The Mosaic Company (MOS)

All Comments on MOS

  • commenter
    Socialism
    cannot
    compete!
    Oct 03 11:24 AM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    I was long POT and got longer a couple days ago. IMO, the drop was unwarranted. Sure, MOS missed by a bit...but they're *still* looking at tripling earnings over the previous fiscal year. The stock plummets 40%, even though potash pricing is still increasing? Thanks, but I'll hang in and take advantage of the panic selling. The real truth has nothing to do with the author's points, and everything to do with forced selling by the hedgies. Once folks stop panicking and capital flows back into the markets...the ags are going to spike.

    Long POT.     Reply
  • commenter
    manusceo
    Oct 03 11:22 AM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    Down slide almost totally a result of hedge fund unwinds and of course now the analysts jump in with downgrades--even though their targets remain 100-200% higher than current share prices!!! Reply
  • commenter
    anopenmind
    Oct 03 10:59 AM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    I now realize how much sway Jim Cramer has on stock prices, having started his doomsday jabs at Ag's few months ago. One statement a month ago had him positive on Potash; then, negative, leaving one wondering "what did he mean?". Personal gain for Cramer? Analysts, including Morningstar, had POT tracking toward $410 few months ago; then, $270; now, who knows. Others this week said "farmers won't get bank loans for planting season", striving to drive Ag's further downward. However, Reuters reports: Rural banks in U.S. farm country are not freezing credit to customers like large money center banks, offering a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy economy, industry experts said on Thursday. Rural banks are able to do so because they rely on core deposits for funding rather than commercial financing from Wall Street investors and have largely steered clear of the subprime housing loans. Farmers have made good profits and have solid credit with their farm and equipment assets...and, people still gotta eat. Ag's are not similar to segments like autos, airlines, retailers. There is always the core growing demand. Despite doom & gloom, I'm staying put with Pot, Mos, Agu, Mon.
    Reply
  • commenter
    Norman
    Lepoff, M.D.
    Oct 03 10:42 AM
    American Express to the Sell Block - Cramer's Mad Money (10/2/08) [view article]
    Why didn't he say to sell AMEX when it was 10 points higher? That's right, it is always buy high and sell low with Cramer. Anyone remember when FCX was a "bulletproof"... stock at 110? I sold GE and have had enough of these morons at CNBC. Reply
  • commenter
    jamookey
    Oct 03 09:45 AM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    Grain levels still at record lows.That statement says it all.Populations are exploding.Food shortages won't be an issue?I doubt that.The same reasons for the commodity gains are still out there.Reduced demand?how do you figure?Unless people start dropping dead at a high rate,I don't see the reduced demand.Look at oil.What has changed since they ran the price up to 149$?Do they think with cheaper gasoline that people will drive less?Don't look now but many areas in this country have no gasoline.I have had people fron N.Carolina to Florida tell me stations are out gas or getting shorted on their deliveries.Has Iran decided to play ball with the IAEA?See what I mean?Nothing has changed,but we are supposed to believe that there is more than enough oil,plenty of fodd so commodities are a dead issue.Bull. Reply
  • commenter
    cstauffer
    Oct 03 09:34 AM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    Fundamental analysis of the company behind a given stock is the only assessment of value for a given stock that is based in known inputs. Momentum caused by de-leveraging, sector rotation caused by program trades or false hope of a recovery in out of favor stocks or simply over-reaction to various reports that contradict long-term trends are much too unpredictable indicators for most investors to untilize. There is much more certainty associated with taking a company such as Mosaic, which today sells for a 2.5 forward PE and assign much more conservative earnings expectations and multiple to project a fair valuation for the stock. If this is done, it becomes very evident that the price of the stock today is significantly undervalued. These stocks are not dot.com stocks which had no earnings, no assets and no proven market. These stocks have substantial assets, strong balance sheets and an end market that is critical to the survival of the human race. Reply
  • commenter
    irondoor91
    Oct 03 09:00 AM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    The longer one continues with fundamental analysis and value-based investing in these names, the more money will be lost. The question is, how are these companies going to perform in a deflationary environment, and how do they scale back to respond to it. Reply
  • commenter
    cstauffer
    Oct 03 08:10 AM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    It is hard to argue that there was a lot of momentum in these stocks during the first half of 2008 and that for that reason expectations were too high. However, these stocks never really got significantly over-valued based upon even more realistic growth prospects. I believe that there is more a play here in recent price moves than a high momentum sector falling back to earth. If you take a look at non-fertilizer agriculture stocks such as AG, DE, and MON, they are also being hit extremely hard, while the world's grain inventories are still sitting at record lows. It is hard for me to believe that there has been significant demand destruction in the world over the last two months in soybean, wheat & corn to account for even a fraction of the multiple contraction that we have witnessed recently in agriculture stocks. Reply
  • commenter
    Joe Chase
    Oct 03 08:00 AM
    My Website
    American Express to the Sell Block - Cramer's Mad Money (10/2/08) [view article]
    PERMIAN NOT POERMIAN
    as in "Permian Basin Royalty Trust"     Reply
  • commenter
    Joe Chase
    Oct 03 08:00 AM
    My Website
    American Express to the Sell Block - Cramer's Mad Money (10/2/08) [view article]
    PERMIAN NOT POERMIAN
    as in "Permian Basin Royalty Trust"     Reply
  • commenter
    peachberry_t
    ea
    Oct 03 04:08 AM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    you've written an informative piece and my hat's off to you for that

