M&T Bank Corp. (MTB)
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- Well-Capitalized Regional Banks: The Bottom Is In [view article]
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- Dividend Aristocrats Survived September
- Buffett's Berkshire: 14 Stocks That Have Gone Up
- Friday Options Update: MS, XLF, GFG, MTB, XLB, BMRN, IWM
- 20 Top High-Dividend Growth Stocks
- Bank Exposure to Freddie/Fannie Securities: Do Your Homework
- Ten Banks That Will Be Hurt by the Takeover of Fannie and Freddie
- Allied Irish Banks: With 9% Dividend, This Bank Could Thrive
- Dividend Aristocrats Handily Outperforming Main Indexes in 2008
- Finding Relative Value in Financial Services
- U.S. Savings Rate To Increase, Finally
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Financials Down 6.1% - Like the Days of the Tech Bust? [view article]
Once the financials on the rise , the short sellers pull it down sharply , we can see such on July 2 , 9 , and more obviously July 14 where the after hours trading for FNM / FRE went up 30% while the same went down immediately when the bell rang .I am talking about all bank stocks be they classified as strong or weak .
Obviously , the short sellers have been so well fed on the expense of the banks' equity by depleting value to sending a panic to the public , that they became much stronger than the defenders working on normalizing the financial pricing .
The " good news " would no longer help to recoup the price .
Everyone seems to know that they should follow the big guy in shorting once seeing any rise eminent .
The profit is taken in the expense of the whole economy .
Fannie / Freddie ( FNM / FRE ) have been running their business successfully for years .
They are well experience and up to today's date after their stock pricing and thereby equity , being depleted by short sellers down to almost worthless , they can still stand up to state in confidence that they can do a good job on what they have been accomplishing .
There is only harm done to the public by undermining the two .
They are the best to handle the now financial crisis .
The treasury ought to set up a trust funds for the taxpayers and buy their shares in the open market in against the short sellers .
The taxpayers would get themselves a terrific investment , FNM / FRE at about or under $ 10 , vow !
The taxpayers would make a big chunk of money when their pricing go back up to over $20 at just 2 weeks ago , in June .
The two would not be diluted since no new stocks would be issued .
The short sellers would lose some money and they are fat enough to afford it .
The two would gain back their equity so that the passing of the mortgage rescue plan can be facilitated .
Once the rescue plan is in place , the housing market would make a turn to gradual stabilization .
The rest of the financials would gain back confidence from investors .
Should the short sellers carry on to cut down any rise whatsoever .
The respective bank should throw in all they have or even borrow to buy against the short sellers .
The public knowing that a rise would not foresee a huge fall , would then buy as well on a rise trend .
The government should encourage banks to buy back their own stock at this time of crisis .
Once the banks got back their equity the vicious cycle would naturally be unspiralled .
Only a concerted effort by the defenders would beat a concerted strength from the short sellers .
Hey , bankers , don't miss this golden opportunity by investing in your own bank ; well , unless you are one of the short sellers .
Make some money for yourself and help USA to recoup financially .
Would you ?
Reply
Rafat
Well-Capitalized Regional Banks: The Bottom Is In [view article]
First, thank you to "ndallasj" for his careful correction. He is absolutely correct. I will change that line in my own blog. It is refreshing to see someone taking the time to make an objective correction.I also want to point out I published the article yesterday, and today, FHN and CNB are up around 20%. So I suppose I was correct in calling at least a short-term bottom. Reply
Well-Capitalized Regional Banks: The Bottom Is In [view article]
to recover exists, but I think it's too early to pull the trigger. I would waite until the 16Jul when quarterly report is released and focus on what they right in the small print as well as the numbers they report.Reply
Well-Capitalized Regional Banks: The Bottom Is In [view article]
The way you are evaluating CNB specifically makes very little sense to me. They are heavily vested in florida to include commercial loans that have been trailing residential loans on the fall. Also, read closely to how CNB made its calculations with changing at risk accounts to 90 days rather than 60 days in order to hide its close to 500 million in loans that are 75 days past due. They currently have ,if i remember correctly, around 250million in their default account which will not cover the actual loss of loans if they go over 90 days. Hence, the evaluation decreases even more. I would agree that the potential form CNB ReplySome Bargain Stocks to Consider Buying [view article]
A rational approach to investing, as opposed to the general casino/roulette wheel theory of market playing that has become the American Capitalist paradigm. ReplyFinancials Down 6.1% - Like the Days of the Tech Bust? [view article]
Nightmares revisited. Recall many other days when some tech stocks fell 30% plus. I once held a big chunk of a stock that tanked 38% when it warned of part shortage in 2000, when tech bubble began to bust. ReplyWell-Capitalized Regional Banks: The Bottom Is In [view article]
The total cash vs total debt calculation is a flawed way to look at banks. It will not lead you to differentiating between good and bad. Bank analysis is a much more detailed process whereby the loan portfolio is dissected, piece by piece, loss contents estimated in relation to reserves on the balance sheet, then worst case unaccrued losses attributed to book value, and ultimately to earning power.I noticed there was a lot of insider buying in CNB, at higher prices. And I did not think that had any signaling power either, b/c if the management is dumb enough to go overboard on real estate lending w/out proper credit standards, they are sure not smart enough to figure out when to buy the stock.
