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Thu, Jul. 9, 10:02 PM
- IDC estimates global PC shipments tumbled to 66.1M in Q2, falling at a sharper Y/Y clip than Q1's 6.7% and about 1% faster than expected. Gartner is slightly less harsh, estimating shipments fell 9.5% to 68.4M.
- Factors blamed for the decline: Inventory reductions ahead of the Windows 10 launch (set for July 29), a strong dollar (has led to higher overseas prices), and tough Y/Y comps caused by the 2014 boost in business PC sales caused by the end of Windows XP support. With tablet sales under pressure as well, tablet cannibalization is less of a factor than before ... but rising smartphone/tablet usage still appears to be taking a toll on PC upgrade rates.
- Gartner sees full-year shipments falling 4.4%. IDC still expects low-to-mid single-digit declines in 2H15, before volumes stabilize in future years. It sees the Windows 10 launch going "relatively well," but cautions Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) decision to provide free upgrades to Windows 7/8 users will limit its impact on PC sales.
- Continuing a recent trend, market leaders grabbed share from smaller rivals. IDC estimates #1 Lenovo's (OTCPK:LNVGY) share rose to 20.3% from 19.4% a year ago, #2 HP's (NYSE:HPQ) to 18.5% from 18.2%, and #3 Dell's to 14.5% from 14%. Acer (OTC:ASIYF) and Asus (OTC:AKCPF) are respectively given 6.6% and 6.5% shares
- Curiously, IDC has Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) ranked #4 globally, with its share rising to 7.8% from 5.9% via 5.1M Mac shipments (could imply a 15%+ revenue share), but Gartner doesn't have the company in its top-5. IDC and Gartner respectively assign Apple 13.5% and 12.7% U.S. shares. In the past, IDC's Mac shipment estimates have been notably different from the quarterly figures Apple would later report.
- Near-term expectations for PC sales are already quite low, following Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) Q1 warning, AMD's Q2 warning, Micron's (NASDAQ:MU) June 25 results/guidance, and plenty of other negative news. Intel's Q2 report arrives on July 15.
- Other PC industry names: NVDA, STX, WDC, HTCH
Tue, Jun. 2, 7:27 AM
- The head of Lenovo's (OTCPK:LNVGY) mobile business is stepping down less than a year after the Chinese technology giant bought Motorola Mobility to boost its smartphone offerings.
- Liu Jun will be replaced by Chen Xudong, the head of ShenQi, a sub-division that sells mobile devices.
- Lenovo did not offer a reason for Liu's exit but said he would become a special consultant to Chief Executive Yang Yuanqing.
Mon, May 11, 2:17 PM
- After growing 19.1% Y/Y in Q4 (and seeing stronger growth earlier in 2014), Chinese smartphone shipments fell 4.3% in Q1 to 98.8M units, per IDC. Higher penetration rates, carrier subsidy cuts, and an inventory buildup near the end of 2014 contributed to the drop.
- IDC: "China is oftentimes thought of as an emerging market but the reality is that the vast majority of phones sold in China today are smartphones ... convincing existing users as well as feature phone users to upgrade to new smartphones will now be the key to further growth in the China market."
- Analysts have already noted Chinese smartphone demand has softened. Demand is expected to improve in 2H15, as inventories are cleared and 4G phone sales continue growing. IDC expects "relatively flat" growth for the whole of 2015.
- With strong pent-up demand for larger iPhones providing a lift, IDC estimates Apple's (AAPL -0.9%) share rose to 14.7% (#1 overall) from 12.3% in Q4 and 8.7% a year ago, via 14.5M shipments (+62% Y/Y). Revenue share was likely well over 30%, given sub-$150 Android phones account for a large portion of local sales. Apple, for its part, has reported its Greater China revenue (iPhone or otherwise) rose 71% Y/Y in Q1 to $16.8B (29% of total revenue).
