Mon, May 11, 11:49 AM
- It's time to "take profits and... a summer vacation" in onshore oil services stocks such as National Oilwell Varco (NOV -2.8%), Weatherford International (WFT -2.7%), Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN -3.7%) and RPC (RES -4%), Citigroup's Scott Gruber says.
- The onshore service stocks are discounting at least 400 horizontal rigs returning to service, yet quick-to-market tight oil means supply concerns likely will manifest as soon as the rig count begins to rally, the firm says.
- Citi downgrades NOV to Sell from Neutral given risk of backlog cancellations, continued EPS compression and valuation, and believes a recovery multiple is not warranted for the stock until backlog growth resumes; the firm also cuts RPC to Sell, reiterates its Sell rating on Helmerich & Payne (HP -2%), and lowers WFT and PTEN to Neutral from Buy.
Wed, Feb. 4, 3:47 PM
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV -3.6%) is slammed by at least three analyst downgrades and multiple price target reductions, as Q4 results show a declining order book that the analysts believe will remain challenged throughout 2015.
- In cutting shares to Neutral from Accumulate with a $49 price target, down from $74, Global Hunter foresees minimal newbuild orders for both onshore and offshore rigs until oil prices have rebounded substantially and rig counts have begun to recover, which it does not expect in the next few quarters.
- Credit Suisse lowers its share price target to a Street-low $40, as guidance of ~$7B in revenue out of backlog this year against an outlook of less than $2B in orders this year and the same in 2016 points to a dramatic drop in rig systems revenues.
Tue, Feb. 3, 9:17 AM
- National Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) -2.3% premarket after posting better than expected Q4 earnings on strong growth in its wellbore technologies and productions segments, but warning of weakness this year tied to the decline in oil prices.
- "Looking into 2015 we face a very challenging market. Our customers are sharply reducing their oilfield activity and expenditures," CEO Clay Williams says.
- Sales in the rig segment, NOV's biggest, grew 7% to $2.56B, while rig-aftermarket revenue rose 12% to $850M; wellbore technologies revenue grew 12% to $1.53B, while sales in the completion and productions solutions business gained 15% to $1.33B.
- But in a clear sign of the industry downturn, the backlog for NOV's biggest division, rig systems, fell 13% Y/Y and 17% Q/Q to $12.5B; the backlog for completion and production equipment rose 9% to $1.78B.
Wed, Jan. 28, 12:33 PM
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV -4.9%) hits a 52-week low after shares are downgraded to Underperform from Neutral with a $43 price target, down from $60, at Credit Suisse, which says NOV appears to be the most negatively impacted stock by many negative data points coming through its 2-3 year outlook.
- The firm says NOV is an exceptionally well-managed company, but believes the rig systems business - 44% of estimated 2014 EBIT - will be hurt by an expected lack of new deepwater rig orders through 2016 and its exposure to slowing North American and international activity due to lower oil prices.
Mon, Jan. 5, 12:18 PM
- Energy stocks severely underperform the broader market, with the sector -4.2% vs. the S&P 500's -1.4%, as U.S. oil prices briefly slip below $50/bbl for the first time since April 2009; Nymex crude recently was -4.4% at $50.37, while Brent crude -5.9% at $53.08.
- Among the day's biggest losers: DNR -9%, RIG -7.6%, NBR -4.8%, CHK -5.9%, SDRL -9.1%, SD -12.3%, NOV -5.9%, PSX -6.2%, APA -5.9%, DVN -4.4%, EOG -6%, SU -5.2%, OXY -4.2%, APC -8.7%, PWE -9%, ECA -5.5%, MRO -5.3%.
- Global oil majors, which have been seen as less vulnerable to falling oil prices, are posting big losses: XOM -2.7%, COP -4.5%, CVX -3.8%, BP -5.8%, RDS.A -4.6%, TOT -6.5%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, PBW, BNO, GASL, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, QCLN, IEZ, UWTI, PXE, USL, PXI, FENY, DWTI, PXJ, DNO, PSCE, RYE, SZO, PUW, FXN, OLO, DDG, HECO, TWTI, OLEM
Nov. 14, 2014, 12:48 PM
- Oil services companies are mostly higher as Halliburton (HAL +1.7%) is indeed in talks to buy Baker Hughes (BHI +0.5%), a deal that would provide a jolt to oilfield services companies contending with falling oil prices: SLB +0.4%, OIS +1.2%, SPN +2.3%, CAM +0.2%, FTI -0.3%, NOV -0.6%.
- Sterne Agee analyst Stephen Gengaro calls a potential HAL-BHI combo a “HAL of a Frac-ing Deal," seeing several positives for HAL including strengthening its relatively weak position in artificial lift and production chemicals which are critical to enhancing HAL’s mature field strategy, enabling it to leverage its unparalleled U.S. pressure pumping logistics chain to enhance the efficiency of BHI’s operations, and providing the opportunity for significant cost savings which likely would total $600M-$750M or more.
- While antitrust concerns could force some divestitures, Gengaro does not believe it would prevent a deal from happening.
- Other potentially attractive M&A targets among oil services companies could include Dril-Quip (DRQ +0.7%), Frank’s International (FI +2.6%) and Oceaneering (OII -0.2%), Simmons & Co. says.
Nov. 3, 2014, 12:24 PM
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV -1.5%) is lower after shares are downgraded at both Credit Suisse and Cowen.
- Credit Suisse cites a "double whammy" of onshore and offshore market slowdowns and a lack of near-term catalysts in cutting its rating to Neutral from Outperform and its price target to $77 from $93, adding that NOV is "making the transition from a growth stock to a total return stock in a market with some near-term headwinds."
