Thu, Mar. 26, 10:50 AM
- The Philadelphia Semi Index (SOXX -1.8%) is now down 6% over the last two days. Today's losses come after NAND flash giant SanDisk issued a Q1 warning and withdrew its full-year guidance - price pressure, soft enterprise sales, and delayed product qualifications were all blamed.
- Meanwhile, some are partly blaming yesterday's big selloff on cautious remarks from TSMC (has an estimated ~50% global foundry share) at a Credit Suisse conference. CS analyst Randy Abrams reports TSMC (NYSE:TSM) has observed "a slowdown in the past 4-5 weeks due to US$ strength impacting European and emerging market purchasing power," and that inventories "will be a few days above seasonal exiting 1Q15." Pac Crest downgraded TSMC two weeks ago on inventory concerns.
- Following an Asian trip, Susquehanna's Chris Caso has argued there isn't too much to be alarmed about, though he admits forex could be an issue. "There’s mixed signals here and there. We weren’t picking up anything that was tremendously different across the supply chain. PCs were the weakest area. That’s really not a surprise."
- RF chipmakers Skyworks (SWKS -4.6%) and Qorvo (QRVO -2.1%), among 2014's best performers, are again selling off; peer Avago is off only slightly. Also seeing further profit-taking are Ambarella (AMBA -3%), NXP (NXPI -3.6%), Freescale (FSL -2.8%), Cavium (CAVM -3.2%), and STMicroelectronics (STM -4.5%).
- Among equipment makers, Axcelis (ACLS -2.9%), Aixtron (AIXG -3.6%), Veeco (VECO -3%), and Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC -2.5%) are declining. A selloff in European equities could be affecting Aixtron, NXP/Freescale, and STMicro.
- Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
- Update: Credit Suisse, Goldman, and Deutsche have each offered thoughts on the chip selloff.
Wed, Mar. 25, 12:03 PM
- Chip stocks are particularly hard-hit (SOXX -3.6%) on a rough day for tech. The Nasdaq is down 1.3%, and the S&P 0.7%. Going into today, good earnings reports and ongoing M&A activity had led the Philadelphia Semi Index to rise 10% from its Jan. 30 close; the index remains up nearly 2x from its fall 2012 lows.
- AMD (AMD -7.2%) is a major decliner following a UBS downgrade. AMD rival/GPU giant Nvidia (NVDA -5.2%) and memory giant Micron (MU -3.7%) are also selling off, as are merger partners NXP (NXPI -3.8%) and Freescale (FSL -3.4%), RF chipmakers Avago (AVGO -5.2%), Skyworks (SWKS -5.3%), and Qorvo (QRVO -7.1%), LED/RF chipmaker Cree (CREE -4.1%), and high-flying video processor developer Ambarella (AMBA -4.3%).
- Other decliners include telecom chipmakers/ARM server CPU vendors Cavium (CAVM -4.8%) and AppliedMicro (AMCC -4.4%), microcontroller vendors Atmel (ATML -3.5%), Cypress (CY -5.5%), and STMicroelectronics (STM -3.5%), voice processor developer Audience (ADNC -3.7%), analog/mixed-signal chipmakers Linear (LLTC -3.7%), Maxim (MXIM -3%), and Intersil (ISIL -3.5%), FPGA maker Lattice (LSCC -3.9%), and mixed-signal/wireless charging IC developer IDT (IDTI -5.4%).
- Chip equipment, IP, and foundry providers are also underperforming. Big decliners include ARM (ARMH -4.4%), KLA-Tencor (KLAC -4.2%), Lam Research (LRCX -5.4%), ASML (ASML -4.1%), TowerJazz (TSEM -4.3%), Mattson (MTSN -4.5%), Ultratech (UTEK -4.7%), and Tessera (TSRA -6.1%). ASML has been downgraded to Hold by Banco Santander.
