Dec. 19, 2014, 5:36 PM
Dec. 11, 2014, 11:55 AM
- Cowen's commodities research team discusses some top precious metals producers that have positioned themselves well to generate free cash flow in 2015 at current gold prices; those keeping all-in costs under $1,000/oz. can crank out profits while waiting for prices to rebound.
- Among the three stocks that meet Cowen's criteria, Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) is the largest and perhaps the strongest of the group, thanks in part to the ~$5B in cash, revolver capacity and marketable securities on its balance sheet.
- Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) recently announced a 5% hike in its annual dividend, a bullish corporate statement for shareholders in a tough environment.
- Yamana Gold (NYSE:AUY) rounds out rounds out Cowen's top three sector stocks to buy.
Dec. 1, 2014, 4:45 PM
- Gold futures surged 3.6% to reclaim the $1,200 level for the first time since late October, sparked in part by the downgrade of Japan’s sovereign debt rating and a retreat in the dollar, as well as India easing its import restrictions and some short covering.
- Gold had sold off initially amid news that Swiss voters rejected a referendum to force the Swiss National Bank to hold 20% of its reserves in gold, slumping to overnight lows near $1,140/oz. before rallying to settle at $1,218.
- As a result, gold miners were among the strongest sectors, with the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) finishing 7.7% higher; investors also may have reacted to takeover speculation, as weekend reports said Paramount Gold (NYSEMKT:PZG) was is in talks to be acquired by Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE).
- Among the top precious metals miners: ABX +4.3%, AEM +6.9%, AU +9.1%, GG +8.2%, GFI +9.2%, SLW +7.2%, NEM +6.8%, AGI +7.7%, IAG +11.3%, AUY +7.4%, KGC +8.5%, NGD +13.7%, GOLD +6.4%, RGLD +7%.
- Other ETFs: NUGT, DUST, SIL, GLDX, SLVP, RING, SGDM, PSAU
Nov. 28, 2014, 1:21 PM
- Already hit hard over the last two years by declining prices, gold and silver miners saw more pain today as commodity stocks in general got hammered thanks to OPEC's decision not to slash crude production.
- Decliners: ABX -8%. GG -6.1%. AUY -9.8%. KGC -8.2%. GFI -9.9%. SLW -7%. NEM -5.8%. AGI -6.9%. PAAS -9%. AG -15.4%. SSRI -11.6%. CDE -11.4%. HL -8.8%. TAHO -7.8%.
- Previous: Precious metals slide alongside oil; Swiss vote ahead
Nov. 20, 2014, 3:13 PM
- Given the uncertain and volatile outlook for the dollar and thus gold prices, J.P. Morgan's commodities team suggests three "conservative" pair trades it expects to be profitable in a neutral or weaker metal price environment.
- The firm recommends buying Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) and selling Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX), “driven by the idea that the deal where Barrick buys Newmont could be back."
- Buy Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM) and sell New Gold (NYSEMKT:NGD), as JPM sees underground mines as more resilient than open pits, and AEM has fallen more sharply than deserved.
- Also, JPM likes buying Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW) and selling Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE), as it believes royalty/streaming companies will be more robust in times of weak metals prices than pure-play miners.
Nov. 18, 2014, 3:59 PM
- Gold prices jumped 1.2% to settle just shy of $1,200/oz. as the dollar eased against major currencies amid tensions in eastern Europe and the Middle East, and some observers are starting to ask if gold mining and production stocks (GDX +4.8%) have finally found a bottom.
- 24/7's Chris Lange thinks gold giants may have hit their lows on Nov. 5, followed by an impressive recovery since that date with gold fundamentals apparently not changing drastically.
- Major precious metals miners are strong across the board: ABX +6.5%, AEM +4.4%, AU +6.2%, GG +3.7%, GFI +7.6%, SLW +3.6%, NEM +3.4%, AGI +4.9%, IAG +6.6%, AUY +6.8%, KGC +9.2%, NGD +2.8%, GOLD +1.9%, RGLD +3.7%.
- Other ETFs: GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, JNUG, GLDX, JDST, SLVP, SILJ, RING, SGDM, PSAU
Nov. 14, 2014, 10:58 AM
- The gold market will enter deficit by 2016 as producers cut capex, resulting in reduced supply in the medium- to long-term, Credit Suisse analyst Anita Soni writes, seeing 2014 as a likely plateau for supply (Briefing.com).
- Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM +2.6%) and Eldorado Gold (EGO +4.5%) are the firm's top picks among gold miners under coverage.
- Other Outperform rated gold companies are GG, KGC, AUY, AUQ, FNV, GSS and IAG; rated Neutral are ABX, NEM, NGD and AGI.
Nov. 10, 2014, 6:46 PM
- With gold trading down as low as $1,131/oz., precious metals miners were hit hard again today, with the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) tumbling 6.3% and now 17% lower YTD.
- Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX), which fell 6.7% today, was the subject of negative comments from Deutsche Bank, which said, “Management’s target net debt of $7B, conveyed on its 3Q14 earnings conference call, is a tall order without a combination of a higher gold price and asset sales.”
- Mining companies at least can look forward to the modest consolation prize of weaker local currencies and falling oil prices that will help trim their costs; for example, Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM) estimates local currency declines could reduce its U.S. dollar-denominated cash production costs by 5%-6%.
