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Sunday, September 2, 2012, 7:54 AM It's always struck as curious the way capitalists (at least nominally so) put their faith in a group of Beijing Mandarins to guide the Chinese economy into just the right spot. Goldman's Paul O'Neill describes the government's muted response to the severe growth slowdown as maybe a clever way of achieving the vaunted rebalancing of the economy. (latest PMI data) 5 Comments [Global & FX]
Thursday, August 30, 2012, 9:12 AM Maybe hoping to put a charge into flagging stock prices, China introduces a pilot program to allow brokerages to offer margin lending, as well as stock lending for shorts. A market without shorts is a market that never experiences a rush higher from short-covering. 2 Comments [Global & FX]
Wednesday, August 29, 2012, 7:10 AM After a 1-day rally, Shanghai (-1%) resumes its downtrend, the composite index falling to its lowest level since early February 2009. It's earnings seasons in China and the reports continue to disappoint even lowered expectations. Air China (AIRYY.PK) said profit fell 77% in H1 as rising fuel costs combined with the slumping economy. Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, August 28, 2012, 7:13 AM A sign of strength or desperation? Baoshan Iron & Steel soars 10% in Shanghai after announcing it will buy back up to $787M of its beaten-down shares. The refiners - namely Sinopec (SNP) and PetroChina (PTR) - join the rally as speculation falls on these giants as the next to commence repurchases. Shanghai +0.9%. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Monday, August 27, 2012, 7:02 AM Shanghai ignores a rally in the West on Friday and posts a 1.8% decline as poor earnings reports continue to roll in. "The situation in China has gone beyond a soft landing already," says an asset manager. "Corporate earnings are really deteriorating there." Comment! [Global & FX]
Friday, August 24, 2012, 7:35 AM Shanghai falls 1% to its lowest level since March 2009, led by Maanshan Iron & Steel (a 16-year low) and Shanxi Coal, which both reported steep drops in earnings. Also not helping is a report from Xinhua News Agency saying Beijing has ordered local governments not to relax property controls. Comment! [Global & FX]
Monday, August 20, 2012, 5:26 PM An under-reported story has been the Shanghai Composite, which hit a three-year low today and whose divergence with the S&P 500 has reached "stunning" proportions. Hopes turn to government stimulus as evidence of decelerating growth has mounted, but this weekend's report of rising property prices gives Chinese policymakers less flexibility to ease. 2 Comments [Global & FX]
Monday, August 20, 2012, 7:18 AM China is in good news is bad news mode (remember the 90s when a strong U.S. retail sales report could cause stocks to drop), as a better-than-expected report on housing prices sends Shanghai -0.4%. Strong data makes it less likely Beijing will ease policy. It seems trader dependence on central banks transcends oceans and cultures. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Sunday, August 19, 2012, 7:08 PM "Fears of an unstoppable Chinese juggernaut are misplaced or outdated," writes Patrick Chovanec, urging to instead focus on a country stumbling badly and not knowing what to do next. How might the next President respond to a devaluation of the yuan, continued dumping of excess steel and other products, or even an escalation of military tension in the South China Sea (as Beijing tries to shift attention away from domestic issues). 2 Comments [Global & FX]
Friday, August 17, 2012, 8:01 AM Fascinating research from BCA shows the divergence of late between Chinese stocks (down) and corporate bond spreads (getting tighter). Such is not the case in America or in Europe where equity prices and bond spreads move in lockstep. Has an opportunity arisen in beaten-down Chinese shares? 2 Comments [Global & FX, Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, August 15, 2012, 7:15 AM Shanghai slumped again last night (-1.1%), and it's music to the ears of international money managers who have been granted a record $6.9B in quotas to buy A shares since December. Stocks are cheap they believe - both on an absolute and relative (compared to the rest of the MSCI emerging markets) basis. Comment! [Global & FX]
Monday, August 13, 2012, 7:04 AM Bank of America joins the group cutting Chinese growth forecasts, slashing its own 2012 estimate to 7.7% from 8%. Shanghai stocks tumbled (-1.5%), led by steep declines in the brokerages, property, and construction material stocks. Apparentlly, Beijing may not be as quick as hoped with easier monetary policy. Sigh. Comment! [Global & FX]
Thursday, August 9, 2012, 5:00 PM "Deflation, not inflation is the greatest short-term threat to the Chinese economy," says IHS Global Insight, following last night's report of accelerating declines in factory-gate prices. "This was the moment when stimulus was supposed to bite. It didn't." "We don't believe official data," says Charles Dumas, who thinks GDP growth slowed to 1% in Q2 (vs. government at 7.6%). Comment! [Global & FX]
Wednesday, August 8, 2012, 8:15 AM China bears like to point to flatlining electricity output as proof of the country's sharp growth slowdown, but what if it's just signaling a shift to a more services-based economy? Suggesting China has gone from Indonesia last year to Switzerland this year is "a little bit of a reach," says Michael Parker, not buying the argument. 3 Comments [Global & FX]
Monday, August 6, 2012, 7:22 AM Employee stock options are on their way to China as the CSRC announces a plan to allow workers to receive as much as 30% of their pay in company stock. It's the latest in a series of moves this year to try and funnel some of the country's vast savings into the stock market (as opposed to property). Shanghai +1% overnight. Comment! [Global & FX]
Friday, August 3, 2012, 7:28 AM Shanghai continues its habit of zigging while rest of the world zags, posting its biggest gain in weeks overnight (+1%). Regulators helped, slashing trading fees on equities by 20%. Also advice: "Chinese publicly traded companies, especially those (trading below book), have an obligation to buy back shares," - an unidentified CSRC official. Comment! [Global & FX]

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iShares MSCI China Index ETF