- TSMC (TSM -4.6%) is among the decliners in spite of a Digitimes report stating the foundry giant's sales are expected to rise 0%-5% Q/Q in Q2 - consensus is for a 2% drop - with strong Apple A8 CPU orders offsetting soft Qualcomm Snapdragon 810 orders.
- Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
Fri, Mar. 13, 10:22 AM
- Declaring NXP's (NASDAQ:NXPI) $16.7B cash/stock merger with Freescale (NYSE:FSL) will create "a powerhouse in the semiconductor industry," Needham's Rajvindra Gill has launched coverage on NXP with a Strong Buy rating and $140 target.
- Gill notes NXP/Freescale will be the world's biggest automotive chip and microcontroller supplier (as previously noted by the companies), with respective shares of 13% and 15%. He adds the post-merger company will be a top player in the growing mobile payments and IoT chip markets.
- NXP/Freescale are expected to see 2016 EPS of $7.44, and 2017 EPS of $9.00. $2.3B/year in free cash flow is considered possible.
- Also: BofA/Merrill's Vivek Arya is out with a bullish note: He thinks 2018 EPS of $8.40 is possible, with 10%-47% upside via cost synergies, lower interest expenses (as Freescale's high-interest debt gets refinanced), lower taxes, and potential buybacks as the company deleverages.
- Arya observes Chinese regulatory approval remains a hurdle, and that NXP/Freescale's combined 90%+ base station power amplifier share is a concern, but also notes NXP plans to divest its base station amplifier ops, and has plenty of Chinese experience (previous).
- Both NXP and Freescale have surged to new highs.
Mon, Mar. 2, 12:49 PM
Mon, Mar. 2, 9:15 AM
Sun, Mar. 1, 9:56 PM
- Shortly after Reuters reported a deal was close, NXP (NASDAQ:NXPI) has announced it's buying Freescale (NYSE:FSL) for $6.25/share in cash and 0.35 NXP shares for each Freescale share owned.
- Based on NXP's Friday's close, the deal has a value of $36.14/share, nearly even with Freescale's Friday close. It has an equity value of $11.8B, and an enterprise value of $16.7B after factoring Freescale's net debt.
- Freescale shareholders will own 32% of the post-merger company. NXP will pay for the deal with $1B in cash on hand, $1B in new debt, and 115M shares. It's expected to close in 2H15.
- The companies predict $200M/year in cost savings in the first year after closing, and $500M/year eventually. They assert the post-merger company will be "the market leader in automotive semiconductor solutions and the market leader in general-purpose microcontroller (MCU) products." NXP promises the acquisition will be accretive to both EPS and free cash flow.
Sun, Mar. 1, 7:45 PM
- NXP (NASDAQ:NXPI) is close to buying fellow microcontroller vendor Freescale (NYSE:FSL) for a slight premium to Freescale's current ($11.1B) market cap, two sources tell Reuters. The deal would be the biggest in the chip industry's 18-month-long consolidation wave, creating a company with a ~$32B valuation (~$40B after debt) and expected 2015 sales of $12.2B.
- Two weeks ago, Freescale's shares jumper on reports it's exploring a sale; they've more than doubled from their October lows. In addition to making NXP a top player in the fragmented microcontroller market, acquiring Freescale would give NXP sizable network processor, analog/sensor IC, and RF power amplifier businesses.
- Freescale's network processor and amplifier ops have strong 4G base station exposure, while its microcontroller business depends heavily on auto and industrial sales. The company has relatively little consumer hardware exposure.
- Freescale currently trades for 17x 2015E EPS, and is expected by the Street to post 5% 2015 revenue growth. NXP trades for 15x 2015E EPS, and is expected to post 11% revenue growth. If recent deals are any sign, the companies will argue a merger can deliver major cost synergies.
- Update: NXP and Freescale have officially announced the deal.
