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- Colfax IPO Should Get Your Liquids Flowing [view article]
- Fed Bailout of Wall Street: Not Fair to the Commercial Banks [view article]
- Jump in Merrill’s Level III Assets Points to Continued Risk [view article]
- What Does MSFT/YHOO Debacle Mean for Their Bankers? [view article]
- The Worst Is Over ... Again ... And Again ... [view article]
- Still Too Early For Banks [view article]
- Sacrificial Bear [view article]
- Financial Stocks: Where Will They Go Once Investors Sober Up? [view article]
- Pfizer Fizzles, Fast Money Recap (4/18/08) [view article]
- Condos With Embedded Puts [view article]
- Under The Radar News - Monday [view article]
- The Worst Is Over Day I [view article]
loading ...Recent LEH Articles
- Jump in Merrill’s Level III Assets Points to Continued Risk
- Colfax IPO Should Get Your Liquids Flowing
- What Does MSFT/YHOO Debacle Mean for Their Bankers?
- The Worst Is Over ... Again ... And Again ...
- Sacrificial Bear
- Still Too Early For Banks
- Financial Stocks: Where Will They Go Once Investors Sober Up?
- Condos With Embedded Puts
- The Worst Is Over Day I
- Under The Radar News - Monday
- Full List of Articles »
Colfax IPO Should Get Your Liquids Flowing [view article]
CFX is a typical pump and dump. I bought this dog and was out the same day. I read the prospectus after I bought it (very very stupid). 1st time I have done this. I went with the summery info and the hype. Here is what I discovered.The inclusion of a 50m dollar payment from their insurance company for an asbestos judgment reimbursement presented a misleading EPS. Also no place in the prospectus other than the exact income sheet do they reference net income. They speak of sales and gross income only due to the fact that the price the underwriters placed on the deal is not supported by real (future) net income. They have made significant improvements in their overall sales revenues by acquisitions (Q1 estimates don't show an increase for 2008) However, their debt has increased each year and if you remove the special insurance payments from their income statement you see that they earned around $30M for 2007 or yearly EPS of $0.70. (2004,2005 and 2006 are all less) The current asbestos asset on the balance sheet does not coverage asbestos liabilities. On top of all this negative information the owners are taking this opportunities to sell many of their shares (always a bad sign I would think).
1. Many asbestos claims (I think the word asbestos is used 20 times in the prospectus)
2. Their insurance company has not wanted to pay the claims and therefore they have had to sue their insurance company cost millions in legal fees.
3. The main venture capitalist gets to sell his shares at a huge premium paid for by the IPO (I think its around $65/share).
4. The companies real EPS for 2007 for real operations and including some onetime insurance settlement is around $30M or eps of $0.70.
5. Many other insiders sold there shares see Sec recent filings.
6. Company has only grown through acquisitions which means more debt to grow.
7. The company is not paying down all of its short and long term debt.
8. Most of the IPO proceeds go to insiders trying to jump out of this burning ship.
The only good thing about this company is that they provide a real product to a real market but with little profits for 2007 and no real growth for 2008 based upon Q108 sales estimates included in the Prospectus.
Additionally, they have unlimited asbestos liability.
Best of luck - short sell this dirty dog and get some of your money back !!!!!! Reply
Fed Bailout of Wall Street: Not Fair to the Commercial Banks [view article]
Nice commentary and great industry insight.A note: Bear Stearns was not bailed out. In fact, the Fed refused to bail them out but granted unlimited cash to IBs in the future. Bear got a bad deal.
Perhaps we should all be wondering how it was that JPM got such a sweet deal - virtually no risk of loss and the world's most highly coveted clearing and prime brokerage business units from Bear, which I would estimate to be worth in excess of $18 billion.
Either way, both the commercial and IBs come out of this mess with the support of taxpayer dollars, which is debasing the dollar further, causing further inflation and higher oil prices.
I think a better title for your article might be "Fed Bailout of Wall Street Not Fair to Taxpayers."
I regard U.S. banks as the enemy of the American people, both commercial and investment alike. America is now more preoccupied with making interest than making products and the full effects of this disasterous strategy has only begun to surface.
Having worked on Wall Street, I've seen the fraud and corruption. And I left the industry because I did not want to be anywhere near that type of "business."
As a consumer, I have been exploited, lied to, and even had money stolen from me by one very large commerical bank. In fact, as it stands today, the commercial banking industry now joins the ranks of the worst run industries in America, along with the auto and airlines.
