The Mosaic Company (MOS)
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MOS Forum Topics
- All Comments on MOS
- General Discussion on MOS
- Potash Corp. Update: Time To Buy? [view article]
- What's in Store for the Fertilizer Industry? [view article]
- Potash Corp. Earnings Shouldn't Peak Until at Least 2011 [view article]
- Best and Worst Performing Stocks of the Current Bear Market [view article]
- Financial Downgrades Down Markets - Fast Money Recap (8/19/08) [view article]
- Hedge Fund Manager's Notebook: Pawn Shops and Railroads In, Oil and Commodities Out [view article]
- Buy, Sell, or Hold Fertilizer Stocks: Agriculture Bust (Part II) [view article]
- Barron's Drop - Fast Money Recap (8/18/08) [view article]
- World's Breadbasket Creates Record Earnings for the Fertilizers [view article]
- Heavy Rains Hurting Corn and Soybean Yields, Raising Prices [view article]
- Prisma Goes Contrarian on Potash Industry [view article]
loading ...Recent MOS Articles
- Potash Corp. Update: Time To Buy?
- What's in Store for the Fertilizer Industry?
- Best and Worst Performing Stocks of the Current Bear Market
- Potash Corp. Earnings Shouldn't Peak Until at Least 2011
- Financial Downgrades Down Markets - Fast Money Recap (8/19/08)
- Barron's Drop - Fast Money Recap (8/18/08)
- World's Breadbasket Creates Record Earnings for the Fertilizers
- Buy, Sell, or Hold Fertilizer Stocks: Agriculture Bust (Part II)
- Hedge Fund Manager's Notebook: Pawn Shops and Railroads In, Oil and Commodities Out
- Prisma Goes Contrarian on Potash Industry
- Full List of Articles »
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Agriculture: Are There Still Bulls in the Supermarket? [view article]
Amen, Dad! My only question is about natural gas prices & Mosaic cost of producing Nitrogen... Will it have that much of an effect?Good article all said & done! I really like MON & BG for the long term... By the way BG is really based in St. Louis too! Reply
Agriculture: Are There Still Bulls in the Supermarket? [view article]
Potash should be 250+ right now. The sell-off was a joke and was criminal. ReplyAgriculture: Are There Still Bulls in the Supermarket? [view article]
actually. POT's guidance for the full year is 12-13 USD. Comments from the CEO:``I don't see any downturn in our business,'' Doyle, 58, said today on a conference call. ``We see a lot of pricing momentum in our business. We don't see a peak.''This is one of the best management I ever met. I think the recent pullback creates an opportunity to buy back again ferts and commodities. Inflation is far from being over around the globe. And although gasoline inventories are starting to show a build up, Crude inventories suggest that the "Peak Oil" theory is still alive.
Very Good Article.
Reply
The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust [view article]
Ag may have lost it's glamour, but it's demand remains in tact. ReplyThe Agriculture Boom Goes Bust [view article]
my friend i have to correct you on your theory. Food demand doesn't go down like oil consumption has due to higher cost. Luxury foods might fall down a bit, but the basic necessities that most societies eat (fruits and veggies) need fertilizer to keep the crops producing and giving a strong harvest. Fertilizer demand won't fall off. The BRAC nations have an up and coming middle class who all want to lead better lives, just like the Americans have enjoyed. They'll be able to consume more of the items that in the past were not there for them. Hence bigger food demand equates into a bigger seed and fertilizer demand. We have reached a bump in the road, but even Wallstreet can't stop mankind from growing and evolving. Demand will go up as will AG stocks.On Jul 23 01:48 AM Jim Punkrockford wrote:
> I think we almost have it. The key will be demand. And demand has
> been strong due to high food COST, not high food demand. As soft
> commodities have come down, the demand for fertilizers will drop
> off. Also I agree that the risk reward right here is very bad in
> the short term. Disclosure I am short MOS. Reply
2
Agriculture: Are There Still Bulls in the Supermarket? [view article]
Right DAD08. ReplySchmeidler
Agriculture: Are There Still Bulls in the Supermarket? [view article]
Tough call here, but I think it is a good idea to be taking a breather here from the ag group. Oil has dropped significantly, so has gold. POT, for example, reported phenomenal Q-2 results, but it is starting to hit resistance trying to break the $210-220 level. One might think the stock is cheap right now considering the company expects to earn an annual $9.50 - $10.50 EPS. That would give the company a P/E of about 20 at $200 a share. the question is if the market is willing to bid this stock up to let's say P/E 25 ($260 stock price) based on the company's current full year guidance. Maybe, but I think there is also a possibility that fertilizer products such as Potash might experience similar downward price pressures as many other agricultural commodities have recently. ReplyAgriculture: Are There Still Bulls in the Supermarket? [view article]
I do not agree with the fertilizer companies (AGU, POT, MOS, CF, SQM) being associated with commodities. This group should have nothing to do with how commodities trade- however it seems the market still groups the fertilizer companies with the commodity groups. What we are dealing with here is simple- SUPPLY and DEMAND.I also must say- the group has NOT traded with a "nearly uninterrupted climb"-- There have been quite a few steep/sharp pullbacks which shake out short term players. It is important to note that each and every one of these pullbacks has been a tremendous opportunity to initiate a position or add to an existing postion- this is no different. Use this pullback to create a postion or add to an existing postion. MOS and CF report next week followed by AGU- I would bet we see a rotation back to what has worked in this market and an exit of the bear market bounce in financials.