Fri, Feb. 6, 2:09 PM
- Susquehanna has hiked its NXP (NASDAQ:NXPI) target by $12 to $95 following the chipmaker's Q4 beat and mostly above-consensus Q1 guidance. Canaccord has hiked its target by $2 to $97. Shares have more than recovered yesterday's post-earnings losses.
- On the Q4 CC (transcript), CEO Richard Clemmer noted that while NXP's Portable & Computing sales (+46% in 2014) have benefited from "company-specific design wins in the high-end smartphone and tablet market" (read: Apple), the "broad-based portion of the business" is also outperforming. Industrial/infrastructure sales (+21%) have received a lift from base station power amplifier share gains, and ID/security sales (+13%) have benefited from smart government document and EMV payment card growth.
Tue, Jan. 27, 6:01 PM
- Apple suppliers Cirrus Logic (NASDAQ:CRUS), NXP (NASDAQ:NXPI), Skyworks (NASDAQ:SWKS), Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO), and Avago (NASDAQ:AVGO) are up AH after the tech giant blew away FQ1 estimates on the back of 74.5M iPhone sales (+46% Y/Y and above forecasts of ~66-67M). iPad sales of 21.4M (-18%) were roughly in-line
- CRUS +2.9% to $26.79. NXPI +1.5% to $79.20. SWKS +1.3% to $82.60. QRVO +1% to $74.48. AVGO +2.7% to $107.60.
- Cirrus and Qorvo report tomorrow, and NXP on Feb. 4. Skyworks posted an FQ1 beat and offered strong guidance last week.
Mon, Jan. 26, 11:04 AM
- NXP (NXPI -1.4%) is lower in response to cautious remarks from OTR Global about the company's position in Samsung's Galaxy S6 (expected to be unveiled in early March).
- Much as it does for the iPhone 6, NXP supplies an NFC controller/secure element for the Galaxy S5. However, NFC Times reported last October Samsung is using an internally-developed NFC chip for the Note 4.
- With the help of Apple's orders, NXP's Secure Connected Device sales (includes NFC chips) rose 60% Y/Y in Q3 to $301M (~1/5 of total revenue). Q4 results arrive on Feb. 4.
Thu, Jan. 8, 4:18 PM
- Hit hard on Tuesday amid a market rout, chip stocks have more than made up for it today: The Philadelphia Semi Index (SOXX +3%) handily exceeded the Nasdaq's 1.8% gain. The index posted a 1% gain yesterday.
- Micron (MU +4.9%) has been one of the standouts, more than recouping yesterday's post-earnings losses. Ditto Freescale (FSL +9.2%), which benefited from a Deutsche target hike, and Marvell, which got a lift from an MKM note. Others: NVDA +3.8%. NXPI +4.7%. AVGO +5%. SWKS +4.5%. CY +6.1%. CODE +5.9%. CAVM +5.2%. SWKS +4.5%. SLAB +4.5%. KLIC +3.8%. SMTC +3.6%. ATML +3.7%. FCS +4.2%. TSEM +4.2%.
- As is their custom, both chipmakers and their clients have been unveiling plenty of new products at CES.
- ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
Nov. 26, 2014, 5:37 PM
Oct. 31, 2014, 11:31 AM
- Three weeks after providing a calendar Q3 warning that triggered a massive chip stock rout, Microchip (MCHP +7.3%) has provided Q4 guidance that's in-line with lowered estimates. The microcontroller vendor, which has often seen trends emerge ahead of peers, also said it saw most of its inventory correction in Q3, and expects Q4 sales to be just "slightly below typical seasonal levels."
- Chip stocks are up strongly (SOXX +4%) on a day the Nasdaq is up 1.4%. Since Microchip's warning, a slew of analog chipmakers and microcontroller firms (e.g. Atmel, Freescale, STMicro, Intersil, Linear) have offered light Q4 guidance, and other firms have reported seeing high-end Android weakness (e.g. Synaptics, Cirrus Logic, Amkor).
