Jan. 23, 2014, 9:12 AM| Jan. 23, 2014, 9:12 AM | Comment!
Jan. 23, 2014, 9:11 AM
- Analysts are full of commentary on Netflix (NFLX) after the company ran a clean sweep of besting estimates on various metrics, but Needham might have the most interesting early analysis.
- Sizzling subscriber growth and margin momentum are just the start as the investment firm is convinced that even at Netflix's lofty trading price, investors are discounting the potential for explosive profit growth with the international business.
- There's also a reminder that the DVD business, though strategically not a factor anymore, is still a driver of free cash flow.
- Shares are rated a Buy with a price target of $425.
- NFLX +17.3% premarket to $391.60.
Jan. 22, 2014, 4:28 PM
- Netflix (NFLX) says it believes a contribution margin rate of over 30% is achievable in 2015.
- The company is busy analyzing consumer response to its pricing tiering changes (multiple-stream, SD vs HD, pricing) and hopes to settle on a selection of just three simple options. No word if the highest price point will be boosted.
- This year, Netflix plans to start "substantial" expansion in Europe where it sees a large opportunity.
- Breaking Bad will be available in all international markets this year, while Better Call Saul will debut in select global markets and the U.S. following its AMC run.
- NFLX +16.7% AH.
Jan. 22, 2014, 4:10 PM
- Netflix (NFLX) soars in the after-hours session after beating on both lines with its Q4 report and showing plenty of momentum with subscriber growth.
- The company added 2.33M subscribers in the U.S., compared to the company's guidance for a gain of 1.61M-2.41M subscribers. Analysts expected U.S. subscriber additions of around 2.05M.
- International net additions during the quarter came in at 1.74M, up 300K Q/Q and down slightly from the year-ago period.
- Streaming margin was 23.4%, just ahead of guidance of 23.2% and down 30 bps Q/Q.
- The forecast for Q1 2014 is for an addition of another 2.25M subscribers in the U.S. and 1.60M international subscribers.
- Netflix shareholder letter (.pdf)
- NFLX +13.5% to $378.80 AH
Jan. 22, 2014, 4:03 PM
Jan. 22, 2014, 12:10 AM
Jan. 21, 2014, 5:35 PM
Jan. 21, 2014, 10:57 AM
- Ahead of tomorrow's Q4 report, Needham's Laura Martin has lowered her Netflix (NFLX -2.3%) estimates below consensus. The move comes just three months after Martin started coverage on Netflix with a Buy and $425 PT.
- Pac Crest (Sector Perform) is also out with a cautious note on Netflix: Though believing Q4 results will be in-line, the firm is worried U.S. growth will slow going forward.
- Shares remain up over 5x from their fall 2012 lows.
Jan. 15, 2014, 11:43 AM
- After trading sideways yesterday (in the face of a market rally) following an appeals court's decision to throw out the FCC's wireline net neutrality rules, Netflix (NFLX -4.9%) is diving today.
- Wedbush's Michael Pachter (Underperform) thinks ISPs could try to charge Netflix and others a fee for every GB of data transmitted over their networks. He notes each hour of SD and 1080p video streamed by Netflix to 40"-50" TV sets respectively consumes 1GB and 6.5GB of data.
- Though services such as Netflix drive demand for high-speed connections, U.S. ISPs (many of whom double as pay-TV providers) have nonetheless been upset over the streaming giant's heavy data consumption. Netflix has been trying to address the issue via its Open Connect CDN, but not all major ISPs are on board.
- FCC chairman Tom Wheeler has already said his agency might appeal yesterday's ruling, so as to guarantee "networks on which the Internet depends continue to provide a free and open platform for innovation and expression."
- Wheeler previously suggested Netflix could pay ISPs to guarantee subscribers "receive the best possible transmission." But he also reiterated his opposition to allowing ISPs to block/limit services.
Jan. 14, 2014, 4:37 PM
- Fox (FOXA) says it will launch shows whenever it feels like it might be a strategic time throughout the calendar year as it breaks from the concept of a strict pilot season.
- Though the move runs the risk of disrupting how big budget ad buyers approach new shows, it also reflects the modern reality that TV viewers have given up on the idea of a "TV season" as their choices from cable networks, Amazon, and Netflix (NFLX) proliferate all year long.
- Down the road, consumer product companies could also benefit as data mining and Internet-viewer tracking becomes a larger factor in advertising spending than the wining and dining at the annual May upfront meetings.
- Expect CBS (CBS), NBC (CMCSA), and ABC (DIS) to consider similar moves.
Jan. 14, 2014, 10:20 AM
- A federal appeals court has struck down the FCC's net neutrality rule, which prohibits wireline (but not wireless) service providers from discriminating against or providing preferential treatment for certain types of data traffic.
- Though the ruling is likely to be appealed further, it represents a major win for AT&T (T -0.3%) and Verizon (VZ -0.5%), who have been lobbying hard to do away with net neutrality. It's a loss for Netflix (NFLX -0.1%), whose heavy bandwidth consumption has drawn the ire of numerous ISPs (many of whom it directly or indirectly competes with), as well as other major Web traffic sources.
- The ruling comes a week after AT&T's mobile unit triggered an uproar by launching its Sponsored Data program.
Jan. 13, 2014, 9:20 AM
Jan. 7, 2014, 11:57 AM
- Online purchases of movies rose 47% to $1.12B in 2013 in the U.S., according to Digital Entertainment Group. The striking growth rate has calmed fears that consumers would opt to wait for rental windows to open up before buying movies.
- Streaming subscription rentals rose 32% to $3.16B during the period.
- Kiosk DVD sales slipped 1%, but the aging business still commanded $1.9B in sales. Brick-and-mortar rentals were off 14.3% to $1.042B.
- If there was a surprise, it might be the relatively slow pace of VOD movie sales, up only 4.8% to $2.11B.
- Full report (.pdf)
- Related stocks: NFLX, OUTR, VZ, CMCSA, CHTR, CVC, TWC, DIS, FOXA, DISH, DTV.
Jan. 7, 2014, 7:05 AM
Jan. 2, 2014, 2:34 PM
- Amazon (AMZN -0.7%) has taken a low-key approach to marketing Prime Instant Video even as its content library has swelled to include 40K+ movies and TV episodes, but that might be starting to change. The company recently began airing a TV ad (video) trumpeting Prime Instant's library and relatively low cost.
- Prime Instant comes bundled with a $79/year Amazon Prime subscription. As with many other things, Amazon has provided few details about usage rates for the service, which the company has spent hundreds of millions (if not more) to build out.
- The fact Amazon doesn't provide a monthly subscription option for Prime has held back Prime Instant's growth relative to Netflix (NFLX -1.8%) which had 31.1M U.S. subs at the end of Q3. But with Prime subscription growth having apparently picked up lately, the service is nonetheless now available to quite a few U.S. consumers.
- Amazon recently proclaimed it now has "tens of millions" of Prime subs, and CIRP estimated last month the Prime subscriber base had grown to 16.7M.
Dec. 31, 2013, 3:39 AM
- Netflix (NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings will receive a pay rise of 50% in 2014 after a year in which shares in the video-streaming company surged almost 300% and its TV programming won three Emmy awards.
- Hastings will earn a salary of $3M and $3M in stock options, up from $2M and $2M respectively. Fellow senior managers will also enjoy pay hikes, including CFO David Wells and Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos.
- See also: Netflix terminates poison pill. (8-K)
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Netflix Inc operates as an Internet television network providing TV shows & movies which include original series, documentaries & feature films. The Company has three segments namely Domestic streaming, International streaming & Domestic DVD.
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