- Also today: AU -9.8%, GG -4.8%, GFI -4.6%, SLW -4.7%, NEM -5.9%, AGI -6.8%, IAG -6.1%, AUY -6.6%, KGC -6.4%, NGD -7.2%, GOLD -5.1%, RGLD -5.3%.
- Other ETFs: GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, JNUG, GLDX, JDST, SLVP, SILJ, RING, SGDM, PSAU
Nov. 7, 2014, 4:39 PM
- Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) likely will secure key community support for its $5B Minas Conga gold project in Peru, as the company and its partner Buenaventura (NYSE:BVN) are winning over communities that opposed the project, the country’s environment minister says.
- Local communities have opposed the project on concerns over water availability at the site, but the minister now believes an understanding can be reached.
- NEM and BVN stopped work after violent protests staged by local villagers that began in 2011.
Oct. 31, 2014, 3:42 PM
- In another miserable day for gold miner stocks, Newmont Mining (NEM -7.7%) is lagging most peers as investors decide its Q3 earnings beat is not as impressive as it looks, particularly in a declining gold price environment.
- Deutsche Bank, cutting its price target on the shares to $20 from $25, notes that NEM reported a wide EBITDA miss, posting $378M vs. $465M consensus; the firm says NEM's free cash flow outlook is turning negative on weaker than expected operational results and with capex spend projected to rise ~$350M in 2015.
Oct. 31, 2014, 11:35 AM
- Precious metals miners are slammed for a third straight session as gold prices plunged to multiyear lows.
- Japan’s surprise stimulus move is supporting the U.S. dollar and driving the ICE U.S. Dollar index to a four-year high, making gold more expensive to overseas buyers; while the prospect for more monetary stimulus usually increases the lure of gold, the threat of global deflation has withered gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices, Barron's Chris Dieterich explains.
- Nearly everyone in the sector is hitting 52-week lows (again): ABX -4.5%, NEM -7.7%, GG -0.5%, SLW -3.6%, AGI -5.8%, AEM -4.1%, AUY -10.6%, IAG -4.6%, KGC -16.2%, NGD -6.1%, AU -2%, GOLD -1.6%.
- Also: GFI -7.4%, RGLD -3.8%.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, JNUG, GLDX, JDST, SLVP, RING, SGDM, PSAU
Oct. 30, 2014, 6:58 PM
- Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) +1.6% AH after adjusted Q3 earnings rose 13% Y/Y and easily beat analyst estimates as costs fell.
- Q3 gold production totaled 1.15M oz., slightly below output of 1.28M oz. in the year-ago quarter, with higher production in Africa following the start-up of Akyem partially offset by lower production in North America primarily due to planned stripping campaigns at Carlin and Twin Creeks which are expected to continue into 2015.
- All-in sustaining costs were $995/oz. vs. $1,018 a year ago.
- Reaffirms its total attributable gold production estimate for the year at 4.7M-5M oz. and copper production of 80K-90K metric tons, and expects costs to come in at the low end of guidance.
Oct. 30, 2014, 5:22 PM
Oct. 29, 2014, 7:40 PM
- Precious metals miners and the ETFs that track them were slammed today as the Fed moved to end its bond purchase program.
- Today’s 4.3% swoon in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) drives the price below $20 for the first time since Oct. 2008, and the Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:SIL) tumbled 3.5% to its lowest finish since its launch in April 2010.
- The Fed action was expected, but paired with a more upbeat assessment of the U.S. labor market, gold’s appeal is further dampened vs. income generating assets, Barron's Chris Dieterich writes.
- Among individual names today: ABX -5.1%, NEM -4.7%, GG -4.1%, GFI -3.2%, SLW -3.3%, AGI -3.4%, AEM -4.7%, AUY -4.1%, IAG -4.6%, KGC -2.9%, NGD -4.3%, AU -3.3%, RGLD -4.8%, GOLD -2.5%.
- Other ETFs: GLD, SLV, GDXJ, NUGT, AGQ, IAU, DUST, USLV, SIVR, JNUG, SGOL, ZSL, UGL, GLDX, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, JDST, DSLV, SLVP, OUNZ, DGL, DBS, SILJ, DGZ, RING, DGLD, AGOL, SGDM, PSAU, USV, UBG, BAR, BARS
Oct. 29, 2014, 1:12 PM
Oct. 20, 2014, 3:59 PM
- Citigroup upgrades Freeport McMoRan (FCX +1.5%) and three other names in the mining and energy sector, attracted to their valuations after stocks in its coverage area have been hit by the recent correction in the broader market, even as it downgrades Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF +2.2%).
- Analyst Brian Yu raises FCX to Neutral from Sell following the price decline, saying that while the company remains highly leveraged to global growth based on its copper and oil exposure, FCX has been aggressively selling assets to manage the balance sheet.
- Consol Energy (CNX -0.1%), Newmont Mining (NEM +2%) and Alliance Holdings (AHGP +1.9%) are all lifted to Buy from Neutral.
NEM vs. ETF Alternatives
Newmont Mining Corp is engaged in the production of and exploration for gold and copper. It is also engaged in the production of copper, mainly through its Batu Hijau operation in Indonesia and Boddington operation in Australia.
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