Mar. 5, 2014, 6:06 PM
- After growing ~60% in 2013 (and fueling global shipment growth of 39%), IDC expects Chinese smartphone shipment growth to slow to ~20% in 2014 and just ~10% in 2015.
- Though only 40% of China's 1B+ mobile users now use a smartphone, IDC's Kiranjeet Kaur notes most users who can comfortably afford a smartphone have already bought one. Plunging low-end Android prices could expand the addressable market in a country whose nominal per capita GDP is around $6K.
- India, which has a sub-10% smartphone penetration rate, still presents a major growth opportunity. But with a nominal per capita GDP of ~$1,500, the country is even more cost-sensitive than China.
- With China slowing down and developed markets living up to their name, IDC expects global smartphone growth to slow to 19% in 2014; that still spells total volumes of 1.2B. Tough competition and the ongoing mix shift towards emerging markets is expected to lead the industry's ASP to fall $27 to $308.
- Smartphone OEMs with strong Chinese exposure: AAPL, SSNLF, LNVGY, ZTCOY
- Chip suppliers: QCOM, BRCM, CRUS, SWKS, RFMD, MRVL
- Chinese carriers: CHL, CHU, CHA
Feb. 24, 2014, 4:14 AM
- Chip makers such as Intel (INTC) and Broadcom (BRCM) are using the Mobile World Congress to demonstrate technology that will increase network speeds.
- One new service is expected to provide download rates of up to 300 megabits a second, four to six times the top speeds of existing LTE networks.
- The companies are out to chip away at the dominance of Qualcomm (QCOM), which holds 9% of the LTE market.
- Other companies that are putting out decent LTE chips include Nvidia (NVDA), MediaTek, Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Spreadtrum Communications (SPRD).
- More on the Mobile World Congress.
Feb. 20, 2014, 5:41 PM
- Aruba Networks (ARUN) expects FQ3 revenue of $178M-$182M and EPS of $0.19-$0.20, largely favorable to a consensus of $174.6M and $0.19. The company has also announced a new $200M buyback authorization, and says the $200M authorized in October has been spent. Shares +4.8% AH. (FQ2 results, PR)
- Marvell (MRVL) expects FQ1 revenue of $870M-$910M and EPS of $0.20-$0.24 vs. a consensus of $848.9M and $0.21. Shares -2.6% AH. (FQ4 results, PR)
- Maxwell (MXWL) expects Q1 revenue to be "flat to slightly up" in Q1 from a Q4 level of $39M. The Q1 consensus is at $39.2M. Shares -7.2% AH. (Q4 results, PR)
- QLIK expects Q1 revenue of $110M-$114M and EPS of -$0.14 to -$0.12, vs. a consensus of $113.2M and -$0.05. Full-year guidance is for revenue of $545M-$555M and EPS of $0.23-$0.27 vs. a consensus of $550.4M and $0.41. Shares +1% AH. Expectations have been muted. (Q4 results, PR)
Feb. 20, 2014, 4:08 PM
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Jan. 22, 2014, 6:22 PM
- Though it beat FQ2 (Dec. quarter) estimates, Western Digital (WDC) has guided on its CC for FQ3 revenue of $3.65B-$3.75B and EPS of $1.80-$1.90, mostly below a consensus of $3.73B and $1.95. The company blames a seasonally weaker hard drive market and lower factory utilization.
- Western is down 2% AH. Archrival Seagate (STX), which reports on Monday, is down 2.1%, as is hard drive/SSD controller supplier Marvell (MRVL).
- Western estimates the total addressable market (TAM) for hard drives was 142M in FQ2; that's slightly above guidance for TAM to be roughly flat with an FQ1 level of 139M. Gaming was an area of strength, no doubt thanks to the Xbox One/PS4 launches.
- FQ2 gross margin was 30.1%, +30 bps Q/Q and +140 bps Y/Y, and slightly better than guidance. FQ3 gross margin is expected to be near the midpoint of Western's 27%-32% model range (implies 29.5%).
- $150M was spent on buybacks, and 54% of revenue came from non-PC applications. ASP rose by $2 Q/Q to $60, thanks to a stronger mix of branded drive and distributor sales.
- FQ2 results, PR, prepared remarks, datasheet
Jan. 16, 2014, 4:59 PM
- Pantas Sutardja, Marvell's (MRVL) CTO and the brother of CEO Sehat Sutardja, has resigned. Zining Wu, until now responsible for Marvell's storage chip R&D efforts, is replacing him. (PR)
- The announcement comes shortly after Marvell stated in a legal filing it isn't holding talks with P-E firm KKR (has disclosed a 6.8% stake) regarding a buyout or other major transaction.
Jan. 16, 2014, 10:34 AM
- Two weeks after KKR disclosed a 6.8% stake in Marvell (MRVL -1.7%), Marvell insists it isn't talking with the P-E firm about a buyout or any other major transaction.
