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Tuesday, Dec 312:49 PMIDC lowers 2013 PC forecast, now sees 10.1% shipment drop
Tuesday, Dec 312:49 PM| 5 Comments
- After forecasting in August global PC shipments would fall 9.7% Y/Y in 2013, IDC now estimates they'll drop 10.1% to 314.2M. Consumer shipments are expected to drop 15%, and commercial shipments (tend to have higher ASPs) 5%.
- Interestingly, emerging markets (shipments -11% to 182.1M) are expected to see a slightly larger drop than "mature markets" (-8% to 132M). There have been signs of stabilizing demand in the U.S. and certain other developed markets.
- IDC's forecast cut comes even though the firm thinks shipment declines moderated to a 7.6% Y/Y clip in Q3, after dropping 11.4% in Q2. In addition, H-P (HPQ +0.8%) just reported a mere 2% Y/Y PC sales drop for its Oct. quarter, and Intel (INTC -1%) stated the PC market is "beginning to show signs of stabilization," albeit while providing disappointing 2014 guidance.
- IDC expects shipments to drop another 3.8% in 2014 before "turning slightly positive in the longer term." It foresees 2017 shipments (naturally hard to predict) of 305.1M - barely above 2008 levels.
- For reference, IDC has predicted smartphone shipments will rise 39% this year to 1.01B (over 3x PC shipments), and tablet shipments will rise 58% to 227M (72% of PC shipments).
- Affected companies: MSFT, STX, WDC, MU, AMD, NVDA, LNVGY
Friday, Nov 152:58 AMSamsung extends smartphone crown
Friday, Nov 152:58 AM| 75 Comments
- Samsung (SSNLF, SSNGY) widened its lead over Apple (AAPL) in the smartphone market in Q3, with Gartner estimating that Samsung sold 80.36M smartphones vs 55M a year earlier and Apple 30.33M vs 24.62M.
- The Korean company's market share held steady at 32.1% while Apple's dropped to 12.1% from 14.3%.
- Overall, the number of smartphones sold increased to 250.2M from 171.65M.
- By operating system, Google's (GOOG) Android accounted for 205M devices, or 81.9% of the market, Apple's iOS 30.33M, or 12.1%, and Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows 8.9M, or 3.6%.
- The total number of cellular phones sold rose to 455.6M from 431M. Samsung was in first place with 117M units and Nokia (NOK) second with 63M. (PR)
Thursday, Nov 73:24 AMLenovo continues to grow PC sales as net profit jumps 36%
Thursday, Nov 73:24 AM| 1 Comment
- Lenovo's (LNVGF) FQ2 net profit rose 36% to $219.7M and exceeded analyst expectations of $201M, lifted by higher margins in China and increased sales of smartphones.
- Revenue climbed 13% to $9.77B and beat consensus of $9.41B.
- Lenovo's Chinese margins grew to 6.8% in fiscal H1 from 6.1% a year earlier, due to higher average selling prices and cost controls. However, margins dropped in the Americas region.
- Lenovo's FQ2 world-wide PC shipments edged up 2% vs a sector-wide decline of 7.6%.
- Smartphone shipments surged over 78% to 12.3M units.
- Lenovo intends to seek acquisitions to help its expansion. (PR)
Wednesday, Oct 3011:15 PMTablet growth slows in Q3, Apple loses more share ahead of iPad launches
Wednesday, Oct 3011:15 PM| 13 Comments
- IDC estimates 47.6M tablets were shipped in Q3, +7% Q/Q and +36.7% Y/Y. The Y/Y growth rate represents a major slowdown from Q2's 60% (never mind Q1's 142%), and is below JPMorgan's forecast for 54% growth. It also puts IDC's September forecast for 227.4M 2013 shipments (+58% Y/Y) in doubt.
- Apple (AAPL), which just reported 14.1M Sep. quarter iPad shipments, is assigned a 29.6% share, down from 40.2% a year earlier. In July, IDC gave Apple a 32.4% Q2 share, down all the way from 60.3% a year earlier.
- A pending iPad refresh played a role in the decline - IDC expects "robust" iPad shipment growth in Q4 - but an industry mix shift towards cheap ~7" Android (GOOG) tablets (many of them from white-label OEMs) was also a major factor.
- Samsung (SSNLF, SSNGY) is believed to have shipped 9.7M tablets, good for a 20.4% share (+800 bps Y/Y). IDC thinks Nexus 7 OEM Asus shipped 3.5M tablets and held a 7.4% share, and that Lenovo (LNVGY) shipped 2.3M tablets and held a 4.8% share.
