Jul. 22, 2014, 11:24 AM
- "The launch into the six new European markets appears costlier than anticipated," writes Janney after taking in Netflix's (NFLX -4.5%) light Q3 EPS outlook. Though the company expects its U.S. streaming contribution profit to rise $18M Q/Q to $245M, its international contribution loss is expected to grow $27M to $42M.
- RBC expects Netflix's international ops to stay in "early-stage margin mode" for several years. Nonetheless, it sees the unit's margins matching U.S. levels long-term, and is reiterating an Outperform.
- Over a dozen firms have still hiked their Netflix targets in response to the company's better-than-expected subscriber adds and healthy Q3 sub forecast. Pac Crest (PT hiked by $10 to $530) notes total Q2 adds of 1.7M beat its forecast by 300K, and that lower marketing spend is offsetting higher content costs (thus driving margin expansion as revenue grows).
- Mentioned on the CC (transcript): 1) CFO David Wells suggests Netflix open to stepping up its content spend once margins hit 30%. U.S. streaming margin was at 27.1% in Q2. 2) Reed Hastings declares the impact of Netflix's price hike on sub adds to be minimal. 3) Expenses related to paid peering deals are dwarfed by content costs. 4) 10%-20% of international content tends to be local fare. 5) Netflix sees its superior TV show library as a differentiator relative to Amazon's European service (formerly called Lovefilm).
- Prior Netflix earnings coverage
Jul. 21, 2014, 4:16 PM
- Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) expects Q3 EPS of $0.89, below a $1.06 consensus.
- 570K U.S. streaming subs were added in Q2, above guidance of 520K. 1.12M international subs were added, above guidance of 940K. The U.S. and international bases respectively stood at 36.2M and 13.8M at quarter's end. The DVD base fell by 391K to 6.3M.
- Netflix expects to add 1.33M U.S. subs in Q3, and 2.36M international subs.
- Q2 free cash flow was $16M vs. $8M in Q1 and $13M a year ago. Domestic streaming contribution profit rose to $227M from $151M a year ago (margin of 27.1%), and international streaming contribution loss fell to $15M from $66M (margin of -5%).
- Streaming content obligations total $7.7B, up from $7.1B at the end of Q1 and $6.4B a year ago.
- ARPU is expected to "rise slowly" thanks to price hikes for new members. Netflix will launch in Germany, France, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, and Luxembourg in September.
- NFLX +1.6% AH. Q2 results, shareholder letter (.pdf)
Jul. 21, 2014, 4:02 PM
Jul. 20, 2014, 5:35 PM
Jul. 18, 2014, 11:28 AM
- Netflix (NFLX +0.2%) added 900M subscribers in the U.S. and 1.1M abroad during Q2, forecasts BMO Capital.
- The company reports its quarterly results on Monday afternoon with some of the focus expected to move outside of straight number-crunching to dissect which new global markets Netflix plans to enter in 2H and what the costs of those launches will be.
- Earnings preview
Jul. 17, 2014, 9:25 AM| 3 Comments
Jul. 16, 2014, 1:29 PM
- Though Time Warner (TWX +16.7%) CEO Jeffrey Bewkes posted a video on the company's blog in which he resoundingly rejects the offer from 21st Century Fox (FOXA -3.5%), there's a line of though amongst media analysts that the response is part of choreographed song-and-dance.
- Deadline.com notes former Murdoch confidante Gary Ginsberg is now a top lieutenant for Bewkes and could be the key man in brokering a deal.
- Ripple#1: A combination of the two companies could light a fire under M&A activity in the media sector between content producers (DISCA, LGF, AMCX, SNI, VIA, VIAB) and tech heavyweights such as Google, Apple, or Sony which haven't pulled the trigger yet on a mega-content deal.
- Ripple #2: Two companies in the cross-hairs of a TWX-FOXA combination are Disney (DIS -1%) which could see ESPN lose a little bit of leverage with TNT and TBS linked with Fox Sports and Netflix (NFLX -1%) where a challenge from HBO in more global markets would be likely.
Jul. 16, 2014, 8:30 AM
- Shares of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) are on watch with reports filtering in that 21st Century Fox's major interest in Time Warner is the HBO business and the global streaming opportunity of the property.
- There's two schools of thought on the impact of a 21st Century Fox-owned HBO: 1) The hefty premium offered on TWX will support valuation on Netflix. 2) The gargantuan distribution network of Fox is a serious competitive threat to Netflix.
