• Fed stays put. The Fed Open Market Committee left target rates unchanged at 0-0.25% by unanimous vote, saying conditions are still "likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." The Fed acknowledged an ongoing pickup in economic activity, but warned things are likely to remain weak for a while. It noted "substantial" resource slack will continue to dampen cost pressures, and it continues to believe "inflation will remain subdued for some time." It also pared its expectations for buying agency debt and agency MBS to $175B compared to a former maximum of $200B, to wrap up by the end of Q1. Here's a side-by-side comparison of Wednesday's statement with the previous one. Stocks surged after the statement, but a late-day selloff sent major indexes back to breakeven.
Attention Wall Street Breakfast readers: We're looking for a freelance financial journalist to produce WSB and help with our Market Currents blog in Rachael's absence. More details here.
• Dodd's drastic detour on bank regulation. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd is reportedly readying legislation that would strip the Fed and FDIC of almost all their bank-supervision powers, creating in their place a new agency in charge of supervising all banks and bank-holding companies. Dodd's proposal would also create a council of regulators, overseen by the White House, to monitor systemic risks to the financial system. The suggestion is in stark contrast to approaches taken by the House and favored by the Obama administration, which have pushed to expand the Fed's powers. Dodd's model is likely to face heavy resistance, particularly from the banking industry, which is ironic since Dodd has been criticized for being too cozy with Wall Street bankers.
• Skype deal almost done. The private-equity investors that agreed to buy 65% of Skype from eBay (EBAY) for about $2.1B are on the verge of settling their dispute with Skype's founders in a deal that will give them 10% of Skype and a presence on its board, in exchange for giving up rights to the peer-to-peer technology they control and a significant amount of cash. An official announcement could come as soon as this morning.
• Senate shuffles taxes. The Senate passed legislation Wednesday that would give tax breaks to big companies impacted by the recession; increase taxes on multinational firms; extend and expand the homebuyers tax credit; and lengthen unemployment benefits. The proposed tax increases are aimed at offsetting the cost of the breaks, which business leaders worry may be a harbinger of more tax increases to come.
• Chambers sounds all clear. Cisco's (CSCO) net profit dropped 19% on lower sales (see data below), but CEO John Chambers gave an optimistic outlook on the economy and said businesses were ready to resume spending on technology. On Cisco's Q3 earnings call, Chambers told analysts the recovery "is well underway" and that economic improvements were "gaining momentum" worldwide. He also predicted Cisco's revenue would grow in Q4 after a year of contraction.
• Junk default rate hits post-Depression high. The global speculative-grade default rate rose to 12.4% in October, surpassing the record set in 1991 for the highest proportion of defaults since the Great Depression, Moody's said in a report this morning. Moody's believes the default rate may peak in November at 12.5%, noting the total number of defaults declined to eight in October, the lowest count this year.
• Big bonuses are back. Wall Street incentive pay is set to rise by about 40% according to a closely-watched survey to be released today, as stronger markets collide with the backlash over bonuses. Johnson Associates predicts incentive-based payouts will surge by as much as 60% from 2008, led by employees in rebounding businesses like fixed income and equities. In contrast, the firm predicts declines of 15-30% at hedge funds, private-equity firms and prime-brokerage operations which have seen a marked drop in AUM.
• Consumer bankruptcy strikes new high. Consumer bankruptcy filings hit 135,913 in October, an 8.9% jump from September, and 27.9% higher than a year ago, according to a study by the American Bankruptcy Institute. "The debt overhang from literally a decade or more of really high consumer spending and low savings rates has put families in a particularly vulnerable spot," ABI's Samuel Gerdano said. The rise outpaced a 7% month-on-month increase in business filings.
• Downgrade dominance declines. S&P said it downgraded only one more nonfinancial firm in October than it upgraded (24-23), a marked improvement considering the downgrade/upgrade ratio from Sept. 2008 to Aug. 2009 was 835-115. S&P said the large drop "supports our belief that aggregate credit quality, although weak, is stabilizing," and noted that the number of companies with a negative ratings outlook or on watch for downgrade has declined steadily. Meanwhile, more than $4B in new corporate bonds were offered Wednesday, including a $2B sale by DuPont (DD).
• BOE boosts bond buying: The Bank of England kept its target bank rate at 0.5%, as expected, but raised its bond buying program to £200B from £175B, which it expects to complete in about three months. "Banks’ funding conditions have improved, though financial conditions remain fragile," the Bank said, and noted "a number of indicators of spending and confidence, however, suggest that a pickup in economic activity may soon be evident."
• Private-sector jobs still sliding. ADP's October employment report showed private U.S. payrolls declined by 203,000, while revising September's loss to 227K from 254K - the seventh straight month of declining job losses. ADP's report comes two days before the government's official nonfarm payroll data, and has been reasonably well correlated with NFP data in recent months. Consensus estimates suggest 150–175K job losses in October and an unemployment rate of 9.9%.
• Online job seeking rises slowly. Monster's index of online job advertising inched up to 120, vs. 119 in Sept and 150 a year ago. Healthcare and public administration demonstrated solid growth, but retail and hospitality hiring retracted. "The rise in the October Index, along with an improvement in the annual rate, indicate a mild expansion in the underlying employer demand for workers," Monster said. "While the decline in consumer confidence has likely contributed to reduced job demand in the retail and hospitality sectors, employers are actively recruiting in the healthcare and public sectors, resulting in stability of the overall Index."