- In November, Bloomberg reported KKR had discussed taking Marvell private in partnership with its founding family.
- Marvell's comments come after U.S. district judge Nora Barry Fischer denied a Marvell request to cut a $1.17B Dec. '12 jury verdict in Carnegie Mellon's infringement suit by more than half.
- Fischer rejected Marvell's assertion that Carnegie shouldn't receive damages for chip sales that occurred before its suit was filed because the university waited too long to do so. Marvell has begun phasing out the use of Carnegie's IP, but sales of infringing hard drive controller chips will continue this year.
Jan. 10, 2014, 9:44 AM
- Microsoft (MSFT +1.2%) has been upgraded to Overweight by Jefferies. The upgrade follows a moderate drop caused by disappointment Alan Mulally is no longer a CEO candidate.
- BlackBerry (BBRY +1.1%) has been upgraded to Sector Perform by RBC. Shares have already seen a big run-up since the company's FQ3 report.
- Baidu (BIDU +1.3%) has been upgraded to Buy by Maxim.
- Micron (MU +0.2%) has been upgraded to Buy by Jefferson Research, and started at Buy by Argus and Sterne Agee. The moves come two days after shares blasted off in response to a very strong FQ1 report (I, II).
- Splunk (SPLK -2.1%) has been cut to Equal Weight by Barclays. The downgrade shortly follows a UBS upgrade to Buy. SA Pro contributor ZNCapital recently took aim at Splunk's valuation.
- Ambarella (AMBA -1.8%) has been cut to Hold by Deutsche. Needham cut the chipmaker to Hold two days ago.
- Marvell (MRVL +1.9%) has been started at Buy by MKM.
- Qlik (QLIK +2.1%) has been upgraded to Buy by Jefferies.
Dec. 31, 2013, 9:14 AM
Dec. 30, 2013, 5:39 PM
Dec. 30, 2013, 4:36 PM
- P-E firm KKR has disclosed a 33.6M-share (6.8%) stake in Marvell (MRVL), and says it may hold discussions with the chipmaker on a variety of subjects. (13D)
- The Daily Telegraph and Bloomberg reported last month KKR had acquired a ~5% stake in Marvell. Bloomberg added KKR has discussed taking Marvell private in partnership with CEO Sehat Sutardja and his brother/CTO Pantas.
- The Sutardja brothers own 20% of Marvell, and David Einhorn holds a 9% stake.
Dec. 26, 2013, 4:22 PM
Dec. 12, 2013, 11:51 AM
- Cisco (CSCO -2.3%) is now targeting annual revenue growth of 3%-6% over the next 3-5 years, down from a prior 5%-7%, says CFO Frank Calderoni states at the networking giant's analyst meeting. In addition, Calderoni says Cisco's FY14 (ends July '14) revenue growth outlook is "basically" in-line with a Street forecast for a 4% decline.
- Cisco is now aiming for services revenue growth of 7%-10% over the next 3-5 years, down from 9%-11%; services accounted for 22% of Cisco's Oct. quarter revenue. Businesses related to "enabling the cloud" (a somewhat nebulous term) are expected to show a 12%-18% growth rate.
- Cisco, already pressured by John Chambers' macro comments, continues to trade lower. Many networking equipment peers and component/chip suppliers are also selling off; in addition to Cisco, Ciena's mixed FQ4 results and slightly soft FQ1 guidance could be playing a role here.
- Notable networking equipment/component/chip decliners: JNPR -3.1%. BRCM -2.5%. PKT -2.8%. FFIV -2.2%. ERIC -2.1%. JDSU -1.9% (getting pulled from the S&P 500). AFOP -5.5%. CAVM -1.7%. AMCC -1.8%. BRCD -1.8%. MRVL -1.6%. ARUN -1.7%. CALX -1.7%.
Dec. 10, 2013, 9:22 AM
- Two months after providing disappointing Q4 guidance, Broadcom (BRCM) has upped its revenue guidance range for the quarter to $2B-$2.05B from a prior $1.975B (+/- 3%). (PR)
- In addition, the chipmaker now expects it Q4 gross margin to be down 50-75 bps Q/Q (prior guidance was for a 50-100 bps drop), and for its R&D/SG&A expenses to be up only $30M-$50M Q/Q (prior guidance was for a $30M-$50M increase). The guidance hike comes as Broadcom's analyst day gets going (webcast).
- Broadcom attributes the improved top-line guidance to "better-than-expected revenue in each reportable segment, particularly in Infrastructure & Networking." It's worth noting optical component vendor Finisar recently provided strong guidance, thanks in large part to healthy data center-related sales. The major investments being made by Web/cloud service providers in their data center infrastructures could be playing a role.
- Broadcom's guidance could have positive implications for networking chip rivals Marvell (MRVL), Cavium (CAVM), and LSI.
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