LDK Solar (LDK)

All Comments on LDK

  • commenter
    jlounsbury59
    Aug 13 02:42 PM
    My Website
    LDK Solar: A Spark of Light [view article]
    I have been long LDK for almost 1 year and have made a bundle with short hedge positions against the box (2 shares short for every share owned) on several occasions. I most recently closed a short position on Aug. 6 @ 33 for a $2.47 profit per share and remain long only as of today. My long position was acquired with an average cost of just under $33 per share so my potential long term gain is on $6 and change as of today. However, my short positions have produced total returns of more than $72 per share and I have twice written covered calls for a total return of $21.50 per share.

    Needless to say, I love this stock because of the spectacular trading profits. However, I calcuate fair value today between $35 and $58 per share, depending on the estimated five year earnings growth used in the calculation and on the assumed value for Beta going forward (it's very high right now). This is very attractive compared to the very over-valued prices currently on most solar stocks. Ultimately, I expect more long term gains from LDK than short term trading returns.

    Using the high end of my fair value range, the fair value price for LDK in five years is approximately $260.     Reply
  • commenter
    trumanburban
    k
    Aug 13 02:22 PM
    How to Profit From China's Environmental Woes [view article]
    Jinpan International is another windpower play. This Chinese manufacturer of cast resin transformers is entering windmill mkt -- currently small portion of their business but the balance of business will also benefit from projected expansion of Chinese electrical grid generally. A recent Seeking Alpha article on the company here:
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Website: jstusa.net     Reply
  • commenter
    Wayfarer
    Aug 13 12:31 PM
    LDK Solar Nearly Doubles Estimates [view article]
    @Alpha 26 --- Show me the thinfilm technology. Panel cost/watt is only half the game. Solar efficiency is the other. It takes twice as much of all that other stuff in a solar installation when solar efficiency is half. You need to back your bold statements up with numbers. Reply
  • commenter
    Bobwins
    Aug 13 12:17 PM
    How to Profit From China's Environmental Woes [view article]
    APWR is entering the wind turbine business this year. They have built a new factory and have licensed turbine technology from leading European manufacturers. Their base business is energy cogeneration where they retrofit or build new facilities to capture smokestack heat to generate electricity to either run the factory or provide electricity to nearby housing for factory workers. The factory captures previously wasted energy and also get electricity that is independent of the notoriously unreliable power grid. APWR has a backlog that is over 1 billion. Profitable, with excellent mgmt.

    Another backdoor way to play the wind energy business is HOLI. They are in the automation control systems. They specialize in control systems for industrial manufacturing, rail and subway. They recently won a contract for a new high speed rail line. They also are the only Chinese company authorized to provide control systems for nuclear power plants. They have studied the wind energy business and have designed wind turbine control systems. They feel the equipment is very similar to other industrial applications. The Chinese government is mandating that Chinese wind turbines contain 70% Chinese made components. This law won't be implemented for a couple of years but Chinese manufacturers will likely line up Chinese sources. HOLI is negotiating with Goldwind now and expects to make a deal soon.