Best of luck to all.
Disclosure- Long CF, SQM, AGU calls
Reply
Why I'm Cutting Some Fertilizer Exposure [view article]
It look's like Trade Mark was right. Mark, are you buying CF and POT today? ReplyThe Agriculture Boom Goes Bust [view article]
It is high time to think rationally for radical changes. The way energy sectors searching for renewable sources, the Fertiliser Society is to emulate them in searching for traditional/natural manures etc. This is the ultimate answer to the problem. Moreover, judicious utility of the limited non-renewable energy resources is to be practised by one and all honestly to the benefit of future generations. ReplyThe Agriculture Boom Goes Bust [view article]
natural gas plunges below $10.00 bucks on heavy selling. lets see thursday the natural gas inventories. weather has been hot suggesting usage, however it is turning milder. any build in nat gas will plunge to the 8's.....big boys will be crushed and fertilizer and industrials, consumers will be euphoric.....nat gas will build and plunge... Replyguy
The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust [view article]
WOW!Too many experts, I don't dare sell anything right at the moment. POT, Monsanto, MOS, Mechtel, almost anything having to do with earl (petroleum). No choice but to hang in and wait...hopefully not for a vortex spiraling further downward. Reply
The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust [view article]
I have just looked at the natural gas futures prices. They did peak near the end of June. Hence those prices may have effected this quarter's earnings. However, analysts have been raising estimates on earnings for companies such as Potash consistently. The old saying, "a hundred frenchmen can't be wrong", comes to mind. You have to think that POT will beat earnings. Add that natural gas prices are now back to their March levels. Add that Canpotex has recently raised pricing on potash (the commodity) by 21%. Further this raise is substantiated by worlwide price increases. You have to think that POT will guide higher -- considerably higher. What more could you want??? Replyt77
The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust [view article]
100% percent right, I think stocks with inelastic demand in what we need in these kind of marketsOn Jul 22 10:02 PM Rocknrollleg end193 wrote:
> Look at what you wrote here, Andrew:
>
> "It’s simple economics. Fertilizer prices are not inelastic. High
> prices are reducing total fertilizer use around the world. We could
> see a big impact on reduced consumption when the Q2 numbers come
> out in the next few days."
>
> Wrong. Fertilizer prices ARE relatively inelastic. As long as there's
> a strong demand for food, farmers are gonna try and grow it. In fact,
> the precise reason for the recent spike in fertilizer prices is BECAUSE
> of the ever-increasing world food demand. There's a pretty direct
> correlation between fertilizer prices and food prices, because as
> DeltaXray7 wisely said, "If farmers want good yields per acre then
> they have to fertilze [sic]." Reply
t77
The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust [view article]
I bought AGU I think it is a steal with its excellent earnings and prospects. The market has not fully valued this stockOn Jul 23 08:40 AM andyn wrote:
> Even with all these stock increases, forward P/E for AGU remains
> around 11... and remember they have already pre-announced an increase
> in earnings and the Indian/Chinese contracts are up for re-negotiation.
> This stock might explode to the upside if they guide further higher.
> Already the stock has retraced back from 110 to 95. Buy now and hang
> on atleast until end of the year. Reply