Wed, Feb. 18, 12:15 PM
- Down AH yesterday due to the light sales guidance provided with its mixed Q4 results, Rackspace (RAX +1.4%) is now back above $50. Helping its cause: Pac Crest has upgraded to Outperform, and at least four firms have hiked their targets.
- Pac Crest cites enterprise and OpenStack momentum as reasons for upgrading: "In the second half of 2014, Rackspace won more large enterprise contracts worth at least $100,000 per month than it had in the prior five quarters combined ... management indicated that OpenStack now makes up more than 50% of its public cloud revenue, which implies OpenStack revenue is at least 15.6% of its total revenue."
- Cowen (target hiked to $75) now considers it likely Rackspace "will announce support for a mega cloud provider in 1H15," thereby boosting its long-term addressable market and lowering future capex needs (in exchange for sharing revenue). It adds sales guidance was in-line after adjusting for forex, and that EBITDA margin guidance was better than expected.
- Meanwhile, new CEO Taylor Rhodes argues the cloud infrastructure (IaaS) market's price war is calming down. "Amazon Web Services (NASDAQ:AMZN) in November, for the first time, didn’t make a price cut move ... AWS is feeling like they are the reference brand leader, that they are strong versus Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), so they don’t need to do it as much. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is cutting price, but who knows how much share they are actually taking."
- He also reiterates Rackspace's assertion that its OpenStack/hybrid cloud offerings are differentiated in the battle for enterprise accounts. "The mainstream market has two problems: They have legacy apps that won’t go [to multi-tenant public clouds] automatically ... the second problem they have is this skills set gap ... There is a need for software and tools development."
- Q4 results, guidance/details
Mon, Jan. 26, 6:42 PM
- Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) guides (.ppt) for its reporting units to collectively have FQ3 revenue of $20.6B-$21.4B, below a $23.8B total revenue consensus. Corporate/other revenue, which totaled $314M in FQ2, isn't included in the guidance. Forex is expected to hurt revenue growth by ~4%.
- Full-year operating expense guidance has been cut by $1B to $33.2B-$33.6B. Another $200M worth of restructuring charges are expected over the rest of FY15 (ends June '15), yielding total charges of $1.4B. FY15 tax rate guidance is at 22%-24%; the FQ2 tax rate was 25%.
- In its earnings slides (.ppt), Microsoft states its unearned revenue balance was $21.2B at the end of FQ2, +9% Y/Y but slightly below historical seasonality due to forex and the recognition of $300M worth of prior period deferrals. The contracted but not billed balance was above $24B.
- Office 365 consumer subs rose by 30% Q/Q to 9.2M, and first-party game revenue (boosted by the Mojang acquisition) rose 79%. Though Microsoft is in the midst of paring back its feature phone ops 39.7M non-Lumia phones were still sold (to go with 10.5M Lumias).
- $1.5B was spent on capex during the quarter. Capex is expected to rise Q/Q in FQ3 due to cloud investments. Excluding the Nokia deal, opex fell 8% Y/Y (+1% otherwise).
- MSFT -4.3% AH to $44.99. FQ2 results, details.
Mon, Jan. 26, 4:42 PM
- Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) Window OEM Pro and non-Pro revenue both fell 13% Y/Y in FQ2. The Pro slowdown is blamed on slowing business PC sales, academic discounts, and "mix returning to pre-Windows XP end of support levels." The non-Pro decline is due to unit growth coming from cheaper hardware that Microsoft is providing discounted license fees for. Commercial Windows volume license revenue rose 3%.
- Total Commercial revenue rose 5% Y/Y in FQ2 to $13.3B, helping drive the revenue beat. Devices & Consumer revenue (lifted by the Nokia deal) rose 8% to $12.9B. Commercial reporting segments accounted for over 2/3 of FQ2 gross profit of $16.3B.
- Segment performance: Commercial licensing revenue -2% Y/Y to $10.7B (hurt by the cloud shift). Commercial other +46% to $2.6B (boosted by cloud growth). Device/consumer licensing -25% to $4.2B (Windows and Android royalty declines). Computing/gaming hardware -11% to $4B (Xbox One launched a year ago). Phone hardware revenue was $2.3B, above guidance of $2B-$2.2B but down from FQ1's $2.6B (feature phone decline).
- Highlights: 1) Commercial cloud revenue (Office 365, Azure, Dynamics online) +114% Y/Y, and now on a $5.5B/year run rate 2) 10.5M Lumias and 6.6M Xboxes were sold. Surface revenue +24% to $1.1B. 3) Server products/services +9%, with double-digit SQL Server and System Center growth. 4) Search ad revenue +23%; Bing's U.S. share is at 19.7% (per comScore).
- With Nokia boosting spending levels in spite of last year's job cuts, R&D spend rose 6% to $2.9B, and sales/marketing 7% to $4.3B. G&A, however, fell 8% to $1.1B.