- Xiaomi continues growing rapidly: IDC estimates its share rose to 13.7% (#2) from 9.2% a year ago. Fellow local Android OEM Huawei saw its share rise to 11.4% (#3) from 7.8%. Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), however, saw its share fall to 9.7% from 19.9% ahead of the Galaxy S6 launch. Lenovo/Motorola's (OTCPK:LNVGY) share fell to 8.3% (#5) from 10.3%. Everyone else had 42.2% of the market.
Wed, Apr. 29, 6:21 PM
- The WSJ reports AAC Technologies, one of the two suppliers of the Apple Watch's (NASDAQ:AAPL) taptic engine (enables its haptic feedback features) was making defective components, and thus slowed down the ramping of Watch production. No recall is planned, since Apple doesn't believe Watches with the defective part shipped to consumers.
- Apple has reportedly responded by moving nearly all of its taptic engine production to Japan's Nidec, which didn't encounter the same issue. However, the WSJ states "it may take time" for Nidec to up production, and that Apple told some Watch suppliers last week to "slow production until June."
- The report comes as shipping times for many Watch models remain lengthy; a survey from research firm Slice indicated only 22% of U.S. Watch orders were delivered during the first weekend (376K out of 1.7M).
- In its FQ2 10-Q, Apple discloses the European Commission "could require Ireland to recover from the Company past taxes covering a period of up to 10 years," and that such tax payments could be "material." The EC has long been probing the use of Irish legal structures by Apple and other U.S. multinationals to lower their local tax bills; the FT reported last year Apple could receive a fine of up to several billions of euros.
- IDC estimates Apple's 61.2M calendar Q1 iPhone sales were good for an 18.2% global smartphone unit share, up from 15.2% a year ago; revenue share is likely above 40%. Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) had an estimated 24.5% unit share (82.4M shipments), down from 30.7% a year ago. #3 Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) fell to 5.6% from 6.6% after factoring the Motorola Mobility deal.
- Overall, IDC thinks smartphone shipments rose 16.7% Y/Y to 336.5M. The total mobile phone market was roughly flat at 458.9M units.
Thu, Apr. 9, 6:03 PM
- As Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) March 12 warning led many to expect, PC sales were weak in Q1: IDC estimates shipments fell 6.7% Y/Y to 68.5M, a much sharper drop than Q4's 2.4% and Q3/Q2's 1.7%. Gartner estimates shipments fell 5.2% to 71.7M. With IDC also reporting of price pressure, revenue declines might be larger.
- IDC: [T]he Q1 market faced multiple headwinds – including inventory build-up of Windows Bing based notebooks, commercial slow down following the [Windows] XP refresh and constrained demand in many regions due to currency fluctuations and unfavorable economic indicators." Gartner thinks sales of "mobile PCs" (notebooks, convertibles, and Windows tablets) rose, while desktop sales fell sharply. "PC replacements will be driven by thin and light notebooks with tablet functionality."
- Both Gartner and IDC report U.S. PC shipments fell only ~1% Y/Y. On the other hand, IDC thinks Japan (another high-ASP market) saw shipments fall 44%; strong Q1 2014 spending prior to a tax hike made for tough comps.
- Market leaders Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) and HP (NYSE:HPQ) continued taking share from firms with less scale: IDC estimates Lenovo's share rose to 19.6% from 17.6% a year ago (3.4% unit growth), and HP's to 19% from 17.1% (3.3% unit growth).
- #3 Dell's share rose to 13.5% from 13.4%; #4 Asus (OTC:ASUUY) was flat at 7.1%, and #5 Acer (OTC:ASIYF) rose to 7% from 6.3%. Everyone else collectively fell to 33.9% from 38.4%.
- Unlike in Q4 and Q3 (seasonally stronger quarters for the company), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) wasn't in the global top-5. IDC estimates the company's US. unit share rose to 10.9% from 10.6%, good for fourth place (revenue share is higher).
- Other PC industry names: MSFT, AMD, NVDA, MU, STX, WDC, HTCH
Mon, Mar. 30, 6:28 PM
- Thanks in large part to the low-cost Moto G (now Brazil's top-selling smartphone), Lenovo's (OTCPK:LNVGY) Motorola Mobility unit has doubled its Brazilian smartphone share to 18% (per IDC), a figure that trails only Samsung's 43%.