- IDC's numbers come two days after Strategy Analytics estimated smartphone shipments rose 45% Y/Y in Q3 to 251M. The two sets of figures suggest the smartphone market was 5.3x as large as the tablet market on a unit basis. That ratio will probably narrow in Q4, given the iPad refresh and the popularity of tablets as Christmas presents.
Monday, Oct 286:36 PM5S backlog still significant, Strategy Analytics releases smartphone estimates
Monday, Oct 286:36 PM| 9 Comments
- There's still a significant backlog of iPhone 5S (AAPL) orders, even though supplies are rising every week, says Tim Cook on the CC. Likewise, though Cook is upbeat about FQ1 iPad sales, he says it isn't clear retina iPad Mini supplies (reportedly constrained) will match demand during the quarter.
- Also: 1) Greater China sales (+6% Y/Y) benefited from an earlier Chinese iPhone launch. 2) Cook says education market sales topped $1B for the first time, and estimates Apple has a 94% tablet share in the vertical. 3) DRAM and NAND flash memory costs rose in FQ4. DRAM costs are expected to rise again in FQ1, while NAND costs are expected to be flat and other commodity costs lower.
- Strategy Analytics has plugged Apple's FQ4 iPhone sales (33.8M) into its spreadsheet and released its Q3 smartphone estimates. The firm believes industry shipments rose 45% Y/Y to 251M, after rising 47% in Q2.
- Apple, whose iPhone units rose 26% Y/Y, is given a 13.4% unit share, -220 bps Y/Y. Samsung (SSNLF, SSNGY) is assigned a 35% share, +210 bps, and estimated to have shipped 88.4M smartphones. Huawei (5.1%), LG (LGEIY, 4.8%), and Lenovo (LNVGY, 4.3%) round out the top-5.
- AAPL -0.1% AH. Apple deferred revenue remarks have calmed investors worried about FQ1 gross margin guidance.
- CC live blogs: I, II. More on Apple.
Friday, Oct 181:58 AMLenovo likely to buy parts of BlackBerry only - Reuters
Friday, Oct 181:58 AM| 11 Comments
- Lenovo (LNVGF.PK) will probably just try to acquire parts of BlackBerry (BBRY) rather than the whole company, Reuters reports, due to regulatory concerns.
- The news agency's article is in contrast to a WSJ report that said that the Chinese computer maker is "actively considering a bid for all of BlackBerry."
- Reuters didn't specify what the regulatory concerns are but did cite experts who believe that BlackBerry's secure network would probably be sold to a North American buyer because of security issues, especially as the U.S. government is a major customer.
Thursday, Oct 173:49 PMMore on Lenovo/BlackBerry
Thursday, Oct 173:49 PM| 69 Comments
- Sources tell the WSJ Lenovo (LNVGY.PK) is "actively considering a bid for all of BlackBerry (BBRY +0.2%)," not just parts of the company, as is reportedly the case for other tech names.
- "Goodbye U.S. gov't contracts," quips Dan Primack. Given the roadblocks extended to Huawei and ZTE by U.S. politicians and regulators, and general concerns about hacking incidents blamed on the Chinese government, it's safe to assume any Lenovo bid for the whole of BlackBerry would receive intense scrutiny.
- Earlier: Lenovo reportedly signs NDA with BlackBerry
Thursday, Oct 172:48 PMLenovo reportedly signs NDA with BlackBerry
Thursday, Oct 172:48 PM| 36 Comments
- Dow Jones reports Lenovo (LNVGY.PK) has signed an NDA to look at BlackBerry's (BBRY +1.6%) books. The report comes two days after one from Bloomberg indicating an NDA has been signed with Cerberus.
- Lenovo has been featured in BlackBerry M&A speculation more than once this year, in part due to comments from Lenovo execs. But the Chinese PC/smartphone vendor's relatively small market cap could be an issue, as might national security concerns (should Lenovo want to acquire BlackBerry's network).
- BlackBerry has rallied a bit on the report.
Wednesday, Oct 161:18 PMIntel follows market higher post-earnings; servers, mobile, margins in focus
Wednesday, Oct 161:18 PM| Comment!
- After opening slightly lower, Intel (INTC +0.9%) is rising on an up day for equities in the wake of a Q3 beat that was accompanies by healthy margins, light Q4 guidance, another capex cut, cautiously optimistic PC industry commentary, and news of a Broadwell manufacturing delay. B. Riley's upgrade could be helping.
- Jefferies (Buy) likes the fact Intel's enterprise PC CPU sales are stabilizing,. The firm remains optimistic about Intel's long-term ability to use its manufacturing edge to take mobile share, as does FBR.
