Mon, Aug. 31, 11:19 AM
- “When you feel like crying, it’s time to start buying," says analyst Glenn Schorr and team, boosting both Goldman (GS +0.7%) and Morgan (MS +1.6%) to Buy from Hold.
- Valuations look good after the roughly 15% pullback in both - with Goldman going for 9.7x earnings and 1.1x book, and Morgan at 9.2x and 1.0x.
- Q3 looks like it's been a tough one so far, but the quarter isn't over yet, and boosted volatility should mean higher volumes in both banks' FICC business.
- He also notes positive seasonality: While Sept. can be sluggish (and this year should prove no exception thanks to a late Labor Day and 2 mid-week Jewish holidays), October and December have proven to be strong months.
Thu, Aug. 27, 10:06 AM
- A rare growth business for Wall Street banks has been loans backed by investment portfolios, but with margin calls being issued this week, profits could take a hit if clients pull back from borrowing.
- Morgan Stanley (MS +1.6%) had $25.3B in securities-based loans outstanding as of June 30, up 37% year-over-year. Bank of America (BAC +0.2%) had $38.6B of the loans, up 14.2%. Wells Fargo (WFC +1.1%) had $59.3B, up 16%.
- The amounts are small compared to overall bank lending, but change comes at the margin, and the largest brokerage firms have reported higher securities-based loan balances each quarter for more than two years.
- Look for profits at bank wealth-management units to decline in coming quarters, says Portales Partners' Charles Peabody, in part thanks to declines in securities lending.
- Source: WSJ
Wed, Aug. 26, 2:42 PM
- No financial sector stocks are immune to the "higher risk" themes of energy, interest rates, and emerging markets, say Nomura's Steven Chubak and Sharon Leung, but they have picked three oversold ones offering big long-term value.
- Morgan Stanley (MS +3.7%), says the team, has been disproportionately punished over energy concern, E*Trade (ETFC +3.1%) for rates (the chance they're not headed higher), and Lazard (LAZ +2.9%) for its exposure to emerging markets/China.
- Long-term earnings potential supports more than 30% upside at all three, they say.
- The team is also bullish on Citigroup (C +2.9%), but note the stock has been surprisingly resilient despite heavy leverage to both emerging markets and rates. They thus prefer Morgan.
Wed, Aug. 19, 3:42 PM
- The new venture - Securities Product Reference Data, or SPReD - is likely to be launched in the next six to 12 months, reports the WSJ, with each of JPM, GS, and MS investing seven figures.
- The company will pull together and clean massive amounts of reference data on financial instruments at a lower cost than what each bank would spend on its own.
- With revenue growth slow and compliance costs on the on a fast rise, banks are under pressure to find savings wherever possible. Noninterest expenses at the six largest U.S. banks by assets rose 11.9% from 2009 to 2014. Data management spending is typically in the tens of millions of dollars, but can go as high as nine figures for the largest lenders, according to Deloitte Consulting.
Fri, Jul. 31, 7:52 AM
- According to Reuters, the value of merger and acquisition deals through July 30 was $436.4B, including 14 deals worth over $5B apiece. Although down from June's torrid pace of $546.8B, it still ranks as the seventh busiest month on record. Leading the pack was Teva's $40.5B purchase of Allergan's generic drugs business.
- The top investment bank in terms of the total value of transactions was Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), involved in 35 deals worth $148.8B, including half of the top ten. JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) was second with 30 deals worth $116.1B while Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) was third with 33 deals valued at $95.9B.
- Global M&A so far this year is $2.64T, up 41% from last year. The action in the U.S. is up 66%.
- Energy and healthcare are the leading sectors. There have been 1,557 deals in energy worth $407B. Healthcare is close behind with 1,577 deals worth $395B.
- ETFs: UNG, USO, OIL, UGAZ, UCO, DGAZ, UWTI, BIB, SCO, BNO, BOIL, GAZ, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, KOLD, USL, GRX, UNL, IRY, BIS, IXJ, DNO, BME, UHN, DBE, OLO, SZO, DCNG, GRN, RJN, FUE, OLEM, JJE, ONG, UBN
Mon, Jul. 27, 8:13 AM
- Investa Property Group is Australia's 3rd-largest owner of downtown office buildings with about a A$9B portfolio, and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) put the operation up for sale earlier this year.
