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- Bust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle [view article]
- 25 Ways to Tell a Banking System Is Unsound [view article]
- Financials Are Having a Dead Cat Bounce [view article]
- Financial-Dip Buyers Forget To Ask What's Next [view article]
- The Facts Behind the Coming Congressional Mortgage Bailout Bill [view article]
- A Letter to Warren Buffett [view article]
- Financials Future Still Uncertain [view article]
- How High Leverage Has Brought Down the Whole Banking Industry [view article]
- Lehman Brothers, R.I.P [view article]
- SEC Shorting Restrictions: Are Some Banks Being Set Up? [view article]
- Mother of All Short Squeezes? [view article]
- The SEC's 'Sacred Cow' List: Where Are WaMu and Wachovia? [view article]
Recent LEH Articles
- UBS Analyst: Asset Sale Could Benefit Lehman Brothers
- Bust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle
- Bank Bailouts or Bull?
- 25 Ways to Tell a Banking System Is Unsound
- Financials Are Having a Dead Cat Bounce
- Financials Future Still Uncertain
- Financial-Dip Buyers Forget To Ask What's Next
- Crazy Dividends
- A 'Buy the Loser' Rally
- Looking for Action? Most Volatile Stocks
- Full List of Articles »
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Bust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle [view article]
Lucky,you must allow for different opinions..name calling does no one good...that said,I am also shorting the upticks.Problem is by the time I pay short term gains and what is left is eaten up by inflation and the dollar devaluation,what the hell have I got?Manipulation of the markets make it a dangerous game,at best.... ReplyBust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle [view article]
You weak naysayers here have responding with absolutely zero other than some lame name-calling. If you truly believe the substantive content of this article is "negative garbage' then surely you must do better. If the sky isn't falling, here's a dare: chime in about anything, anything at all, which hints at strength in this economy, Refute a point, any point. Do otherwise than any garden variety doofus flamer. My bet: you can't because you have nothing to say.Soley paid for by borrowing, the US has funded a $3-trillion invasion and occupation (already costing more than WWI in inflation-adjusted terms, and more than 12 years in Vietnam. It's funded by borrowing, since taxes on corporations and the richest Americans were cut down to nil.
The Amnerican economy is producing bupkus in terms of consumer goods, importing everythikng it buys. All paid fo by borrowing.
Take a look at a long-term graph of US housing prices and get a sense of how far this monster could correct. Then take a look at a monthly graph of the SP500 going back a few decades. It's a ginormous double-top formation. It's huge and you can't miss it, like staring up the waterwall of a tsunami.
So, have fun with your grubling and name-calling. It's the best you can come up with, since evidently you can come up with nothing otherwise ot refute the argyments therein. Invest based on your convictions, apparently so inverse to reality. You'll lose, becuase you're...losers.
Then tell me we've hit bottom and are in for a long, sustained economic turnaround. In the interim you'll find me shoring pathetic uptick rallies duinrg our colective freefall off this cliff.
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Fed-up
25 Ways to Tell a Banking System Is Unsound [view article]
Thanks Matty, I thought so, too! I guess it all boils down to the effect that comments like these have on the "great unwashed masses" who are currently involved with pennies in the market. Someone above commented about being down $1100. Try $100,000 a day.....all because of commentary that designed to frighten and impress...journalism's version of "shock and awe." I'm tired of it but I'm one very small voice in a very large and noisy wilderness. Thanks for the kudos and have a great day. Replye
25 Ways to Tell a Banking System Is Unsound [view article]
Lol Norm, fantastic comment. ReplyBust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle [view article]
Negative garbage Reply25 Ways to Tell a Banking System Is Unsound [view article]
I think norevenand works in the banking system, or hasbet heavily on it. Keep the info coming mish. Reply
Bust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle [view article]
You could not be more correct. The Treasury, the Fed and Congress are still to cowardly to say "enough is enough we will not trust the words of, or take the advice of the same folks who first said 'there is not problem', then 'the problems are contained' then 'the bottom is in sight' then 'recovery is near' only to then turn and ask for taxpayers to bailout their ever increasing dishonesty with taxpayer dollars. No, our leaders have sold our future and our dollar. They have filled out the Transfer of Title and have begun to transfer our former greatness overseas. Well, I guess the government we deserve believes what the bankers who created this mess tell and teach them... manipulate paper to support false profits... debase our once proud dollar and manipulate our markets by preventing them from pricing downside risk appropriately. ReplyFed-up
25 Ways to Tell a Banking System Is Unsound [view article]
Mike, I, unfortunately, agree with much of what you've said.There's a but.....you, like all the other doomsayers continue to throw numbers around that are, indeed, impressive, but only tend to cloud the issues and reinforce your own arguments.
