Today, 10:56 AM
- Murphy Oil (MUR +2.2%) is moving strongly off yesterday's 52-week lows on news that CEO Roger Jenkins bought 15K shares on Aug. 3 at $32.36/share, a purchase totaling ~$485K that brings his direct holdings in MUR to more than 95K shares.
- MUR delivered Q2 results last week that showed a net operating loss of $89M, or $0.51/share, vs. a profit of $142.7M, or $0.79/share, in the same period a year ago.
Fri, Jul. 31, 4:24 PM
- Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR) fell consistently into the close to finish -6.2% today as Oppenheimer downgraded the stock to Perform, from Outperform.
- The firm also pulled its $55 price target, "as we expect the deficit spending to continue into 2017 and beyond at average crude oil prices below $80/b," writes analyst Fadel Gheit.
- Shares closed yesterday at $34.97 after rising 2.3% in the wake of earnings where it posted a net loss narrower than expected. UBS pulled its Sell rating on the results.
- "We expect MUR to face a cash flow deficit of $1.6B this year and $900M next year, which will be funded from $1.3B cash on hand and additional borrowing," said Oppenheimer's Gheit.
Thu, Jul. 30, 3:57 PM
- Murphy Oil (MUR +1.7%) no longer rates a Sell at UBS, which upgrades shares to Neutral with a $36 price target after announcing a Q2 loss of $0.48, better than the analyst consensus estimate of a $0.54 loss.
- MUR says Q2 production averaged 201.9K boe/day, down 4% Y/Y but ahead of its guidance of 197K boe/day, mostly due to new well performance in the Eagle Ford Shale and risked startup of the Medusa expansion project; MUR raises its full-year production guidance to 200K-208K boe/day.
- MUR says it will revamp its deepwater exploration strategy to focus on lower-risk drilling after hitting another dry hole in the Gulf of Mexico.
- Despite MUR's strong balance sheet, UBS does not believe the stock warrants a premium valuation to peers given its large free cash flow deficit, lack of long-term growth visibility, and below average debt-adjusted growth outlook.
- MUR says its FY 2015 capex outlook remains unchanged at $2.3B, which UBS expects to cause a free cash flow deficit of more than $1B at current strip prices.
Wed, Jul. 22, 2:37 PM
- A reduction in non-OPEC production eventually will provide an opportunity for U.S. producers to get back in the game, Credit Suisse analyst Mark Lear says as he upgrades the oil and gas E&P sector to Overweight and changes ratings for several individual stocks.
- Lear sees a handful of names with limited downside at WTI prices of ~$60/bbl and “decent” upside with prices in the $70’s, and expects a better year for natural gas in 2016 as dropoffs in production and higher demand could lead to higher winter prices.
- "We may be early,” but Credit Suisse assumes coverage at Outperform on some E&P stocks: EOG, EPE, PXD, DNR, APC, DVN.
- Upgraded to Outperform from Neutral: HES, CXO, CRZO, NBL
- Upgraded to Neutral from Underperform: MUR.
- Assumed coverage at Neutral: APA, DNR
- Assumed at Underperform: SD, SWN
- Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral: REXX, CRK
Tue, Jul. 14, 8:59 AM
- Vietnam's national oil company is set to work with Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) to strengthen cooperation in oil and gas projects in the country.
- MUR President/CEO Roger Jenkins signs an MOU with PetroVietnam to boost cooperation in petroleum projects, particularly the development of the Block B gas project in the Malay Tho Chu basin and some blocks in the Cuu Long basin offshore Vietnam.
- PetroVietnam and XOM are discussing plans to produce first gas from the Ca Voi Xanh gas field off central Vietnam by 2021.
- In June, PetroVietnam acquired full interest in Chevron's companies in the country.
Mon, Jul. 13, 11:42 AM
- Murphy Oil (MUR +0.5%) is downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight with a $48 price target, cut from $50, at Morgan Stanley, which cites a shorter drilling inventory life, challenged offshore strategy and higher cash burn than peers.
- Stanley believes MUR will lag the large-cap E&P group whether the oil price recovery follows a V- or a U-shaped trajectory, and expects its valuation discount to widen during initial stages of a recovery.
- The firm thinks MUR should lag as its short inventory life returns to focus; assuming normalized 2016 activity level, it says MUR would exit 2015 with just seven years of Eagle Ford drilling locations vs. a 20-year average inventory for stocks in its large-cap E&P coverage universe.
Tue, Jul. 7, 6:43 PM
- Barclays’ Paul Cheng predicts all 10 Americas-based oil majors - XOM, CVX, COP, HES, MUR, SU, CVE, IMO, OTCPK:HUSKF, PBR - will beat earnings forecasts, benefiting from strong downstream and chemical performances as well as better than expected production volumes and a lower operating cost environment.
- Cheng estimates the oil majors will exceed the current EPS consensus by a median of 30% while the refiners will beat by 9%.
- Cheng raises his full-year EPS forecast for CVX to $3.75 from $3.55 and for COP to $0.25 from $0.20, but lowers his forecast for XOM to $4 from $4.05.
Mon, Jul. 6, 12:21 PM
- Murphy Oil (MUR -0.6%) has shut in 33 of its heavy oil wells in northern Alberta after a regulatory sweep found the wells were not properly capturing gasses.
- In a statement released Friday, the provincial regulator said all sites will remain shut-in or partially shut-in until it approves MUR’s plan to correct the problem.
Thu, Jun. 25, 12:43 PM
- While UBS downgraded Chesapeake Energy (CHK -4.2%) and Murphy Oil (MUR -2.4%) today (I, II), the firm also upgrades Marathon Oil (MRO +1.4%) to Buy from Neutral with a $32 target price, finding MRO an attractive way to play its expectation for a long-term recovery in oil prices.
