Oct. 16, 2014, 9:13 AM
Oct. 16, 2014, 7:43 AM
- There's a widespread reset of expectations on Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) after the company delivers subscriber growth below guidance in Q3 and gets a reality check with HBO stepping into the streaming fray.
- Wedbush: Bearish-leaning analyst Michael Pachter take a victory lap over the sell-off, but also stays focused on the disparity between Netflix's net income and free cash flow. There's $448M over 9 quarters that needs to be sorted out, says Pachter.
- RBC: The long-term thesis on the streaming concern is still intact. PT clipped to $550.
- Piper Jaffray: The "priced for perfection" stock sees its price target reduced to $345 by analyst Michael Olson. Estimates on FY14 and FY EPS are chopped lower.
- Goldman Sachs: NFLX is still a Buy as the investment firm stays focused on revenue growth - instead of the subscriber guidance miss.
- Citigroup: The price target on Netflix is lowered to $365 due to a new set of expectations on growth and competition.
- NFLX earnings coverage: top and bottom lines, earnings report highlights, comments on HBO, conference call breakdown.
- NFLX -25.3% premarket to $335.15.
Oct. 15, 2014, 5:37 PM
Oct. 15, 2014, 4:26 PM
- Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) issues a statement on the move by Time Warner to offer HBO as a stand-alone service
- The company spins the move as inevitable and sensible, while predicting both streaming services will prosper as consumers move to Internet TV.
- CEO Reed Hastings has a long history of complimenting HBO, but he will be as eager as anyone to get a better view of how the new HBO streaming product will be marketed and priced.
- Shares of NFLX are down 23.4% in AH trading to $344.10 after Q3 results.
Oct. 15, 2014, 4:08 PM
- Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) reports its added 3.02M subscribers in Q3 vs. guidance of 3.69M and a recent history of 1.69M (Q2), 4.0M (Q1), 4.07M (Q4 2013), and 2.73M (Q3 2013) over the preceding 4 quarters.
- The company cites higher subscription prices as a factor in its sub guidance miss.
- Total subscribers rose to 53.06M by the end of the period.
- Total contribution margin ended up at 18.0%, down 50 bps Q/Q.
- U.S. contribution margin +500 bps to 28.6%.
- Q4 sub guidance: 4.00M net additions are expected - 1.85M domestic and 2.15M international.
- NFLX shareholder letter (.pdf)
- NFLX -18.9% AH.
Sep. 16, 2014, 11:49 AM
- Netflix (NFLX -1.4%) has given an "eye-popping" two-year commitment to comedy series Love from Judd Apatow, reports Variety. CCO Ted Saranos says the new series will bring a whole new level of "agony and ecstasy" to the modern day comedy of manners.
- The company cleared a hurdled in France after telecom Bouygues announced it would integrate the streaming service into its set-top boxes this fall. Orange may follow suit.
- The third season of House of Cards is currently being filmed. The 13-episode original series is expected to debut in February of 2015.
- Shares of Netflix dipped below $450 for the first time since mid-August before recovering a bit.
Aug. 6, 2014, 8:49 AM
- Execs with Disney (NYSE:DIS) used the music from Frozen to set the stage for their comments on the company's FQ3 performance.
- Theme park attendance growth has been in the single-digits, but guest spending has been boosted by the MyMagic+ program. CFO Jay Rasulo says the program has more revenue impact to come.
- CEO Bob Iger seemed unconcerned about any revenue slowdown at ESPN. He noted advertisers are buying spots closer to the run dates and ESPN had an "extremely good" upfront.
- The company says it's very bullish on the SEC Network. There is an expectation that 60M U.S. subscribers will watch the SEC programming beginning this month.
- A question about Disney's relationship with Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) drew an enthusiastic response from Iger. No concrete numbers were thrown out, but it appears Disney will continue to benefit as Netflix grows globally. The Disney brands can be "well monetized" on the Netflix platform, notes Iger.
- Earnings call transcript
- DIS -0.5% premarket
Jul. 22, 2014, 11:24 AM
- "The launch into the six new European markets appears costlier than anticipated," writes Janney after taking in Netflix's (NFLX -4.5%) light Q3 EPS outlook. Though the company expects its U.S. streaming contribution profit to rise $18M Q/Q to $245M, its international contribution loss is expected to grow $27M to $42M.
- RBC expects Netflix's international ops to stay in "early-stage margin mode" for several years. Nonetheless, it sees the unit's margins matching U.S. levels long-term, and is reiterating an Outperform.
- Over a dozen firms have still hiked their Netflix targets in response to the company's better-than-expected subscriber adds and healthy Q3 sub forecast. Pac Crest (PT hiked by $10 to $530) notes total Q2 adds of 1.7M beat its forecast by 300K, and that lower marketing spend is offsetting higher content costs (thus driving margin expansion as revenue grows).
- Mentioned on the CC (transcript): 1) CFO David Wells suggests Netflix open to stepping up its content spend once margins hit 30%. U.S. streaming margin was at 27.1% in Q2. 2) Reed Hastings declares the impact of Netflix's price hike on sub adds to be minimal. 3) Expenses related to paid peering deals are dwarfed by content costs. 4) 10%-20% of international content tends to be local fare. 5) Netflix sees its superior TV show library as a differentiator relative to Amazon's European service (formerly called Lovefilm).
