Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH)
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LEH Forum Topics
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- General Discussion on LEH
- Of October CDS Auctions and Helicopter Ben [view article]
- Don't Blame Deregulation For This Crisis, It's All About Lack of Regulation [view article]
- Browsing Through Lehman Emails [view article]
- Lehman's Troublesome Last Days [view article]
- A Letter to Warren Buffett [view article]
- Lehman's Lies [view article]
- Lehman’s Earnings (LEH) [view article]
- Credit Crisis Reality TV: Upcoming Hearings [view article]
- Why Mark to Market? [view article]
- Can Capitalism Survive Its Latest Entanglement With Socialism? [view article]
- Lehman's Collapse: Broader Economic Damage Unlikely [view article]
- Billion $ Question: What Will Mortgage Backed Securities Be Worth? [Housing Tracker] [view article]
loading ...Recent LEH Articles
- Don't Blame Deregulation For This Crisis, It's All About Lack of Regulation
- Of October CDS Auctions and Helicopter Ben
- Browsing Through Lehman Emails
- Lehman's Troublesome Last Days
- Lehman's Lies
- Credit Crisis Reality TV: Upcoming Hearings
- Why Mark to Market?
- RBC and CIBC: First in Canadian Mergers And Acquisitions
- Nixing 'Mark to Market' Won't Solve the Problem
- Do Dividend Cuts Offer a Clue to a Bank's Stability?
- Full List of Articles »
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The Harder They Fall - Cramer's Mad Money (9/15/08) [view article]
yes, cramer can and does say anything....including ignorant claptrap.anyone who watches this fool much less take his advise doesn't understand investing. Reply
Now What for Apple Investors? [view article]
@ reaganWell - for once we agree :)
You said:
"This economy is going to be so bleak that retailers are going to go bonkers when they see how terrible their sales numbers are going to be."
Now who has been running the economy for the last 8 years? Who deregulated the mortgage industry? Who spent $1 Trillion on a totally unnecessary war? So who do we have to thank for this Recession? The Republicans.
As for Brandon -
The terms "Neos, conservatives and repubs" are merely descriptive terms that people are usually willing to take on themselves (as I am happy to admit that I am a registered Democrat).
Your use of Socialist however was meant in a derogatory sense as a slur that basically has no meaning (basically anyone that Rush Limbaugh does not like). You are like reagan, when presented with rational arguments, you always reply with derogatory epithets, as if they are supposed to have any meaning. Simply put - you say "If you cannot disagree on a rational bases, then slur them with nasty names! Then you can ignore the point they are trying to make."
That is the Republican way. (And part of the reason we are in this mess!) Reply
Is It a Time for Panic or Profit? [view article]
Umm - picked up a little GS at the morning lows. I like PGF, a financial preferred ETF, half in at this point - it is low enough, but not calling a bottom - I still expect it will return 15-20% over a 5 year stretch on a return of spreads to normal. I like IBM at a 14 PE, which has gotten no respect whatever as it turned in consistent earnings growth and uses it to buy in stock. I like Dell on the current weakness, but only gradual, still an open issue. I like Best Buy and Nordstroms for retail exposure, great companies at PEs of 12 on recession discounts. As far as financials go, lots are cheap but not calling any bottoms - my shopping list includes nibbles on ING, Barclays, BAC via the MER deal, in addition to the bit of GS mentioned above.I also use diversified mutual funds inside a 401k, and moved 10% out of short bonds into US stocks today.
No one can call every turn, but you can see levels, and these are not nosebleed prices. Gradually accumulate as fear spreads, and hold long term.
That is what works for me - YMMV... Reply
Considine
The Nature of Risk [view article]
Flav: the chart of mine you asked about is from the earlier article I wrote on this topic--and there is a link to it right below the chart. The calculations come directly out of QPP's forward projections. The only inputs are historical price data--no credit ratings or fundamentals, though I showed earlier that QPP's projected tails map quite nicely to Moody's market implied ratings that are derived from Credit Default Swaps.QPP suggests that a portfolio of all individual stocks--even a fairly small number (<20) can provide a well-diversified portfolio that is near the efficient frontier--though commodities almost always improve the portfolio somewhat. In fact, a lot of my point with the first article on this topic was to show that a concentrated portfolio of stocks can be as well diversified and no more risky than many mutual funds that contain hundreds of stocks. BUT you must choose those stocks with care, understanding and being able to estimate their default risks.
