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NFLX
Netflix, Inc. - NASDAQ

4/18/2014, 6:54 AM ET
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  • Earnings Preview - Netflix Q1 2014
    Selerity Research Yesterday, 3:20 PM

    Summary

    • Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is slated to report 1Q2014 earnings after the bell on Monday, April 21.
    • Earnings Per Share (EPS): Company guidance in January was for $0.78. The current Street estimate is $0.83 (range $0.76 to $1.01).
    • Revenues: Analysts expect and increase of 23.6% y/y to $1.27 bln (range $1.24 bln to $1.28 bln).
  • Why Apple And Amazon Are No Threat To Netflix, Stock Will Regain $400
    Wall Street Playbook Yesterday, 2:49 PM 23 Comments

    Summary

    • On the basis of growing free cash flow, revenue and global subscribers, these shares will regain their $400 market shortly after these results are announced.
    • Netflix has amassed 44 million worldwide subscribers and expect to grow that figure by an additional 4 million in 2014, helped by Netflix's ability to differentiate itself.
    • Given Apple's strict attention to profit margins, Apple is not likely to follow Netflix's unlimited streaming model.
  • Netflix Will Move Hard After Earnings: Here's How I'd Trade It
    Quoth the Raven Wed, Apr. 16 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Netflix stock has been crushed over the last month.
    • The company reports next Monday, and Netflix earnings are often volatile.
    • A long straddle trade could take advantage of a volatility and offer a hedge to an already existing position.
  • Netflix: Even More Dangerous
    David Trainer Fri, Apr. 4 57 Comments

    Summary

    • Don't be fooled by Netflix's strong performance in 2013, the stock is still in trouble.
    • Content costs are rising much faster than revenues, putting the entire business model in jeopardy.
    • Even after a 20% drop last month, the valuation still implies an unrealistic level of growth.
  • Netflix Is Ready To Buy On Underestimated Market Power
    Michael B. Krause Wed, Mar. 26 40 Comments

    Summary

    • NFLX is misunderstood by those who look at conventional valuation metrics.
    • The value is in its ability to scale up its streaming offering price.
    • The brand now has staying power. Less fad risk than ever.
  • Considerations For Hedged Netflix Shareholders
    David Pinsen Wed, Mar. 26 6 Comments

    Summary

    • NFLX shareholders who hedged last month with the hedge shown below were down 6.8% from 2/18 to 3/25, while the stock was down 15.1% over the same period.
    • Hedged NFLX shareholders can exit now with a smaller loss, hold, or use their appreciated hedges to buy more of the stock.
    • Given Carl Icahn's announcement Monday, plus NFLX's still-rich valuation, exiting now may be a prudent choice for hedged NFLX shareholders.
  • Netflix: Fair Value $128/Share, 67% Downside - Primed To Plunge
    Nitin Gulati Tue, Mar. 25 31 Comments

    Summary

    • My fair value estimate for Netflix is $128/share.
    • Netflix will need to reinvest $8.3 billion by 2020.
    • Needs to raise $1.5 billion either by equity offering or by raising debt to fund the investment shortfall.
  • Profit From The Gossip Against Netflix
    Alcaraz Research Tue, Mar. 25 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Netflix long-term investors should consider buying options to counter a bearish run over rumors of Apple & Comcast streaming media alliance.
    • Comcast may not want to let Apple get control of customer data of set-top box subscribers.
    • Good cash flow and years of growth has made Netflix mature enough to survive Apple’s possible entry in streaming media.
  • Is Apple Going To Be The Death Of Netflix?
    Vern Hoffmann Tue, Mar. 25 30 Comments

    Summary

    • The AAPL-Comcast talks are not the reason for today's drop in NFLX.
    • The rumored sale by Carl Icahn of NFLX stock is the more likely catalyst.
    • NFLX is in a good position technically.
  • Netflix Investors May Want To Sit One Out. It May Be Popcorn Time
    Michael Blair Mon, Mar. 24 39 Comments