- Google originally launched the Moto G with a 4.5" display and a $179 unsubsidized price in 2013. A second-gen model contains a 5" display and a similar price, though it goes for $260 in Brazil due to taxes/tariffs. A second-gen version of the cheaper Moto E (4.5" display) will sell for $120 in the U.S., and $200 in Brazil.
- Motorola's Brazilian success highlights the one-time mobile giant's success at improving its fortunes by focusing on cheap Android phones that are a cut above many comparably-priced products in terms of design/build quality. IDC estimates Lenovo (aided by Motorola) had a 6.6% global Q4 smartphone unit share on the back of 24.7M shipments. Motorola's shipments rose 118% over the whole of 2014.
Fri, Mar. 13, 3:21 AM
- In the latest sign of weakening demand for personal computers, International Data Corp. predicts global shipments of PCs will decline 4.9% this year to 293.1M units, a bigger drop than its previous guidance for a 3.3% decrease.
- According to market research firm, the PC market declined 0.8% to $201B last year and is expected to drop an additional 6.9% in 2015, with smaller declines in coming years, reducing the market to $175B by 2019.
- Previously: Intel -4.1% on Q1 warning; other PC industry names also fall (Mar. 12 2015)
- Related stocks: OTC:ASIYF, AMD, HPQ, INTC, OTCPK:LNVGY, MSFT, MU, NVDA, SNE, STX, OTCPK:TOSYY, WDC
Sat, Mar. 7, 3:26 PM
- With Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) Grantley Xeon CPU launch and Web data center investments offsetting weak high-end server demand, IDC estimates global server revenue rose 1.9% Y/Y in Q4 to $14.5B, and Gartner estimates it rose 2.2% to $14B; those figures compares with Q3 growth estimates of 4.8% and 1.7%, respectively.
- Likewise, IDC estimates global enterprise storage revenue rose 7.2% Y/Y in Q4, aided by Web investments and healthy demand for mid-range systems featuring integrated flash. Q3 growth was pegged at 5.1%.
- IBM had a rough time its both the server and storage markets: IDC believes its storage share fell to 9% (tied for #3) from 12.7% a year earlier, and Gartner estimates its server revenue fell 14% if one excludes Big Blue's x86 server unit, which was just sold to Lenovo. After accounting for the x86 sale, IDC estimates IBM's server share was at 13.7% (#3) vs. 26.8% a year ago.
- HP (NYSE:HPQ) fared a little better: IDC has its server share falling fractionally to 26.8% (still #1 overall), and its storage share falling to 13.8% (#2) from 14.1%. The company's x86 server unit has been gaining ground against IBM's former business, but its high-end server sales remain weak.
- Cisco's (NASDAQ:CSCO) UCS server line (recently refreshed) continues to gain ground: Its share rose to 5.3% (#5) from 4.5%, with full-year revenue pegged at $2.9B. With the help of aggressive pricing and x86 growth, Dell's server share rose to 16.7% (#2) from 15.2%, while its storage share slipped to 9% (tied for #3) from 9.2%. Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) claimed a 7.6% server share (#4) thanks to the IBM deal, kicking Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) out of the top-5 along the way.
- EMC, whose high-end storage sales have been pressured (mid-range/flash demand has been better), saw its storage share drop to 22.2% (still #1) from 23.1%. NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP), which posted an FQ3 miss and light guidance last month amid tough mid-range competition from EMC and others, saw its share drop to 7.2% (#5) from 8%.
- Not surprisingly, the white-label hardware beloved by Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc. continued to take share. IDC estimates such hardware, referred to as ODM Direct, claimed server and storage shares of 8.2% and 12.8% vs. 6.4% and 9.9% a year ago.
- Sales of x86 servers, the lion's share of which run on Intel CPUs, rose 7.1% to $11.5B. Sales of non-x86 servers fell 14% to $3B, thanks to declining demand for both mainframes and UNIX servers running proprietary RISC CPUs. "Early-stage revenue" was seen for ARM (NASDAQ:ARMH) servers, largely via HP's Moonshot line.
