Yesterday, 12:34 PM
- The growing probability that China will devalue its currency could prove potentially “devastating" for fertilizer stocks because global nitrogen prices would plunge instantly with ammonia following in sympathy, Scotiabank's Ben Isaacson says.
- Potash demand destruction would be swift as Chinese farmers push back on soaring local prices required to cover unchanged U.S. dollar prices, although the phosphate market could be spared as lower-cost Chinese capacity would not be able to push non-integrated India producers off the cost curve, Isaacson says.
- "Commodities worldwide would suffer greatly,” the analyst says, noting that Agrium (AGU -1.1%) and Mosaic (MOS -0.9%) would be the better picks if a devaluation occurs but would still suffer “first-degree burns."
- Also: POT +0.4%, CF -1%, SQM -0.9%, IPI -0.5%.
Yesterday, 7:56 AM
Mon, Mar. 30, 4:59 PM
- Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) says changes to Saskatchewan's potash production tax will cost it $80M-$100M in 2015, and it expects to update all guidance, including CRT and Canadian Royalties, in its Q1 earnings release on April 30.
- The provincial government said earlier this month that it will require potash mining companies to spread out tax deductions on capital spending over a longer period of time, in an effort to plug a C$661M ($525M) drop in revenue from lower oil prices.
- Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) has said the changes will hurt its 2015 pre-tax earnings by C$75M-C$100M.
Mon, Mar. 30, 11:58 AM
- The Canpotex North American potash consortium says it has finalized 2015 supply contracts with all of its major customers in China.
- Canpotex says shipments to China will reach at least 1.8M metric tons, up from 1.6M in 2014, and may be as much as 2.5M metric tons, depending on supply, demand and logistics; the group does not release price terms but says the contracts are at "current competitive levels."
- Belarusian Potash said earlier this month it signed a contract with China to sell potash for $315/ton including shipping costs, which was $10 more than last year’s price.
- Canpotex represents Potash Corp. (POT +1.5%), Mosaic (MOS +2.6%) and Agrium (AGU +1.5%).
Thu, Mar. 19, 3:29 PM
- Shares of Potash (POT -4.1%) are sharply lower after the Saskatchewan government announced new tax measures in its budget, which the company warns could cut as much as $100M from its profit this year.
- POT says it is in the middle of a $6B investment in the province, and that any government change in the tax rules at this stage would be unfair to the company.
- Shares also are hurt as China and Belarus agreed to a $10/ton increase to $315/metric ton for H1 China potash shipments, disappointing major producers that had been publicly aiming for up to a 10% increase.
- Also: AGU -3.2%, MOS -2.1%, SQM -3.9%, IPI -5.2%.
Wed, Feb. 11, 9:09 AM
- Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) +1.4% premarket after Q4 earnings more than doubled on higher phosphate and potash sales in anticipation of the spring season.
- MOS expects strong demand to continue, as issues upbeat guidance for volumes of phosphate, its biggest revenue driver; for the current quarter, MOS projects phosphate volumes of 2.8M-3.1M tons vs. 2.7M tons in the year-ago quarter.
- Q4 phosphate sales rose 4% Y/Y to $1.6B, reflecting lower volume but higher finished-product prices; phosphate sales volumes totaled 3.3M tons, beating the company's expected range of 2.5M-2.8M tons.
- Q4 potash sales told the opposite story of higher volume and lower prices, rising 17% Y/Y to $763M; potash sales volumes totaled 2.3M tons, on the high end of the company's projection of 2M-2.3M tons.
- For the current quarter, MOS again expects potash sales volumes of 2M-2.3M tons, down from 2.4M tons last year.
Wed, Feb. 11, 7:03 AM
Tue, Feb. 10, 5:30 PM
Mon, Feb. 9, 12:59 PM
- Mosaic (MOS +0.9%) is upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $56 price target at Morgan Stanley, which believes the company's phosphate assets are undervalued on an absolute basis.
- The firm also cites MOS' relative valuation relative to key peer Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) as "too severe," and a balance sheet with spare capacity on both an absolute and relative basis.
