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The Mosaic Company (MOS)

- NYSE
  • Oct. 11, 2013, 2:22 PM
    • Potash's (POT -1.5%) downside Q3 guidance shouldn't come as a surprise, particularly after Agrium cut its forecast earlier this week as CEO Mike Wilson said "the soap opera in Russia" was weighing on potash prices.
    • The revision reflects "acute market uncertainty" battering global potash markets, Raymond James analyst Steve Hansen says; with potash prices moving sharply lower across most importing regions, “buyers seem intent on deferring purchases with the hope of securing lower prices and improved macro visibility in the future.”
    • But analysts say competition among suppliers is intensifying amid negotiations with the Chinese who are among the top potash buyers, pointing to a further fall in prices.
    • Also, MOS -2.1%, AGU +1%, IPI -0.2%, CF -1%, SQM -2.1%.
    | 1 Comment
  • Oct. 8, 2013, 3:36 PM
    • The Russian potash "soap opera" could weigh on prices until demand rises substantially or producers shut some capacity, Agrium (AGU -3.7%) CEO Mike Wilson says at the fertilizer company's investor day.
    • The structure of the potash market has to go back to where it was before Russia's Uralkali quit its export partnership with Belaruskali, and some producers need to shut capacity, or demand has to soar above 60M metric tons, Wilson says; otherwise, prices will remain under pressure.
    • POT -1.1%, MOS -0.3%, CF -2.5%, IPI -3.4%.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 1 Comment
  • Oct. 7, 2013, 6:13 PM
    • Mosaic (MOS) lowers its outlook for 2013 global potash shipments, citing weaker demand in India and a delay in settling a second-half contract between its export agency Canpotex and China's Sinofert Holdings.
    • CFO Larry Stranghoener says he sees global potash shipments of 54M-55M metric ton, down from its previous estimate of 55M-57M metric tons but higher than 2012's 51M; by 2014, global shipments should rebound to 57M-59M.
    • MOS, Potash (POT) and Agrium (AGU) sell potash to offshore markets through the Canpotex export consortium.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 2 Comments
  • Oct. 4, 2013, 4:02 PM
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  • Oct. 3, 2013, 9:47 AM
    • Global potash prices will stay above $300/metric ton but likely will fall further this year, bottoming out in early 2014 when supply contracts for top global consumer China are set, and rebounding thereafter, according to Uralkali's (URALL.PK) head of sales.
    • He gives no current average price, but says the domestic price in China of ~$330/metric ton delivered at the border was a "guideline" for the company's rail supplies.
    • Recent reports have said a large stake in Uralkali could be sold to one of several local bidders, but sources tell Reuters that no buyers are close to a deal now.
    • POT +0.5%; MOS +0.1%; AGU, which named a new CEO, +1.2%; IPI -0.4%.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
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  • Oct. 2, 2013, 2:02 PM
    • Agriculture and potash names are moving higher following a WSJ story suggesting a large stake in Russian potash giants Uralkali (URALL.PK +3.3%) likely will be sold to one of several local investors bidding for the company.
    • Sources say the Kremlin is eager to repair the rift with Belarus that led to the collapse of the informal global potash cartel and has made clear to potential bidders that some kind of sales cooperation with the country - a close Russian ally - should be restored after any deal.
    • POT +3%, MOS +3.6%, AGU +2.2%, IPI +3.4%.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 5 Comments
  • Sep. 30, 2013, 3:29 PM
    • Indian Potash says it has renegotiated an annual contract for the import of ~1M metric tons of potash at a 12%-plus discount following the breakup of a global fertilizer grouping led by Russia's Uralkali (URALL.PK), which says it is now pursuing a volume-over-price strategy.
    • Indian potash importers, who form the second biggest buyer group after China, sought discounts on their current contracts following the breakup and said the slide in the rupee vs. the dollar since May had made imports more expensive for them.
    • POT -1.1%, MOS -1%, AGU -1.3%, IPI -0.6%.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 2 Comments
  • Sep. 26, 2013, 7:53 AM
    • The CEO of Russian potash producer Uralkali (URALL.PK) is released from a Belarusian prison and placed under house arrest, signaling that the dispute over potash price may be nearing an end.
    • The transfer to house arrest comes as Russian Pres. Putin is scheduled to meet today with Belarus Pres. Lukashenko and after Russia's prosecutor general met with his Belarus counterpart earlier this week.
    • Stocks to watch: POT, MOS, AGU, IPI.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | Comment!
  • Sep. 24, 2013, 10:20 AM
    • Potash stocks are lower after China acquired a 12.5% stake in Russian potash producer Uralkali (URALL.PK -1.4%), a deal that could put new pressure on prices and reduce the chances of the Russia-Belarus cartel being revived.
    • The deal could strengthen China's position in negotiations with other producers; China imports ~6M metric tons/year of potash, more than 10% of global demand, and the Chinese potash price is considered the global benchmark.