Earnings: Thur. Before Open

• Allied Capital (ALD): Q3 EPS of $0.02 misses by $0.05. Revenue of $M in-line. Shares -1.3% premarket. (PR)
• Biovail (BVF): Q3 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $212M in-line. (PR)
• Cardinal Health (CAH): FQ1 EPS of $0.54 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $24.8B (+5.9%) vs. $24B. (PR)
• Canadian Natural Resource (CNQ): Q3 EPS of C$1.21 misses by C$0.04. Revenue of C$2.82B (+2.7%) vs. C$2.99B. (PR)
• CenturyTel (CTL): Q3 EPS of $0.90 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $1.87B (+188.3%) in-line. (PR)
• CIGNA (CI): Q3 EPS of $1.13 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $4.52B (-6.9%) in-line. (PR)
• CVS Caremark (CVS): Q3 EPS of $0.65 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $24.6B (+17.7%) in-line. Shares +1% premarket. (PR)
• Delta Petroleum (DPTR): Q3 EPS of -$0.35 misses by $0.24. Revenue of $23.9M (-66.8%) vs. $21.9M. "We are extremely disappointed with the results of the Gray well, but exploration drilling carries with it significant risks." Shares -12.8% premarket. (PR)
• DirecTV Group (DTV): Q3 EPS of $0.37 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $5.47B in-line. (PR)
• Dr Pepper Snapple (DPN): Q3 EPS of $0.54 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $1.43B (-4%) in-line. Sees full-year EPS of $1.92-1.96 vs. $1.97. ""While the economy is showing some signs of recovery, it's still too early to see this translate into higher beverage sales. For the quarter, liquid refreshment beverage trends remained negative." Shares +0.7% premarket. (PR)
• Dynegy (DYN): Q3 EPS of -$0.10 misses by $0.13. Revenue of $673M (-61.7%) vs. $877M. (PR)
• Frontier Oil (FTO): Q3 EPS of -$0.26 misses by $0.11. Revenue of $1.1B (-45.4%) in-line. (PR)
• King Pharmaceuticals (KG): Q3 EPS of $0.29 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $463M (+19.3%) vs. $445M. (PR)
• Lamar Advertising (LAMR): Q3 EPS of -$0.05 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $167M (-13%) vs. $164M. (PR)
• Macerich (MAC): Q3 FFO of $0.97 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $201M (+49.8%) in-line. (PR)
• Manulife Financial (MFC): Q3 EPS of C-$0.12 misses by C$0.32. Revenue of C$13.75B. (PR)
• MGM Mirage (MGM): Q3 EPS of $0.02 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $1.71B (-12.7%) vs. $1.47B. Las Vegas Strip RevPAR fell 21%. Amends credit facility to refinance existing debt and provide more debt of up to $1B. Shares +5.7% premarket. (PR)
• MetroPCS Communications (PCS): Q3 EPS of $0.21 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $895M (+30.4%) vs. $869M. (PR)
• MF Global (MF): FQ2 EPS of $0.01 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $493M (-40.9%) vs. $273M. (PR)
• Nasdaq (NDAQ): Q3 EPS of $0.42 in-line. Revenue of $691M (+3.3%) vs. $355M. (PR)
• Petrohawk Energy (HK): Q3 EPS of $0.14 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $238M (-22%) vs. $305M. (PR)
• Plains Exploration & Production (PXP): Q3 EPS of $0.30 misses by $0.23. Revenue of $313M (-56.5%) vs. $376M. Shares -0.6% premarket. (PR)
• Sara Lee (SLE): FQ1 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $2.59B (-7.4%) vs. $3.16B. Shares +0.2% premarket. (PR)
• Sirius XM Radio (SIRI): Q3 EPS of $0.00 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $630M (+2.8%) vs. $609M. Ends quarter with 18,515,730 subscribers, +102,295 from Q2. Shares +3.9% premarket. (PR)
• Spectra Energy (SE): Q3 EPS of $0.30 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $933M (-13.6%) vs. $986M. (PR)
• Teradata (TDC): Q3 EPS of $0.38 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $425M (-3.2%) in-line. (PR)
• Thomson Reuters (TRI): Q3 EPS of $0.43 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $3.21B (-3.6%) in-line. "While the weak year-to-date net sales experienced in recent quarters are now flowing through into revenues, we expect this dip to be shallow and limited to the next few quarters." (PR)
• Time Warner Cable (TWC): Q3 EPS of $0.76 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $4.5B (+3.6%) in-line. (PR)
• Watson Wyatt (WW): FQ1 EPS of $0.84 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $401M (-5.8%) vs. $394M. Sees FQ2 EPS of $0.81-0.86 vs. $0.89 (PR)
• Wendy's Arby's Group (WEN): Q3 EPS of $0.06 in-line. Revenue of $903M vs. $916M. Shares +3.8% premarket. (PR)

