Wed, Apr. 22, 6:53 PM
- Nomura came out bullish today on the energy E&P sector - issuing Buy ratings for MRO, PXD, EOG, CLR, APC, NFX, RRC, CNQ, CXO, ECA and SU - even as the firm does not foresee a V-shaped rebound in crude oil prices.
- Nomura believes core North American shale plays do not represent the economic marginal cost of supply in the world, which runs counter to commonly held views that largely see shale occupying the high end of the cost curve; thus as oil rebounds, so will investment in the shales, which should support prices, the firm says.
- In such an environment, Nomura says selecting stocks will depend on factors such as ”the reinvestment opportunity set, impact of oilfield technology, continued efficiencies, potential new geologic plays, management acumen and balance sheet strength."
- The firm is Neutral on DVN, HES, MUR, OAS, UPL, WLL, XEC, COG, COP and SWN; it rates NBL, APA, DNR, CHK and CVE as Reduce.
Tue, Mar. 24, 10:46 AM
- Murphy Oil (MUR -2.8%) reaffirms that it sees FY 2015 capex of $2.3B and that it is targeting 10%-20% cost reduction in 2015.
- But shares are sharply lower after MUR says it struck out at two of three wells in a closely watched shallow water drilling program in the Perth basin off Western Australia and came up dry at its operated Urca prospect in the Gulf of Mexico.
Wed, Mar. 18, 3:24 PM
- Crude oil prices, in the doldrums yet again after U.S. inventories hit record highs for a 10th week and supplies at the futures' Cushing delivery hub hit a peak, turned around to finish higher following the Fed policy statement.
- Nymex crude rose 2.5% to settle at $44.66/bbl, pushing off earlier lows of $42.25 and the lowest intraday level since March 2009; Brent is up 4.5% at nearly $56.
- The gain could prove only a momentary recovery, however, as "speculation is going to grow about operational capacity being hit in Cushing and what that portends for prices,” according to Again Capital John Kilduff, adding that he sees U.S.crude testing $40 soon.
- U.S. refiners are enjoying big gains as the Brent/WTI spread surpasses $11: TSO +5.1%, CLMT +4.7%, CVI +4.8%, HFC +4.6%, MUR +4.5%, WNR +4.4%, VLO +3.9%, RDS.A +3.9%, CVRR +3.7%, MPC +3.3%, PSX +3.2%, ALJ +3.2%.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, DTO, DBO, UWTI, USL, DWTI, DNO, SZO, OLO, TWTI, OLEM
Tue, Mar. 10, 6:20 PM
- Clean-up efforts are continuing for a pipeline spill at Murphy Oil's (NYSE:MUR) remote Seal field northeastern Alberta that leaked up to 17K barrels of condensate, more than originally thought.
- The leak initially was found on March 1, with three localized areas of condensate found near the surface of the right-of-way of a condensate transfer line, but an investigation has found the release was found to be up to 17K barrels over an extended period of time.
- MUR and Alberta's energy regulator say there have been no reports of harm to wildlife in the remote area.
Mon, Feb. 9, 5:58 PM
- Some oilfield operators have consistently shown an ability to increase production per well, so the decrease in rig count does not proportionally correlate to a change in production, says NavPort's Eric Foster, who has collated oil well and rig data.
- In a case study focusing on horizontal shale wells in the Eagle Ford basin in Texas, NavPort found that Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) was easily the most efficient fracker last year, with average boe per well during the first 180 days of production of ~142K barrels; ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) were the other two companies with 100K-plus boe/well.
- Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR) showed the greatest efficiency improvement during 2014 among the top 10 Eagle Ford basin oil producers; the only producers in the top 10 showing declines in production per well were BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) and Rosetta Resources (NASDAQ:ROSE).
Wed, Jan. 28, 5:24 PM
Tue, Jan. 27, 5:35 PM| 4 Comments
Tue, Jan. 27, 12:58 PM
- Marathon Oil (MRO -1.3%), Cobalt International Energy (CIE -0.3%) and RSP Permian (RSPP +0.8%) are downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, as the firm cuts its 2015 Brent/WTI crude forecasts to a respective $52.50/bbl and $49/bbl, and lowers 2016 Brent/WTI crude estimates to $67.50 and $62.50.
- UBS also is cautious on several energy names with large free cash flow deficits, slowing growth profiles and rich relative valuations: COP, DVN, MUR, UPL, RRC, DNR, MHR.
- The firm's top Buys are APC, CHK and EOG.
Fri, Jan. 23, 9:45 AM
- Exxon Mobil (XOM -1.3%) opens lower after Credit Suisse downgrades shares to Underperform from Neutral and cuts its stock price target to $82 from $90, writing that major oil companies are entering a period of "less production, more debt and lower upstream cash margins than they were projected to earn six months ago."