- However, Needham (Hold) doesn't like the Q4 guidance and the Broadwell delay. The firms also claims Intel's server CPU sales still missed its Q3 estimate by $100M, and thinks the business could come short of a company target for 10%+ 2013 growth.
- Brian Krzanich mentioned on the CC Intel's NAND flash sales rose 20% Y/Y, and promised Q4 will see the launch of $99 Atom tablets, $349 Atom convertibles, and $299 low-power Haswell notebooks. His remarks come as Lenovo (LNVGY.PK) launches the Miix, an $299, 8", Bay Trail/Windows 8 tablet that has Office Home and Student 2013 built-in.
- CFO Stacy Smith admitted Intel's mobile processor push will impact ASPs, but also declared Bay Trail to have "a much better cost structure" than Intel's low-end Celeron CPUs.
Wednesday, Oct 94:35 PMIDC: PC shipments fell 7.6% Y/Y in Q3, better than feared
Wednesday, Oct 94:35 PM| 9 Comments
- While the number isn't pretty, it's notably better than the 11.4% drop IDC estimated for Q2, as well as the firm's respective Q3 and full-year forecasts of -9.5% and -9.7%. Easier comps helped out a bit (shipments fell 8.6% Y/Y a year ago), as did "channel intake of Windows 8.1-based systems" in September. (PR)
- As was the case in Q2, U.S. and enterprise were areas of strength. U.S. shipments only fell 0.2%, and enterprise volumes saw a "slight uptick." But tablet cannibalization led Asia-Pac (exc. Japan) shipments to fall 8.8%. EMEA declined in-line with expectations, while Japan outperformed.
- The mix shift is a positive for H-P (HPQ - 27% U.S. share vs. 17.1% global share), Intel (INTC - higher ASPs), and Microsoft (MSFT - higher ASPs and less piracy). It hurts Lenovo (LNVGY.PK), but the Chinese firm was still the market's top vendor, and saw its global share rise 160 bps Y/Y to 17.3%.
- H-P was #2; its share rose 130 bps. #3 Dell, which has gotten more aggressive with its pricing, saw its share rise 90 bps to 11.7%.
- Apple's (AAPL) U.S. PC share, which has been rising in recent years, fell 140 bps to 11.6%; the enterprise mix shift and pending MacBook Pro/Mac OS X refreshes likely played roles.
- Other affected industry names: AMD, NVDA, MU, STX, WDC.
- Update: Gartner thinks shipments fell 8.6% Y/Y.
Monday, Sep 3010:04 PMSterne Agee: No back-to-school boost for PCs this year
Monday, Sep 3010:04 PM| 11 Comments
- "We believe back to school PC demand has been virtually absent," says Sterne Agee's Vijay Rakesh in a critical note on Intel (INTC). Moreover, Sterne thinks high inventories and weak demand are pointing to the absence of a holiday season sales boost (normally 5%-7%) as well.
- Rakesh now sees PC sales falling 10.7% Y/Y in Q4, worse than a prior forecast for a 9.6% drop. He also questions the ability of smartphone/tablet CPU sales to offset declining PC CPU sales for Intel, given notebook processors typically sell for several times as much as their mobile counterparts. Oddly enough (given Nokia's limited smartphone share), Rakesh also suggests the Microsoft-Nokia deal is a negative for the chip giant.
- In August, IDC lowered its 2013 PC shipment growth forecast to -9.7% from a prior -7.8%. The firm estimates PC shipments fell 11.4% Y/Y in Q2 (Gartner is at 10.9%), and has predicted tablet shipments (aided by seasonality) will exceed PC shipments in Q4.
- Other PC industry names in the crosshairs: MSFT, HPQ, AMD, NVDA, MU, STX, WDC, LNVGY.PK.
Thursday, Sep 261:39 PMChina Mobile poster leak suggests iPhone launch on tap
Thursday, Sep 261:39 PM| 30 Comments
- A Chinese-language site (translation) has leaked an image for a China Mobile (CHL +0.5%) poster advertising the iPhone 5S and 5C (AAPL +0.6%). The posters make note of the 5S/5C's support for CHL's TD-LTE 4G network.
- One source tells the site sales could start in November, following testing in September/October.
- The WSJ reported on Sep. 6 Apple is getting ready to ship iPhones to China Mobile, and Chinese regulators recently gave the iPhone a green light to run on CHL's network (unofficially, many of the carrier's subs already use iPhones, courtesy of grey-market purchases).
