Van Eck’s Market Vector Junior Miners ETF is set for trading to begin on Wednesday, November 11, 2009 under the ticker symbol (GDXJ). The arrival of this ETF couldn’t come at a better time as gold continues to reach new all time highs. Investors looking to get into the gold craze have found it to be worth investing in gold miners as the current Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has outperformed the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) by a substantial amount. See the chart below:

• Buffett buys Burlington for a cool $44B. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) announced it will acquire the 77.4% of Burlington Northern (BNI) it doesn't already own for $100/share in cash and stock - a 30% premium to Monday's close of $76.07. The transaction is worth $44B, including $10B in outstanding debt. Here's what Warren Buffett had to say: "Our country's future prosperity depends on its having an efficient and well-maintained rail system. Conversely, America must grow and prosper for railroads to do well. Berkshire's $34B investment in BNI is a huge bet on that company, CEO Matt Rose and his team, and the railroad industry. Most important of all, however, it's an all-in wager on the economic future of the U.S. I love these bets."
• Stocks slide; futures fall. Global stock markets painted a gloomy picture Tuesday, with bourses in Asia and Europe taking 2%-plus losses as risk appetite took a breather and investors clamored for safe-haven assets, sending the dollar and U.S. Treasurys climbing and futures tumbling (see data below in Today's Markets). "The basis for the correction seems to rest on three legs," Merrill economist Bill O'Neill said. "Worries over prospects for holders of equity in banks; concern that interest-rate hikes are imminent; and paradoxically, that recovery in 2010 will be crippled by a U.S. consumer unwilling or unable to open his or her wallet." Others took the recent downturn as a sign equity prices had gotten ahead of real improvements in the economy.
• Stanley, B&D craft $8.4B merger. Stanley Works (SWK) agreed to buy rival Black & Decker (BDK) for $4.5B in stock, the culmination of a courtship that spanned 27 years and three other attempts. The bid values B&D at about $57.57/share, a 22% premium to Monday's close. "The more we talked, the more we felt like these were two very complementary and unique companies," BDK CEO Nolan Archibald said, adding both CEOs were "totally swayed" by potential synergies of $350M. Stanley shareholders will own about 50.5% of the combined company; B&D shareholders will get 49.5%.
• Lloyds, RBS diverge on aid. Lloyds (LYG) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) unveiled agreements with the U.K. Treasury over their participation in its program to insure toxic assets, and detailed the divestments they will need to make to satisfy EU regulators. Lloyds opted out of the expensive U.K. asset-protection scheme, saying it would raise £21B, including a £13.5B rights issue; the government will maintain its 43% stake in the bank. The move subjects Lloyds to more modest EU demands: Lloyds said it will dispose of "a retail banking business" with a 4.6% market share and about 19% of its mortgage portfolio; sell £180B in noncore assets; and limit acquisitions over the next 3-4 years. RBS will enter the asset-protection scheme to insure £282B of its illiquid loans, with the first £60B in losses borne by RBS. The government will inject another £25.5B into RBS, raising its stake to 84.4%. RBS will sell its RBS retail network in England and Wales and NatWest branches in Scotland; RBS insurance; Global Merchant Services; and its stake in RBS Sempra Commodities. LYG +2.8% premarket. RBS -8%.
• Outflows continue to plague UBS. Shares of UBS (UBS) are -7% premarket after the Swiss bank said it doesn't expect client inflows to recover anytime soon due to its mangled reputation as a result of its tax dispute with the IRS. UBS posted a fourth straight quarterly loss of 564M francs (-$552M), worse than the 207M loss expected by the Street. Total client outflows rose to 36.6B francs ($35.8B), led by a doubling of outflows at its Americas wealth-management division. On a media call, CFO John Cryan cited UBS's "residual reputational issue" along with "some morale issues among advisers" that it needs to face, and said UBS expects "modest outflows from Swiss clients until we return to profit."
• EU sees gradual recovery. The EU lifted its 2010-2011 growth forecast to 0.75% and 1.5% respectively, but cautioned its outlook is "highly uncertain" given that "significant fiscal and monetary policy measures" are supporting the recovery. Predicting government deficits will swell to 7.5% of GDP, the Commission said a "protracted period of fiscal consolidation will have to follow at some stage to put public debt back on a sustainable footing."
• RBA hikes rates again. Australia's central bank, the first G-20 member to break from super-loose monetary policy, raised interest rates for the second time in two months - to 3.5% - amid a rapidly improving economic outlook. The bank hinted it may not boost rates again in December, saying the rises in October and November would work to temper inflation and ensure a sustainable upswing in the economy, which sent the Aussie dollar (ETF: EWA) lower. The central bank has never hiked rates three months in a row.
• CRE breaks death spiral. Prices of investment-grade commercial real estate rose 4.4% in Q3, according to the MIT CRE's transaction-based index, possibly signaling an end to the sector's year-long downward spiral. "One quarter does not a trend make and we are still well below normal trading volume," David Geltner, director of research at MIT/CRE, said. "Nevertheless, this is the strongest sign of a bottom that we've had in two years." The positive news comes in stark contrast to gloomy remarks from the Fed's John Greenlee, who said Monday (.pdf) that regional banks building up "unprecedented concentrations of CRE loans" will suffer the impact of worsening conditions in real estate markets, and warned, "Poor loan quality, subpar earnings, and uncertainty about future conditions raise questions about capital adequacy for some institutions."
• Hat trick of upside surprises. U.S. manufacturing activity hit its highest level in 3.5 years and pending home sales contracts unexpectedly surged, reducing fears the economy's budding recovery would falter. ISM's manufacturing index climbed 3.1 points to 55.7 (vs. 53.3 consensus) as companies began rebuilding inventories. "Overall, it appears that inventories are balanced and that manufacturing is in a sustainable recovery mode," ISM said. Pending home sales rose for the eighth straight month, the longest streak on record, with NRA's index gaining 6.1% (vs. +0.7% consensus) to 110.1. The index is now at its highest since Dec. 2006. And construction spending (.pdf) rose 0.8% (vs. -0.3% consensus) to an annual $940B, though the gain was offset by a large downward revision to August's number.
• Pensions bulge while market caps shrink. Pensions rose an average of 19% for top executives in 2008, even as their companies' stock prices fell by 37% amid a global downturn, according to an analysis of SEC filings. The growth was largely due to arcane pension formulas that have received little scrutiny.