- UBS notes MRO's high oil exposure, above average debt-adjusted growth, leverage to low-cost resource in the Eagle Ford and SCOOP/STACK, strong balance sheet and inexpensive valuation vs. peers.
- The firm also says MRO is trading at a wider than normal discount to peers despite an above average cash flow per debt-adjusted share growth outlook.
Thu, Jun. 25, 11:25 AM
- Murphy Oil (MUR -2.4%) is downgraded to Sell from Neutral with a $41 price target, reduced from $45, at UBS, which believes MUR's sharp capex cut this year will lead to a declining production profile in 2015 and 2016.
- Concerns about MUR's ability to deliver competitive long-term growth are underscored by the absence of a large exploration discovery over the last few years, a maturing Malaysian position and Eagle Ford growth which is expected to plateau in 2017, UBS says.
- The firm believes these growth concerns could prompt it to pursue an acquisition at a time when E&P valuations and sellers expectations remain inflated.
- Earlier: Chesapeake Energy cut to Sell at UBS
Mon, Jun. 1, 3:58 PM
- Teekay Offshore Partners (TOO -1.1%) says it has signs new long-term contracts with a consortium of energy companies to provide shuttle tanker services for oil production activities on Canada's east coast.
- TOO says it will construct three Suezmax-size, DP2 shuttle tanker newbuildings with a South Korean shipyard for a fully built-up cost of ~$365M, with an option to order a fourth vessel if needed; the three firm vessels are expected to be delivered in Q4 2017 through H1 2018.
- The group of companies include Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Husky Energy (OTCPK:HUSKF), Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR), Statoil (NYSE:STO) and Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU).
Mon, May 18, 7:45 PM
- Goldman Sachs had a lot to say about all corners of the energy sector today in addition to the cut in its long-term oil price forecast, its Sell recommendations for oil majors BP, Statoil (NYSE:STO) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX), and its gloomy outlook for offshore drillers Transocean (NYSE:RIG), Diamond Offshore (NYSE:DO) and Atwood Oceanics (NYSE:ATW).
- Goldman awards a Buy rating for Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), "the only U.S. or European major that can generate sufficient free cash flow to cover its dividend near $60/bbl in 2016-17"; while the firm says other oil majors will be struggling to keep the dividend flat, XOM will be in a position to increase the dividend for the next several years.
- With its expectation for long-term weakness in oil and gas prices, Goldman sees risk exposure in many names that are reliant on commodity prices, suggesting selling LINE, DPM, NGLS, while predicting PAGP and NS would benefit from a removal of the U.S. crude oil export ban.
- The firm thinks many midstream MLP names now offer attractive valuations, recommending ENB, EPD, ETE, PAA, SXL, WNRL.
- Goldman sees an upturn for frac sand provider Emerge Energy (NYSE:EMES), upgrading shares to Buy from Neutral.
- Other Buys: CLR, NFX, CQP, HEP.
- Other Sells: TRP, TCP, GPOR, MUR, GTE
Wed, Apr. 29, 5:19 PM
Wed, Apr. 22, 6:53 PM
- Nomura came out bullish today on the energy E&P sector - issuing Buy ratings for MRO, PXD, EOG, CLR, APC, NFX, RRC, CNQ, CXO, ECA and SU - even as the firm does not foresee a V-shaped rebound in crude oil prices.
- Nomura believes core North American shale plays do not represent the economic marginal cost of supply in the world, which runs counter to commonly held views that largely see shale occupying the high end of the cost curve; thus as oil rebounds, so will investment in the shales, which should support prices, the firm says.
- In such an environment, Nomura says selecting stocks will depend on factors such as ”the reinvestment opportunity set, impact of oilfield technology, continued efficiencies, potential new geologic plays, management acumen and balance sheet strength."
- The firm is Neutral on DVN, HES, MUR, OAS, UPL, WLL, XEC, COG, COP and SWN; it rates NBL, APA, DNR, CHK and CVE as Reduce.
Tue, Mar. 24, 10:46 AM
- Murphy Oil (MUR -2.8%) reaffirms that it sees FY 2015 capex of $2.3B and that it is targeting 10%-20% cost reduction in 2015.
- But shares are sharply lower after MUR says it struck out at two of three wells in a closely watched shallow water drilling program in the Perth basin off Western Australia and came up dry at its operated Urca prospect in the Gulf of Mexico.
Wed, Mar. 18, 3:24 PM
- Crude oil prices, in the doldrums yet again after U.S. inventories hit record highs for a 10th week and supplies at the futures' Cushing delivery hub hit a peak, turned around to finish higher following the Fed policy statement.
- Nymex crude rose 2.5% to settle at $44.66/bbl, pushing off earlier lows of $42.25 and the lowest intraday level since March 2009; Brent is up 4.5% at nearly $56.
- The gain could prove only a momentary recovery, however, as "speculation is going to grow about operational capacity being hit in Cushing and what that portends for prices,” according to Again Capital John Kilduff, adding that he sees U.S.crude testing $40 soon.
- U.S. refiners are enjoying big gains as the Brent/WTI spread surpasses $11: TSO +5.1%, CLMT +4.7%, CVI +4.8%, HFC +4.6%, MUR +4.5%, WNR +4.4%, VLO +3.9%, RDS.A +3.9%, CVRR +3.7%, MPC +3.3%, PSX +3.2%, ALJ +3.2%.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, DTO, DBO, UWTI, USL, DWTI, DNO, SZO, OLO, TWTI, OLEM
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