- Cowen cuts the stock to Market Perform from Outperform with a $73 target, down from $81, against a backdrop of lower global E&P spending in 2015, flat spending in 2016, and minimal offshore rig awards over the next 2-3 years; however, it believes the downside is limited, in part due to NOV's $3B share buyback program.
Oct. 30, 2014, 10:59 AM
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV -2.3%) CEO Clay Williams says he would not be surprised to see the number of active drilling rigs fall modestly in 2015 in the wake of the recent drop in oil prices.
- Williams tells analysts in today's earnings conference call that lower prices historically have not impacted activity until three or four months have passed as oil and gas producers drill out their rig contracts.
- The CEO says NOV is cautiously optimistic about 2015 but bullish on 2016, believing that even if the market faces a downturn next year, the company’s $14.3B backlog of equipment orders and its diverse products should see it through tougher times.
- NOV reported better than expected Q3 earnings, as it saw higher demand for rig equipment and wellbore technologies amid a surge of fracking activity in west Texas and elsewhere.
Oct. 17, 2014, 10:17 AM
- Oil services (OIH +4%) stocks rip higher at the open following a strong earnings report from Schlumberger (SLB +7.4%) and as oil prices stabilize.
- Tumbling crude prices haven’t shaken the faith of at least two of the top providers of drilling and production services: SLB CEO Paal Kibsgaard describes the drop as “fear of short-term oversupply” and says the company is not changing a long-term view that its earnings will almost double from last year’s level by 2017, while Baker Hughes (BHI +4.7%) CEO Martin Craighead says his company's customers don't believe crude prices will stay low.
- HAL +5.5%, SPN +5.2%, WFT +5.1%, CAM +2.1%, NOV +2%, FTI +1.8%, DRQ +1.4%.
Oct. 16, 2014, 7:55 AM
- Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) -10.8% premarket after Q3 earnings rose 10% Y/Y but missed estimates, as political tensions in Libya and Iraq plus a sharp fall in drilling activity in the Gulf of Mexico weighed on margins.
- Q3 pre-tax profit margins in its operations in Europe, Africa and the Russia Caspian region fell to 8% from 17% in the year-ago quarter.
- Revenue of the North American segment, BHI's largest geographic business by revenue, rose 11% to $3.2B, and climbed 6% in the Middle East and Asia Pacific region, 8% in the Europe, Africa and Russia Caspian segment, and 3% in Latin America.
- Oil services stocks (NYSEARCA:OIH) to watch: HAL, SLB. SPN, NOV, CAM, FTI, DRQ.
Aug. 7, 2014, 4:12 PM
- Dresser-Rand (DRC +8.6%) spiked into close following a Bloomberg report that it hired Morgan Stanley to prepare for possible takeover bids from companies including Siemens (OTCPK:SIEGY).
- While DRC isn’t actively pursuing a sale, the company is said to have retained Stanley after potential suitors expressed interest; the report says CEO Vincent Volpe Jr. may not even want a sale and is seeking defense advice from the banker.
- Siemens reportedly has been evaluating a bid for DRC since at least 2011; analysts also have mentioned GE, Cameron International (NYSE:CAM) and National Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) as potential buyers in the past.
Jul. 30, 2014, 3:59 PM
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV -1.9%) slides after Jefferies lowers its rating to Hold from Buy with a $91 price target, down from $95, saying that much of the intrinsic value is already priced into the stock.
- Jefferies cuts its 2014 EPS estimate to $5.80 from $6.45 due to expectations of weakness in deepwater activity, as it suspects "at best tepid deepwater orders through 2015 as part of the industry's review/reset of deepwater activity, which poses risk to 2016-17 revenue."
- The firm also notes that NOV is trading at 14.4x its 2014 EPS estimate and 12.9x 2015 estimate vs. a prior cycle average forward 12-month P/E of 17.2x.
Jun. 25, 2014, 12:26 PM
- Schlumberger (SLB +4.7%) surges after providing long-term profit guidance at an investor presentation today, predicting EPS growth at a compound annual growth rate of 17%-20%; in an earlier note, RBC analyst Kurt Hallead wrote that the Street was expecting the company's EPS to grow at an annualized rate of 15%.
- SLB says it can achieve $9-$10 EPS through revenue growth, margin expansion and share repurchases; Hallead had predicted SLB's EPS would reach $8 in 2016.
- Expects spending on exploration would be subdued in 2015, but expects a renewed focus on exploration in 2016-17.
- Other oil services companies also are higher: HAL +2.1%, BHI +1.9%, WFT +1.1%, NOV +1%.
Jun. 2, 2014, 9:16 AM
Jun. 2, 2014, 8:33 AM
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV) -9.5% premarket after completing the spinoff to its stockholders of its distribution business as an independent public company, NOW Inc.
- Merrill Miller Jr. steps down as NOV's Executive Chairman to hold the same position with NOW; Clay Williams is NOV's Chairman.
- NOW common stock begins trading today on the NYSE under the ticker symbol DNOW.
Apr. 28, 2014, 1:50 PM
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV -7.2%) is suffering its worst day in more than two years after reporting that Q1 orders for new offshore rig equipment fell 23% Y/Y to $2.33B and forecasting a continued slowdown in orders.
- Backlog for new rig technology equipment, which hit a record during Q1 at $16.4B, should fall to $14B-$15B by year-end, CEO Clay Williams said on today's earnings call.
- "The newbuild rig market is starting to show signs of shakiness," says Iberia Capital analyst Trey Stolz.
- Other energy equipment providers also are lower: SLB -1.1%, BHI -1.2%, CAM -1.4%, FTI -1.2%, DRQ -1.2%, FET -1%.
NOV vs. ETF Alternatives
National Oilwell Varco Inc is a provider in the design, manufacture and sale of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling, completion and production operations, and the provision of oilfield services to the upstream oil and gas industry.
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