- Other companies with strong server and/or storage exposure: STX, WDC, SMCI, MLNX, AVGO, QLGC, RHT
Thu, Mar. 5, 7:49 PM
- The WSJ reports Google's (NASDAQ:GOOG) U.S. mobile phone service will initially feature just one phone - the mammoth Nexus 6 phablet, originally designed by Google and made by Lenovo's (OTCPK:LNVGY) Motorola Mobility unit. iPhone fans are out of luck, as are those who prefer more modestly-sized Android hardware.
- The paper adds the service might launch by month's end. As previously rumored, it will rely on Sprint (NYSE:S) and T-Mobile's (NYSE:TMUS) networks, along with Wi-Fi hotspots.
- For those curious, the Nexus 6 has a 6" quad-HD (2560x1440) OLED display, a 13MP rear camera with optical image stabilization, 4K video recording support, and a large f/2.0 aperture, and Qualcomm's (NASDAQ:QCOM) high-end Snapdragon 805 processor (quad-core, 2.7GHz.). Naturally, it runs on an unmodified version of Android 5.0 (Lollipop).
- The report suggests Google will try to avoid ruffling the feathers of its U.S. carrier partners by limiting the amount of hardware supported by its phone service ... and that it will have it act as a showcase for what it thinks mobile services should be like (as suggested by Sundar Pichai) by offering the services through its favorite devices.
- Separately, Google has launched its long-rumored U.S. car insurance shopping site in California (more states will come later). Google asserts the site, known as Google Compare, can provide price quotes for various providers in "as little as 5 minutes."
- A U.K. version of Google Compare has been running for two years. Like rival car insurance shopping sites, Google will get a referral fee on sales; major insurers such as MetLife and Mercury Insurance are on board.
Tue, Mar. 3, 7:05 AM
- Connecticut AG George Jepsen's office said it launched a probe into Lenovo's (OTCPK:LNVGY) sales of laptops preloaded with an encryption-breaking adware program known as Superfish.
- Reports that the preloaded software tracks users' web searching and browsing for advertising purposes are "alarming revelations" that suggest Lenovo may have "seriously undermined computer users' online security and privacy," Jepsen said in his Feb. 27 letter to Lenovo.
- Other state attorneys general may also begin looking into the situation.
- Previously: Lenovo tech woes continue (Feb. 26 2015)
Thu, Feb. 26, 4:05 AM
- Just a week after apologizing for bundling computers with an encryption-breaking adware program known as Superfish, Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) said a cyberattack had taken down its website on Thursday, although it was not clear who was behind the breach.
- Hacker group Lizard Squad, which has taken credit for several recent high-profile outages, including Sony's PlayStation Network and Microsoft's Xbox Live, has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Wed, Feb. 25, 12:43 PM
- As of 2012, Cisco (CSCO -0.9%) had 60 products on a Chinese government list of products approved for purchase by state entities. As of late 2014, it had none, according to Reuters' analysis of government data.
- PC/server virtualization software vendor Citrix (CTXS +0.5%) has also seen its products disappear from the list, as have Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) McAfee security software unit. While the total number of products on the list has risen by over 2K since 2012 (to nearly 5K), the number of approved foreign tech brands has fallen by a third.
- The data highlights the ripple effects of the 2013 NSA spying uproar, as well as China's broader interest in promoting local tech firms relative to foreign suppliers. Bloomberg reported in December the Chinese government is "aiming to purge most foreign technology from banks, the military, state-owned enterprises and key government agencies by 2020."
- Cisco's Chinese sales have already been under heavy pressure for several quarters. Thanks in part to the government's efforts, the networking giant's Chinese orders fell 19% Y/Y in the January quarter, compared with just a 1% drop for other Asia-Pac markets.
- Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY), ZTE (OTCPK:ZTCOY), and Huawei are among the local firms likely to benefit from the government's attempts to buy local.