- IDC estimates the iPhone only had a 5% share of the Chinese smartphone market in Q2, thanks in part to its premium pricing in a market where per capita GDP (in absolute dollars) is a little above $6K. Samsung (SSNLF.PK, SSNGY.OB) is assigned an 18.3% share, and local Android vendors Lenovo (LNVGY.PK), Coolpad, ZTE (ZTCOY.PK), and Huawei shares of 12.6%, 11%, 8.8%, and 8.7%, respectively.
- Also: IDC thinks smartphones with 5"+ displays will account for nearly 20% of 2013 Chinese sales, and 50% of 2017 sales. Apple, which has faced growing calls to offer a larger iPhone, is reportedly thinking of offering phones with displays ranging from 4.8"-6".
Saturday, Sep 79:00 AMLenovo in attack mode on mobile
Saturday, Sep 79:00 AM| 20 Comments
- With PC's now in "protect" mode, the "attack" part of Lenovo (LNVGY.PK) CEO Yang Yuanqing's "Protect and Attack" strategy has shifted to tablets and smartphones. Yang has reorganized the company to address "attack markets" head-on, and believes even gorillas Apple (AAPL) and Samsung (SSNLF.PK, SSNGY.OB) aren't invincible.
- "We know the playbook; we've done it on PCs," says Gerry Smith who has seen it up close as a former Dell exec, and now heads Lenovo's Americas group. "We can attack on scale. We'll attack on cost efficiency and speed. We can attack these guys from the bottom, and put a lot of pressure on them from a product portfolio, pricing, time-to-market perspective."
- Lenovo produced 11.4M smartphones and 1.5M tablets in FQ1, a triple and a quadruple, respectively, from a year earlier. The company this week launched a new flagship premium phone, the Vibe X, and plans a number of other new products before year's end.
- "What P/E would investors pay for a 'Chinese Apple,'" asks bullish portfolio manager James Weir. He notes the company continues to gain market share in flat PC markets, but the potential for "rerating" is in mobile. "If Lenovo can keep growing this, they can earn the right to be rated with Apple and Samsung as a sexy consumer electronics player, not just a PC box seller."
- SA Pro's Stephen Simpson is of a similar mind about Lenovo's opportunity in mobile.
Wednesday, Aug 2812:14 PMBlackBerry jumps on fresh Lenovo rumors
Wednesday, Aug 2812:14 PM| 53 Comments
- Rumors Lenovo (LNVGY.PK) will make a $17/share bid for BlackBerry (BBRY +5.3%) are fueling a rally in the latter company's shares.
- BlackBerry shares have already soared more than once this year on Lenovo speculation (I, II) that didn't pan out. But that was before the company began formally evaluating "strategic alternatives" widely believed to include a sale.
- The fact Lenovo's market cap only stands at $10B means acquiring BlackBerry in full wouldn't be easy, should the Chinese PC/smartphone giant be interested.
Wednesday, Aug 214:19 AMApple's iPad losing market share in China
Wednesday, Aug 214:19 AM| 11 Comments
- The iPad's market share in China tumbled to 28% of the computer-tablet market in Q2 from 49% last year, IDC estimates, affected by the growth of cheaper devices running Google's Android. Shipments of the Apple (AAPL) product rose to 1.48M units from 1.15M.
- Samsung's (SSNLF.PK) share increased to 11% from 6% as deliveries surged to 571,000, from 133,000.
- Third-placed Lenovo (LNVGF.PK) experienced a drop in share to 8% from 9% even as shipments more than doubled to 413,000, from 204,000.
Monday, Aug 1912:20 PMLenovo to more than double in-house notebook production in 2014: Digitimes
Monday, Aug 1912:20 PM| 1 Comment
- Lenovo (LNVGY.PK -2.5%) will move to more than double in-house production of its notebooks, Digitimes reports. It aims to produce 60% of its notebooks itself in 2014 (from 25% in 2013), reducing Compal's outsourcing production to 30% from 50% currently and Wistron's to 10% from 20%.
- A large part of production will occur in Hefei, China, where Lenovo operates a joint venture with Compal.
- A Digitimes source stated that pricing competition in the notebook supply chain could intensify and erode profits as Lenovo and Samsung move to produce more of their notebooks in-house. Lenovo will procure components directly from China-based suppliers rather than through Taiwanese Original Design Manufacturers.
- Previous: Despite beat, risk lingers for Lenovo
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Seppo Sahrakorpi:: For FY12/13, Lenovo's PC shipments grew 10.2% year-over-year, compared to an overall industry decline of 8.1% during this same period.