- On the other hand, several mobile chipmakers (Skyworks, RF Micro, TriQuint, Silicon Motion), some of which have decent iPhone exposure, have provided strong results and/or guidance. Other chipmakers, such as Broadcom, Texas Instruments, and Xilinx, have rallied after delivering in-line guidance.
- Susquehanna's Chris Caso: "By now, we think it’s clear that the weakness MCHP saw in September is not company specific ... The question now is if the full extent of the weakness has been dialed into estimates. If it has, then this would be among the shortest and mildest downturns in many years."
- Notable gainers: SNDK +3.9%. MU +4.1%. AMAT +3.9%. TXN +4.7%. NXPI +3.9%. NVDA +3.5%. MXIM +4.7%. LLTC +5.1%. FCS +9.6%. FSL +8.8%. ADI +6.5%. TQNT +6.8%. RFMD +6.5%. ATML +5.9%. AVGO +5.1%. MRVL +4.7%. AMCC +8.9%. BRCM +3.6%. TSM +4.4%. ARMH +3.3%.
- Intel (INTC +3.5%) has recovered most of the losses it saw yesterday due to Intesil's (ISIL +3.3%) results and guidance, and related comments about a PC chip inventory correction.
- Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
Oct. 23, 2014, 12:40 PM
- NXP (NASDAQ:NXPI) expects Q4 revenue of $1.485B-$1.545B and EPS of $1.26-$1.36. Consensus is at $1.49B and $1.28.
- The chipmaker says its outlook "points to a slightly better than seasonal trend as company specific product cycles continue to ramp against a backdrop of a slightly less optimistic overall semiconductor market." Shares were clobbered on Oct. 10 thanks to Microchip's warning, but had since recovered a majority of their losses.
- With the help of M8 motion co-processor shipments to Apple, Q3 Secure Interfaces & Power sales rose 40% Y/Y to $298M. NFC chip sales to Apple contributed to a 60% increase in Secure Connected Devices sales to $301M. Automotive sales +10% to $288M; Secure Identification (includes RFID and EMV chips) -3% to $252M. Standard Products +14% to $333M.
- $574M was spent on buybacks, providing a boost to EPS. Gross margin was 47.9% vs. 48.6% in Q2 and 46.8% a year ago; Q4 GM guidance is at 47%-48%. Opex rose 1% Y/Y to $407M.
- Q3 results, PR
Oct. 20, 2014, 5:21 PM
- iPhone suppliers are trading higher after Apple beat FQ4 estimates and issued FQ1 guidance that was mostly above consensus. FQ4 iPhone sales of 39.3M were better than expected, and iPad sales of 12.3M worse than expected.
- Cirrus Logic (NASDAQ:CRUS) +1.4% AH. Avago (NASDAQ:AVGO) +1.2%. Skyworks (NASDAQ:SWKS) +1.2%. RF Micro (NASDAQ:RFMD) +2.4%. NXP (NASDAQ:NXPI) +2%.
Oct. 14, 2014, 2:47 PM
- Qualcomm (QCOM +2.4%), NXP (NXPI +5.8%), Synaptics (SYNA +3.1%), and Himax (HIMX +3.5%) are among the mobile chipmakers outperforming after Skyworks hiked its calendar Q3 guidance.
- Like Skyworks, Qualcomm, NXP, and (via the Renesas SP deal) Synaptics are iPhone suppliers. Recent reports have pointed to strong iPhone 6 build activity and Chinese pre-orders.
- Like many other chipmakers, the group sold off after Microchip (has relatively low mobile exposure, but a diversified customer base otherwise) issued a calendar Q3 warning, and stated it believes an industry correction has begun. Intel reports after the close.
NXPI vs. ETF Alternatives
NXP Semiconductors NV is a semiconductor company providing High Performance Mixed Signal & Standard Product solutions. Its solutions are used for automotive, identification, wireless infrastructure, industrial, mobile, consumer & computing applications.
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