Wed, Apr. 29, 8:08 AM
- In the wake of lame earnings and a dividend cut at American Capital Agency (NASDAQ:AGNC), not to mention management's cautious stance going forward, UBS downgrades the stock to Sell from Neutral. Gary Kain's other mREIT vehicle, American Capital Mortgage (NASDAQ:MTGE), is cut to Neutral from Buy.
- Also downgraded is AGNC's partner at the top of the mREIT food chain - Annaly Capital (NYSE:NLY) to Sell from Neutral.
- AGNC -1% premarket after yesterday's 2.2% decline. MTGE -1.3%, NLY -0.8%.
- Previously: American Capital earnings call: Hunkering down (April 28)
- Previously: American Capital Agency income and book value slip in Q1 (April 27)
- Previously: American Capital Agency declares $0.20 dividend (April 27)
Fri, Mar. 20, 9:47 AM
- The company last night cut its quarterly dividend to $0.50 per share vs. $0.65 previously. It's enough for Wunderlich to throw in the towel on its Buy call, and the firm downgrades to Hold with price target cut to $18.50 from $21.50.
- The cut isn't a total surprise to Jason Stewart at Compass Point who downgraded the stock six weeks ago on worry that margin pressure had boosted the chances of a reduction in the dividend.
- The current price of $18.12 is a 17.3% discount to Dec. 31 book value.
- MTGE -1.7%
Mon, Feb. 9, 7:36 AM
- "Core EPS beat our expectations, but the longer term outlook for growth in taxable income was muted in the current rate environment," says Compass Point's Jason Stewart, downgrading to Neutral from Buy. "We believe margin pressure and a lower contribution of dollar roll income pose a risk to core earnings power and increase the potential for a dividend cut in 2015."
- Stewart does say that investments in credit risk transfer securities and MSRs should ultimately result in a premium valuation vs. securities-only peers (MTGE currently trades for 85% of book value), but the time-period for these initiatives to scale up has lengthened from earlier expectations.
- MTGE -1.5% premarket
Tue, Feb. 3, 3:52 PM
- Unable to put any sort of positive move together even as interest rates tumbled this year, mREITs (REM +0.9%) are uniformly higher this session as the 10-year yield jumps 11 basis points to 1.78%.
- American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.3%) reported better-than-hoped Q4 results last night, but has altered its mix of portfolio holdings and hedges to brace for what it expects will be a wave of prepayments. If rates keep this up, those prepayments may not materialize.
- Annaly (NLY +1.1%), Chimera (CIM +1.5%), CYS Investments (CYS +1.3%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +1.8%), Hatteras (HTS +1.1%), MFA Financial (MFA +1.3%), Western Asset (WMC +1.8%), Dynex (DX +1.1%), Ellington Financial (EFC +1.2%).
Dec. 9, 2014, 12:57 PM
- Unable to catch a bid for a few sessions, mortgage REITs (REM +1%) have turned higher in afternoon action, led by Annaly (NLY +0.7%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.5%).
- Helping are jitters in the stock market (though U.S. averages are well off the lows), and a 10-year Treasury yield that's retreated all the way to 2.21% after hitting the mid-2.30s on the back of Friday's strong jobs number.
- Armour (ARR +1.1%), Two Harbors (TWO +0.9%), CYS Investments (CYS +1.4%), Invesco (IVR +1.8%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +1%), Hatteras Financial (HTS +2%), Capstead (CMO +2%).
- Other ETFs: MORT, MORL
- Also showing some green are the recently beaten-up BDCs, including Prospect Capital (PSEC +0.2%), Fifth Street Finance (FSC +0.2%), Ares Capital (ARCC +0.5%), FS Investment (FSIC), Triangle Capital (TCAP +1.7%).
- ETFs: BDCL, BDCS, BIZD
- Previously: Money flows back into fixed income (Dec. 9, 2014)
Oct. 13, 2014, 4:19 PM
- Both equity and mortgage REITs saw plenty of buying as nearly all of the rest of the market was lit up bright red, and Treasury ETFs signaled a sharp drop in yields when government bonds reopen for trade tomorrow (closed this session for Columbus Day).