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Considine
The Nature of Risk [view article]
Jmorace:Nothing in my analysis assumes an infinite holding period--where did you infer that?
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Now What for Apple Investors? [view article]
@blueblueherring, yes I meant NOT. I'm sure the meaning got across successfully. But thanks for the pointing out the error. I wish I had time to edit the articles, or perhaps someone to look the posts over. Maybe someday when I enter the nexus and my words influence the markets. ReplyNow What for Apple Investors? [view article]
Proud Liberal long on Apple. Not worried at all. Just wondering how low it will go so I can buy more. ReplyCredit Default Swaps: The Show Isn't Over [view article]
Maybe part of the answer would be to require derivatives trades to match up, much like short sales are supposed to (within 13 days, anyway), with the underlying. Let's say there is one share left after all the puts and shorts are taken into consideration. Why does it somehow make sense to let someone buy/sell a put for 100 shares, 99 of which are already "net" gone?I guess one of the big reason options models don't work all that well is that they fail to address demand/supply constraints. Reply
ing
Now What for Apple Investors? [view article]
you said "Let me tell you folks, I would bet the bank on those support levels. They are mediocre at best in this nasty market we’re in."did you mean "I would NOT bet the bank"? because of the mediocre supports.
-][ Reply
Options Trader: Tough-Decisions Tuesday [view article]
I've always been a big fan of these articles, but today Phil hit bottom. "DC Housing Bear" above said it all, what we need is fiscal discipline, not more of a socialistic society. Come on Phil! What are you thinking?? Are you panicking?One can't fix this mess with a silver bullet. Forest fires are good, they burn the useless brush and make the surviving trees stronger. Failure is a necessity for success. It's going to be painful, and we'll come out a lot better and stronger once this is over. It'll be a while, but it will be over.
All we need is for the government to ensure FAIR PLAY, the rest is prosperity for the fittest and bankrupcy for the unefficient. That's life.
Please, no more government bailouts!
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Credit Default Swaps: The Show Isn't Over [view article]
You've got to look behind the data, as some "indices" are acting entirely irrational, the ABX index trades as if the subprime loans will default at a rate over 100%, that's not even possible.An index is not the be all end all, and at many times can reflect trader's irrationalities as well. Something to monitor and be aware of, but not the true measure by any means. Reply
Liquidity or Solvency? Sometimes It's Hard to Tell [view article]
This is exactly the question that needs to be asked. ReplyLieberman
Let Lehman Fail [view article]
AIG.Next??? Reply
Now What for Apple Investors? [view article]
"If I and everyone else was in an all out effort to sell AAPL stock the net effect would be to push the price up."Really! You mean the short positions are eventually closed
You cannot escape the fact that net SELLING pushes the price DOWN, and by shorting the stock, you are SELLING.
I do not leave in a dream world; I am an investor, not a trader.
If you are convinced the stock should be going down either on its own merit or because the company's performance is being affected by economic factors, you should use Put Options, and not exacerbate an already bad situation by selling securities you do not own. Reply
Government Intervention? Here's a Scorecard [view article]
The big picture is that taxpayers have absorbed the mortgage-backed securities losses of China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc. Why would a government harm its own people to protect overseas investors from losing money?Because the government is utterly dependent on a continued supply of debt from those overseas investors. Your taxes, on the other hand, will be reliably collected by force. Only overseas creditors have the leverage to shut down the government if they wanted to.
Assets = Liabilities + Owner's Equity
Government = Debt + Taxpayer's Equity
This is what it looks like when a government goes bankrupt and liquidates the equity owners in order to pay off the liability owners. The liability owners have claim to the government and they will print cash and use the threat of cutting off funding to direct policy until they are made whole. Reply