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Jump in Merrill’s Level III Assets Points to Continued Risk [view article]
MArk my words, GS will be below $120 by the end of this year. And I am putting my money where my mouth is, buying PUTS. ReplyJump in Merrill’s Level III Assets Points to Continued Risk [view article]
These companies are insolvent. Everyone knows this, and Bernanke isn't really fooling anyone by all the games and tricks to allow hiding this information. In any other corporate setting, this would be criminal and people would go to jail. Funny, when you're a banker with friends in high places, the rules that apply to everyone else don't apply to you. The last laugh will be on those who have been buying into this sucker rally in financials....Wave 3 is just around the corner. My hope is that the speculators will get the lesson they desperately need so that moral hazard can be put back in the bottle and we can get back to something resembling a "fair" market; not one that's dominated by manipulation and outright fraud. If Bernanke thinks he's a "depression" genius, I retort that look at how the world now views Greenspan (contempt). Bernanke will fare even worse after this whole alphabet soup mess he's created to monetize the bad bank debts and debauch the dollar. Is he kidding? Oil's at $122, and all commodities smell INFLATION! This guy's got to go. ReplyJump in Merrill’s Level III Assets Points to Continued Risk [view article]
Don't worry, I hear the fed is in the market for toxic waste. One more i-bank will go under by summer's end. ReplyWhat Does MSFT/YHOO Debacle Mean for Their Bankers? [view article]
Allen & Co. is a "boutique" focusing on younger companies, hence the strong rep in private placements. They have put together quite a strong business with emerging digital media, but they aren't always on the mega M&A deals like Goldman, Morgan. That's as much a function of their size. The bulge brackets have more resources to throw at a deal like this, plus i know that Morgan has had a tight relationship with MSFT for a while. Although Allen has been particularly close to News Corp and worked on the WSJ acquisition. It usually comes down to relationship. ReplyThe Worst Is Over ... Again ... And Again ... [view article]
ah yes, magic. the final bastion of religious nuts and financial pundits. shake the black box long enough and the crystal ball shows you what you most wanted to see. open your eyes amigo. if you're scared here, you're either really young or really pessimistic. ReplyStill Too Early For Banks [view article]
By the time this guy and Cramer decide to get bullish, the news will be good and smart money will be selling. Dumb money is last to find out. He went bearish on brokers in mid march near the lows. Some people never learn the lessons. The market is way ahead of the news, these guys follow the news. The worst part about this is that this guy is trying to feed off Cramers success. Don;t worry, he will self implode, the first televised version of a hari-kari ReplyThe Worst Is Over ... Again ... And Again ... [view article]
karchab..I sure as hell hope you're a trader..and a DAMN nimble one, or less those "gains" will melt like a snowball in Dante's Inferno.Great post, gaucho...*s*.
jan Reply
The Worst Is Over ... Again ... And Again ... [view article]
I've been buying financials for 3 months, and I am net ahead. And, since I've read so many disaster articles, I will invest more. Plus I've been buying homebuilders since 1/2/08, and am doing extremely well there. Let's see, whose opinion do I trust, the market's, or wannabefamous-SeekingAlpha writers, or shrieking "the sky is falling, the country is collapsing" posters on here? Hmmm, let me see.... Well, when financials are up like 200%, I'll be selling all my shares to you people, see ya then. ReplyThe Worst Is Over ... Again ... And Again ... [view article]
The best for last ! I read you all, but gaucho, you're the best. You know you're not publishing a formal paper so you don't waste your and our time on heavy duty calculations. No need. If you are half right, all my little financial shorts will work beautifully. I just wanted my position fortified by someone entertaining - - you fit the bill. ReplyThe Wind
Sacrificial Bear [view article]
Close enough for me, anyway. Quick prayer of thanks that I never remembered to buy BSC... and that I did remember to get more JPM when they were low... and that I got some for the kids when it was even lower! ReplyThe Worst Is Over ... Again ... And Again ... [view article]
Well boys I agree with the author on his efforts of a recipe for disaster. Ya gotta figure at least a 20% cost to the bank to foreclose. Your estimate of a 30% fall off may be correct but it will most likely overshoot by 20%. Now let’s add the arms not just the subprime and the Alt-A and the best of breed Option ARMS, no legs please(sic). Now let’s stir the pot with the layers of derivatives of over 400 TRILLION dollars with 45 Trillion in CDS exposure alone. Along with some tranches and other exotics such as VIEs of which CITI holds over 300 billion worth 27cents on the dollar.But were are not done yet lets add the Commercial real-estate which is very bloated on its own and many new buildings are standing empty.
Add a little spice with the leveraged takeovers where management got huge bonuses for a lemon deal. But what the hell let the bank eat it.
A pinch of defaulted car loans and the real secret ingredient of commercial loans over bloated for when the times were good.
As icing on the cake are the credit cards defaults as the economy melts down and people pay their mortgages with them.
Stir vigorously with all time high oil prices, only the best inflation adjusted, to add thickness to the stew.
AND we serve with no savings on the side the dish best served cold Cream LA DEPRESSION.
Bona appetite
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Still Too Early For Banks [view article]
"If we wait until all eight of your points are answered, we will be here a long time...."Agreed. Right now is still "catching the falling knife". IMHO, a few more quarters, some less negative housing inventory news, and I'm ready THEN to look at banks.
The economy should trend up when we get someone in the White House who isn't an alcoholic big-oil man.
Anyone have an opinion on VNQ-- commercial/rental REIT? Less scary than banks and builders, but is it ENOUGH less scary? Nice 5% yield.
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The Worst Is Over ... Again ... And Again ... [view article]
I'll agree that the CEO's of these banks are smarter than the author, but the author is dead on with his statement that these ceo's are salesmen. I recall a certain bear stearns ceo's comments a couple weeks ago..... Reply