Case one: "There is roughly $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits. $2.60 Trillion of that is uninsured. There is only $53 billion in FDIC insurance to cover $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits. Indymac will eat up roughly $8 billion of that."
Are you implying that ALL of the $2.6 trillion in uninsured deposits are at risk? Well you are and of course they're not. So don't even use that number. If 1% of those deposits are at risk, that's $26 billion. There's enough money to cover twice that much in FDIC according to your numbers.
That's only one example. I could go on.
I'm, frankly, not going to take the time to argue every point you make. It's fruitless and I DO agree with SOME of them. But I'm really tired of you and your ilk using huge numbers to predict an apocalyptic scenario that is very unlikely to take place. Yes, Fannie and Freddy have $5 trillion in mortgages or whatever on their books. So what???? Again, the vast, vast, vast majority of that indebtedness is with people like you, me, and your readers. We pay our bills. For those that don't, won't, or can't, well, then the rest of us have to carry the burden. THAT will NEVER change.
But the bottom line is: stop sensationalizing a situation that doesn't need to be sensationalized. Give us real numbers that count, use facts that aren't distorted, and stop screaming doom and gloom. We're resilient.
Let me equate what your kind is doing with a hopefully mythical example in your own life: "Y'know Mike, your wife leaves the house every day for at least eight hours.....that's an average of 250 times a year....that's a lot of guys for her to be sleeping with.....are there really that many motels in your neighborhood...?" Reality check: she's very, very, very likely to be at work.
Grow up and cut the crap.
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Financials Are Having a Dead Cat Bounce [view article]
sopocistudio,Previous comment wasn't meant to be critical of your trading strategy. All methods are good as long as you make money!
Previous comment was intended to point out to user55 and User 230527 the difference between an 'agenda' and a method. Apparently, both did not read your previous articles.
As previously stated, as far as we can tell, so far your in the black and wish you well and a long and prosperous trading career!
BTW, 'trader' is NOT a dirty word! Reply
itOver?
25 Ways to Tell a Banking System Is Unsound [view article]
You have to clear your ATM I.O.U.s with your employer. ReplyFinancial-Dip Buyers Forget To Ask What's Next [view article]
This is the third article I've seen claiming that Wells Fargo beat the Street profit numbers by accounting trickery. How can people get jobs or claim to be proficient in finance without any knowledge of accounting? What Wells Fargo did they described as deferring chargeoffs from 120 to 180 days. As spotO notes above this does not increase net earnings. The entry for posting a chargeoff is very simple. 1) debit Loan Loss Reserve (a credit balance account); 2) credit Loan Asset . Thats it. Both of these accounts are balance sheet accounts. There is no income statement effect. What you end up with if you defer this entry is a higher LLR, which is appropriate because you still have the nonperforming asset on your books. To call this moving the goalposts is ridiculous. It is changing the rules but it is not creating income or capital by trickery.A sophiscated analyst will look at something like the ratio of LLR to Nonperforming Loans. In Wells Fargo's case, because their ratio is greater than 1, the change actually makes this ratio look worse. For Wachovia or Washington Mutual, whose ratios are 84% and 87% respectively, this type of change would be more properly criticized, because it would have improved this widely reviewed ratio. Reply
25 Ways to Tell a Banking System Is Unsound [view article]
norevenand....feel free to post an original thought if you have one. as it is your post offers only the type of sorry-assed complaint you're bitching about.
