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6/20/2013, 8:16 AM ET

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Friday, May 31, 8:45 AM A below par reading on personal spending for April was affected by lower gas prices and home heating bills and isn't a biting indictment on retail spending (AEO, ANF, ARO, BBBY, BBY, BJ, CHS, COH, COST, DG, DLTR, GPS, HD, JCP, JWN, KSS, LOW, LTD, M, NDN, NKE, ODP, PIR, PLCE, RSH, SKS, SPLS, TGT, TJX, URBN, WMT, WSM, ZLC), according to economists. Auto sales also cooled off just a bit in April which had an impact. So far, retail trends have been largely favorable in May as the height of the spring selling season shifted a few weeks later. 4 Comments [Consumer]
Monday, January 28, 10:22 AM The National Retail Federation forecasts 2013 retail sales will increase at a rate of 3.4%, lower than the 4.2% rise seen in 2012. Consumer attitudes will be influenced by higher payroll taxes and the ongoing fiscal cliff drama before improving in the second half of the year, according to the trade group. Retailers with strong online businesses should be able to ride out the moderate growth period adequately with online sales forecast to rise between 9% and 12% for the year. 9 Comments [Consumer]
Thursday, November 29, 2012, 1:29 PM Deloitte retail analyst Alison Paul doesn't think the Hurricane Sandy excuse being trotted out by major retailers is too far off base. After accounting for a significant pre-storm slowdown and major power outages in the Northeast, she thinks the numbers as a whole are actually quite good. In that same vein, other analysts point to layaway sales and online sales yet to ship as two categories that will help December compensate for the light November. 2 Comments [Consumer]
Friday, November 23, 2012, 6:51 AM Black Friday shopping will be the headline story in retail for the day, but the underlying plot will be the effect online channels have on the total sales hauls. Though various trade groups tag Black Friday weekend shopping to see a 3% to 4% rise this year, online shopping is expected to increase by closer to 15% heading into Cyber Monday. Online has also been where the winners and losers in the sector have been separated with major online forces such as Macy's (M) and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) roaring to huge gains - while the likes of J.C. Penney (JCP) and Big Lots (BIG) limp along. 1 Comment [Consumer]
Friday, November 2, 2012, 7:56 AM The recent mix of economic news and retail sales reports sets the table for a holiday retail season that will come in better than original forecasts, according to IHS Global Insight. What to watch: While Hurricane Sandy is only an "interruption" to retailers on a strong growth track and an "excuse" for underperformers, two potential drags on Q4 retail sales could be a fiscal cliff that doesn't get resolved or a national election that is in dispute. 1 Comment [Consumer]
Wednesday, October 31, 2012, 10:04 AM Mall-based retailers and department stores are holding up relatively well in early trading after the effect of Hurricane Sandy was lined up as a major Q4 headwind. The trick now is to figure out which retail firms can recover lost sales. Two notables exceptions to the subdued trading pattern - J.C. Penney (JCP -4.8%) and Sears (SHLD -6.5%) - had a slightly higher percentage of stores in the path of Hurricane Sandy than the average in the sector. 12 Comments [Consumer, On the Move]
Tuesday, October 30, 2012, 10:02 AM Forecasts on the effect of Hurricane Sandy on retail sales still vary greatly, although the general consensus is that a short-term boost of emergency items will lift sales for select companies while the prolonged cleanup could dampen overall holiday sales. Analysts see the list of losers much longer than the list of winners as home repairs take up a great deal of discretionary spending. In a nutshell: Every retailer has a different Sandy-related thesis, with product and geographic mix essential to estimating Q4 numbers. 2 Comments [Consumer]
Friday, October 26, 2012, 11:10 AM Though consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in five years, don't look for retailers to start adjusting guidance anytime soon. In an interview with CNBC yesterday, AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson gave a somewhat frank assessment of how many execs are looking toward Q4 by noting the fiscal cliff could create a standstill to spending over the last ten days of the year as the automatic cuts slated for January 1 loom larger. Even if a late deal is struck, Q4 sales could take a blow. (video) 7 Comments [Consumer, U.S. Economy]
