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The Mosaic Company (MOS)

- NYSE
  • Dec. 4, 2013, 3:59 PM
    • Fertilizer equities are higher following new coverage from RBC Capital, which prefers Mosaic (MOS +3.2%) and Agrium (AGU +2.4%) in the sector.
    • MOS and AGU are rated Outperform thanks to to a recent trend toward "improving demand in the potash and phosphate markets" and an expectation for "substantial" returns to holders over the next few years; MOS' solid position in the phosphate market could better position it if others are interested in its potash assets.
    • Potash (POT +1.3%), CF Industries (CF +10.7%) and Intrepid Potash (IPI +2.4%) are each started with Hold ratings.
    • Also impacting the ag names is news that CF is working with investment banks about creating an MLP.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | Comment!
  • Dec. 4, 2013, 3:52 PM
    • A bounce in potash markets is possible next year, assuming China steps back into the market and Russia and Belarus paper over differences that have disrupted the market, Potash Corp. (POT +1.4%) says at the Citi basic materials conference.
    • A supply contract in Q1 2014 between China and Canpotex - the export arm of Potash, Mosaic (MOS +3.3%) and Agrium (AGU +2.5%) - would set a price floor, then Indian buyers might lock in prices with Canpotex, followed by deals in other markets, setting up a chance for a "nice bounce" in H1 of next year, POT CFO Wayne Brownlee says.
    • POT says its decision to cut its workforce by ~18% will lead to cost reductions across the board; it anticipates a one-time cash charge in Q4 of ~$70M.
    | 1 Comment
  • Dec. 3, 2013, 6:15 PM
    • The layoffs and production cuts announced by Potash (POT) illustrate the key problem in the fertilizer sector: There has been no potash demand growth for six years while supply has been growing.
    • The job cuts have nothing to do with Uralkali's move to produce at full capacity, POT CEO Bill Doyle says; it's about demand weakness across all nutrients that began well before the chaos caused by Uralkali.
    • The two most important emerging markets for fertilizer are China and India, and demand is far lower than anticipated in both.
    • Barclays views the planned cuts as "a good and needed move" in response to the ills plaguing the industry.
    • Other fertilizer producers: MOS, AGU, IPI, CF, SQM.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 8 Comments
  • Nov. 22, 2013, 3:21 PM
    • The end of the uncertainty weighing on Potash (POT +0.1%) and Mosaic (MOS +2.2%) may be at hand, J.P. Morgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas writes, believing the point of Uralkali's (URALL) ownership change is the alteration of its go-to-market strategy, and an execution of a change in strategy should raise the value of POT and MOS given their sensitivity to changes in product prices.
    • POT and MOS are "undervalued," the firm says: Both companies have replacement values nearly twice their current share prices, POT has a 7.5%-8% sustainable free cash flow yield following the conclusion of its large potash capacity expansion, and MOS has a large share repurchase program it plans to execute beginning at the end of this month.
    | 18 Comments
  • Nov. 21, 2013, 7:58 AM
    • Belarus agrees to extradite Uralkali (URALL) CEO Vladislav Baumgertner to Russia, days after a buyer was found for the stake of Uralkali’s biggest owner.
    • At least one analyst thinks Baumgertner will resign; a lot depends on the attitude of the Belarus president toward him, and "given that it may be not warm, it would be easier for Uralkali to negotiate the terms of the new trading venture with Belarus with another CEO.”
    • Baumgertner was arrested in August and spent a month in a Belarusian jail after he withdrew his company from a joint venture with potash supplier Belaruskali.
    • Related tickers: POT, MOS, AGU, SQM, IPI.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | Comment!
  • Nov. 18, 2013, 3:31 PM
    • The EPA's proposal to reduce ethanol mandate requirements represents a setback for fertilizer producers, Cowen analysts say; the reduction could negatively impact corn markets, driving prices below $3.50/bushel which in turn also would impact demand and pricing for fertilizers (Briefing.com)
    • The firm believes the proposed changes present setbacks for corn growers and fertilizer producers of all types but especially nitrogen producers, since nitrogen is applied heavily to corn acres and soybeans get a negligible application of nitrogen.
    • Cowen foresees a negative impact on POT, AGU, MOS, IPI and to a greater extent on CF, RNF and UAN.
    | Comment!
  • Nov. 18, 2013, 4:12 AM
    • Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov - owner of the Brooklyn Nets - has agreed to acquire a 21.75% stake in Uralkali (URALL), the world's biggest potash miner, from the company's main owner, Dagestani tycoon Suleyman Kerimov.
    • Kerimov and his partners own a third of Uralkali, while China Investment Corp, China's sovereign wealth fund, purchased a 12.5% holding in September.
    • Uralkali caused turmoil in the potash markets after it ended its joint venture with Belarusian state-owned miner Belaruskali in July. The JV, called Belarusian Potash Co, controlled around 40% of the global market and so had a major influences on prices.