- The firm lowers its 2015 EPS estimates for XOM to $2.82 from $5.04, and its 2016 EPS estimates to $5.42 from $6.27.
- Credit Suisse also downgrades several other major oil names, including Chevron (CVX -1.2%), Hess (HES -1.3%), Noble Energy (NBL -1.2%) and Murphy Oil (MUR -1%).
Wed, Jan. 21, 3:42 PM
- Exxon Mobil (XOM +0.8%) is rising after Wells Fargo upgrades shares to Outperform from Market Perform and lifts its valuation range to $96-$100 from a prior $88-$96.
- However, Wells cuts its 2015 and 2016 earnings estimates on XOM: For 2015, the firm sees EPS of $3.77 from its earlier outlook for $6.26, and it cuts its 2016 EPS estimate to $5.63 from $7.66.
- At the same time, the firm downgrades Chevron (CVX +1.5%) and Murphy Oil (MUR +1.2%) to Market Perform from Outperform with respective stock price targets of $108-$116 from $121-$132 and $46-$50 from $59-$63.
- Wells cuts its EPS estimates for CVX to $4.54 from $9.20 for 2015 and to $7.75 from $11.04 for 2016.
Dec. 5, 2014, 5:38 PM
- The Eagle Ford shale formation in south Texas produced its billionth barrel of oil some time last month, according to analysts at research firm Wood Mackenzie.
- Eagle Ford now accounts for 16% of total U.S. oil production, and the firm forecasts E&P spending of $30.8B in the region next year, ~22% of the total $139.3B expected in U.S. onshore spending.
- Eagle Ford is widely considered the most profitable U.S. shale field, and many analysts speculate the break-even price for production to remain profitable is ~$50/bbl in much of the play.
- Top Eagle Ford producers include EOG, CHK, COP, MRO, BHP, APC, APA, BP, COG, CRZO, CWEI, CRK, XOM, GDP, HES, MTDR, MUR, NFX, PVA, PXD, ROSE, RDS.A, RDS.B, SN, SM, STO, SFY, TLM, ZAZA
Dec. 3, 2014, 11:32 AM
- The energy sector (XLE +1.5%) continues its momentum from yesterday, leading the way again as the best performing sector in early trading with crude oil rising 1.2% so far today and reports that U.S. well permits fell 40% last month.
- Top performers include Clayton Williams (CWEI +7.7%), Transocean Partners (RIGP +10.6%), Gaslog (GLOG +13.8%) and Energy XXI (EXXI +15.7%).
- Other leading energy names are showing stronger recoveries as they clear last Friday's bearish gap zone: XOM +0.2%, CVX +0.4%, COP +2.5%, OXY +2.5%, DVN +2.9%, EOG +2.5%, HES +2.2%, MUR +1.5%, NBL +2.3%, PXD +4.2%, SU +3%, CNQ +1.9%.
- Some analysts warn that the worst may not be over, however, as much of the advance is being driven by investors repurchasing ETFs they used to make short bets; investors also could opt to sell oil shares at a loss in coming weeks to reduce tax burdens.
Nov. 27, 2014, 5:11 AM
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Oct. 29, 2014, 5:55 PM
Oct. 9, 2014, 3:25 PM
- Crushed by relentless anxiety about oversupply and weakening global demand, Nymex crude oil futures closed down $1.54 at $85.76/bbl, their lowest close since Dec. 2012, while Brent crude fell below $90/bbl for the first time in more than two years.
- Including today's losses, WTI crude is down 6.2% since the start of the month and Brent has surrendered ~5%.
- In the face of surging output, a move in WTI below its 10-year average at $82 is not out of the realm of possibility, Brown Brothers Harriman says, adding that "a break of $73/barrel could send WTI toward $64, which corresponds with the 2010 low."
- Among big oil names so far today: APC -6.3%, LINE -4.6%, EPD -3.8%, DVN -3.8%, MRO -3.6%, HES -3.8%, KMI -3.7%, TOT -3.5%, STO -3.3%, RDS.A -3.1%, OXY -3%, KMP -3%, XOM -2.6%, COP -2.6%, MUR -2.6%, CVX -2.5%, BP -2.4%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, XOP, DIG, BNO, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, CRUD, IEZ, PXE, USL, UWTI, PXJ, FENY, DNO, DWTI, RYE, FXN, SZO, OLO, DDG, OLEM, TWTI
Oct. 8, 2014, 7:42 AM
- Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) says it has started oil production from the Gumusut-Kakap floating platform off the coast of Malaysia, the latest in a series of Shell deepwater projects.
- Shell expects the Gumusut-Kakap platform to reach annual peak oil production of ~135K bbl/day when fully ramped up.
- The project is a joint venture between operator Shell with a 33% stake, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) with 33%, Malaysia's state-run Petronas with 20%, and Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR) with 14%.
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