    i don't think much has been said here that hasn't already. yes the earnings estimate were aggressive on these firms, and yes these firms were undervalued. but this was all true even before the 25% plunge yesterday.. the market is nuts, period

    at this valuation it's about time to buy in.. you could wait for another coupla analysts to revise estimates downward but that's really just timing a bottom, and no one can do that perfectly

    short term you'll have to stomach volatility but this should be a fine play long term

    disclosure: long POT     Reply
  • commenter
    Alexander77
    Oct 03 01:35 AM
    The Market Hates Mosaic: Phosphates Not Up to Snuff [view article]
    I think MOS is still strong company, investors are just dumping everything


    On Oct 02 11:06 PM Earnest wrote:

    > I shared your frustration. It's hard to stomach that fundmental doesn't
    > count anymore. It's more like an cat-mice game by the analysts. I
    > wonder why Merrill downgraded the sector but did not lower the "price
    > target"? Even S&P has $165 for CF, which was down a good 35% with
    > MOS.
    >
    > In looking at MOS's earning estimates in the past few quarters, only
    > 4 analysts gave estimate and with a difference of 0.20. How's that
    > an earning estimate statistical signaficance? Ironically, one of
    > the 4 actually raised estimate last month! So, are our analysts only
    > look at rear mirror?     Reply
  • commenter
    rogerk2
    Oct 02 11:34 PM
    American Express to the Sell Block - Cramer's Mad Money (10/2/08) [view article]
    Re: AMX - have you seen their latest commercial? "His VISA card was over the limit. His fiance told him to call American Express."

    Maybe that's why they're mired in credit defaults...they'll give you a card even if you're already in over your head in debt.     Reply
  • commenter
    Earnest
    Oct 02 11:06 PM
    The Market Hates Mosaic: Phosphates Not Up to Snuff [view article]
    I shared your frustration. It's hard to stomach that fundmental doesn't count anymore. It's more like an cat-mice game by the analysts. I wonder why Merrill downgraded the sector but did not lower the "price target"? Even S&P has $165 for CF, which was down a good 35% with MOS.

    In looking at MOS's earning estimates in the past few quarters, only 4 analysts gave estimate and with a difference of 0.20. How's that an earning estimate statistical signaficance? Ironically, one of the 4 actually raised estimate last month! So, are our analysts only look at rear mirror?     Reply
  • commenter
    John Galt
    Oct 02 10:17 PM
    The Market Hates Mosaic: Phosphates Not Up to Snuff [view article]
    POT seemed a better bet, but at these prices I may add some MOS now that the pain is in for POT as well.

    It's not just the world eating more, but eating better. Regardless of what happens with Chinese and Indian and Russian economic growth (which will affect steel, coal, and copper), it is notable that once a population shifts to higher protein diet it does not change back peacefully. Chinese leaders especially know this, and will let almost anything drop except food production and availability. They are also locked into potash contracts for at least a year, which is part of why potash has firmer pricing duirng this silly period.     Reply
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