- Prior Netflix earnings coverage
Jul. 21, 2014, 4:16 PM
- Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) expects Q3 EPS of $0.89, below a $1.06 consensus.
- 570K U.S. streaming subs were added in Q2, above guidance of 520K. 1.12M international subs were added, above guidance of 940K. The U.S. and international bases respectively stood at 36.2M and 13.8M at quarter's end. The DVD base fell by 391K to 6.3M.
- Netflix expects to add 1.33M U.S. subs in Q3, and 2.36M international subs.
- Q2 free cash flow was $16M vs. $8M in Q1 and $13M a year ago. Domestic streaming contribution profit rose to $227M from $151M a year ago (margin of 27.1%), and international streaming contribution loss fell to $15M from $66M (margin of -5%).
- Streaming content obligations total $7.7B, up from $7.1B at the end of Q1 and $6.4B a year ago.
- ARPU is expected to "rise slowly" thanks to price hikes for new members. Netflix will launch in Germany, France, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, and Luxembourg in September.
- NFLX +1.6% AH. Q2 results, shareholder letter (.pdf)
Jul. 21, 2014, 4:02 PM
Jul. 16, 2014, 8:30 AM
- Shares of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) are on watch with reports filtering in that 21st Century Fox's major interest in Time Warner is the HBO business and the global streaming opportunity of the property.
- There's two schools of thought on the impact of a 21st Century Fox-owned HBO: 1) The hefty premium offered on TWX will support valuation on Netflix. 2) The gargantuan distribution network of Fox is a serious competitive threat to Netflix.
- NFLX +0.9% premarket
May. 12, 2014, 10:34 AM
- Following a public backlash, FCC chairman Tom Wheeler is backtracking a bit on rule changes (floated last month) that would allow U.S. ISPs to charge content providers for access to a priority "fast lane."
- A new draft of Wheeler's plan seeks comment on whether such arrangements, referred to as "paid prioritization," should be banned. It also states the FCC will scrutinize deals with content providers to make sure non-payers aren't at a disadvantage, prevent ISPs from doing deals with varying terms, and (notably) seek comment on whether broadband should be regulated as a public utility.
- Netflix (NFLX +3.2%), whose bandwidth spend accounts for a sizable portion of its expenses, is higher amid a broader Internet stock rally. The streaming giant has struck direct peering deals with Comcast and Verizon this year, but has also made it clear it's not thrilled with having to make them.
- Cogent (CCOI +2.2%), which provides peering services for Netflix and many others, is also higher. Its shares tumbled after the Netflix-Comcast deal was announced.
May. 1, 2014, 12:26 PM
- Yelp's Q1 report, which was accompanied by a full-year guidance hike and followed by a slew of upgrades, is helping fuel a major rally in high-beta Internet stocks that were pummeled over much of March and April.
- LinkedIn (LNKD +5.5%), which reports after the close and entered trading down 40% from a high of $257.56, is among the notable gainers. As are Twitter (TWTR +3.5%), crushed yesterday in response to its Q1 numbers and guidance, and Pandora (P +6.5%), hit hard last Friday due to the light Q2 guidance provided with a Q1 beat.
- Facebook (FB +3.5%), less damaged by the selloff than some peers, is posting solid gains as the Street gives a thumbs-up to yesterday's mobile ad network launch. "Facebook is essentially bringing the high advertising ROI and targeting precision it has perfected on its own app to the rest of the mobile web," proclaims Goldman, albeit while cautioning near-term sales will be limited.
- Netlifx (NFLX +5.5%), off 30% from its high going into trading in spite of a positive response to last week's Q1 beat and price hike announcement, is bouncing strongly.
- Other gainers: ZU +5.9%. TRLA +5.6% (rallied yesterday following earnings). PCLN +2.8%. EXPE +3.7%. MEET +4.3%. LIVE +9.9%. ANGI +3%.
Apr. 23, 2014, 9:20 AM| 9 Comments
Apr. 22, 2014, 9:14 AM
Apr. 22, 2014, 8:17 AM
- "The company is pulling the trigger on price hikes, delivering better operating leverage internationally than we expected, and meeting lofty subscriber growth expectations domestically while beating them internationally," says FBR's Barton Brockett, boosting his price target to $393 from $356, but not seeing enough upside to raise his Market Perform rating.
- Raymond James pulls its Underperform rating on the stock.
- Cantor Fitzgerald upgrades Netflix (NFLX) to a Buy with $425 price target.
- Janney's Tony Wible reiterates his Buy rating and $450 price target.
- Calling Q1 "strong," Needham's Laura Martin reiterates her Buy and $525 price target.
- Shares +7.1% premarket
- Previous earnings coverage
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Netflix Inc operates as an Internet television network providing TV shows & movies which include original series, documentaries & feature films. The Company has three segments namely Domestic streaming, International streaming & Domestic DVD.
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