Earnings: Wed. After Close

• Allstate (ALL): Q3 EPS of $0.99 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $7.6B (+4%) vs. $8.5B. Shares -2.1% AH. (8-K)
• Amdocs (DOX): FQ4 EPS of $0.53 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $707M (-14%) vs. $679M. Sees Q1 EPS of $0.51-0.55 vs. $0.50, on revenue of $705M-725M vs. $676M. Shares +6.2% AH. (PR)
• Cisco Systems (CSCO): Q3 EPS of $0.36 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $9B (-13%) vs. $8.7B. Shares +2.8% AH. (PR)
• Corrections Corp. of America (CXW): Q3 EPS of $0.39 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $426M (+6%) vs. $423M. Shares -2.7% AH. (PR)
• Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE): Q3 EPS of $0.06 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $42M (-19%) in-line. Shares -5.7% AH. (PR)
• Evergreen Solar (ESLR): Q3 EPS of -$0.40 misses by $0.32. Revenue of $78M (+251%) vs. $74M. Shares +2.1% AH. (PR)
• Goldcorp (GG): Q3 EPS of $0.19 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $692M (+25%) vs. $614M. Shares +2.1% AH. (PR)
• Goodrich Petroleum (GDP): Q3 EPS of -$0.87 misses by $0.70. Revenue of $24M (-61%) vs. $52M. Shares -7% AH. (PR)
• Health Care REIT (HCN): Q3 FFO (normalized) of $0.77 in-line. Revenue of $145M (+4%) vs. $143M. Sees full-year EPS of $3.10-3.12 vs. $3.13. Shares +1.6% AH. (PR)
• ION Geophysical (IO): Q3 EPS of -$0.06 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $102.4M (-53%) vs. $102.6M. Shares -8.4% AH. (PR)
• Microchip Technology (MCHP): FQ2 EPS of $0.29 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $227M (-16%) vs. $218M. Sees FQ3 EPS of $0.33-0.35 vs. $0.24, on revenue of $236M-245M vs. $224M. Shares +1.6% AH. (PR)
• Murphy Oil (MUR): Q3 EPS of $0.98 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $5.2B (-37%) vs. $4.4B. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.75-0.90 vs. $1.18. Shares -2% AH. (PR)
• News Corp. (NWS): FQ1 EPS of $0.22 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $7.2B (-4%) in-line. Shares +3% AH. (PR)
• ON Semiconductor (ONNN): Q3 EPS of $0.16 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $473M (-19%) vs. $455M. Shares +4% AH. (PR)
• Prudential Financial (PRU): Q3 EPS of $1.59 beats by $0.26. Revenue of $6.6B (+4%) vs. $6.65B. Shares +0.4% AH. (PR)
• Qualcomm (QCOM): FQ4 EPS of $0.48 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $2.7B (-19%) vs. $2.8B. Sees Q1 revenue of $2.55B-2.75B vs. $2.84B. Shares +1% AH. (PR)
• Sunstone Hotel Investors (SHO): Q3 FFO of $0.14 in-line. Revenue of $176M (-20%) vs. $180M. Shares +2% AH. (PR)
• THQ (THQI): FQ2 EPS of -$0.08 beats by $0.40. Revenue of $101M (-39%) vs. $92M. Shares +11.5% AH. (PR)
• Whole Foods Market (WFMI): FQ4 EPS of $0.20 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.8B (-2%) in-line. Same-store sales down 0.9%. Shares -7.7% AH. (PR)