- A sampling of equity names: Senior Housing Properties (SNH +1.2%), Medical Properties Trust (MPW +1.4%), Gramercy Property Trust (GPT +1.7%), Equity Residential (EQR +0.7%), Inland Real Estate (IRC +0.9%), Sovran Self Storage (SSS +1.1%), Highwoods Properties Trust (HIW +1%).
- One equity REIT sector in the red along with the rest of the market is lodging amid worsening Ebola fears: Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT -2.9%), Sunshine Hotel Investors (SHO -1.4%), LaSalle Hotel Properties (LHO -1.5%), Summit Hotel Properties (INN -1.5%).
- Mortgage REITs: American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.4%), CYS Investments (CYS +2.2%), Invesco (IVR +1.1%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +1.5%), Western Asset (WMC +1.1%).
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, REM, MORL, MORT, DRN, URE, REZ, SRS, RWR, SCHH, ICF, ROOF, DRV, KBWY, RTL, REK, FRI, FTY, PSR, IFNA, FNIO, WREI
Sep. 19, 2014, 3:32 PM
- Leading the mREIT sector (REM +0.2%) higher this session are American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.9%) and American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +1%) after the two maintained their $0.65 per share quarterly payout last night. Neither move should have been a surprise as both comfortably out-earned their dividend last quarter.
- Also maintaining its payout ($0.30 per shares) after the bell yesterday was Annaly Capital (NLY +0.8%).
- The sector is also getting a break from rising rates with the 10-year Treasury yield lower by four basis points to 2.58%
- ETFs: MORT, MORL
Jul. 3, 2014, 9:56 AM
- A few days ago, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at about 2.50%, but it's been on the rise all week and shot up to near 2.7% this morning following the strong jobs print and drop in unemployment to 6.1%. Checking the short end of the curve, Eurodollar futures are selling off as well, and now have baked in more than one rate hike between now and one year from now, and 75 basis points of hikes by the end of 2015.
- Previously: Treasury yields jump, gold slumps after strong jobs print
- Off 1.1% today, Annaly Capital (NLY) is down nearly 5% since this time last week, with a similar move having taken place in American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.2%).
- Chimera (CIM -1.4%), CYS Investments (CYS -1%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR -1.8%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -1.6%), New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT -1.2%), AG Mortgage (MITT -1.8%), Ellington Residential (EARN -0.7%), Dynex (DX -0.8%), MFA Financial (MFA -0.9%).
- ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL
Jun. 26, 2014, 3:54 PM
- Enjoying the decline in interest rates even among some hawkish stomping of feet by St. Louis Fed boss Jim Bullard, the mortgage REIT sector (REM +0.9%) is broadly higher. Sector giants: Annaly Capital (NLY +0.6%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.1%).
- Others: Two Harbors (TWO +1.9%), Chimera (CIM +1.8%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +1%), Cherry Hill Mortgage (CHMI +1.4%), New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT +1.1%).
- Other ETFs: MORT, MORL
Jun. 17, 2014, 4:18 PM| Comment!
Apr. 10, 2014, 11:49 AM
- Lit up bright green as the market's momentum names again break down and lead the averages - and Treasury yields - lower are the mortgage REITs (REM +0.5%).
- The 10-year yield is off six basis points to 2.63% and Eurodollar futures in the last few sessions have rallied strongly, pricing out at least one rate hike between now and the end of 2016.
- CYS Investments (CYS +1.7%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR +1.3%), Hatteras Financial (HTS +1.3%), MFA Financial (MFA +1.4%), Two Harbors (TWO +0.8%), American Capital (AGNC +0.6%), (MTGE +0.5%).
- One day after making a number of additions to its management team - including a couple of hires from the New York Fed - Annaly (NLY +0.5%) is also posting gains.
- Related ETFs: MORT, MORL
Apr. 4, 2014, 3:15 PM
- What's working today? With the exception of Western Asset Mortgage which had a massive secondary offering, the mREIT sector is nearly universally higher as money rushes out of the previously perkier areas of the market.
- Not hurting is a seven basis point decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 2.73%.
- Up the most are the two largest and also investor favorites Annaly (NLY +1.4%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.3%). Others: CYS Investments (CYS +1%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +0.5%), MFA Financial (MFA +0.5%), Dynex (DX +0.9%), Armour (ARR +0.5%).