    • Following the breakup, Belarus arrested Uralkali CEO Vladislav Baumgertner in August, since when he has been in jail or under house arrest. (Previous)
    • Related tickers: POT, MOS, AGU, SQM, IPI.
    • Related ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 6 Comments
  • Nov. 15, 2013, 9:40 AM
    • Suleiman Kerimov and his business partners, who jointly control ~33% of potash maker Uralkali (URALL), may reach an agreement to sell the stake as soon as next week, Bloomberg reports.
    • Mikhail Prokhorov’s Onexim Group is the front-runner to take control, according to the report; the stake has a value of ~$5B.
    • POT +1%, MOS +0.8%, AGU +0.3%, SQM +0.2%, IPI +0.2%.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 5 Comments
  • Nov. 14, 2013, 10:28 AM
    • Markel's (MKL) Tom Gayner added five new stocks to the company portfolio in the last quarter, and he likes fertilizers and private equity, buying 150K shares of Mosaic (MOS) and 70K shares of Potash (POT), 100K shares of Apollo Global (APO), 105K shares of Apollo Group (APOL), and 10K shares of Copart (CPRT). In addition to the Apollo Global purchase, he greatly boosted stakes in KKR, Blackstone (BX), and Carlyle Group (CG).
    • He completely sold out of positions in Quaterra Resources (QMM) and Union First Market Bankshares (UBSH).
    • CarMax (KMX) remains his portfolio's top holding at 8.4%, but Gayner did cut his stake by 1.46%.
    | Comment!
  • Nov. 7, 2013, 6:14 PM
    • Mosaic (MOS +1.3%) raises $2B in bond sales as a company restriction on share buybacks/dividends is set to expire on Nov. 26. The freeze was placed back in the 2004 merger that created the company.
    • The company sold $900M of 4.25% bonds due in 2023, $500M of 5.45% bonds due in 2033, and $600M of 5.625% bonds due in 2043.
    • Proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, share buybacks, and/or dividends.
    | Comment!
  • Nov. 5, 2013, 3:15 PM
    • North American demand for fertilizers looks strong for the rest of 2013 but pricing might prove challenging in 2014, Mosaic (MOS -1.8%) CEO Jim Prokopanko said in the conference call after reporting sharply lower Q3 earnings.
    • With potash prices weak, MOS might curtail production at its high-cost Carlsbad, N.M., mine, depending on where prices move, but also may be interested in buying other North American potash assets, Prokopanko said.
    • "At the right valuations, those kind of combinations might prove of interest," he said when asked about potential interest in Intrepid Potash (IPI +0.5%) or a Canadian potash mine under construction by Germany's K+S; IPI shares spiked briefly on the news, but have settled into a modest gain.
    | 1 Comment
  • Nov. 5, 2013, 8:12 AM
    • Mosaic (MOS) -0.2% premarket after Q3 earnings fell 70% and missed estimates, primarily driven by lower prices and lower North American sales volumes.
    • Q3 phosphate net sales fell 18% to $1.4B, primarily driven by lower finished product prices, and phosphate sales volume was 2.7M metric tons vs. 2.9M in the year-ago period; potash net sales fell 44% to $523M, due to lower domestic shipment volumes and lower realized prices, and potash sales volume was 1.4M metric tons vs. 1.8M a year ago.
    • Q4 phosphate sales volumes are expected at 2.5M-2.9M metric tons vs. 2.8M last year, at an average selling price of $370-$400/metric ton; gross margin percentage is estimated to be flat Q/Q.
    • Q4 potash sales volumes are expected at 1.5M-1.9M metric tons vs. 1.4M in the year-ago period, at an average selling price of $285-$310/ metric ton; gross margin rate is seen in the mid-20% range.
    • Says it will exit its underperforming distribution businesses in Argentina and Chile; also will close a small potash mine at Hersey, Mich., and sell its salt operation.
    | 1 Comment
  • Nov. 5, 2013, 7:01 AM
    • Mosaic (MOS): Q3 EPS of $0.51 misses by $0.04.
    • Revenue of $1.9B. (PR)
    | Comment!
  • Nov. 5, 2013, 12:05 AM
  • Nov. 4, 2013, 5:30 PM
  • Nov. 4, 2013, 3:22 PM
    • Potash producers have been reeling, but HSBC thinks the worst of the crisis has passed and prices may rise in the medium term, prompting the firm to upgrade Potash (POT +4.3%), Agrium (AGU +3.9%) and SQM (SQM +5.1%).
    • POT is raised to Neutral from Underweight with a $31 price target, up from $22.50, while AGU to lifted to Overweight from Neutral and a $105 target from $95; Mosaic (MOS +1.2%) is reiterated at Underweight but with a higher target, to $40 from $33.
    • The eventual return of Indian demand means phosphates have the clearest road to recovery of the crop nutrients, the firm believes.
    | 5 Comments
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Company Description
Mosaic Coproduces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients.Itis organized into the two business segments: Phosphates and Potash.