Jul. 21, 2014, 4:16 PM
- Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) expects Q3 EPS of $0.89, below a $1.06 consensus.
- 570K U.S. streaming subs were added in Q2, above guidance of 520K. 1.12M international subs were added, above guidance of 940K. The U.S. and international bases respectively stood at 36.2M and 13.8M at quarter's end. The DVD base fell by 391K to 6.3M.
- Netflix expects to add 1.33M U.S. subs in Q3, and 2.36M international subs.
- Q2 free cash flow was $16M vs. $8M in Q1 and $13M a year ago. Domestic streaming contribution profit rose to $227M from $151M a year ago (margin of 27.1%), and international streaming contribution loss fell to $15M from $66M (margin of -5%).
- Streaming content obligations total $7.7B, up from $7.1B at the end of Q1 and $6.4B a year ago.
- ARPU is expected to "rise slowly" thanks to price hikes for new members. Netflix will launch in Germany, France, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, and Luxembourg in September.
- NFLX +1.6% AH. Q2 results, shareholder letter (.pdf)
Jul. 21, 2014, 4:02 PM
Jul. 16, 2014, 8:30 AM
- Shares of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) are on watch with reports filtering in that 21st Century Fox's major interest in Time Warner is the HBO business and the global streaming opportunity of the property.
- There's two schools of thought on the impact of a 21st Century Fox-owned HBO: 1) The hefty premium offered on TWX will support valuation on Netflix. 2) The gargantuan distribution network of Fox is a serious competitive threat to Netflix.
- NFLX +0.9% premarket
May. 12, 2014, 10:34 AM
- Following a public backlash, FCC chairman Tom Wheeler is backtracking a bit on rule changes (floated last month) that would allow U.S. ISPs to charge content providers for access to a priority "fast lane."
- A new draft of Wheeler's plan seeks comment on whether such arrangements, referred to as "paid prioritization," should be banned. It also states the FCC will scrutinize deals with content providers to make sure non-payers aren't at a disadvantage, prevent ISPs from doing deals with varying terms, and (notably) seek comment on whether broadband should be regulated as a public utility.
- Netflix (NFLX +3.2%), whose bandwidth spend accounts for a sizable portion of its expenses, is higher amid a broader Internet stock rally. The streaming giant has struck direct peering deals with Comcast and Verizon this year, but has also made it clear it's not thrilled with having to make them.
- Cogent (CCOI +2.2%), which provides peering services for Netflix and many others, is also higher. Its shares tumbled after the Netflix-Comcast deal was announced.
May. 1, 2014, 12:26 PM
- Yelp's Q1 report, which was accompanied by a full-year guidance hike and followed by a slew of upgrades, is helping fuel a major rally in high-beta Internet stocks that were pummeled over much of March and April.
- LinkedIn (LNKD +5.5%), which reports after the close and entered trading down 40% from a high of $257.56, is among the notable gainers. As are Twitter (TWTR +3.5%), crushed yesterday in response to its Q1 numbers and guidance, and Pandora (P +6.5%), hit hard last Friday due to the light Q2 guidance provided with a Q1 beat.
- Facebook (FB +3.5%), less damaged by the selloff than some peers, is posting solid gains as the Street gives a thumbs-up to yesterday's mobile ad network launch. "Facebook is essentially bringing the high advertising ROI and targeting precision it has perfected on its own app to the rest of the mobile web," proclaims Goldman, albeit while cautioning near-term sales will be limited.
- Netlifx (NFLX +5.5%), off 30% from its high going into trading in spite of a positive response to last week's Q1 beat and price hike announcement, is bouncing strongly.
- Other gainers: ZU +5.9%. TRLA +5.6% (rallied yesterday following earnings). PCLN +2.8%. EXPE +3.7%. MEET +4.3%. LIVE +9.9%. ANGI +3%.
Apr. 23, 2014, 9:20 AM| 9 Comments
Apr. 22, 2014, 9:14 AM
Apr. 22, 2014, 8:17 AM
- "The company is pulling the trigger on price hikes, delivering better operating leverage internationally than we expected, and meeting lofty subscriber growth expectations domestically while beating them internationally," says FBR's Barton Brockett, boosting his price target to $393 from $356, but not seeing enough upside to raise his Market Perform rating.