Wed, Feb. 18, 1:35 PM
- Fresh off acquiring IBM's x86 server unit, Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) plans to create an ARM (NASDAQ:ARMH) server prototype for its IBM-developed NeXtScale high-density server line (used in scale-out data centers running Web/cloud, HPC, and analytics workloads). The effort is part of a collaboration with a U.K. HPC R&D lab.
- Lenovo's server will run on Cavium's (NASDAQ:CAVM) ThunderX ARM server CPU line, which supports up to 48 cores per chip and clock speeds of up to 2.5GHz. Lenovo asserts 12 of its ARM servers will support up to 1,152 CPU cores and occupy a modest 6U of rack space.
- The deal gives Cavium a high-profile client as it battles against AppliedMicro, AMD, Qualcomm, and others in the budding ARM server CPU market. Cavium has tried to differentiate itself from rivals in part by creating ThunderX CPUs optimized for storage, networking, and security appliances, as well as by providing high levels of I/O bandwidth. Shares have made new highs.
Wed, Feb. 4, 1:22 PM
- China's Leiphone reports Baidu (BIDU +0.3%) is investing over $100M in Fancy Maker, a new Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) brand (first announced in October) created to take on Xiaomi and Apple in the Chinese smartphone market.
- Like Xiaomi, Fancy Maker (begins operations in April) will rely on online sales and viral marketing. As Marbridge Consulting observes, Fancy Maker will likely agree to pre-install Baidu's mobile apps/services as part of a deal; Qihoo's recent $409M investment in a JV with Chinese Android OEM Coolpad features such terms.
- IDC estimates Xiaomi had a 5.3% Q3 global smartphone unit share (211% Y/Y unit growth), and Lenovo a 5.2% share (38% unit growth). With Motorola Mobility on the books, Lenovo estimates it had a 6.6% share in calendar Q4, with ~60% of its phone sales coming outside of China.
- Baidu's Q4 report arrives on Feb. 11.
Mon, Jan. 12, 5:58 PM
- IDC estimates global PC shipments fell 2.4% Y/Y in Q4 to 80.8M - a bigger decline than Q3 and Q2's 1.7%, but better than expectations for a 4.8% drop. Gartner is more positive, estimating shipments rose 1% to 83.7M.
- Both firms observe emerging markets, where tablet cannibalization remains a major issue, remain in worse shape than developed markets. IDC also states commercial PC demand (boosted earlier this year by MSFT's ending of Win. XP support) has slowed, and that "market progress has been fueled by low-priced systems, including growth of Chromebooks and [Microsoft's] promotion of Windows 8 + Bing."
- On the bright side, both IDC and Gartner report Asia-Pac returned to positive growth, and that broader consumer demand is gradually improving. The U.S. consumer market is expected to return to positive growth in 2015, aided by slowing tablet demand and the Windows 10 launch.
- IDC believes all top-5 vendors gained share from rivals with less scale. A quarter after cracking the top-5 for the first time with a 6.3% share, Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) unit share is believed to have risen to 7.1% (+130 bps Y/Y) on the back of 4.9M shipments (+18.9%). Given higher ASPs, revenue share might be around 15%.
- Market leader Lenovo's (OTCPK:LNVGY) share rose 140 bps to 19.9%; #2 HP's (NYSE:HPQ) rose 300 bps to 19.7%; #3 Dell's rose 140 bps to 13.5%; #4 Acer's (OTC:ASIYF) rose 40 bps to 7.7%. Non-top 5 firms saw their share drop 740 bps to 32.2%, with their shipments declining 20.7%.
- Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), which tends to have good visibility into industry demand, reports on Thursday.
- Related tickers: AMD, NVDA, STX, WDC, HTCH
Wed, Jan. 7, 5:05 AM
- After spending about $5B last year to buy the Motorola smartphone business and IBM's low-end server unit, Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) Chief Executive Yang Yuanqing says that the company's focus for 2015 will be on integration, not more acquisitions.
- Yang doesn't expect Motorola to be profitable for four to six quarters, but he reaffirmed that the new server unit from IBM should turn a profit within the first year.
- Lenovo will also bring Motorola phones back to China this quarter, reintroducing the brand to the world’s largest market after an absence of more than two years.
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