Today's Markets

Asian markets were mixed Thursday. Europe is lower at midday, and futures are flat.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is our one truly speculative fare in the portfolio - after sitting on the precipice of potential default, banks swooped in [Apr 22, 2009: Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands Amend Credit Terms] and helped both LVS and MGM Mirage (MGM) live despite yawning debt loads. Las Vegas casinos was actually a group I was targeting 2 years ago as one of our canary in the coal mines when CNBC pundits and government officials were denying a recession was possible - while we were saying the house and ATM driven, conspicuous consumption era was about to hit the wall. [Oct 3, 2007: A Top in Casino Names? Wynn and Las Vegas Sands] Unfortunately, at that time we could not short individual equities, so we could only watch from afar as many of these names fell 90%+ versus October 07.

But now it's a new day and almost every large corporation is deemed too big to fail. (Small business? No one cares about you) So we have to invest with the central planning commission government; amazingly banks which themselves were on the cliff of failing found it in their hearts to adjust loan terms to keep these big casinos alive. [Sep 3, 2009: Las Vegas Sands - Too Big to Fail?]

• Online gaming could "raise nearly $42 billion for the U.S. Treasury over the next decade, according to an analysis conducted by a non-partisan congressional scorekeeper."

Along with other gaming companies, Youbet.com (UBET, $2.08) supports the measure as a means to expand the company's Internet platform (and clearly valuable, apt domain name) into new areas beyond horse racing. While some investors are concerned about potential cannibalization for Youbet's core horse racing business, we see somewhat distinct market opportunities that should lead to a much larger addressable market for the company. Thus, any news on this front could prove a positive catalyst for the stock, although timing/ execution related to potential new business lines remain unknown and, therefore, not factored into our valuation.

Disclosure: No positions in any security mentioned above.

Casino operator MGM Mirage (MGM) said on Tuesday that it plans to take a third quarter writedown of nearly $1 billion related to the company’s City Center project in Las Vegas. City Center is a 67-acre mixed-use complex on the Las Vegas Strip complete with residential, retail, and casino real estate. The project has been to the brink of financial ruin and back, almost done in by a difficult economic environment. The casino industry has humbled by the recession, which has caused steep drops in gambling revenues and room rates. Some fear that when the project opens in December, the excess supply could push rates down even further.