Earnings: Tue. Before Open

• Alpha Natural Resources (ANR): Q3 EPS of $0.47 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $729M (+5.9%) in-line. Shares -0.9% premarket. (PR)
• American Tower (AMT): Q3 EPS of $0.17 in-line. Revenue of $444M (+8.5%) vs. $430M. (PR)
• AmerisourceBergen (ABC): FQ4 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $18.27B (+9.7%) vs. $18.06B. Shares +5.5% premarket. (PR)
• Archer Daniels Midland (ADM): FQ1 EPS of $0.77 beats by $0.20. Revenue of $14.9B (-29.5%) vs. $17.9B. Shares +0.1% premarket. (PR)
• Cameron International (CAM): Q3 EPS of $0.58 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $1.23B (-18.1%) in-line. Shares -0.3% premarket. (PR)
• Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH): Q3 EPS of $0.45 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $853M (+16.2%) vs. $806M. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.45 vs. $0.42 and revenue of at least $880M vs. $830M. Shares +6.9% premarket. (PR)
• Emerson Electric Company (EMR): FQ4 EPS of $0.67 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $5.32B (-20.5%) in-line. Sees 2010 revenue of $19.45-19.87B vs. $20.21B. "We are well positioned for economic recovery, but the shape and speed of the recovery remains unknown and we expect weakness to continue in the near-term." Shares -1% premarket. (PR)
• Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD): Q3 EPS of $0.27 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $1.04B (-33.7%) in-line. "There certainly were significant challenges during the latter part of this quarter as both air and ocean carriers imposed capacity reductions in order to implement very aggressive price increases. While we wouldn't call it 'The Perfect Freight Storm,' the rapidity of these carrier moves created a pricing environment that resulted in our experiencing single digit airfreight yields out of Asia during the first several weeks of September. Ocean yields were also significantly impacted." (PR)
• Frontier Communications (FTR): Q3 EPS of $0.17 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $527B (-5.6%) in-line. Shares -0.3% premarket. (PR)
• Gaylord Entertainment (GET): Q3 EPS of -$0.32 misses by $0.21. Revenue of $199M (-12.2%) vs. $202M. (PR)
• IntercontinentalExchange (ICE): Q3 EPS of $1.18 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $256M (+27.3%) in-line. Shares +0.2% premarket. (PR)
• Marathon Oil (MRO): Q3 EPS of $0.61 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $14.48B (-37.9%) vs. $13.7B. Shares +1.3% premarket. (PR)
• Marvel Entertainment (MVL): Q3 EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $106M (-42.1%) vs. $92.5M. Disney (DIS) is due to acquire Marvel by year-end. (PR)
• MasterCard (MA): Q3 EPS of $3.48 beats by $0.54. Revenue of $1.36B (+1.9%) in-line. Gross dollar volume +0.3%. Purchase volume +0.4%. Shares +3.3% premarket. (PR)
• Medco Health Solutions (MHS): Q3 EPS of $0.75 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $14.79B (+17.8%) in-line. Shares +2.5% premarket. (PR)
• Northgate Minerals (NXG): Q3 EPS of $0.03 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $120M. (PR)
• Oshkosh Truck (OSK): FQ4 EPS of $0.27 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $1.49B (-19.8%) vs. $1.4B. "We expect to be solidly profitable in fiscal 2010, led by significant revenue growth in our defense business, which should more than offset anticipated low demand at our construction-related businesses." Shares +3.8% premarket. (PR)