    Summary

    • In a few weeks, Popcorn Time went from unheard of to notoriety.
    • The emergence of Popcorn Time has reminded investors how little Netflix actually does.
    • Expect to see even more creative ways to distribute movie content.
    • Expect to see Netflix suffer pain as a result.
  • Amazon And Netflix See Opportunity As Studios Abandon Small Films
    Glen S. Woods Sun, Mar. 23 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Studios are relying on big budget productions that cost upwards of $250 million which leave little room for developing smaller film projects.
    • The film industry is now a global market, with the U.S. accounting for only 30% of the revenue.
    • Netflix and Amazon are expanding their own business by developing content for smaller productions aimed for their subscribers.
    • Smaller budget films, which cost roughly $2 million, if successful, bring in revenue between $4 million to $40 million, a high ROI.
  • Is Netflix Playing A Game Of Chicken?
    Nitin Gulati Thu, Mar. 20 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Netflix is strategically building leverage to compete with ISPs.
    • Company is focusing on selectivity, capacity and shifting competencies to grow its subscriber base.
    • International growth will be key for Netflix.
  • Netflix Still Has Long Way To Go

    Summary

    • Netflix is taking further steps to expand its international operations. I have analyzed the company’s plan to expand its operations in France.
    • Netflix closed out 2013 with 31.7 million paid subscribers in the U.S. and another 9.7 million abroad spread across the 41 countries in which the company operates.
    • Analysts say that Europe offers compelling target markets for Netflix. Germany and France are the fourth- and sixth-largest broadband markets in the world, respectively, according to market researcher SNL Kagan.
    • A more diverse subscriber base will go a long way towards recovering the $3 billion it spent on content in 2013 and improving its free cash flow.
  • Can Global Crossing And WorldCom Teach Us Anything About Netflix Or Pandora? I Think So
    Michael Blair Tue, Mar. 18 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Online content providers like Netflix or Pandora trade at nosebleed earnings multiples.
    • The content they provide is of value but their distribution service will become a commodity.
    • When it does, the earnings multiples for these stocks will fall sharply.
    • Rapid growth leads to rapidly saturated markets. This game will mature in a very few years.
    • When it does, investors who paid up for growth might get spanked.
  • Favorable Growth Prospects For Netflix
    Gemstone Equity Research Fri, Mar. 14 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Over the next year, across the world internet TV will replace the traditional TV and the global internet TV market will grow.
    • Apps will replace channels, remote controls will disappear and screens will proliferate. Smartphones, tablets, and smart TVs will become the source of internet streaming at anytime and anywhere.
    • Since internet TV market is growing from millions to billions, Netflix is making its move by expanding.
  • Netflix Thrives While Big Media Companies Fight The Future
    Mark Hibben Thu, Mar. 13 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Netflix is at the forefront of a disruptive transformation in video content delivery.
    • Content delivery is shifting from traditional broadcast modes (over-the-air, cable, satellite) to Internet delivery.
    • Big Media companies such as the owners of Hulu are delaying the transformation in order to maximize return on their investments in the existing broadcast infrastructure.
    • This only helps Netflix gain subscribers.
  • A Share Of Netflix Vs. A Tulip Bulb In Amsterdam 1637: Nosebleed Valuation

    Summary

    • Human greed and self-delusion are the drivers of bubbles in a market.
    • Netflix is trading at 184 times trailing earnings and 94 times expected earnings on the back of the greater fool tendency of humans.
    • Investors who purchase shares of Netflix today risk losing capital which could buy plenty of utility. Comparisons with 1637 tulip bulb utility provide insight.
  • Netflix Is No Stranger To The Pivot
    Marshall Hargrave Tue, Mar. 11 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Netflix has pivoted from DVDs to streaming and it's doing it again with content creation.
    • Original content and the Comcast deal will help attract subscribers, while boosting margins.
    • Even with modest free cash flow growth, fair value is 20% higher.
NFLX vs. ETF Alternatives
Company Description

Netflix, Inc., provides internet television network. The Company has three operating segments: Domestic streaming, International streaming and Domestic DVD.

Sector: Services
Country: United States