Oct. 14, 2014, 5:02 PM| Comment!
Oct. 13, 2014, 5:35 PM
Oct. 10, 2014, 1:42 PM
- Following Microchip's warning and related prediction of a chip industry correction, Goldman's James Covello thinks there's 15%-20% downside in industry names.
- Covello, who lowered his industry view to Cautious in August: "The last time Microchip negatively preannounced was October 15, 2012 (3% sales miss). Between October 1 and December 31, Street 2013 sales estimates for the Semi group were revised down 6% on average."
- He adds several datapoints suggest the industry has been overheating. Among them: Semi revenue growth has outpaced end-market growth, and supply chain inventory dollars rose 3% more than their 3-year average in Q2.
- "Nobody will be spared," predicts Hedgeye's Craig Berger. Benchmark's Gary Mobley observes 5 of the 6 chip stocks to have made Q3 pre-announcements have thus done so to the downside.
- Worth noting: Mobile chipmaker Silicon Motion (SIMO -8.9%) is the one chipmaker to have positively pre-announced. It might not be a coincidence that Microchip has relatively low mobile exposure.
- Observing U.S. macro data remains positive even as China and Europe soften, Longbow's JoAnne Feeney remains bullish long-term on select names. However, she has cut her short-term rating on Linear (LLTC -3.8%) to Sell, and removed IDT (IDTI -7.1%) from her trading long list.
- In addition to the names previously mentioned, the following chip stocks are seeing steep losses: AMD -5.1%. FCS -13.6%. NXPI -11.2%. CODE -11%. LSCC -9.6%. SIMG -8.1%. IPHI -7.7%. ISIL -9.5%. CY -6.9%. RMBS -7.1%. QUIK -5.7%. SQNS -5.1%. IMOS -6.5%.
- Foundries and contract manufacturers are also selling off: TSM -3.9%. UMC -2%. SMI -2.4%. SANM -11.7%. FLEX -6.8%. JBL -4%.
- Chip ETFs: SOXX, SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
Oct. 9, 2014, 5:44 PM
- Several microcontroller and analog/mixed-signal IC vendors are lower AH after Microchip warned of weak calendar Q3 sales. TXN -2.2%. ADI -2.2%. LLTC -2.5%. ATML -1.6%. ONNN -1.4%.
- Notably, the microcontroller maker said it believes "another [chip] industry correction has begun and that this correction will be seen more broadly across the industry in the near future."
- Microchip's diversified customer base and recognition of distributor revenue based on sell-through rather than sell-in (unlike many peers) lead it to be seen as a canary in the coal mine for the industry.
Sep. 26, 2014, 2:20 PM
- Arguing catalysts "have been slower to materialize" than expected, Morgan Stanley's Craig Hettenbach has pulled Linear (LLTC +0.3%) from his company's Best Ideas list.
- Nonetheless, Hettenbach is keeping an Overweight rating, and declares the analog/mixed-signal IC vendor to be a core holding due to "its leading power management franchise, strong growth, and superior profitability/returns." He thinks Linear can post 10% revenue growth in an environment of 2%-3% GDP growth.
- Shares have missed out on this year's chip stock rally.
Jul. 23, 2014, 5:41 PM
Jul. 23, 2014, 12:25 PM
- Among the year's best tech performers, chip stocks are selling off (SOXX -1.8%) on an up day for the Nasdaq following weak numbers from FPGA giant Xilinx (XLNX -14.5%).
- Xilinx missed FQ1 revenue estimates by over $18M, and also guided for FQ2 revenue to be well below consensus. The company blamed the FQ1 shortfall on soft defense and wireless sales. BMO and BofA/Merrill have downgraded Xilinx; the former thinks Xilinx's 28nm share might be peaking.
- Xilinx stated on its CC (transcript) the wireless weakness was mostly due to soft 28nm chip sales to Chinese 4G base station vendors; Chinese 4G rollouts have long been viewed as a catalyst for both Xilinx and Altera (ALTR -4.7%). Aerospace/defense sales were hurt by program timing issues.
- Meanwhile, switch/router vendor Juniper offered light Q3 guidance to go with a Q2 beat. The company noted on its CC (transcript) "market dynamics" for U.S. carriers, including M&A activity, are affecting project rollouts.
- Also: Analog/mixed-signal IC vendor Linear (LLTC -4.1%) is selling off in spite of beating FQ4 estimates and guiding in-line (8%-11% Y/Y FQ1 rev. growth vs. 9.1% consensus).
- Notable decliners: FSL -5.3%. IDTI -6.4%. EZCH -3.3%. PMCS -4.3%. LSCC -6.8%. CAVM -4.7%. SMTC -4.1%. ATML -3.2%. TQNT -3.1%. RFMD -2.9%. IRF -2.9%.
- Qualcomm, NXP, TriQuint, and Cirrus Logic report after the bell.
- Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
Jul. 22, 2014, 5:07 PM| Comment!
Jul. 21, 2014, 5:35 PM
Jun. 9, 2014, 10:36 AM
- A slew of chip stocks are rallying following Analog Devices' (ADI +5.9%) $2B deal to acquire RFIC vendor Hittite Microwave.
- The purchase is part of an M&A wave that has hit the semiconductor industry over the last 12 months, as chipmakers try to gain scale, cut opex, and grow their cross-selling opportunities by consolidating. Other deals: RF Micro/TriQuint, Avago/LSI, Microchip/ISSC.
- ADI, which shares many telecom equipment, defense/aerospace, and automotive clients with Hittite, predicts Hittite's RF, microwave, and millimeter wave ICs will complement its RF and signal-conversion (ADC/DAC) products.
- Several RF and analog/mixed signal chipmakers are higher, but they're not the only gainers: RFMD +1.8%. TQNT +1.8%. PSMI +2.5%. LLTC +1.6%. MSCC +2.1%. IDTI +3.8%. ATML +3.4%. IRF +1.4%. SIGM +3.9%. AMCC +3.8%.
- Chip ETFs: SOXX, SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
Apr. 15, 2014, 5:43 PM
- Linear (LLTC) expects FQ4 revenue to grow 2%-6% Q/Q; the midpoint of that range is below a consensus for 5% growth. Book-to-bill was above 1, and bookings rose Q/Q for all of the chipmaker's top markets.
- Gross margin rose 90 bps Y/Y in FQ3 to 75.7%, and opex rose 6% to $102.8M (less than rev. growth of 10.6%). $10.9M was spent on buybacks.
- LLTC -0.3% AH. FQ3 results, PR.
Apr. 15, 2014, 5:02 PM
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