- $2.1B was spent on buybacks. Microsoft plans to complete its existing $40B buyback program (launched in Sep. 2013) by the end of 2016.
- Microsoft is at $45.59 in AH trading. Guidance will be provided on the CC.
- FQ2 results, PR
Mon, Jan. 26, 4:12 PM
Sun, Jan. 25, 5:35 PM
Oct. 23, 2014, 7:04 PM
- Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) guides on its FQ1 CC for FQ2 revenue of $25.4B-$26.5B, below a $27.9B consensus. But the company has shown quite the knack for guiding conservatively in recent quarters; FQ1 revenue ($23.2B) was soundly above the guidance provided in July ($21.2B-$22.3B).
- The company notes Devices & Consumer Licensing revenue (-9% Y/Y in FQ1) is being affected by the loss of revenue from Nokia; Nokia revenue totaled $650M in FQ2 last year.
- Total Windows OEM revenue fell 2% Y/Y in FQ1, as price cuts offset unit growth. "Windows Phone revenue" (driven by Android royalties) fell 46%, something attributed in part to a "higher mix of low-royalty devices;" Microsoft is in the midst of a royalty dispute with high-end Android leader Samsung.
- 9.3M Lumia phones were sold (up slightly Y/Y), aided by strong European and low-end demand. With feature phone sales falling quickly, phone hardware revenue is expected to drop to $2B-$2.2B in FQ2 from FQ1's better-than-expected $2.6B.
- Search ad revenue rose 23% Y/Y; Microsoft pegs Bing's U.S. search share at 19.4% (+140 bps Y/Y).
- Full-year opex guidance is unchanged at $34.2B-$34.6B. Due to the Nokia deal, opex was up 13% Y/Y in FQ1 to $7.9B. That growth rate should drop in the coming quarters, and possibly turn negative.
- MSFT +2.6% AH. FQ1 results, details, guidance (.ppt), CC slides (.ppt)
Oct. 23, 2014, 4:30 PM
- Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) Commercial revenue rose 10% Y/Y in FQ1 to $12.28B, nearly even with FQ4's 11% growth. Server products/services +13%; Office commercial products +5%; commercial cloud (Azure, Office 365, Dynamics cloud apps) +128%.
- Windows Server, SQL Server, and System Center each grew by double digits, and Lync, SharePoint, and Exchange collectively saw double-digit growth. Windows volume licensing +10%.
- Devices & Consumer revenue (boosted by the Nokia deal) +47% to $10.96B. Phone hardware revenue totaled $2.6B, down from $3.9B a year ago but above guidance of $1.9B-$2.3B. 2.4M Xboxes were sold (+102% thanks to the Xbox One launch), and Office Home/Personal subs rose by ~1.4M Q/Q to 7M+. Surface revenue totaled $908M.
- One soft spot: Dollar-wise, a 9% drop in D&C Licensing revenue to $4.09B more than offset a 16% increase in D&C Other revenue (inc. Web and cloud services) to $1.81B. OEM non-Pro Windows revenue fell 1%, though Windows consumer unit growth was positive.
- Commercial Licensing made up 61% of Microsoft's gross profit, and Commercial Other (inc. cloud services) 5%. D&C Licensing accounted for 26%, and D&C Other just 2%.
- $2.9B was spent on buybacks. The unearned revenue balance rose 11% Y/Y to $22.5B.
- MSFT +2.8% AH. FQ1 results, PR.
Oct. 23, 2014, 4:05 PM
Oct. 22, 2014, 5:35 PM
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Jul. 22, 2014, 6:58 PM
- Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) guides on its FQ4 CC for FQ1 revenue of $21.2B-$22.3B, below a $23.1B consensus. But the company has shown a habit of guiding conservatively in recent quarters.
- Also likely playing a role: The Nokia phone unit (about to see massive job cuts) is expected to see FQ1 revenue of $1.9B-$2.3B; that's down from a year-ago level of $3.9B. 5.8M Lumia phones were sold in FQ4 during the 2 months following the closing of the Nokia deal, with low-end phones making up "a majority" of the volume; 7.4M Lumias were sold over the unit's full June quarter last year.
- Microsoft's unearned revenue balance rose 13% Y/Y to $25.2B. Its contracted not billed balance totaled $24B (up $3B Y/Y), and total bookings rose 29% (20% exc. Nokia).
- Other details: 1) Office commercial revenue (inc. Office 365) grew 4%. 2) Surface revenue totaled $409M, and 1.1M Xboxes were sold. 3) The benefit to Windows business revenue that came from the end of XP support "moderated" towards the end of FQ4. 4) $1.3B was spent on capex in FQ4, and $5.5B overall in FY14. 5) "Commercial licensing" accounted for 65% of FQ4 gross profit.
- MSFT +1.3% AH. Earnings slides (.ppt), guidance (.ppt).