- A key risk to the bullish thesis would be another large U.S. corn crop, Stanley says.
Mon, Jan. 19, 5:26 PM
- "Demand for potash and phosphates exceeded our expectations during the fourth quarter," says CEO Jim Prokopanko. "Customers came to the market in force."
- Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) expects Q4 EPS of $0.83-$0.88, after excluding notable items (which will add another dime to the results) vs. Street estimates at $0.57. The company sees business strengthening further into 2015.
- Full Q4 results are due on February 11.
- Today's news will also be of interest to owners of Potash (NYSE:POT), Agrium (NYSE:AGU), and Intrepid Potash (NYSE:IPI).
- Source: Press Release
Dec. 19, 2014, 2:54 PM
- Potash (POT +1.9%) is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a $40 price target, up from $38, at UBS, citing the company's strong dividend and improving free cash flow.
- UBS says the planned closure of Mosaic's Carlsbad operations in Jan. 2015 and the current flood at Uralkali's Solikamsk-2 mine could remove 2.4M -3.4M metric tons of combined capacity from the market and provides an opportunity for POT to gain more volumes, which also could lead to higher pricing.
- POT’s dividend yields ~4%, and UBS believes it provides downside protection given that the dividend can be funded even if potash prices remain flat; the firm thinks that over time POT may be able to return excess cash to shareholders through an increased dividend or further share repurchases.
- Other potash producers are higher: MOS +2%, AGU +0.4%, IPI +2.6%.
Dec. 18, 2014, 4:11 PM
Nov. 26, 2014, 12:11 PM
- Potash producers Agrium (AGU -2.6%), Potash Corp. (POT -0.3%), Mosaic (MOS -0.2%), CF Industries (CF -1.3%) and Intrepid Potash (IPI -1.1%) continue to give back the gains that followed Uralkali’s mine suspension, and BofA Merrill's downgrade of AGU hasn't helped.
- While BofA remains positive on earnings from nitrogen, it believes potash is oversupplied and global demand growth could regress from 2014's ~11% pace.
- But Stifel analysts are not throwing in the towel on the potash producers, citing potash supply constraints from declining North American producer inventories as well as the potential for the permanent closure of the Russian mine offsetting the negative impact of potentially lower North American planted corn acreage.
Nov. 24, 2014, 7:45 AM
- Uralkali (OTC:URALL) is preparing to restart operations at half of its potash mine in Russia where work was halted last week after an accident, CEO Dmitry Osipov says.
- The governor of the Perm region where the Solikamsk-2 mine is located says the inflow of water at the mine had "practically stopped" and there is no danger to residents of the area, where a large sinkhole has formed.
- POT -2.6% premarket; also watch MOS, AGU, IPI.
Nov. 19, 2014, 3:58 PM
- Potash (POT +1.2%) is upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform with a $40 price target, up from $38.50, at Raymond James after troubles at a mine owned by Russia’s Uralkali forced its closure; in the event Uralkali’s capacity remains handicapped, the firm thinks POT could benefit from a tighter potash market.
- Fertilizer peer Mosaic (MOS +1.7%) is upgraded to Positive by Susquehanna, which believes its potash operating leverage is underappreciated by investors, as the shares went up less than POT yesterday in response to the Uralkali news even as MOS has more relative earnings leverage to an improvement in potash prices than POT.
- Earlier: CF Industries upgraded at Credit Suisse, which sees better industry position
Nov. 19, 2014, 9:55 AM
- A sinkhole is found near Uralkali's (OTC:URALL) Solikamsk-2 potash mine in Russia, where work was suspended yesterday after a water inflow.
- Uralkali does not know how seriously the mine at Solikamsk-2, which accounts for 20% of the company's capacity, would be affected, but a water inflow and resulting sinkhole in 2006 shut another Uralkali mine in the same region permanently.
- North American potash producer shares jumped 2%-5% yesterday, and are up early again today: POT +2.5%, MOS +2.4%, AGU +0.7%, IPI +2.3%.
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