• Petroquest Energy (PQ): Q3 EPS of $0.07 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $50.3M (-35.8%) vs. $52.2M. Shares -6.5% premarket. (PR)
• Polo Ralph Lauren (RL): FQ2 EPS of $1.75 beats by $0.44. Revenue of $1.37B (-3.8%) vs. $1.31B. "We are raising our sales expectations for the remainder of the year, but we continue to be cautious with our outlook and are planning accordingly." Shares +2.7% premarket. (PR)
• Rockwell Collins (COL): FQ4 EPS of $0.84 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $1.19B (-7%) in-line. Shares -2.7% premarket. (PR)
• Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL): Q3 EPS of $1.07 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $1.8B (-14.5%) in-line. Sees "a slight loss" in Q4 vs. consensus of +$0.04. "Like many other travel companies, we saw more strength than we expected during our peak season but have been experiencing more pricing pressure on some of our traditionally softer fall season sailings." Shares -3.2% premarket. (PR)
• St. Joe Company (JOE): Q3 EPS of -$0.08 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $43.2M (+30.1%) vs. $28.9M. (PR)
• Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA): Q3 EPS of $0.89 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $3.55B (-7.6%) vs. $3.63B. Shares -2% premarket. (PR)
• Viacom (VIA): Q3 EPS of $0.69 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $3.32B (-2.7%) in-line. Shares +0.7% premarket. (PR)
• Vornado (VNO): Q3 FFO of $1.25 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $671M (-0.7%) vs. $637M. Shares -0.5% premarket. (PR)

Earnings: Mon. After Close

• Anadarko (APC): Q3 EPS ex-items of $0.40 may not compare to estimate of -$0.33. Gains that may affect comparability, including reversed accrual and unrealized derivatives loss, of $0.51/share. Revenue of $2.7B (-55%) vs. $2B. Shares +0.7% AH. (PR)
• Avis Budget Group (CAR): Q3 EPS of $0.54 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $1.5B (-14%) vs. $1.6B. Shares +6.5% AH. (PR)
• Axis Capital (AXS): Q3 EPS of $1.05 beats by $0.33. Revenue of $452M (-29%) vs. $581M. (PR)
• Chesapeake Energy (CHK): Q3 EPS of $0.70 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $1.8B (-76%) vs. $2B. Shares -1.1% AH. (PR)
• Forest Oil (FST): Q3 EPS of $0.48 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $177M (-50%) vs. $252M. Shares -1.8% AH. (PR)
• Hecla Mining (HL): Q3 EPS of $0.09 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $95.2M (+39%) vs. $68.7M. Shares +2.4% premarket. (PR)
• Kinross Gold (KGC): Q3 EPS of $0.00 misses by $0.12. Revenue of $582M (+16%) vs. $578M. Shares +0.4% AH. (PR)
• MannKind (MNKD): Q3 EPS of -$0.42 beats by $0.06, on no revenues. "While we continue to be fully engaged in the task of navigating our NDA through the FDA review process, we are continuing to run additional studies of AFRESA." Shares +4.5% AH. (PR)
• Republic Services (RSG): Q3 EPS of $0.32 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $2.07B (+149%) in-line. Sees full-year EPS of $1.46-1.48 vs. $1.46. Shares -0.2% AH. (PR)
• Principal Financial Group (PFG): Q3 EPS of $0.74 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $2.3B (-9%) vs. $2.5B. Shares +2.4% AH. (PR)
• St. Mary Land (SM): Q3 EPS of $0.23 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $186M (-43%) vs. $187M. (PR)

Today's Markets

China was the lone gainer on an otherwise dismal Tuesday in Asia. Europe shares are getting pummeled. Stock futures are under severe pressure. Treasurys and the dollar are up strongly.