The fate of the City Center development reflects the harsh reality facing Las Vegas and the global gaming industry. MGM has also announced that it is cutting condo prices by 30% in light of the recent economic downturn. According to Kevin Kingsbury, many people who had signed contracts on the condo building indicated they would have trouble closing now that finance is harder to come by.

With the October options expiration approaching us in just 3 days, I thought I would outline some trade ideas on stocks I wouldn't mind going long on, that would return good percentages by Friday (as of market close Tuesday). When using the buy/write option strategy, it is important that you are willing to hold the security in case it is below the strike price at options expiration. I have put together a list of stocks which will return a nice percentage gain if they are above the strike price as of October options expiration, but will also protect (lower cost basis) to the downside in case the stock sells off slightly and expires below the strike price. The list below is a very tall one, and for your convenience I have ranked the securities in order from the largest potential % return to the least. To learn more about the buy/write option strategy, risks, pricing, calculations, other strategies, and options in general, click here.

Note that higher beta securities return higher percentages due to their levels of implied volatility, and because they are riskier.

MGM – MGM Mirage, Inc. – Option traders invested in put spreads on MGM this morning, perhaps to lock in gains on the 2% rally in shares today to $12.52. One investor selected the November contract where he purchased 4,800 puts at the November 11 strike for 80 cents apiece, and simultaneously sold 4,800 puts at the lower November 10 strike for 45 pennies each. The net cost of the spread amounts to 35 cents per contract. The investor responsible for the spread is likely long shares of the underlying stock. If this is the case, the put spread protects the long stock position in case shares decline 15% to fall beneath the breakeven point to the downside at $10.65. Finally, the other put spread on MGM involved the purchase of 6,400 puts at the December 12 strike for 1.60 apiece, against the sale of 5,000 puts at the lower December 10 strike for 70 cents each.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of September 25 - October 1, 2009, market sentiment became more bullish. The TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) was up 2.11 points in North America to 53.16 (see previous post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). The TSI Worldwide Index was also up, increasing 3.83 points to 51.42. Six sectors were bullish, while three were bearish and one was neutral. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM increased 3.50 points to 65.55%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, Penske Automotive Group (PAG), Bally Technologies (BYI), and Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while MGM Mirage (MGM) and Citrix Systems (CTXS) had short broker sentiment. In general, the consumer staples, financial, and telecommunications sectors had long broker sentiment, while the utilities, health care, and industrial sectors had short broker sentiment.

Sentiment

Stocks are trading mixed in a day of relatively quiet market action Tuesday. After a 124-point gain Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened a bit higher with help from better than expected home price data. The Case-Shiller Housing Price Index, released before the start of trading Tuesday, showed a decline of 13.3 percent for July, which follows a 15.4 percent drop in June and compares to economist estimates of -14.2 percent.

However, the early advance proved short-lived after a separate report, released thirty minutes into trading, showed an unexpected decline in September consumer confidence. According to the Conference Board's index, consumer confidence slipped to 53.1 this month, down from 54.5 in August and well below economist predictions of 57.00. The Dow slipped into the red on the news.

While it has been great and while I do believe that MGM has further upside potential in the long run, I think that for those who have been long so far, it is time to take profits and seek higher returns elsewhere.

The Market Week Ahead

The big important data reports this week are:

Tuesday: New Zealand 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product.

The upcoming September 24-25, G20 summit led by the U.S. contingent will propose ending all fossil fuel subsidies within five years. Currently, the G20 nation governments combined spend over $335 Billion annually for all fossil fuel subsidies including oil, gas and coal worldwide. Additionally, it costs governments about $1 trillion annually in related healthcare, climate warming and environmental cleanup of natural disasters linked to fossil fuels, according to several reports including from the National Defense Council Foundation and RAND Center National Security Research Division, 2009.

By eliminating hidden government subsidy costs, it would raise the price of a gasoline to about $5.28 per gallon making the typical fill-up of the average mid size 16 gal tank vehicle cost over $84 per visit.

