $3.46. Shares have spiked higher on the news, and were shortly halted due to volatility. Other solar names are also surging: SPWR +9.8%. TSL +8.7%. DQ +12.3%. STP +36.1%. LDK +15%. JKS +15.4%. WFR +7.5%. JASO +6.6%. (previous) Update (1:56): First Solar shares are now up 48.2%, and have been halted again. CNNMoney's Paul R. La Monica notes over 1/3 of the float is shorted. "Can you say squeeze?" |Tuesday, Apr 92013, 1:41 PM| 9 Comments
Monday, Apr 12013, 2:00 PMDisappointing Q4 results from Daqo (DQ -9.8%), together with a general decline in risk assets, fuels a rout in solar names. YGE -7.9%. SOL -7.3%. JKS -5.4%. GTAT -4.1%. CSIQ -4.9%. SPWR -2.8%. WFR -2.5%. Daqo's Q4 revenue of $6.2M represented a 77% Y/Y drop, and was well below the $14.5M forecast by the one analyst providing estimates. Gross margin was -178.5% (no typo), a little worse than Q3's -51.1%. Polysilicon output is expected to total 720 MT in Q1, up from Q4's 592 MT. |Monday, Apr 12013, 2:00 PM| Comment!
Friday, Nov 162012, 10:23 AMThe solar industry's bad earnings news won't let up. Yingli (YGE -8.3%) is the latest culprit, warning it expects to report a 17% Q/Q drop for Q3 module shipments on Nov. 28, something that doubtlessly means Yingli's prior guidance for a 31%-37% Y/Y increase in 2012 shipments won't hold. Gross margin is expected to total just 0%-1% if one doesn't include the reversal of a provision related to the ITC's anti-dumping duties, and -22% to -24% if one does. Solar stocks are selling off again (TAN -3%), capping off a brutal week. (Canadian Solar) |Friday, Nov 162012, 10:23 AM| Comment!
Thursday, Nov 152012, 1:55 PMIt's still no fun to be a solar manufacturer. Canadian Solar (CSIQ -14%) is seeing huge losses following its big Q3 miss, which is contributing to yet another sector rout (TAN -3.6%). Canadian's gross margin fell to a mere 2.2%, and would likely have been negative if not for its efforts (similar to those of peers) to expand into plant construction. The company expects to ship 380MW-420MW of modules in Q4, compared with 384MW in Q3, and record a gross margin of 1%-3%. (yesterday) (transcript) |Thursday, Nov 152012, 1:55 PM| 2 Comments
Wednesday, Aug 82012, 4:24 PMSunPower (SPWR) is now down 14.1% AH following its Q2 report. It looks as if the Street is skeptical about full-year guidance, and is focusing on the Q2 top-line miss and soft Q3 forecast. SunPower's gross margin rose 240 bps Q/Q to 15.1% thanks to a 10% drop in cost per watt, and played a big role in the EPS beat. However, it's expected to fall to the 10%-12% range in Q3. Other solar names could end up declining tomorrow in sympathy. (PR) |Wednesday, Aug 82012, 4:24 PM| Comment!
Wednesday, Aug 82012, 11:08 AMSolar stocks outperform (TAN +1.4%) following MEMC's (WFR +18%) strong Q2 report. Revenue of $933.4M (+20% Y/Y and +78% Q/Q) blew past consensus by $184M, while non-GAAP EPS of $0.14 beat by $0.16. Also, MEMC is guiding for wafer revenue to grow 3%-8% Q/Q, which suggests a consensus for a 31% drop in total revenue will prove quite low. Between MEMC and First Solar, is there reason to think solar is finally bottoming? There's still a lot of bad news to go around. (PR) |Wednesday, Aug 82012, 11:08 AM| Comment!
Thursday, Aug 22012, 11:18 AMFirst Solar (FSLR +24.5%) skyrockets after a strong Q2 report that featured improving margins and receivables. Four firms are upgrading - among them is Cantor, which is now more confident about FSLR's ability to transition to a construction-focused business model. However, Deutsche and Needham express worries about the profitability of construction deals, and ongoing weakness in sales for 3rd-party installations. 55.8% of FSLR's float was shorted as of July 13. (transcript) |Thursday, Aug 22012, 11:18 AM| 3 Comments
Tuesday, Jul 312012, 12:47 PMTrina Solar (TSL -9.3%) makes new lows after warning it expects Q2 module shipments of 390MW-420MW, below prior guidance of 500MW-520MW. Trina also expects to report a gross margin of just 7%-9% (still better than LDK Solar's negative margin), a $26M-$28M inventory write-down, a $45M-$48M receivables provision (many solar vendors have had collection issues), and a forex loss of $22M-$23M. Shares could also be affected by Suntech's problems. |Tuesday, Jul 312012, 12:47 PM| Comment!
Thursday, Jul 212011, 9:34 AMConcerns about the accounting practices of U.S.-traded Chinese companies are now extending to solar panel manufacturers, leading to names such as LDK Solar (LDK), Trina Solar (TSL), and ReneSola (SOL) trading at very low multiples relative to their forward earnings. Of course, weak demand and pricing aren't helping much either. |Thursday, Jul 212011, 9:34 AM| 2 Comments