    • The deal also could give Uralkali an upper hand in selling potash in the Chinese market ahead of Canpotex, the North American potash cartel owned by Potash (POT -1.4%), Mosaic (MOS -1.4%) and Agrium (AGU -0.8%).
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 2 Comments
  • Sep. 19, 2013, 2:26 PM
    • The president of Belarus hints for the first time at a possible resolution in the potash fight that has rocked global markets, suggesting he is open to the idea of sending the jailed Uralkali (URALL.PK) CEO back to Russia for prosecution there.
    • Belarus officials reportedly issued a copy of their case file against the CEO to Russian authorities last week as the first step in possibly sending him back to Russia, where he could stand trial without being held in custody.
    • Analysts say while a settlement in the potash case may be close, it is unclear if a renewed partnership would ever be able to restore the market to where it was.
    • POT -2.1%, MOS -1.3%, AGU -1.1%, IPI -3.9%, SQM -1.4%.
    | 1 Comment
  • Sep. 18, 2013, 10:41 AM
    • Belarus is not willing to lower its potash prices as a cut would cause losses, a top government official says in comments viewed as raising the chance of reviving a sales cartel with Russia.
    • Belarus is willing to cooperate with Uralkali (URALL.PK) in the future "in any format," the official says, when asked if the country would consider forming a new joint venture with the Russian firm; "our cooperation [with Uralkali] was a positive experience."
    • POT -0.2%, MOS -0.2%, AGU -0.2%, IPI +0.4%.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 1 Comment
  • Sep. 17, 2013, 11:59 AM
    • Russia continues to ratchet up the pressure on Belarus amid the potash spat, as an export schedule shows it will cut oil pipeline supplies to the country by 42% in Q4.
    • According to the schedule, Russia will ship 3.1M metric tons of oil (62K bbl/day) to refineries in Belarus via pipeline in October-December, down from 5.3M metric tons originally planned for Q3.
    • Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft also has said oil shipments to Belarus would be cut by 233K metric tons in September due to pipeline repairs.
    • POT -1.8%, MOS -0.8%, AGU -1.4%, IPI -1%, SQM -0.9%.
    | 4 Comments
  • Sep. 17, 2013, 9:43 AM
    • Fertilizer producers open lower - but perhaps not as much as feared - after Mosaic (MOS -1.4%) cut its Q3 price and volume estimates in its potash and phosphates businesses, citing caution from dealers in the short term that has resulted in deferred purchases.
    • Mosaic’s previous financial forecast had been made just two weeks before the breakup of the Russian potash marketing cartel; since then, “international crop nutrient markets have softened in part as a result of the distributors’ cautiousness,” the company says.
    • POT -1.5%, AGU -0.5%, IPI -0.7%, CF -0.2%.
    • ETFs: SOIL, MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
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  • Sep. 16, 2013, 4:48 PM
    • Mosaic (MOS) -3% AH after lowering Q3 price and volume guidance for its potash and phosphates segments.
    • In potash, MOS expects volume of 1.45M-1.65M metric tons vs. earlier guidance of 1.8M-2.1M, reflecting lower near-term demand, and realized prices of $330-$340/metric ton (down $20 on the top end).
    • In phosphates, MOS sees volume of 2.6M-2.8M metric tons vs. 2.9M-3.3M earlier, and realized prices of $430-$440/metric ton (down $25 on the top end), as distributors' cautious sentiment with respect to potash is spilling over.
    • MOS says its long-term positive outlook for crop nutrient demand has not changed, but in the short term dealers are cautious and deferring purchases.
    | 2 Comments
  • Sep. 16, 2013, 2:49 PM
    • Shares of potash companies again push higher on reports that Uralkali (URALL.PK) could consider rejoining Belarus in a new pact.
    • Russian financial daily Vedomosti outlined as many as seven potential sale options for main Uralkali owner Suleiman Kerimov and his partners, including one positing Rosneft (RNFTF.PK), which has cash in hand thanks to the dividend streams it receives from its energy holdings, as one potential buyer.
    • "Rosneftegaz can consider anything, if someone makes an approach," holding company chairman Igor Sechin reportedly says, leaving the door open to a potential nationalization.
    • POT +2.5%, MOS +0.2%, AGU +2.7%, IPI +8.5%, SQM +0.5%.
    | 1 Comment
  • Sep. 13, 2013, 11:58 AM
    • Rumors that Russian billionaire Suleiman Kerimov is selling his 21.7% stake in potash producer Uralkali (URALL.PK) reach a fever pitch, as news agency RIA Novosti reports a $3.7B sale to investor Vladimir Kogan; so far, neither party has issued a comment.
    • POT +3.9%, MOS +3.8%, AGU +1.7%, IPI +6.1%, SQM +2%.
    • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | 2 Comments
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Company Description
Mosaic Coproduces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients.Itis organized into the two business segments: Phosphates and Potash.