- Related ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL
Mar. 19, 2014, 3:13 PM
- A check of sectors following the FOMC statement and updated projections suggesting a quickened pace of rate hikes in the future finds the banks and life insurers notably moving higher. Both groups have struggled earning a spread amid ZIRP and are positively levered to higher rates.
- Lenders: Bank of America (BAC +1%), Citigroup (C +1%), JPMorgan (JPM), Regions (RF +1.7%), KeyCorp (KEY +0.9%), SunTrust (STI +0.7%).
- Life insurers: MetLife (MET +1%), Prudential (PRU +0.7%), Lincoln National (LNC +1%).
- Related ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, KIE, SEF, IYG, IAK, FXO, PFI, KBWB, FNCL, FINU, RWW, RYF, PSCF, KBWP, KBWI, FINZ, KBE, KRE
- Not necessarily positively levered to higher rates are the mortgage REITs (REM -1.6%): Annaly (NLY -1.8%), American Capital (AGNC -1.7%), (MTGE -1.9%), Armour (ARR -1.3%), Two Harbors (TWO -2%) CYS Investments (CYS -3.3%), Capstead (CMO -1.3%), MFA (MFA -1.8%).
- Related ETFs: MORT, MORL
Feb. 7, 2014, 9:58 AM
- Given this year's bond market trends, Q4's loss in book value has likely been restored, says analyst Merill Ross, upgrading to a Buy with $21.50 price target. He also notes the company's investment in mortgage servicing as a move likely to optimize future earnings (see management's discussion in yesterday's earnings call).
- The stock market, says Ross, is pricing American Capital (MTGE +1.7%) as if MBS prices are likely to repeat this year what they did in 2013 (go down). "It is difficult for anyone with a shred of fiduciary responsibility to invest in an asset class that, by and large, destroyed value in such an epic fashion. However, when we look at MTGE and others in its peer group (REM +0.4%), value creation was positive; yet, share price action was strongly negative."
- Related ETFs: MORT, MORL
- Trading at $19.47 at the moment, the stock is selling at a 9.3% discount to Dec. 31 book value of $21.47 (and book value is likely north of $22 by now).
Feb. 4, 2014, 11:51 AM
- Addressing an analyst cadre somewhat uncomfortable with American Capital's (AGNC +1.6%) new policy of purchasing the common stock of its agency mREIT competitors (Wells' Joel Houck: Do you know their hedging strategies? What happens when one blows up?), CIO Gary Kain says the discounts to asset value are so great as to mitigate much of the risk.
- Kain does acknowledge some risks though, and reminds that the purchase program is but a small slice of AGNC's overall portfolio ($400M of others' stock bought so far vs. nearly $600M of AGNC buybacks just in Q4).
- For now, there won't be any disclosure of which names American Capital is buying - a position also not sitting well with those on the call. Should the positions get large enough though, regulatory filings might be required.
- Kain also reminds that AGNC isn't just boosting risk with these purchases - instead it's selling MBS at 100 cents on the dollar to buy them back (via other mREITs) at somewhere in the area of 80 cents on the dollar.
- Most of the mREIT sector (REM +0.7%) is ahead again today - Armour (ARR +0.9%), CYS (CYS +2.8%), Hatteras (HTS +1.6%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +0.6%), PennyMac (PMT +1.2%) - but Annaly (NLY -0.6%) lags, perhaps as investors feel it was far more conservatively positioned going into 2014 than AGNC was.
- Earnings call is still ongoing
- Previous coverage
Feb. 3, 2014, 10:42 AM
- The poor ISM number and resultant drop in interest rates provides more manna to the rebounding mREITs (REM), with Annaly (NLY +1.7%), Western Asset (WMC +1.9%), CYS (CYS +0.9%), Capstead (CMO +1%), and Ellington (EFC +0.8%), (EARN +0.2%) among those leading the sector this morning.
- Capstead was the first of the mREITs to report Q4 results, but American Capital (AGNC +0.9%), (MTGE -0.1%) reports on Wednesday, and investors will want to see if Gary Kain and team - so worried about higher rates - hedged away any gains to be made from their fast decline thus far this year.
- Related ETFs: MORT, MORL
MTGE vs. ETF Alternatives
American Capital Mortgage Investment Corp operates as a REIT. It invests in, finance and manage a leveraged portfolio of mortgage-related investment, non-agency mortgage investments and other mortgage-related investments.
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