Dec. 17, 2014, 7:36 AM
- Jefferies yesterday posted a 73% plunge in fixed-income trading revenue for the quarter ended Nov. 30, and a 45% fall in equity-trading revenue. “You’re going to see weaker trading results because of what I’d call bad volatility,” says Charles Peabody, as firms cut back on stock and bond offerings.
- That Q4 trading revenue is going to be a weak one for the likes of JPM, C, BAC, GS, and MS shouldn't be a major surprise as Ciit's Mike Corbat, BofA's Brian Moynihan, and JPM's Marianne Lake said as much when presenting at a financial services conference earlier this month. But the weakness they described is nowhere near what was reported at Jefferies.
- Alongside the weak trading results, Jefferies is also looking to get rid of Bache - its commodities-trading business. "The fact that they are throwing in the towel on this business just a few years in would suggest that maybe that opportunity is not nearly as robust as they thought it would be,” says UBS's Brennan Hawken.
- Previously: Jefferies posts loss, mulling sale of Bache unit (Dec. 16, 2014)
Dec. 9, 2014, 11:38 AM
- Even as energy markets are buffeted by unusual volatility, some of Wall Street's biggest banks are ready to write billion-dollar checks to finance Cheniere Energy's (LNG +0.4%) $15.5B Corpus Christi natural gas project on the Gulf coast, CNBC reports.
- The commitments could put banks including JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) on the hook if the market for liquefied natural gas goes south, according to the report.
- The gas terminal, now under development and expected to produce as much as 13.5M tons of liquefied natural gas starting in 2018, is now seeking $11.5B in a seven-year bank credit facility that would depend in part on the issuance of new bonds next year and the year after to repay its debt; private lenders reportedly have provided LNG with an initial $2.5B in funding to construct the terminal.
Dec. 9, 2014, 8:52 AM
- A check of the other major banks premarket amid a global selloff of some note and BofA's Brian Moynihan's warning about sluggish Q4 trading revenue finds JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) -1.5%, Citigroup (NYSE:C) -1.5%, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) -1.2%, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) -1.7%, and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) -1.5%.
- XLF -1.1%
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, IAI, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, FINU, KCE, RWW, RYF, KBWC, FINZ
Dec. 2, 2014, 3:42 PM
- "Our concern is that the market has become complacent on the setting of the SIFI surcharge for the mega banks, which means there may be surprise at just how onerous the surcharge could be for JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)," writes Guggenheim's Jaret Seiberg.
- The Fed is expected to announce the capital surcharge on December 9.
- Previously: U.S. banks to be hit with tougher capital rule
Dec. 1, 2014, 11:40 AM
- A positive macro outlook for the U.S. (especially compared to the rest of the globe) should boost credit demand, says UBS - upgrading U.S. financials (NYSEARCA:XLF) to Overweight - while the start of a new rate-hike cycle next year bodes well for interest margins.
- UBS's three favored U.S. banks are Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), but TD Bank (NYSE:TD) also makes the buy list thanks to its large American presence.
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, RKH, QABA, FINU, KRU, RWW, KBWR, RYF, FINZ, KRS
Nov. 5, 2014, 3:06 AM
- Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) will receive a one-time lift of $1.3B due to a change in the structure of its Morgan Stanley Smith Barney operation.
- On Oct. 31, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney was converted from a partnership to a corporation. That change allowed the bank to release $1.3B it had previously set aside for taxes.
- The restructuring is not expected to change Morgan Stanley’s tax rate going forward, but it will help the bank’s profitability in Q4.
Oct. 23, 2014, 4:49 PM
- Not having had the pleasure of being subject to the stress test and CCAR previously, Deutsche Bank's (NYSE:DB) U.S. unit will be a participant next year
- As in prior years, those BHCs with large trading operations - BAC, C, GS, JPM, MS, WFC - will be required to factor in a global market shock as part of their scenarios.
- Those six, plus STT and BK - thanks to their custodial operations - will be required to incorporate a counterparty default scenario.
- Among the items in the severely adverse scenario is the unemployment rate jumping to 10%, a 60% dive in the stock market, and oil jumping to $110 per barrel (how about oil falling to $10 per barrel?).
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAT, IAI, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, RKH, QABA, FINU, KCE, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, KBWC, FINZ, KRS
Oct. 21, 2014, 11:44 AM
- Flying in the face of a regulatory environment hostile to such moves, Morgan Stanley (MS +1.8%) began a business - once codenamed "Project Venezuela" and now known as Wentworth Gas Marketing - to export compressed natural gas to Caribbean and Latin American countries.
- Now, says the FT, Morgan is mulling a sale of the operation and Simon Greenshields - the bank's co-head of commodities - has been in contact with possible buyers.
- In addition to the now-normal regulatory and political hostility to banks doing anything other than banking, there's worry about the risk of shipping compressed natural gas., something the Fed has made clear to Morgan.
Oct. 17, 2014, 3:03 PM
- "We view this as a great quarter, which demonstrates good progress on both production and efficiency. We continue to like Morgan Stanley (MS +1.8%) and its peers, and believe the recent pullback represents an attractive buying opportunity. We expect a good Q4 follow-through, and believe CCAR capital returns will be increased in the next couple of cycles as excess capital builds," says MKM's David Trone.