Monday, October 22, 2012, 1:14 PM Retailers want to edge into the holiday shopping season as early as possible this year with most forecasts calling for steady - but not spectacular - spending numbers. Trends to watch: 1) Increased online couponing and promotional activity from fringe players. 2) Managing inventory should be easier with the season starting early and big data initiatives firing up which could help margins. 3) The calendar comes through for retailers with a lush 32-day window between Thanksgiving and Christmas extending the crucial part of the season. 2 Comments [Consumer]
Thursday, October 4, 2012, 7:57 AM The vibe flowing out of September sales reports from retailers is largely positive with big names such as Costo and Limited Brands showing brisk sales, while teen seller Zumiez (ZUMZ) knocked it out of the park with 18.6% growth. Although back-to-school season numbers look to be beating expectations, the best gift for retail investors may be when Q3 reports roll in with companies showing improved margins as clearance sales were avoided and inventory controls clicked. Comment! [Consumer]
Tuesday, October 2, 2012, 6:45 AM The National Retail Federation expects holiday sales to rise 4.1% to $586.1B this year. Though the mark would rep the slowest pace of growth since 2009, the forecast is still higher than the average growth of 3.5% realized over the last ten years for the November to December period. Online retail is still a bright spot, with holiday sales expected to rise 12% this year to $96B. 9 Comments [Consumer]
Monday, October 1, 2012, 1:46 PM Citigroup analyst Deborah Weinswig advises retailers to keep a sharp focus on online initiatives despite the staggering growth numbers bandied about for mobile and social networking sales. Estimates from Forrester Research indicate online retail sales will surge to $327B by 2016 - a mark that is estimated to be 10X greater than what smartphone sales will generate. A roadmap for retailers: Adopt a clever omnichannel strategy that produces synergistic benefits to complement online and brick-and-mortar businesses instead of poaching sales with hyper-aggressive mobile promotions. Comment! [Consumer]
Thursday, September 27, 2012, 12:44 PM Young shoppers are the force behind the rapid growth of showrooming with their grasp on how to use mobile devices to find the best deals, according to research by AlixPartners. Naturally, Amazon (AMZN +2.2%) appears to be a beneficiary of the trend, but brick-and-mortar retailers could have a secret weapon. A retail brief published by Aimia suggests that the very same savvy young shoppers who make showrooming a force of habit are also the most loyal reward program participants. The end game: A loyalty program with soft benefits could steal Amazon's thunder. 2 Comments [Consumer]
Tuesday, September 25, 2012, 1:14 PM Toys R Us Chairman Jerry Storch makes the case on Squawk Box that brick-and-mortar stores won't go away anytime soon, but will morph into mini-distribution centers. The line of thought follows a recent trend by retail players of using existing stores as fulfillment centers and showcasing more extensive pick up options to online buyers. The end game: Retail stores see a competitive advantage over Amazon if they can deliver products faster as they still dream about ultimately offering the holy grail of online shopping - same-day delivery. 13 Comments [Consumer]
Thursday, August 30, 2012, 1:55 PM Today's round of strong sale reports from major retailers may give firms the confidence to hold back on more promotional activity heading into the holiday season, according to AlixPartners. One promising trend is that shoppers stepped out to buy bolder, more fashion-oriented lines - instead of just replenishing the basics. With the retail table now set for a strong Q3 as the back-to-school season roars to a powerful start, optimism starts to creep up that consumers might even keep the good vibes going right through the crucial holiday period. Comment! [Consumer]
Tuesday, July 3, 2012, 1:30 PM Forecasts for June retail sales tip off that sales growth for the sector could come in at the lowest level since August 2009, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters. After Nike (NKE) and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) set the tone with disheartening guidance, the whole sector is on on watch to determine the effects on revenue of a jittery U.S. consumer. Even if a company's numbers are solid, the question of how management is using discounting and promotions to pump up sales will remain in focus. 3 Comments [Consumer]