- Among the more than 20 bidders for Investa were Blackstone and Brookfield Asset Management, but the winner is China Investment Corporation. No price was disclosed, but Reuters reports Investa fetched more than A$3B.
- Previously: Blackstone, Brookfield reportedly among bidders for billions in Aussie real estate (April 21)
Fri, Jul. 24, 3:31 PM
- Goldman's (GS -1.8%) Q2 results confirmed the team's expectation of positive revisions to 2016 consensus EPS. Zions (ZION -0.7%) has "multiple catalysts" to reach improve profitability goals and EPS growth over the next three years.
- Guggenheim's four key investment themes: 1) Names levered to improving M&A, with Goldman being the best idea, followed by Morgan Stanley (MS -1.3%); 2) Restructuring stories, with Zions the best idea, but First Horizon (FHN -1%), Ally Financial (ALLY -1.8%), and BofA (BAC -1.6%) also worth looking at; 3) Idiosyncratic growth stories like MasterCard (MA +0.7%), Visa (V +4.5%), Synchrony Financial (SYF -2.4%), and Signature Bank (SBNY -0.8%); 4) Names with a distinct M&A catalyst in the regionals group like BB&T (BBT -1.5%), CIT Group (CIT -1.6%), and Springleaf (LEAF -1.4%).
- Mixed results from credit card companies affirm the team's preference for SYF, but the risk/reward at AmEx (AXP -1.4%) is improving. AmEx, CapOne (COF -13%), and Discover (DFS -2.7%) results show the boosted competition they face form the banks, which is slowing growth, and lifting marketing and rewards costs.
- Source: Barron's
- Previously: Capital One tumbles after earnings miss and trio of downgrades (July 24)
Mon, Jul. 20, 3:58 PM
- "We're very comfortable with the business [we've] got and the size of the business,” says Morgan Stanley (MS -0.4%) CEO James Gorman, speaking on the Q2 earnings call. "We had a desire to get to scale, and we are well and truly at scale.”
- Wealth Management pre-tax income of $885M in Q2 was up 13.8% Y/Y, with revenue of $3.875B up 4.5%. Compensation expense stayed flat Y/Y, while non-comp expense rose 5%, allowing a profit margin inside the bank's 22-25% targeted range.
- Like many others in the industry, Morgan is focused on growing fee-based accounts and loans, as opposed to traditional commission business. Unlike, for instance, Merrill Lynch, Morgan isn't trying to do so by boosting its adviser head count. As of the end of Q2, Morgan had 15,771 advisers, off 3% Y/Y.
- Previously: Morgan Stanley up 3.8% after earnings beat (July 20)
- Previously: Morgan Stanley beats by $0.05, beats on revenue (July 20)
Mon, Jul. 20, 2:55 PM
- JPMorgan (JPM +0.4%) faces the largest capital "surcharge" or 4.5% of its risk-weighted assets, with the other seven lenders falling in the 1-3.5% range.
- Citigroup's (NYSE:C) surcharge is 3.5%, BofA (NYSE:BAC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) 3%, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) 2%, State Street (NYSE:STT) 1.5%, and Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK) 1%. Taken together, the group's capital cushion will more than $200B larger than if the surcharge was not implemented.
- The surcharges will begin to be implemented on January 1, and fully phased in by January 2019. JPMorgan has taken steps to boost its capital levels, and Fed officials indicate the bank is about $12.5B shy of the full surcharge, reports the WSJ.
- The other lenders currently have the necessary capital.
- This new requirement comes on top of the existing base 7% common-equity capital standard necessary for most banks.
- Federal Reserve press release
Mon, Jul. 20, 7:16 AM
- Q2 net income (excl. DVA) of $1.7B or $0.79 per share vs. $1.2B and $0.58 one year ago. ROE (excl. DVA) of 9.1%.
