Nikko Cordial Corp. (NIKOY.PK)

All Comments on NIKOY.PK

  • commenter
    SeekingAlpha
    Editors
    Apr 06 05:18 AM
    My Website
    General Discussion on NIKOY.PK
    Is this a buy or a sell? Reply
  • commenter
    Lance
    Jan 10 11:54 PM
    Nikko Cordial: Southeastern Asset Management Offers to Sell for 1900 Yen [view article]
    Oh, and let me add, I was plenty happy to give Chuck my shares last spring at 1700.

    Who pays these fools?     Reply
  • commenter
    Lance
    Jan 10 11:53 PM
    Nikko Cordial: Southeastern Asset Management Offers to Sell for 1900 Yen [view article]
    As of today, January 11, 2008, Nomura is trading at a discount to the Citi-bid-supported Nikko.

    Chuck Prince was/is a moron. I rest my case.     Reply
  • commenter
    Lance
    Apr 22 04:28 AM
    Nikko Cordial: Southeastern Asset Management Won't Sell at 1700 Yen [view article]
    What clock would that be? The hedge-fund manager performance-bonus clock? Twenty-nine percent is a far cry from 50 percent.

    And they probably won't tender, either, but this is just a noise-making repetition of what they have already said.

    Some wag once said that you should never confuse a bull market with brains.

    Again, if I was Citi I'd pay the 5 yen per share and walk, and let these fools explain to "their clients" how they fumbled a touchdown on the one-yard-line and then kicked it through the back of the end zone.

    Of course Mr. Prince could rescue them, but he also could play it smart and pick up a ton of shares below 1700 simply by pulling the rug out from under these guys who are really overplaying their hands.     Reply
  • commenter
    Lance
    Apr 14 05:32 AM
    Nikko Cordial: Southeastern Asset Management Offers to Sell for 1900 Yen [view article]
    And while SAM tries to make a market where there is none ... way above the tender, which is way above where the market would be trading the stock right now if the tender wasn't supporting it ... Harris & Associates has apparently been furiously dumping into the real market, something you would apparently never read here unless I posted it. Oops, what a difference a Friday makes, as Nikko is back trading smack on the tender price.

    Honor among thieves? Chuckle.

    Quote ... The process which led to the tender offer did not allow interested parties an opportunity to consider a bid for Nikko Cordial," said Hugh Gillespie, legal counsel for Orbis. "In the absence of an open process, we considered that we had no choice but to allow the market to assess the appropriateness of the tender offer ... end Quote.

    What an absurd claim. Anyone can make a bid on Nikko at any time. The paragraph above is simply coming from outer space. Come to think of it, "Orbis" does sound a little bit like "orbit", doesn't it? Not enough oxygen up there?

    The problem of course is Nikko Citigroup, the brokerage subsidiary that won't go away, which is 100 percent owned by the Nikko-Citigroup combination. Anyone offering to step in here as a hostile has to deal with that reality, not to mention dealing with Nikko's board, which is already on record as supporting the tender.

    The market evaluates "the appropriateness of the tender" every single day that it is open. Right now the market is saying that SAM et al are coming from left field, ridiculously trying for more than the fat windfall gains they already stand to make after the TSE made their day by deciding Nikko was "too big to fail", something that I said would happen in this space months ago.

    But the market is also saying that, the tender notwithstanding, things don't exactly look all that rosy for Japan's "Big Three" shoukengaisha right now. In fact, if Citi walks, Nikko probably trades at about 1550 the next day, maybe lower. I would not be surprised if it went limit down the first day. Then those shares offered at 1900 will look even more ridiculous than they already do.

    That 2-yen dividend this past quarter could actually price the stock at less than 1000. Yes, I agree that it's a 2000-yen stock. Someday. More than likely during the next business cycle. Time is money.

    Historically, Nikko has traded at a discount to Daiwa. Given the reverse two-for-one in 2005, lets say they trade at the same level, give or take. Daiwa closed at about 1320 yesterday. Anybody who thinks Citi is getting a good deal at 1700 in this market needs a shrink. Anybody who thinks Citi will pay more assumes that Mr. Prince is an absolute dummy, and they may be right, but for the wrong reason. Anybody who thinks a hostile bidder is coming in at a higher tender is simply wishing, not reasoning.     Reply
  • commenter
    Lance
    Apr 13 12:00 AM
    Nikko Cordial: Southeastern Asset Management Offers to Sell for 1900 Yen [view article]
    Nikko holders ... my advice is to SELL NOW. Insanely, the stock is trading fractionally above the tender price. This is a bid you should not refuse.

    Take a look at the Brokers sub index! Take a look at Nomura's price, or Daiwa's price.

    Then ask yourself if Mr. Prince is worth half of his salary.

    There is an excellent chance that Citi will walk from this tender. Well ... excellent if they have anybody with any market sense, but given Citi's stock performance over the past four years relative to ... anything ... that may be a stretch.