    Bobwins     Reply
  • commenter
    David White
    Aug 13 10:52 AM
    Retail on a Tear - Fast Money Recap (8/11/08) [view article]
    Today K+S AG a European specialty fertilizer supplier reported fantastic earnings. They more than quadrupled the year ago quarter. This may be the impetus to turn around the POT, MOS, and AGU trades. They moved to the upside yesterday when the dollar weakened. However, they are continuing to move up today even with a relatively strong dollar. Grain futures are up today. Oil futures are up slightly. Things are boding very well for POT et al. Reply
  • commenter
    clean water
    Aug 13 10:32 AM
    How to Profit From China's Environmental Woes [view article]
    Clwt is the way to play the China air/water pollution.
    > scott     Reply
  • commenter
    User 127104
    Aug 13 10:15 AM
    How to Profit From China's Environmental Woes [view article]
    Or the folks who buy the stuff US via wally world and every other retailer could demand cleaner production. i.e. my TV that cost 195 would now be 220. Would that be worth the price U-Bet Reply
  • commenter
    john s.
    gordon
    Aug 13 08:12 AM
    How to Profit From China's Environmental Woes [view article]
    not a pipe dream, much of china's fuel utilization has low efficiency. using modern furnace technology with SOx NOx rox control they can increase efficiencies to 30% coal pile to bus bar. replacing ground level (household) coal/coke fired sources with town gas piped in from gas plants will help a great deal. many district-heating systems exist in china, using the same steam twice (electric & building heat), with high population densities you can do this efficiently.
    > jack     Reply
  • commenter
    absurd
    Aug 13 07:13 AM
    LDK Solar: A Spark of Light [view article]
    Can you guys get something straight, EPS last year was .29 and Q108 was .45 I wonder if this is done on purpose, every single article compares this quarter EPS of 1.29 with .45 last yr?? Reply
  • commenter
    Ducpho466
    Aug 13 07:09 AM
    LDK Solar: A Spark of Light [view article]
    LDK has been the victim of illegal naked shorting for years by hedge funds. There are 16 million bogus shares out now that need to be covered at a time when the stock price is going up. Beware of "news" that "swiftboats" LDK, such as statements that the new poly plant will not produce. That is the hedge funds trying to keep the price down while they try to salvage their criminal naked short positions. Reply
  • commenter
    sirfisup
    Aug 13 06:46 AM
    How to Profit From China's Environmental Woes [view article]
    Clean Coal Technology is a myth. There is no such thing as clean coal. The fact is that you and everyone who believes that clean coal exists have been brainwashed by the coal industries promotion that coal can be a clean source of energy. Remember the cigarette pack ads and the surgeon warning. More and more states have a moratorium regarding building coal fired utility plants and within time they will all be shut down. Clean coal is nothing more than an advertising gimmick and apparently it has convinced some who haven't taken the time to truly understand that it is nothing more than a pipe dream. Reply
  • commenter
    ezetrader
    Aug 13 06:10 AM
    LDK Solar: A Spark of Light [view article]
    You forgot to mention that net margins were 22.7% up from the last quarter of 22.5%, a result of management producing higher efficiencies and cost savings. It appears that LDK has a complex formula that increases their ASP when the cost of the polysilicon increases. On top of that, management was smart enough to sign long term contracts and keep an inventory of $656 million, mostly for polysilicon feedstock. As their in house poly production comes on line, they will reduce inventory to free up cash to finance more expansion.

    They have backorders for over 12GW of wafers which is about $20 to $30 BILLION in revenue depending on ASP (currently at about $2.40/watt). Today they added another 300MW deal that included a cash downpayment.

    From their conference call, I am guessing they will have 2008 EPS of about $3.50 which is about double what the analysts expect. This revenue is from wafer sales alone. They plan to increase wafer capacity from 1.2GW in 2008 to 2.2GW in 2009. Now consider that they expect gross margins to almost double when their in house poly in complete, you get forward EPS in the $10 to $15 range.

    * Lowest cost producer in the industry
    * Blow out earnings, 2 to 3 times estimates
    * 12GW in backorders
    * world's largest polysilicon plant on schedule
    * Forward PE in the low single digits
    * over 100% revenue growth per year
    * a renewable energy market that is expected to explode for the next 10 years.
    * A game plan that has customers financing expansion of their plants.
    * CEO Ziaofeng Peng, China's Entrepreneur of the Year
    * Short squeeze coming soon, short shares of more than 50% of available float

    In my opinion, a grossly undervalued stock with huge growth and huge earnings.


    Reply
  • commenter
    akapital
    Aug 13 05:58 AM
    How to Profit From China's Environmental Woes [view article]
    And don't forget CLWT, another China clean tech company Reply
  • commenter
    fxtrader07
    Aug 13 04:53 AM
    LDK Solar Nearly Doubles Estimates [view article]
    @Alpha 26: You seem to be very long opinion and bias and naked short facts. Go figure. Reply
  • commenter
    John Egan
    Aug 13 01:41 AM
    LDK Solar Nearly Doubles Estimates [view article]
    Logic doesn't seem to be a driving force for the market these days... But several large retailers ( Think Wallmart ) will be installing solar on their roofs this year to reap the tax benefits that expire before 2009 and may not be continued in the next few years.

    jegan ;-)     Reply

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