This has been more noticeable in much more popular industries, such as financial services, oil service, etc. as much of the money that flew the market during the most recent crash was mainly a combination of forced liquidation by hedge funds and other various investment institutions. The selling of individual equity ETF positions in turn caused a lot of selling or downward price pressure.

Precious metals are making news again. A combination of factors have pushed metals into the spotlight – especially gold. India’s wedding season is approaching along with hopes for a holiday buying spree. More important, fear of a falling dollar has caused the yellow metal to climb the charts yet again.

With gold consolidating in the 900’s for the past few months, we think the yellow metal has a strong chance of staying near the $1,000 barrier. Last week it broke above its June highs and is fast approaching the March 2008 all-time highs. That rally was sharp and almost unmitigated by corrections. This time, the gains have been steady with ample consolidation.

Heralded as "the best of today's best," Gold Stock Analyst author and publisher John Doody's Top 10 portfolio is up 61% through the end of July. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Doody talks about misperceptions about a summer slump, his Market Cap metric, and select producers or near producers he thinks are well positioned to thrive in the current environment.

The Gold Report: John, gold didn't hit its traditional summer slump, so what are we expecting gold to do here for the second half of the year?

• UBS tax talks stall. Talks to settle a tax dispute with UBS (UBS) have stalled once again as the U.S. and Swiss governments try to find a legal middle ground allowing the transfer of some client data to U.S. authorities. The two countries, which have until August 12 to reach a deal, have agreed in principle on the major issues but the technical details, and in particular the data transfer timeline, are still not finalized. The Swiss government is holding a special session today in light of the stalled negotiations.
• Publicis catches a fish. Publicis (PUBGY.PK) will buy Microsoft's (MSFT) ad agency Razorfish in a cash-stock deal worth $530M, roughly 1.5 times Razorfish's 2008 sale of $380M. Publicis is already the leader in digital advertising, which is one of the few ad sectors that has continued to grow during the recession, and Razorfish is number two in the sector. The purchase is part of a broader deal in which Publicis will buy display and search ads from Microsoft at attractive terms in exchange for minimum guaranteed purchases.
• Resolution raises bid for Friends. Buyout group Resolution improved its offer for life insurer Friends Provident (FRDPY.PK) for the second time, prompting Friends to enter into discussions with Resolution "with a view to recommending its proposal." The revised offer values Friends at £1.86B ($3.1B), a 12% premium to Friends' Friday close.
• China alleges Rio deceit. Rio Tinto (RTP) shares were down 3.2% premarket (7:00 ET) after allegations from China that Rio spied on its steel industry for six years, costing China $102B in excess iron ore costs. However, the author of the document linking Rio to the excess steel charges said the article is his own opinion, not the government's, and that it's based on previously published data. Confusion over the source and severity of the Rio allegations further weakens China’s shaky credibility on issues like this.
• Geithner wants debt leeway. On Friday, Geithner formally requested that Congress raise the $12.1T statutory debt limit, warning it must be increased so that "citizens and investors here and around the world can remain confident that the United States will always meet its obligations." Geithner said the existing limit could be breached as soon as mid-October if no action is taken, as the Treasury is expected to issue up to $2T of debt in FY '09 and up to $1.6T of debt in FY' 10.
• No synergy for Dynegy. Along with quarterly earnings (see details below), Dynegy (DYN) announced it will sell nine power plants to one-time partner LS Power Associates, a closely-held power generation company. LS Power will pay over $1B for the assets and return nearly $500M in shares to Dynegy, effectively unwinding a 2006 joint venture meant to create the largest U.S. developer of coal-fired power plants. LS Power will also give up its three seats on Dynegy's board and agree not to increase its Dynegy holdings beyond the 15% stake it will be left with after the transaction.
• Friday's failures. Three more banks were closed on Friday, bringing this year's failures to 72. The failures, including two in Florida and one in Oregon, are estimated to cost the FDIC $185M. (Read the FDIC's press releases I, II, III)

