China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (LFC)

All Comments on LFC

  • commenter
    alivinlee
    Oct 31 03:44 PM
    Two Points on the China Bubble [view article]
    That last sentence doesn't work for me. It's supposedly the answer to prevent a train wreck. Yet what exactly does Paul mean "... is to buy things. Now" Buy what? Other companies? Land? Commodoties? Buildings? Expansion? Other stocks? Merge? Doesn't that just make things worse? Reply
  • commenter
    rlirph
    Oct 31 02:42 PM
    It's More than Just Baidu: 51 Other Ways to Invest in China [view article]
    Since the purpose here is to disseminate different investment ideas I must point out that some of the data is incorrect.

    ACH has gone up 3.5 times this year. PE is nowhere around 5-6.
    LFC has almost doubled this year. The correct PE is somewhere north of 65.
    ZNH had been losing money annually until 12/06. Hang Seng Bank, subsidiary of Hong Kong Shanghai Bank listed the PE ratio of 246.

    It seems that data from ACH and LFC came out of Yahoo Finance.
    I do not know why they listed ACH with such a low PE. I know that
    Yahoo did not update the fact that LFC had splitted 2.67:1 last December even though their stock price chart is correct.

    SNP with a PE of 1400+ is a suspect too. It is just an oil company although a small one by China's standard.
    Reply
  • commenter
    evilll
    Oct 30 02:51 PM
    Two Points on the China Bubble [view article]
    Another fact, the majority shares of the big companies like PTR or LFC are non-floating, government-owned shares ( I don't have the number, but believe that less than 20% of the shares are currently publicly held for most of the big companies out there). Reply
  • commenter
    User 233
    Oct 23 03:26 PM
    Best, Worst Performing Chinese ADRs YTD [view article]
    here is the link:

    chinabizfocus.com     Reply
  • commenter
    JW
    Oct 08 11:42 PM
    Is the Chinese Stock Market a Bubble? If So, How to Invest? [view article]
    that's to say, either way, you're making money out of it? Reply
  • commenter
    TechInvestor
    Oct 08 11:41 PM
    Is the Chinese Stock Market a Bubble? If So, How to Invest? [view article]
    Why in the world would you title the article - how to profit if there is a China Bubble - if your only conclusion is to maximize your value cushion with a few stocks that have larger Shanghai premiums if it collapses???
    Not exactly a profit-making formula.     Reply
  • commenter
    Steven Towns
    Sep 23 10:54 PM
    My Website
    Earnings Quality Issues for NYSE China Listings [view article]
    Well, Forbes magazine (Oct. 1) picked up on the story in a piece entitled, "Made (Poorly in China)."

    China Petroleum & Chemical [Sinopec] (SNP) is said to have a "board packed with inside cronies; loads of deals done with related government entities."

    PetroChina (PTR) -- "Stretching payments to creditors; negative net working capital."

    China Life Insurance (LFC) -- "Mortality projections wishful; accounts under Communist accounting standards appear to lack audit opinion."

    Yanzhou Coal Mining (YZC) -- "Lowballing of doubtful accounts may indicate earnings manipulation; environmental liabilities possible time bomb."

    Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (SHI) -- "FCF negative in 2006; new reserves for doubtful accounts declining."

     Reply
  • commenter
    omooc
    Sep 17 08:45 AM
    My Website
    Earnings Quality Issues for NYSE China Listings [view article]
    So, unable to gain satisfaction from NYSE, an outfit, of which I have never heard before, vented its dissatisfaction by spreading rumors. Be more responsible. omooc Reply
  • commenter
    omooc
    Jul 19 09:40 AM
    My Website
    10 China Stocks To Consider Buying Now [view article]
    Thoughtful presentation, well done. On the two stocks added, I wonder whether the airline mentioned has international tie-ups. Also, it would help if you could just give the revised line-up (without comment) so a reader would know the entire list without leaving this article. (In fact, I had problem linking to the article mentioned). omooc Reply
  • commenter
    FIG trader
    Jul 05 05:19 PM
    My Website
    Insurance Stocks: Shooting Down An Overwrought Valuation Metric [view article]
    Spehar's argument (in his 6/28 piece) that using a DCF (intrinsic value) model would have generated higher returns (versus p/e or regressed ROE-price/book) is a bit specious. Over longer periods of time (he selected 2002 to 2006), using DCF (i.e or FCF_free cash flow or distributable dividends from insurance subs) and earnings should be the same, the difference is only a time lag between stat and GAAP earnings, for the most part. He is a card carrying member of the sellside set and one in good standing. He well knows that analysts will trot out any nonsense to justify their price targets (aggressive or too conservative), regardless of what conviction they have in the underlying assumptions. Its conviction on the stock (and management) that drives the recommendations and gets analysts to tweak the estimates and projections north or south. Who would naively believe that analysts have the know how (absent management guidance) to make detailed Statutory (i.e cash earnings) assumptions, given limited quarterly availability of data? Why he would attempt to make a point where none needs to be made is beyond me. The reason some people (I for one) like to focus on ROE/price book has more to do with potential risk/reward than trying to figure out which "supposed strategy" works better over time. The variability in book value for insurers from quarter to quarter is minimal, while a big earnings miss distorts the whole p/e measuring mechanism, without affecting the price/book materially (it does affect that quarters ROE which is why smoothed ROEs over numerous quarters are better) Lets take Ed Spehar's only ""sell" rating UNM, a rating I believe he has consistently maintained through thick and thin (from mid teens to 11 and all the way up thropugh to the current 26). It has had a low price book (for years it traded at a discount), with a modestly rising ROE, which he assumed couldn't be increased. The idea for analysts was to identify the transition point for this company, and the beginning of the ascent in the forward ROE or EPS. If you did the price/book would follow higher. Those that did were rewarded. Or lets take another favorite stock with a high price/book,uh......FMD comes to mind first. Its not that the DCF, P/E or Price/book strategies are better. Its that nobody knows where 2008/2009/2010 ROEs will be, but there is a unusually high probability that the ROE would be lower, and that the price/book would follow. Hence my January short call (historic was the way I put it) Reply
  • commenter
    long term
    shipping
    investor
    Jun 04 08:09 PM
    Anatomy of a Chinese Bubble: A Checklist For Spotting Bubble Tops [view article]
    The analysis is very informative.
    A correction in the range between 25 to 35 percent will be healthy for the Shanghai market in the long run. A bubble is unlikely to occur with the recent measures (plus any future ones, if required) introduced by the state. Major ADR shares currently listed on NYX (such as CHL, LFC, Petrochina...) appear to be trading on not very expensive valuations based on 2008 earnings and therefore the impact on these ADRs will be minimal when the correction takes place in China.     Reply
  • commenter
    Nidhi
    Jun 04 04:10 PM
    My Website
    Anatomy of a Chinese Bubble: A Checklist For Spotting Bubble Tops [view article]
    Interesting ..

    creating-wealth.blogsp.../     Reply
  • commenter
    aindovina
    Jun 04 12:57 AM
    Anatomy of a Chinese Bubble: A Checklist For Spotting Bubble Tops [view article]
    Thomas,
    Where do you get a PE of 73 for LFC? It closed at $47.36 Friday with TTM earnings of $4.68 and estimated 12/08 earnings of $2, for a forward PE of 23. Maybe not great for an insurance company, but not 73 either.

    finance.yahoo.com/q?s=...

    I admittedly don't understand the various shares classes for Chinese stocks, but valuations seem good.     Reply
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