Dec. 17, 2014, 10:04 AM
Dec. 16, 2014, 3:59 PM
- Internet stocks have posted substantial losses after a morning market rally proved short-lived. The Nasdaq is down 1.2%.
- In addition to Google, which has made new 52-week lows, Facebook (FB -3%), Twitter (TWTR -4.7%), Amazon (AMZN -3.5%), and Netflix (NFLX -3.2%) are among the underperforming names. Other decliners: Z -5.5%. TRLA -5.4%. MELI -5.4%. ZNGA -4.9%. ZU -3.2%. ANGI -3.4%.
- The selloff comes even though Goldman upgraded its rating for the sector to Attractive from Neutral today. The firm noted Internet stocks are collectively down 16% over the last 12 months (maybe 18%-19% after today), and that forward EV/EBITDA multiples have contracted significantly.
- Internet/social media ETFs: FDN, PNQI, SOCL
Dec. 2, 2014, 9:00 AM
- Digital TV Research thinks Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has added close to 3M new international subscribers since the end of Q3.
- The forecast would put Netflix on a pace to easily top 17M international subscribers by the end of 2014.
- Growth for Netflix by country has been somewhat uneven with economic pressures, payment issues, and competition hitting some territories.
- NFLX +0.8% premarket to $344.50.
Nov. 25, 2014, 9:36 AM
- Citing the recent slowdown in the U.S. streaming sub growth (as shown by the company's Q3 numbers), Stifel's Scott Devitt has downgraded Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) to Hold.
- Devitt: "We view risk / reward as balanced at current prices. We also view shares as more attractive in the low-$300 range until we gain more clarity on domestic subscriber growth trajectory, all else being equal."
- He maintains a positive long-term stance on Netflix due to expectations for international success, but thinks U.S. growth concerns will remain a near-term overhang.
- Separately, Reed Hastings stated in Mexico City yesterday Netflix's Latin American ops now have ~5M subs (out of a global base of 53M), and aren't yet profitable. Hastings also admitted pirated content remains a challenge for Netflix in the region.
Oct. 16, 2014, 12:45 PM
Oct. 16, 2014, 9:13 AM
Oct. 16, 2014, 7:43 AM
- There's a widespread reset of expectations on Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) after the company delivers subscriber growth below guidance in Q3 and gets a reality check with HBO stepping into the streaming fray.
- Wedbush: Bearish-leaning analyst Michael Pachter take a victory lap over the sell-off, but also stays focused on the disparity between Netflix's net income and free cash flow. There's $448M over 9 quarters that needs to be sorted out, says Pachter.
- RBC: The long-term thesis on the streaming concern is still intact. PT clipped to $550.
- Piper Jaffray: The "priced for perfection" stock sees its price target reduced to $345 by analyst Michael Olson. Estimates on FY14 and FY EPS are chopped lower.
- Goldman Sachs: NFLX is still a Buy as the investment firm stays focused on revenue growth - instead of the subscriber guidance miss.
- Citigroup: The price target on Netflix is lowered to $365 due to a new set of expectations on growth and competition.
- NFLX earnings coverage: top and bottom lines, earnings report highlights, comments on HBO, conference call breakdown.
- NFLX -25.3% premarket to $335.15.
Oct. 15, 2014, 5:37 PM
Oct. 15, 2014, 4:26 PM
- Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) issues a statement on the move by Time Warner to offer HBO as a stand-alone service
- The company spins the move as inevitable and sensible, while predicting both streaming services will prosper as consumers move to Internet TV.
- CEO Reed Hastings has a long history of complimenting HBO, but he will be as eager as anyone to get a better view of how the new HBO streaming product will be marketed and priced.
- Shares of NFLX are down 23.4% in AH trading to $344.10 after Q3 results.
Oct. 15, 2014, 4:08 PM
- Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) reports its added 3.02M subscribers in Q3 vs. guidance of 3.69M and a recent history of 1.69M (Q2), 4.0M (Q1), 4.07M (Q4 2013), and 2.73M (Q3 2013) over the preceding 4 quarters.
- The company cites higher subscription prices as a factor in its sub guidance miss.
- Total subscribers rose to 53.06M by the end of the period.
- Total contribution margin ended up at 18.0%, down 50 bps Q/Q.
- U.S. contribution margin +500 bps to 28.6%.
- Q4 sub guidance: 4.00M net additions are expected - 1.85M domestic and 2.15M international.
- NFLX shareholder letter (.pdf)
- NFLX -18.9% AH.