All that said, we are in fact getting close to or at some compelling valuation levels in banks, based on tangible book values. The key is where are we in the credit loss cycle. I believe we are in the 3rd or 4th inning, but by the end of this year could be nearing the 7th inning "stretch". So it is a good time to be doing lots of homework. Reply
Well-Capitalized Regional Banks: The Bottom Is In [view article]
cash is a liquidity measurement. The real issue is valuation of their assets, and in particular, their real estate loans secured by deveopment projects in FL. The bottom in those markets is not in sight yet, so the collateral value and the debtors' solvency are both declining. ReplyWell-Capitalized Regional Banks: The Bottom Is In [view article]
I am calling for capitulation in the banking industry by the end of the week. The Fed has shot its wad. The analysts and press continue to run all banks through an endless gauntlet of bad news and poor ratings. The XLF will hit $15, then when it retraces to $18 we can call a bottom. ReplyWell-Capitalized Regional Banks: The Bottom Is In [view article]
So much money has been printed with so much more to come that we are in a hyper-inflation period. Wages will not go up much as jobs will continully be lost and loan losses increase. The USA has had its golden years unless we find cheap energy. If not, the terrorist have won, the country is bankrupt, and most don't know it or care to believe it. The dollar will lose another 40%+ within 3 years and silver will become real money again in place of fiats over much of the present civilized old world. Congress,the Fed, and dumified citizens are to blame for short term thinking the have destroyed our founders dream. With out cheap energy we can't work out of this hole. Buy PUTS, and take delivery of silver bars, eagles, maple leafs, & a gun. Read the silverstockreport.com on FAQs this week and save your butt with action. Watching the slide to disaster wont be as painful. The easy life is ending. Replynalyst
Well-Capitalized Regional Banks: The Bottom Is In [view article]
As an old guy who followed bank stocks for more years than I can almost remember, I agree with you. During the prior two real estate "crisises" and in 1982 when South American default to zero was goint to destroy the US money center banks, the worthless loan talk was almost as strong. Today you have 24 / t media to add to the worry. I know from experience that it take a while to workout real estate loans, so I blame the mark to daily market mentality for today's panic. Banks have legal claim to assets that they lend upon that have realizable value during an orderly liquidation, accounts and investors need to relize this in their reporting as such property and loans become a held "investment" by the bank. ReplyWell-Capitalized Regional Banks: The Bottom Is In [view article]
Foreclosures aren't anywhere close to being done yet, commercial re coming to the party, heating oil prices in the North this winter will break the averge person, why buy bottoms, buy good co's on the way up- ReplyWell-Capitalized Regional Banks: The Bottom Is In [view article]
One of us is missing something--banks' loans are shown as assets on the balance sheet. Hence, your statement that "The problem lies in evaluating whether a bank's debt as shown on its balance sheet is likely to be repaid by its debtors" doesn't make sense. ReplyWell-Capitalized Regional Banks: The Bottom Is In [view article]
I liked your article. Well articulated. My concern would be this: many have suggested a contrarian position based on media articles like the one you mentioned before and yet the stocks continue to head south. Sometimes I wonder if its lost its effectiveness as a contrarian indicator because so many are aware of it. :-) Replyider
Well-Capitalized Regional Banks: The Bottom Is In [view article]
Interesting thoughts, but not based on facts. Dig into the financials of ALL the banks named above and you will see that, at best, they are still due for a long drop...Maybe, just maybe, 50% of these may just survive... But I doubt it.
Sorry... Reply