- Raymond James pulls its Underperform rating on the stock.
- Cantor Fitzgerald upgrades Netflix (NFLX) to a Buy with $425 price target.
- Janney's Tony Wible reiterates his Buy rating and $450 price target.
- Calling Q1 "strong," Needham's Laura Martin reiterates her Buy and $525 price target.
- Shares +7.1% premarket
- Previous earnings coverage
Apr. 21, 2014, 5:45 PM
Apr. 21, 2014, 4:15 PM
- Netflix (NFLX) expects Q2 EPS of $1.12, above a $1 consensus. The company plans to raise prices by $1-$2/month (depending on the country) later in Q2 for new members. Existing members will maintain their current prices "for a generous time period."
- 2.25M U.S. streaming subs were added in Q1, in-line with guidance. 1.75M international subs were added, beating a forecast of 1.6M. 200K DVD subs were lost, lowering the total base to 6.7M.
- Netflix ended Q1 with 35.67M U.S. streaming subs, and 12.68M international subs. It expects to add 520K and 940K U.S. and international subs in Q2, respectively.
- The company declares its international ops are "on a path to achieve profitability this year."
- Q1 free cash flow was $8M vs. $5M in Q4 and -$42M a year ago. Streaming content obligations are at $7.1B vs. $7.3B at the end of Q4 and $5.7B a year ago.
- Q1 results, shareholder letter
Mar. 24, 2014, 5:35 PM
Feb. 24, 2014, 6:41 PM
- Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) have confirmed that they, too, are talking with Netflix (NFLX +3.4%) about direct peering deals. Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam says his company's talks with the streaming giant have been going on for about a year.
- Netflix shares closed the day with strong gains, as analysts argued direct peering deals such as the one just reached with Comcast could end up having a neutral or even positive impact on Netflix's bandwidth costs, given the company will no longer have to pay intermediaries such as Cogent (CCOI -6.8%).
- Dan Rayburn: "It should actually be cheaper for Netflix to buy direct from Comcast, and they also get an SLA, which also improves quality ... While I don’t know the price Comcast is charging Netflix, I can guarantee you it’s at the fair market price for transit."
- Others aren't convinced direct peering deals are a positive. The Washington Post: "Cogent has many competitors. Verizon's FiOS service does not. If companies like Cogent are squeezed out of business, it will make these already powerful network owners even more powerful."
- GigaOm: "These agreements aren’t transparent ... rates could go up over time, and they essentially act as a tax on the Internet."
Jan. 23, 2014, 12:47 PM
Jan. 23, 2014, 9:12 AM| Comment!
Jan. 23, 2014, 9:11 AM
- Analysts are full of commentary on Netflix (NFLX) after the company ran a clean sweep of besting estimates on various metrics, but Needham might have the most interesting early analysis.
- Sizzling subscriber growth and margin momentum are just the start as the investment firm is convinced that even at Netflix's lofty trading price, investors are discounting the potential for explosive profit growth with the international business.
- There's also a reminder that the DVD business, though strategically not a factor anymore, is still a driver of free cash flow.
- Shares are rated a Buy with a price target of $425.
- NFLX +17.3% premarket to $391.60.
Jan. 22, 2014, 4:10 PM
- Netflix (NFLX) soars in the after-hours session after beating on both lines with its Q4 report and showing plenty of momentum with subscriber growth.
- The company added 2.33M subscribers in the U.S., compared to the company's guidance for a gain of 1.61M-2.41M subscribers. Analysts expected U.S. subscriber additions of around 2.05M.
- International net additions during the quarter came in at 1.74M, up 300K Q/Q and down slightly from the year-ago period.
- Streaming margin was 23.4%, just ahead of guidance of 23.2% and down 30 bps Q/Q.
- The forecast for Q1 2014 is for an addition of another 2.25M subscribers in the U.S. and 1.60M international subscribers.
- Netflix shareholder letter (.pdf)
- NFLX +13.5% to $378.80 AH
NFLX vs. ETF Alternatives
Netflix Inc operates as an Internet television network providing TV shows & movies which include original series, documentaries & feature films. The Company has three segments namely Domestic streaming, International streaming & Domestic DVD.
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