- Prior Microsoft earnings coverage
Jul. 22, 2014, 4:18 PM
- Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) Commercial revenue rose 11% Y/Y in FQ4 to $13.48B, an improvement from FQ3's 7% growth. Commercial cloud revenue +147% ($4.4B/year run rate), Windows volume licensing +11%, enterprise services +11%, SQL Server and System each up double-digits.
- Thanks to two months of Nokia phone revenue, devices & consumer revenue rose 42% to $10B. Windows OEM revenue +3%, with Pro revenue rising 9% and non-Pro revenue falling 9%.
- Office consumer revenue +21%, with the Office 365 home/personal sub base growing by over 1M to 5.6M+. Bing search ad revenue rose 40%, but display ad sales fell 11%.
- The Nokia unit contributed $1.99B in revenue, but only $54M in gross profit. It took an $0.08 toll on EPS. On the other hand, the end of Microsoft's commercial agreement with Nokia provided a $382M one-time op. profit boost.
- MSFT +0.2% AH. CC at 5:30PM, guidance will be provided.
- FQ4 results, PR
Jul. 22, 2014, 4:08 PM| 2 Comments
Jul. 21, 2014, 5:35 PM
Jun. 12, 2014, 4:26 PM
- Citing stronger-than-expected business PC demand, Intel (INTC) now expects Q2 revenue of $13.4B-$14B, better than prior guidance of $12.5B-$13.5B and a $13B consensus.
- Moreover, the chip giant now expects "some revenue growth" for the whole of 2014, after previously guiding for flat sales; the consensus is for 0.7% growth.
- Full-year R&D/MG&A spending guidance has been upped by $300M to $19B-$19.4B.
- The guidance hike follows several quarters of narrowing PC shipment declines, thanks in large part to healthy corporate demand. Windows 7 system purchases tied to Microsoft's decision to end Windows XP support have played a key role.
- Other PC industry names are up in sympathy: MSFT +1% AH. AMD +1.4%. HPQ +0.8%. NVDA +0.7%.
Apr. 24, 2014, 6:09 PM
- Microsoft (MSFT) guides on its CC for FQ4 revenue of $20.4B-$21B, slightly below a $21.04B consensus. The company's FQ3 guidance proved conservative, and investors are assuming as much for its FQ4 outlook.
- The revenue outlook for individual reporting groups: devices & consumer licensing $4.1B-$4.3B, D&C hardware $1.3B-$1.5B, D&C other $1.9B, commercial licensing $11B-$11.2B, commercial other $2.1B.
- Xbox channel inventory drawdown is expected to impact D&C hardware, and a lower impact from Win. 7 upgrades caused by the end of XP support will affect D&C licensing. Commercial other is expected to see ~10% Q/Q growth on the back of cloud services (Office 365, Azure) demand.
- Opex is expected to grow 4% Y/Y to $8.4B-$8.6B after adjusting for an EU fine. Capex is expected to total $1.5B (cloud investments), and unearned revenue to grow in line with seasonality. A tax rate of 18%-20% is forecast.
- Microsoft's unearned revenue balance rose 14% Y/Y in FQ3 to $19.5B, topping guidance and exceeding FQ2's 12% clip. Bookings rose 6%, down from FQ2's 12%. The company's contracted but not billed balance closed above $22B (up over $1B Y/Y).
- MSFT +2.7% AH. FQ3 results, details, earnings slides (.ppt), guidance (.ppt), prepared remarks (.doc)
Apr. 24, 2014, 4:24 PM
- Microsoft's (MSFT) Commercial revenue grew 7% Y/Y in FQ3 to $12.7B, a little below FQ2's 10% clip. Devices & Consumer revenue grew 12% to $8.3B after growing 13% in FQ2.
- Commercial Licensing (50% of revenue, 65% of gross profit) sales +10% vs. +7%, with Windows volume licensing up 11% and and key server productivity offerings (Lync, SharePoint, Exchange) collectively growing double-digits.
- Commercial Other +31% vs. +28%; 100% and 150% respective increases for Office 365 and Azure fueled the growth. The division is now nearly 10% of revenue, but still makes up less than 4% of gross profit (lower cloud margins).
- D&C licensing rose 1% after falling 6% in FQ2, thanks in part to stabilizing PC sales; Windows OEM revenue rose 4%.
- D&C hardware +41% (thanks to Xbox One sales) ahead of the Nokia deal's closing; Surface revenue totaled just $500M. D&C Other +18%; Office 365 Home added almost 1M subs, raising its total base to 4.4M.
- Drops in sales/marketing and G&A spend led opex to fall 7% Y/Y to $7.49B. That boosted EPS, as did $1.8B in buybacks.
- Satya Nadella hosts his first CC at 5:30PM ET, guidance will be provided.
- MSFT +2% AH. FQ3 results, PR.
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Microsoft Corp is engaged in designing, manufacturing, selling devices, and online advertising to a global customer audience. Its products include operating systems for computing devices, servers, phones, and other intelligent devices.
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