Earnings: Monday Before Open

• DISH Network Corp. (DISH): Q2 EPS of $0.14 vs. consensus of $0.67 (may not be comparable). Revenue of $2.9B (-0.4%) in-line. Added ~26K net subscribers in Q2 for a total of 13.61M. (PR)
• Dynegy (DYN): Q2 EPS of -$0.41 vs. consensus of -$0.04 (may not be comparable). Revenue of $493M (+53%) vs. $612M. (PR)
• Holly (HOC): Q2 EPS of $0.29 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1B (-40.5%) vs. $1.1B. (PR)
• Northgate Minerals (NXG): Q2 EPS of $0.02 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $130M vs. $139M in the same quarter last year because of a large drop in realized copper prices. (PR)
• Perfect World (PWRD): Q2 EPS of $0.72 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $76M (+56.5%) vs. $73M. (PR)
• Quicksilver Resources (KWK): Q2 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $206M (+4%) vs. $194M. (PR)

Earnings: Friday After Close

• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A): Q2 EPS of $1,147 misses by $91.38. Operating earnings of $1.78B (-22%). (PR)
• Freddie Mac (FRE): Q2 EPS of -$0.11. Loss due to dividend payment on $1.1B of senior preferred stock to Treasury. Positive net worth of $8.2B; no additional funding required from Treasury purchase agreement. Net income of $768M vs. one analyst's estimate of $771M. (PR)
• NATCO Group (NTG): Q2 EPS of $0.32 misses by $0.10. Revenue of $156M (-3%) vs. $159M. (PR)

Today's Markets

• In Asia, Nikkei +1.1% to 10,524. Hang Seng +2.7% to 20,930. Shanghai -0.3% to 3,250. BSE -1% to 15,010.
• In Europe at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.8%.
• Futures: Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.4%. Crude -0.4% to $70.67. Gold -0.3% to $956.50.

Monday's Economic Calendar

• 10:00 Conference Board's Employment Trends
• Notable earnings before Monday's open: ALD, DISH, DYN, HOC, KWK, NXG, PCLN, PWRD, SYY
• Notable earnings after Monday's close: FLR, FRPT, HRP, MDR, MTXX, NUAN, QSFT, TWTC

Seeking Alpha editor Eli Hoffmann contributed to this post.

Thanks for all the positive feedback on the post about the Newgold (NGD)- Western Goldfield (WGW) merger and the possbility of a U.S. Gold (UXG)- Rubicon Minerals (RBY) deal. Many have asked what other gold mining companies I own. Here’s the current list: Yamana Gold (AUY), Banro Corp. (BAA), Claude Resources (CGR), Golden Star Resources (GSS), NovaGold Resources (NG) New Gold Inc. (NGD), Northgate Minerals (NXG), Rubicon Minerals (RBY), Western Goldfields (WGW), U.S.Goldcorp (UXG).

Today I want to take a closer look at Northgate Minerals (Amex:NXG), a gold and copper miner operating in Canada and Australia. Northgate exhibits strong momentum both fundamentally and technically.

Click here to view the spreadsheet containing all disclosures for my complete equity portfolio, including initial entry points, YTD returns, total returns, etc.

• Enlightened-American Portfolio: +5.2% YTD (including dividends)
• DJIA: -13.3%
• Nasdaq: -3.1%
• S&P 500: -11.7%
• DJ WIlshire 5000: -8.9%
• Russell 2000 (smallcap): -15.4%

The stock market enjoyed a strong rally in March and while I gained a few percentage points as well, I lagged the broader indices on the month. I’m comfortable with that fact as YTD returns are still favorable. Also, I am positive on the positioning of my portfolio (for the most part) due to its cash flow generation as well as my outlook on markets going forward (more on that later).

Click here to view the spreadsheet containing all disclosures for my complete equity portfolio, including initial entry points, YTD returns, total returns, etc.

• Enlightened-American Portfolio: +2.1% YTD (including dividends)
• DJIA: -19.5%
• Nasdaq: -12.6%
• S&P 500: -18.6%
• DJ WIlshire 5000: -17.8%
• Russell 2000 (smallcap): -22.1%

Again this month, my posted portfolio shows higher returns than my actual portfolio. My real-money portfolio was down -1%, due to different weightings in the actual positions than the equal-weight formula I use for the public spreadsheet.

Safe haven demand and a lack of investment alternatives continues to help gold break from its traditional trading relationships, rising despite a strong U.S. dollar and weak crude oil prices. In fact, analysts at Genuity Capital noted that gold is more than $200 per ounce above its normal value relative to the greenback.