- Institutional Securities pre-tax income of $1.44B on revenue of $4.99B vs. $873M and $4.161B a year ago. Advisory revenue of $423M, equity underwriting revenue of $489M and fixed income underwriting revenue of $528M all roughly flat Y/Y. Equity sales and trading revenue of $2.3B vs. $1.8B a year ago. FICC revenue of $1.3B up from $1B - this as most other banks saw Y/Y decline.
- Wealth Management pre-tax income of $885M on revenue of $3.875B vs. $763M and $3.702B a year ago. Asset management fee revenue of $2.2B vs. $2.1B. Transactional revenue of $8872M vs. $991M. Net interest income of $737M vs. $577M. Total client assets of $2T. Client assets in fee-based accounts of $813B up 7% Y/Y. Average annualized revenue per representative of $978K up 8% Y/Y.
- Investment Management pre-tax income of $220M on revenue of $751M vs. $209M and $705M a year ago.
- CET 1 ratio of 12.5%. Tangible book value per share of $29.54.
- Conference call at 8:30 ET
- Previously: Morgan Stanley beats by $0.05, beats on revenue (July 20)
- MS +3.8% premarket
Mon, Jul. 20, 7:02 AM
Sun, Jul. 19, 5:30 PM
Fri, Jul. 10, 7:54 AM
- Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) agrees to buy Morgan Stanley's (NYSE:MS) European gas and power trading portfolio for an undisclosed sum.
- "Comprising predominantly physical and financial gas and power trades, the deal further expands Shell's activities in core energy markets across Europe," the company says.
- Morgan Stanley’s exit from trading power and gas in Europe follows similar moves by Deutsche Bank, Bank of America and Barclays in the past two years.
Mon, Jul. 6, 4:41 PM
- Last year, the Fed and FDIC found most of wind-down plans submitted by twelve of the largest U.S. banks (or U.S. units of overseas banks) had numerous deficiencies, and sent the lenders back to the drawing board.
- The two government agencies today posted public sections of the latest versions of the living wills, and said they will begin reviewing. Feedback is expected before year-end.
- The lucky 12: BAC, BK, C, GS, JPM, MS, STT, UBS, WFC, BCS, CS, DB.
Mon, Jun. 29, 8:53 AM
- Since the financial crisis, Morgan Stanley's (NYSE:MS) plan has been to de-emphasize its trading operations in favor of more stable, less risky businesses like wealth management. It's a move which has won the applause of investors and analysts, and Morgan is up 62% over the past two years vs. Goldman Sachs' - still a believer in fixed-income - 41% advance.
- However, with profitability targets still to be hit, U.S. rates on the rise, and a recent credit-rating boost from Moody's, Morgan CEO James Gorman and team see an opportunity for the bank to take a larger slice of Wall Street's roughly $100B in annual fixed-income trading revenue.
- In recent weeks Morgan has reportedly been soliciting more fixed-income business and pitching more trading ideas to its clients. Of import for those worried about risk: Management believes it can gain more business - perhaps several billion above the $3.8B in revenue in 2014 - without enlarging the balance sheet. By focusing on large money managers, Morgan hopes for a speedy pace of paper coming and going from the bank, thus keeping inventories trimmed.
- Source: WSJ
Wed, Jun. 10, 10:01 AM
- More than six years after the bottom, only four of the globe's biggest banks sport stock prices trading at a premium to book value. Leading the way is UBS at about 1.4x book. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) also trade for north of book.
- Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) - whose ROE of 2% is about one-tenth of what it was pre-crisis - brings up the rear at just about 0.5% of book. Barclays (NYSE:BCS) sells for roughly 0.7x book, and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) only slightly more than that.
- Checking further on ROE, Goldman leads the way at about 12%. Citigroup (NYSE:C) is less than 5%, but stands out as being the only bank with a higher ROE today than before the crisis.
- Looking at total return since the crisis, Goldman again leads the way at about 170%, with Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan a close second/third. Citigroup is the only major bank with a negative total return over that time frame.
- Source: Bloomberg
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