- "The beat was entirely driven by the top-line which came in $0.15 higher due to better than expected investment banking, FICC, and equities," says Citi's Keith Horowitz and Chris Larmoyeux. The beat despite the high bar for capital markets names, he says, bodes well for the stock, particularly given the recent sizable selloff.
- Previously: Morgan Stanley higher after earnings beat
Oct. 17, 2014, 7:30 AM
- Q3 income from continuing operations (excluding DVA) of $1.6B of $0.77 per share vs. $1B and $0.50 one year ago. This year's Q boosted by net discrete tax benefit of $237M or $0.12 per share.
- Institutional Securities pre-tax income from continuing operations of $1.2B vs. $396M a year ago. Advisory revenue of $392M vs. $275M thanks to boosted M&A activity. Equity underwriting revenue of $464M vs. $236M thanks to boosted IPO activity. FICC net revenue of $997M vs. $835M (about inline with what a few other banks posted). Compensation expense of $1.8B vs. $1.6B.
- Wealth Management pre-tax income of $836M vs. $668M a year ago, on net revenue of $3.8B vs. $3.5B. Asset management fees of $2.2B vs. $1.9B. Net interest income of $601M vs. $493M thanks to higher deposits and loan balances. Compensation expense of $2.2B vs. $2B. Wealth managers of 16,162 fell from 16,517, with average annualized revenue per advisor of $932K up 10%.
- Investment Management pre-tax income of $188M vs. $300M a year ago.
- Tangible book value per share of $29.25. Roughly $195M of stock repurchased during Q, or 5.9M shares.
- MS +2.8% premarket
- Previously: Morgan Stanley beats by $0.23, beats on revenue
Oct. 17, 2014, 7:16 AM
Oct. 16, 2014, 5:30 PM
Oct. 14, 2014, 3:31 PM
- Global growth, foreign-exchange, oil, and small caps are the subject of every client inquiry, says David Kostin. His team's recommendation: Buy "American exceptionalism."
- In Kostin's view, U.S. economy and corporate fundamentals are still strong, with economic growth expected by Goldman economists to be 3.2% next year, the fastest expansion since 2005. Europe is expected to grow just 1%.
- What his team likes are those stocks of companies which have a high proportion of domestic sales, plus sectors like Consumer Staples (XLP -0.1%) and Discretionary (XLY +0.7%) which stand to benefit from lower oil prices (plunging again today).
- As for small caps (IWM +0.9%), Kostin is wary, noting downward earnings revisions have boosted small cap P/E ratios even as prices have declined.
- The list of S&P 500 names capturing two or more of Kostin's themes: GT, GM, PCLN, AMZN, CMCSA, LOW, DG, TSN, ADM, CVS, AVP, WAG, PXD, HAL, JPM, BAC, SCHW, PNC, MS, C, GNW, LNC, MET, THC, AET, UNH, ESRX, HUM, WLP, BIIB, GILD, DAL, CMI, FLR, CRM, JBL, MA, FB, MU, FSLR, VMC, MON, T.
Oct. 14, 2014, 11:10 AM
- JPMorgan scored a 2.1% Y/Y increase in FICC revenue in Q3, also up 0.9% from the previous quarter. This comes following sizable trading revenue declines in previous quarters, and further slippage had been expected this quarter.
- Also reporting today, Citigroup showed a 6.7% rise in trading revenue, topping its own guidance.
- The results, says Credit Suisse's Christian Bolu, bode well for Goldman Sachs (GS +0.7%) and Morgan Stanley (MS +0.8%). Helping was the return of at least a little volatility in September (there's been plenty more in Q4's first month), not to mention an easy comparison with last year's poor levels.
- CS's Bolu previously expected Goldman to show a 3% Q3 FICC revenue drop and Morgan a 16% decline.
- Previously: JPMorgan: Interest income and FICC gain
- Previously: Citigroup +2.3% after earnings beat
Oct. 10, 2014, 4:58 PM
- Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) says its agreement to sell oil trading and storage businesses to Rosneft (OTC:RNFTF) may not close in time to beat a year-end deadline, as tensions between the U.S. and Russian governments leave the deal in limbo.
- MS, which reached an agreement with Rosneft in December, is running out of time to win approval from the CFIUS committee that weighs national security risks, before its agreement expires at year’s end.
- MS probably would consider other buyers if the agreement with Rosneft unravels.
Oct. 10, 2014, 2:37 PM
- "Steadily improving economic and capital markets backdrop will drive investment banking and loan growth higher, while trading is likely to rebound as the extended period of low volume and volatility is starting to shift back toward more normal conditions in September," say MKM's David Trone and Pankaj Chitrakar, expecting to see earnings for five bulge-bracket banks higher by 11% in Q3.
- The team remains bullish on all five, but sees just four - Citigroup (C -0.9%), Bank of America (BAC +0.5%), Goldman Sachs (GS +0.5%), and Morgan Stanley (MS +0.4%) - beating estimates. JPMorgan (JPM +0.3%) should just meet the $1.38 EPS consensus, they say, with strength in investment banking offset by declining mortgage banking.
MS vs. ETF Alternatives
Morgan Stanley through its subsidiaries and affiliates, provides financial products and services to a diversified group of clients and customers, including corporations, governments, financial institutions and individuals.
Other News & PR