BARCLAYS BANK PLC (OIL)

All Comments on OIL

  • commenter
    User 143167
    Sep 02 11:14 PM
    My Website
    Is the Bull Run in Commodities Over? [view article]
    If people are right about global recession which will send oil price below $80, the DOW will be below 8000 too.

    Without a major growth in oil outputs, Oil down and DOW up is beyond any logics.     Reply
  • commenter
    Realsit
    Sep 02 10:39 PM
    Megaprojects Predict Decline of Oil Production [view article]
    My favorite author....another good one to put things into a realistic perspective. Reply
  • commenter
    Realsit
    Sep 02 09:37 PM
    Is the Bull Run in Commodities Over? [view article]
    Weekly TA,
    Comparing oil, food, metals, and other commodities to things like comic books, beanie babies, tulip mania, the south sea shipping co., etc is fundamentally wrong. Last time I checked, a beanie baby and comic books were not essential to our economy and life. Nice try.     Reply
  • commenter
    starkoski
    Sep 02 08:47 PM
    Megaprojects Predict Decline of Oil Production [view article]
    Very good article - we are really at the peak now due to nat gas condensates in decline already. Our society is not prepared for this and get ready for the big problem to come. Reply
  • commenter
    Matt
    Blackman
    Sep 02 08:21 PM
    My Website
    Commodity Price Movements in the Short Run and Long Run [view article]
    Now that was a complete waste of time... Reply
  • commenter
    surgcare
    Sep 02 08:17 PM
    Megaprojects Predict Decline of Oil Production [view article]
    Although tortuous ,its a very good article .The only thing I believe you seemed to leave out was or is the cost of drilling oil in diminishing returns . Another words the huge amounts of water and technology needed to bring oil out of the ground once you reach peak capacity . This is really quite simple to me . Once you need to pump water into oil holes in order to bring oil to market , by definition should be peak oil . Simnce 90 % of wells producing oil today require water to produce oil , this alone strongly suggest we're at or past peak oil . Those who completely disregard peak oil do so on the assumption that the Saudi's can produce oil at will , which your article completely bebunks .Unfortunately we are overwhlemed with "knuckleheads " who think we have un-limited oil and therefore nothing will get done until its too late . Reply
  • commenter
    WeeklyTA
    Sep 02 08:02 PM
    My Website
    Is the Bull Run in Commodities Over? [view article]
    oh yea, and that whole CROX craze Reply
  • commenter
    WeeklyTA
    Sep 02 08:01 PM
    My Website
    Is the Bull Run in Commodities Over? [view article]
    epeon - every asset class or market experiences bubbles. Human nature is all the same. Tech was not the only bubble in history, recall the tulip mania, south sea, mississippi co., Florida land, comic books, beanie babies, etc...Commodities are no different. Reply
  • commenter
    Alan von
    Altendorf
    Sep 02 07:44 PM
    My Website
    Megaprojects Predict Decline of Oil Production [view article]
    Thank you, Jim. Too optimistic, not enough war risk, and it takes at face value some pretty dubious reserves estimates, especially Brazil. Very much appreciate your concise, well written SA presentations. Reply
  • commenter
    Realsit
    Sep 02 07:37 PM
    Is the Bull Run in Commodities Over? [view article]
    XOM is down because they are not investing much in oil exploration, spending their money on share buy-backs instead. In the last quarter, all of the Western oil majors, including Exxon Mobil, said their oil output had declined by a total of 614,000 barrels a day, even as they posted $44 billion in profits. It was the steepest of five consecutive quarters of declines. The Western oil majors have been and are being squeezed out of areas like Russia and Venezuela by the NOC's. The Western majors now only account for something like 7% of the world's oil reserves. It's a fact that fifty-four of the 65 oil-producing nations have entered irreversible production declines. The oil industry, too, is suffering from shortages of equipment and engineers. Even worse, all of the countries best equipped to pump more of the stuff are members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). And we know they are keenly aware of the price drop and don't want another price collapse like in years past. We have been on a plateau in oil production since mid 2004. The easy, high-yield oil has been expended. These are all cold, hard facts. Obviously a slow down in the world economy will lower price temporarily, but unless you expect the entire world oil consumption to continue shrinking indefinitely, prices will rebound at some point. The market will find the fair price for oil. Is world population shrinking? Some 80,000,000 more people are added to the world population every year. In North America alone, each individual consumes food annually that takes an average of 400 gallons of petroleum to produce. Is the 3,000 mile cesar salad still here? Yes it is. Are we all starting to live like the Amish with horse-drawn buggies? No. The best way to try and preserve our car society is to improve gas efficiency like the Europeans have done. Are the fundamentals behind commodities still firmly rooted? Yes. Reply
  • commenter
    DonSuper
    Sep 02 06:42 PM
    Megaprojects Predict Decline of Oil Production [view article]
    very interesting article...

    I made a statistical model based on production and price changes from the previous year (with the assumption that changes in price one year were signals that more production was needed)...and there does seem to be a very strong statistical correlation. The only anomalies found were on the embargo years, where I got 3.5+ sigma...and this year (almost 4 sigma)...therefore signaling almost 99% certainty we are arriving at peak oil...     Reply
  • commenter
    icandoitdon
    Sep 02 05:41 PM
    Is the Bull Run in Commodities Over? [view article]
    for those who think they get it, consider the following:

    commody stocks having "solid revenues and earnings" has utterly nothing to do with price bubbles in the underlying commodity. at today's levels, about 20% off the may peak, oil is still nearly double the price of last year while XOM is down almost 10%. if the market believed peak oil prices were sustainable, XOM would not be down 10% and selling at under10x trailing earnings....it is selling at 10x trailing earnings precisely because the market believes those are peak earnings, not sustainable in a softening world economy.

    oil is just one example of commodity stocks that have historically sold at modest p/e's because they're cyclical businesses. such businesses do not and should not command premium multiples. neither will they strongly correlate with the underlying price of the commodity, which is extremely volatile.

    the bubble in technology is not remotely comparable to the bubble in world oil prices. oil has known supply/demand characteristics. high prices create demand destruction, which we're now seeing...china and india notwithstanding. oil prices will always revert to an equilibrium price based on supply/demand fundamentals. but that doesn't mean that bubbles can't periodically surface any more than it means that price can't periodically collapse. both have happened in the past and both will happen in the future. we've seen a quadrupling of oil prices in the last 4 years or so, which is historically unusual (i.e. a bubble) but not unprecedented. those who believe that the days of $40 oil "are gone forever" are simply ignorant of both markets and history. that includes general motors, goldman sachs, boone pickens, and others with short memories.

    epeon's comment that commodity prices are "still historically high" despite a slowing world economy speaks for itself. look for further declines if the world economy continues to weaken.




    Reply
  • commenter
    Realsit
    Sep 02 03:56 PM
    Is the Bull Run in Commodities Over? [view article]
    Out of all these posts, why is it that epeon is the only one that gets it? Reply
  • commenter
    buyforeclosu
    res
    Sep 02 02:32 PM
    What the Russian-Georgian War Means for the Euro [view article]
    Dollar will go to 130 Euro...Oil to $90

    not sure when but it will happen at some point

    the writing is on the wall     Reply
  • commenter
    buyforeclosu
    res
    Sep 02 02:28 PM
    What the Russian-Georgian War Means for the Euro [view article]
    "The recent strength in the USD is not USD strength per se, but Euro weakness. The fear is that Europe will be involved in a war with Russia"...

    Are you insane? Europe and Russia war? LOFL

    and you get to write of SA?

    Man I won't ever coem to an SA posting again     Reply
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