- NFLX +0.9% premarket
Jul. 15, 2014, 3:26 PM
- Netflix (NFLX -0.9%) is letting its DVD business die off slowly, instead of making the dramatic move of ending the still-profitable business in one fell swoop, observes Re/code.
- The company has stopped delivering DVDs on Saturdays and does little to market the physical disc business anymore. These measures and others make the contributing margin of the DVD business look lush compared to streaming.
- Despite the lack of attention, 6.7M Netflix subscribers still wait for their next movie by mail.
Jul. 14, 2014, 10:42 AM
- Fresh research from Annalect indicates more than a third of binge-viewing TV watchers would agree to watch some ads if it meant they could score lower subscription rates.
- In an interesting twist, binge viewers end up discussing with friends and family the ads they do see at a higher rate than normal viewers.
- What to watch: Streaming services such as Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Hulu, and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) are still trying to define how advertising can be part of their model, with dynamic ads tapped to be an effective way to increase relevancy and conversion rates. On the content side, major networks (CBS, DIS, CMCSA, FOXA) want to move to a C7 system (7-day window) of counting ads from C3 in order to capture VOD, streaming, and DVR viewers.
Jul. 11, 2014, 10:14 AM
- The Department of Justice has asked CBS (CBS +0.2%), Disney (DIS -0.2%), and Discover Communications (DISCA +0.2%) to weigh in on the proposed merger between Comcast (CMCSA -0.2%) and Time Warner Cable (TWC -0.2%).
- Presumably, the media companies expressed concern over NBCUniversal receiving preferential treatment if the deal is approved.
- Netflix (NFLX +1%) and Dish Network (DISH +0.4%) are already on record as opposing the deal.
Jul. 10, 2014, 9:06 AM| Comment!
Jul. 9, 2014, 8:42 AM
- Select media stocks could see some volatility this week with the Allen & Co. Conference in Sun Valley, Idaho expected to get some M&A rumors kickstarted.
- This year's affair arrives with two mega-mergers (AT&T-DirecTV and Comcast-Time Warner Cable) looming large in the industry, and in a development which bodes well for content owners, will be attended by tech heavyweights such as Facebook's Sheryl Sandberg, Netflix's (NFLX) Reed Hastings, and Twitter's Dick Costolo.
- The eclectic mix also includes Warren Buffett and NBA commissioner Adam Silver who will chat up media execs with the NBA TV contract up for bid soon.
- Analysts expect the Allen conference to be high on stock-moving rumors, but light on binding deals.
- Rumored deals: A Discovery Communications (DISCA)-Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI) merger; Verizon (VZ) taking a run at Hulu (DIS, CMCSA, FOXA); 21st Century Fox (FOXA) offering a hefty premium for Time Warner (TWX).
- Related ETF: PBS
Jul. 1, 2014, 7:19 AM
- Goldman Sachs upgrades Netflix (NFLX) to a Buy rating and assigns a price target of $590 to shares.
- The investment firm sees scale coming into play or content acquisition costs as international growth takes off.
- Higher average revenue per user tallies in the U.S. are also on the way for Netflix, predicts Goldman.
- NFLX +3.5% premarket to $456.
Jun. 26, 2014, 9:54 AM
- Barclays has started Netflix (NFLX -1.1%) with an Underweight and $390 PT. The firm is worried about the streaming giant's valuation and slowing international profits.
- Netflix's international ops posted a $35M op. loss n Q1, a figure that contrasted sharply with the $201M op. profit posted by its U.S. streaming ops.
- But international op. loss is expected to fall to $12M in Q2, and (in spite of aggressive European expansion plans) Netflix has said the business is "on a path to achieve profitability this year."
- Shares currently go for 4.8x 2014E sales, and 4x 2015E sales.
Jun. 20, 2014, 1:54 PM
- Germany's Magazine Manager reports Netflix (NFLX -0.3%) is in advanced talks with Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY) about a marketing partnership ahead of the streaming giant's planned German launch
- DT, by far Germany's biggest carrier, is said to be comfortable with a tie-up even though it indirectly competes with Netflix through its Entertain IPTV service. Netflix is also reportedly talking with other local carriers.
- Netflix, already operating in several European countries, is also looking to enter France and 4 other continental markets this year. The company was reported in April to be talking with Vodafone (operates in many European markets) about a free streaming promotion.
- Netflix's relationships with U.S. service providers have often been thornier.
NFLX vs. ETF Alternatives
Netflix Inc operates as an Internet television network providing TV shows & movies which include original series, documentaries & feature films. The Company has three segments namely Domestic streaming, International streaming & Domestic DVD.
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