Reply
Financials Are Having a Dead Cat Bounce [view article]
I can't/won't comment on the "abuse" issue, but see no problem for being selectively long and selectively short, within a given sector. If I were more of a "trader" than an "investor", I'd act on my feeling that while there's some REAL POS's in the financial sector...other firms, while bucking headwinds, have been unfairly tarred with the same brush, and represent value over a longer term. Replyense
The Facts Behind the Coming Congressional Mortgage Bailout Bill [view article]
Thinker68: Agree that greed and indifference is the root of the ills you've listed. Solutions? Establish expectations, consequences and follow through. "Follow through" , however you want to sugar-coat it, means assessing blame and exacting punishment, or at least do not shield from the natural consequences. I do not believe in bailouts as this sheilds the trangressor from their natural consequences and may even encourage the errant behavior. Further, it is just plain not fair to those of us who live more prudently and do without on a regualr basis so as not to overextend ourselves or incur too much risk. I know about a dozen families who have lost their homes to foreclosure. Everyone is a bit chagrined, admits they lived beyond their means and is not whining for a bailout, but would happily accept one if offered same as if they won the sweepstakes. Everyone has adjusted their living arrangements and is alive and well. They are moving on and forward. I worked for a mortgage bank. They knew full well what they were doing, and loved raking in the handsome profits and bonuses. The loan brokers loved their commissions and were giddy with the knowledge that they faced zero risks no matter what their loan applications contained. The investors who purchased the mortgage securities from the lenders "believed" the securities had little risk, without doing their due diligence in researching the risks. If you purchased a stock based on a hot tip you overheard on the commuter train, and it went south, wouldn't you expect to take a loss and kick yourself for not doing your research? Well, investors of mortgage securities are huge, professional portfolio and/or fund managers, with research staffs and volumes of data (resources not readily available to you and me). Furthermore, analyzing investments is their fulltime job. They knew better, but got lazy or overzealous. None of these folks (borrowers, lenders, investors) should be bailed out. If anything, they should be punished for screwing up the economy for the rest of us. If they go under, so be it. Something that is not working right should be dumped. and make way for new beginnings. The pain from the failures will no doubt be felt by those who failed, but justly so. Gotta clean out the infection so the wound can heal, right? Unfortunately, the pain will ripple out to all of us, and there's no avoiding that. But, hey, we prudent ones have grit and can survive anything.Let's get realistic on the gov't's bailout plans. The big investors and lenders are balling and wailing (albeit in private) to the gov't to help alleviate their pain. If gov't can stop the decline in home values, that would utimately help their portfolios. If the gov't can increase the money supply (by extending certain credit facilities), that would help their liquidity problems. If the gov't can keep interest rates low, that would help them raise needed capital and forestall futher foreclosures and further home value declines. See who the gov't is helping? (We are in for a huge in wallup of inflation, eventually.) Oh yes, this is election year, so let's make it look like we're concerned about poor little folks who were innocent victims because that strikes a chord with the common voter, and we need those votes.
I can take a little pain. Let's have no bailouts. Let whomever will fail, fail, and we'll all pick up the peices and move on. Moving on should include blaming the abuses where they occurred and put a control in place to minimize re-occrrence of the abuse. Reply
25 Ways to Tell a Banking System Is Unsound [view article]
Shedlock is a hack. He compiles information and presents it to the acolytes who are only too eager to suck it up because it's the kind of slop that appeals to their hack-selves.There's no original thought here nor an in-depth analysis of the current financial malaise. What good is rehashing old crap when you have nothing new and original to offer?
Move along. Nothing to see here. Reply