Sentiment

Stocks are trading broadly higher late Wednesday. The stage was set for steady trading in the US after markets across Asia and Europe edged higher. Meanwhile, in the US, the day's economic data didn't hold any unpleasant surprises. A report released pre-market showed consumer prices increasing a bit more than expected last month. The Consumer Price Index [CPI] gained .4 percent in August, a bit more than the .3 percent economists had predicted. Stripping out food and energy, the core CPI rose .1 percent, which was in-line with estimates.

Data released later in the day showed industrial production up .8 percent and capacity utilization at 69.6 percent in August. Economists were looking for .6 percent and 69 percent.

With the September options expiration approaching us in just 4 days, I thought I would outline some trade ideas on stocks I wouldn't mind going long (with the exception of AIG), that would return good percentages in just 4 days. When using the buy/write option strategy, it is important that you are willing to hold the security in case it is below the strike price at options expiration. I have put together a list of stocks/ETFs which will return a nice percentage gain if they are above the strike price as of September options expiration, but will also protect (lower cost basis) to the downside in case the stock/ETF sells off slightly and expires below the strike price. The list below is a very tall one, and for your convenience I have ranked the securities in order from the largest percent return to the least. To learn more about the buy/write option strategy, risks, pricing, calculations, other strategies, and options in general, click here.

Note that higher beta securities return higher percentages due to their levels of implied volatility, and because they are riskier.

Regions Financial (RF) – Investors exhibited near-term bearish sentiment on RF today by piling into put options on the stock. Shares of Regions Financial have slipped 1% lower today to stand at the current price of $5.54. The heaviest volume was observed at the September 5.0 strike where about 31,000 puts look to have been purchased for an average premium of 11 cents apiece. More pessimistic traders looked to the lower October 4.0 strike to get long of 3,100 puts valued at 10 cents per contract. Perhaps traders exhibiting such behavior are long shares of the underlying stock. If this is the case, the put action was inspired by traders seeking downside protection through expiration next Friday and through October’s expiration day.

Sentiment

Stocks opened higher, but the early gains faded fast and the major averages have been under water throughout most of Friday's trading session. With very little tradable news to guide the early action, the Dow Jones Industrial Average extended this week's three-day 236-point advance heading into the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for September.

The data, released 25 minutes into the trading session, didn't disappoint. According to the index, sentiment improved to 70.2 in early September, up from 65.7 at the end of August and better than the 67.5 economists had predicted. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit session highs on the news.

It's not quite the proverbial canary in the coal mine, but it looks like one. Heck, when even Joe Sixpack's formerly obsessive spending habits are on the defensive you know something's changed. Such is the message that even gambling revenues from casinos and lotteries are facing a downfall for the first time, according to The New York Times.

"The decline [in gambling] comes as states are rapidly expanding gambling in hopes of stemming severe budget shortfalls, and it indicates that gambling is not insulated from broader economic forces like recessions, as has been argued in the past," the paper reports today.

In this post are 16 stocks which I will be keeping an eye on at least until September options expiration. These stocks have shown great strength, breaking out to the upside on extremely large volume. The table below shows the company, ticker, Wednesday's $ per share and % increase, and Wednesday's volume increase (% increased compared to 50 day average).

Vivus certainly had a wonderful day on the back of some very positive news, but I feel I may have missed the majority of the move, as news caused that to rocket. The stocks which are most attractive to me from the list above are: Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co., JDA Software Group, Inc., Rovi Corp, and MGM MIRAGE - ROVI and MGM did not have any direct headlines causing Wednesday's share price and volume increase.

MGM Mirage, Inc. (MGM) – The casino operator attracted bullish bets by option traders today amid a more than 7.5% rally in shares to $10.13. Notable near-term call interest was apparent at the September 11 strike price where more than 7,100 lots exchanged hands. Approximately 5,500 of the contracts were purchased for an average premium of 23 cents apiece. Investors long the calls will begin to accrue profits if shares of MGM can rise 11% higher to surpass the breakeven point at $11.23 by expiration in less than two weeks. Traders clearly favored MGM calls over puts during the session as evidenced by the call-to-put ratio of more than 3-to-1 on the stock today.