Meanwhile, sustained investor interest in gold throughout 2008 helped push dollar demand for bullion to $102-billion, a 29% annual increase, according to World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends. The organization also said identifiable investment demand for gold, which incorporates exchange traded funds (ETFs), bars and coins, rose 64% last year. This is equivalent to an additional inflow of $15-billion.

Metal prices may have seen across-the-board declines in the fourth quarter, but gold held up the best. Bullion saw an 8% quarter-over-quarter decline, but silver, copper and zinc fell 32%, 48% and 32%, respectively.

The declining price for gold impacts a wide range of names but companies that will feel the earnings pinch include copper producers Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY), Northgate Minerals Corp. (NXG), Goldcorp Inc. (GG) and Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), according to Credit Suisse analyst Anita Soni.

Heralded as “the best of today’s best,” John Doody, author and publisher of the highly regarded Gold Stock Analyst newsletter, brings a unique perspective to gold stock analysis. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Doody ponders the efficacy of the Keynesian approach, makes a case for gold equities and explains how the GSA Top 10 Stocks portfolio has outperformed every other gold investment vehicle since 1994.

The Gold Report: John, you've stated in your newsletter, Gold Stock Analyst: “It’s clear the U.S. is going down a Keynesian approach to get out of this recession/depression." I am curious on your viewpoint. Will the Keynesian approach actually work, or will they need to eventually move over to the Chicago School of Free Markets?

At the end of each week, our market direction radar scans the Hillbent 3000 universe (minimum average daily volume of 100k and largest 3000 market capitalization stocks) for the top 3 and bottom 3 sectors based upon aggregate performance and analyzes their winners and losers.

Using this weekly sector report on a regular basis allows Hillbent.com’s readers to efficiently monitor sector rotations and investor sentiment biases.

The price of gold is showing signs of stability after gold stocks got crushed in the commodity sell-off early this fall. However, we are clearly not in the $1000-plus gold price environment many had anticipated under these dire economic conditions, nor have traditional multiples returned, says Credit Suisse analyst Anita Soni.

Apart from a brief period earlier this year, when gold hit an all-time high above $1030 an ounce, the yellow metal has not performed true to course. The first quarter advance proved to be a bubble with large-scale institutional speculators driving the price sharply higher... and then sharply lower over the next seven months, according to Jeffrey Nichols, managing director at American Precious Metals Advisors.

Beware to those who ignore historical market cylicality. I made two late-cycle investments in stocks heavily associated with copper and am paying for it now. While I hardly bought in at the top, being early doesn’t feel much different from being wrong. Unlike my previous blow-up with American Capital (ACAS), I do not believe the future prospects for Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) or Northgate Minerals (NXG) are permanently impaired. With enough patience, metals prices will recover and hopefully, share prices with them.

Before delving into the companies, I’d like to bring this quote to readers’ attentions. From NXG’s Q3 release regarding the copper market situation, it is especially pertinent to Freeport’s current dilemma:

Deletions are expected to far outweigh additions, when the S&P/TSX Composite Index is rebalanced in December, says Scotia Capital analyst Darwin McGrath.

Mr. McGrath told clients that Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Ltd. (RBA) is the lone candidate poised to jump onto the country main Index, while more than 20 companies are expected to be kicked out.

Click here to view the spreadsheet containing all disclosures for my complete equity portfolio, including initial entry points, YTD returns, total returns, etc.

THE ENLIGHTENED-AMERICAN PORTFOLIO SPREADSHEET

The third quarter earnings season kicks off Wednesday for large-cap gold companies, and Credit Suisse analyst Anita Soni suggests the stocks are now "poised to disappoint" in a difficult market environment.

"We expect earnings, production or cost misses will be viewed unforgivingly in the current environment of extreme aversion to operational risk," she wrote in a note to clients.

In the past couple of weeks, analysts started to make drastic cuts to their targets for base metal companies to account for tumbling commodity prices and a larger-than-expected economic downturn. Scotia Capital analyst David Christie has taken the next step, and cut gold and silver companies as well.

The problem for precious metal companies is that they often produce base metals like copper and molybdenum as byproducts in their mines. So while they are not hit as hard as the base metal companies themselves by the lower prices, they still take a hit.

Blackmont Capital has reduced its copper forecast, sending price targets lower on Canada's gold giants. 

Precious minerals analyst Richard Gray told clients in a note that Blackmont has lowered its copper price forecast to $3 per pound for the fourth quarter of 2008 from $3.65. The research firm also now expects $3 copper until 2012. Blackmont's previous estimates were for $4 copper in 2010 and $3.50 copper in 2011.