Sep. 16, 2014, 11:49 AM
- Netflix (NFLX -1.4%) has given an "eye-popping" two-year commitment to comedy series Love from Judd Apatow, reports Variety. CCO Ted Saranos says the new series will bring a whole new level of "agony and ecstasy" to the modern day comedy of manners.
- The company cleared a hurdled in France after telecom Bouygues announced it would integrate the streaming service into its set-top boxes this fall. Orange may follow suit.
- The third season of House of Cards is currently being filmed. The 13-episode original series is expected to debut in February of 2015.
- Shares of Netflix dipped below $450 for the first time since mid-August before recovering a bit.
Aug. 6, 2014, 8:49 AM
- Execs with Disney (NYSE:DIS) used the music from Frozen to set the stage for their comments on the company's FQ3 performance.
- Theme park attendance growth has been in the single-digits, but guest spending has been boosted by the MyMagic+ program. CFO Jay Rasulo says the program has more revenue impact to come.
- CEO Bob Iger seemed unconcerned about any revenue slowdown at ESPN. He noted advertisers are buying spots closer to the run dates and ESPN had an "extremely good" upfront.
- The company says it's very bullish on the SEC Network. There is an expectation that 60M U.S. subscribers will watch the SEC programming beginning this month.
- A question about Disney's relationship with Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) drew an enthusiastic response from Iger. No concrete numbers were thrown out, but it appears Disney will continue to benefit as Netflix grows globally. The Disney brands can be "well monetized" on the Netflix platform, notes Iger.
- Earnings call transcript
- DIS -0.5% premarket
Jul. 22, 2014, 11:24 AM
- "The launch into the six new European markets appears costlier than anticipated," writes Janney after taking in Netflix's (NFLX -4.5%) light Q3 EPS outlook. Though the company expects its U.S. streaming contribution profit to rise $18M Q/Q to $245M, its international contribution loss is expected to grow $27M to $42M.
- RBC expects Netflix's international ops to stay in "early-stage margin mode" for several years. Nonetheless, it sees the unit's margins matching U.S. levels long-term, and is reiterating an Outperform.
- Over a dozen firms have still hiked their Netflix targets in response to the company's better-than-expected subscriber adds and healthy Q3 sub forecast. Pac Crest (PT hiked by $10 to $530) notes total Q2 adds of 1.7M beat its forecast by 300K, and that lower marketing spend is offsetting higher content costs (thus driving margin expansion as revenue grows).
- Mentioned on the CC (transcript): 1) CFO David Wells suggests Netflix open to stepping up its content spend once margins hit 30%. U.S. streaming margin was at 27.1% in Q2. 2) Reed Hastings declares the impact of Netflix's price hike on sub adds to be minimal. 3) Expenses related to paid peering deals are dwarfed by content costs. 4) 10%-20% of international content tends to be local fare. 5) Netflix sees its superior TV show library as a differentiator relative to Amazon's European service (formerly called Lovefilm).
- Prior Netflix earnings coverage
Jul. 21, 2014, 4:16 PM
- Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) expects Q3 EPS of $0.89, below a $1.06 consensus.
- 570K U.S. streaming subs were added in Q2, above guidance of 520K. 1.12M international subs were added, above guidance of 940K. The U.S. and international bases respectively stood at 36.2M and 13.8M at quarter's end. The DVD base fell by 391K to 6.3M.
- Netflix expects to add 1.33M U.S. subs in Q3, and 2.36M international subs.
- Q2 free cash flow was $16M vs. $8M in Q1 and $13M a year ago. Domestic streaming contribution profit rose to $227M from $151M a year ago (margin of 27.1%), and international streaming contribution loss fell to $15M from $66M (margin of -5%).
- Streaming content obligations total $7.7B, up from $7.1B at the end of Q1 and $6.4B a year ago.
- ARPU is expected to "rise slowly" thanks to price hikes for new members. Netflix will launch in Germany, France, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, and Luxembourg in September.
- NFLX +1.6% AH. Q2 results, shareholder letter (.pdf)
Jul. 21, 2014, 4:02 PM
Jul. 16, 2014, 8:30 AM
- Shares of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) are on watch with reports filtering in that 21st Century Fox's major interest in Time Warner is the HBO business and the global streaming opportunity of the property.
- There's two schools of thought on the impact of a 21st Century Fox-owned HBO: 1) The hefty premium offered on TWX will support valuation on Netflix. 2) The gargantuan distribution network of Fox is a serious competitive threat to Netflix.
- NFLX +0.9% premarket
NFLX vs. ETF Alternatives
Netflix Inc operates as an Internet television network providing TV shows & movies which include original series, documentaries & feature films. The Company has three segments namely Domestic streaming, International streaming & Domestic DVD.
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