    At least tender. Then pray.     Reply
  • commenter
    Lance
    Apr 06 08:02 AM
    Nikko Cordial: Southeastern Asset Management Offers to Sell for 1900 Yen [view article]
    Fluid it has been. But if I were Citi, I'd pay the roughly 5 yen per share and cancel the tender. The approximately 6M shares that traded above the tender price today would be torched.

    Let's face facts here: We are going into a US earnings season that doesn't hold too much promise. Nomura has "underperformed&q... Nikko, and Daiwa has vastly underperformed Nikko, since the date before the scandal.

    Nikko is "hot" only because Citi says it's hot. If Citi walks, a lot of people have egg on their faces. If I were Citi, I'd say, "Okay, let's see what the market without a tender offer brings."     Reply
  • commenter
    BamBam
    Apr 04 11:13 AM
    Pressure on Citi to Raise Bid for Nikko Rises to New Heights [view article]
    Don't negotiate against yourself, Chuck Prince! Reply
  • commenter
    Lance
    Apr 04 06:51 AM
    Nikko Cordial: Shareholders Join Campaign Against Citigroup's Takeover Bid [view article]
    Until they get enough shares for sale at 1,900 to block the tender, it's more a display of weakness than anything else.

    We went all the way to 1,700 today, but no buyer even one yen higher. Bloomberg got the close wrong; it was 1,695 not 1,697.

    A bargaining technique? Don't make me laugh. A bargaining technique would be for the hedgies to put up a BID, not an OFFER that they know isn't going to be hit. Bid 1,725, even, if you think it's worth 1,900. I guarantee you'll get some shares, maybe enough to be more than a minority noisemaker.

    BTW, I'd be careful about advising small holders to sit tight. Citi needs only 51 percent, minus its present stake. If they get it, and it looks to me like they will, TSE concentration of ownership rules may make it necessary to delist Nikko. Irony of ironies. Then who are the small holders going to sell to, and at what price?     Reply
  • commenter
    Lance
    Mar 28 12:35 AM
    Nikko Cordial: 6.6% Shareholder Southeastern Says Citi Bid Too Low [view article]
    Mason Hawkins might note that Harris et al sold a bunch of their stake, just to "lock in" profits of, course. Why might they do that? And of course what do you think will happen to that stake that they sold? (It gets tendered, naturally.)

    Eisai is tendering. Mitsubishi Logistics is tendering.

    Maybe Mason would like to, ahem, explain, his valuation metrics?

    And put a time frame on his valuation?

    I didn't think so.

    Have fun with your stubs, Mason, and kiss your bonus down a notch.

    But then, you'll tender at the last second, won'tcha, big mouth. ^_-

    I don't see you in there bidding, say, even 1725, you pompous smoke generator.

    Lance     Reply
  • commenter
    Lance
    Mar 25 07:44 PM
    Nikko Cordial: 6.6% Shareholder Southeastern Says Citi Bid Too Low [view article]
    CSAM and Harris are playing a busted flush and blowing smoke. If Citi walks from the tender, they both lose perhaps as much as 100 million US$ in potential profit, possibly overnight, and possibly a lot more later. I'm sure they understand this, even though they apparently think that no one else does. They will tender, although they will try to disguise their play up until the moment that they make it.

    Sure, Nikko, someday, is probably a 2000 yen stock. But exactly when, and for how long? As we enter the 5th year of the bull in Tokyo, it could also be a 1200 yen stock by, say, August. The hedgies aren't stupid, we have to presume; it seems that they just enjoy sounding that way sometimes.

    Lance     Reply
  • commenter
    Steven Towns
    Mar 01 10:15 AM
    My Website
    Nikko Cordial Bouncing Around; I'm Not Selling [view article]
    Are we seeing an overzealous TSE trying to make an example out of Nikko? And how about Sanyo getting off the hook with the SESC? Reply
  • commenter
    Darrel
    Whiten
    Mar 01 03:59 AM
    My Website
    Nikko Cordial Bouncing Around; I'm Not Selling [view article]
    Regardless of what foreign investors think, I hear that the TSE was outraged by initial pressure tactics from Nikko Cordial to have the stock removed from the supervisory post, and TSE chief Taizo Nishimuro was on TV in Japan last night indicating that the TSE is not yet ready to let Nikko off the hook. Reply
  • commenter
    Gen Kanai
    Mar 01 12:39 AM
    My Website
    Nikko Cordial Bouncing Around; I'm Not Selling [view article]
    A number of people I know are outraged by the fact that a delisting is even being considered here. There would be so much investor value crushed by a delisting, when in fact only certain people were responsible for the accounting misreporting.

    The way the NYSE and the TSE handle delistings are pretty different and the TSE seems to be less investor-friendly.     Reply
  • commenter
    Lance
    Feb 28 12:10 AM
    Nikko Cordial Up 13% on Rumor Citigroup May Boost Stake [view article]
    2:20 PM, Wednesday last of February in Tokyo:

    Nikko down limit. Nihon Keizai Shimbun (now called "Nikkei") apparently validates Nikko delisting for April.

    Try to find a bid. Somewhere. Anywhere. Pink sheets???     Reply
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