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Monday, March 4, 11:15 AM WTI crude (USO -1.4%) slips below $90/barrel for the first time this year with a renewed policy hawkishness out of Beijing as good an excuse as any for the last few weeks' slide. Check out the correlation between oil and the China A Share ETF (CAF) since the start of February. Comment! [Commodities, On the Move]
Wednesday, February 20, 2:18 PM Nymex crude oil futures have plunged ~2.5%, as a large block of trades fueled rumors that a commodity fund was forced to liquidate. But it doesn’t take a conspiracy theory to see why oil prices are taking a hit: U.S. supplies are rising and will continue to do so while shipments on the Seaway pipeline run below the daily capacity of 400K barrels. Plus, in a market filled with speculators, a correction is in order. 1 Comment [Energy, Commodities]
Tuesday, January 8, 2:42 PM The world’s oil market should eventually see a glut of crude oil and a fall in prices given non-OPEC growth in production, especially from unconventional and deepwater North American sources, and steady demand growth, Global Hunter says. As for natural gas, the overabundance in supplies has led to a "severe cratering of prices on the one hand, but has set in motion a variety of longer-term demand drivers on the other." Comment! [Energy, Global & FX]
Tuesday, January 8, 8:59 AM Deutsche Bank (DB) slashes its forecast for WTI crude by 10% to $90/barrel, with the key being increased supply from U.S. shale production. Toss in minimal OPEC production curbs and slowish economies, and "implied inventory builds ... could be sizable." 1 Comment [Commodities]
Monday, January 7, 4:31 PM The price gap between the WTI and Brent crude oil benchmarks closes at its narrowest in more than three months. The spread has shrunk by 6.4% YTD, much of it on news from Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Enbridge (ENB) that 400K bbl/day of oil will begin to flow through their Seaway Pipeline by the end of this week, and some traders expect the expansion will continue to narrow the gap. Comment! [Energy, Commodities]
Friday, January 4, 4:49 PM If Hugo Chavez dies, oil markets could rally in the short-term "given the instability it would cause, especially as Venezuela is a key oil exporter,” but the long-term move would be slight since the country's oil industry has deteriorated under Chavez, Schneider Electric's Matt Smith says. Venezuela produces ~2.2M bbl/day of crude vs. ~3.5M when Chavez took over in 1999. 4 Comments [Energy, Global & FX]
Monday, December 17, 2012, 4:56 PM Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) says it and partner Enbridge (ENB) will expand the Seaway pipeline, a 150K bbl/day line that was reversed earlier this year to ship crude from Cushing, Okla., to Houston, to run 400K bbl/day as of next month, and a further expansion to 850K bbl/day is planned for Q1 2014. The move is credited with helping narrow the discount of U.S. crude to Brent by $1 today. Comment! [Energy]
Friday, December 14, 2012, 11:57 AM With WTI and Brent detached, plans are afoot for a new, medium sour crude contract in China. What’s more, the proposals would allow foreign investors to trade in commodities markets without a local subsidiary for the first time. But deep reforms in China's tightly controlled oil import and refining sectors would be needed to lure the world's top producers, traders, refiners and investors. Comment! [Energy, Commodities, Global & FX]
Thursday, December 13, 2012, 5:38 PM Whether crude costs $60 or $120/bbl., the U.S. is almost free of depending on imported energy and positioned to supplant Saudi Arabia as the world’s top producer of oil, Citi's Ed Morse says. While U.S. producers break even with prices of $72-$75/bbl. and will keep drilling new shale wells at $60 because they’ve already hedged future output, the Saudis face different challenges. 1 Comment [Energy, U.S. Economy, Global & FX]
Wednesday, December 12, 2012, 12:45 PM OPEC announced it would maintain oil production at 30M bbl/day, but do its quotas even matter any more? Capital Economics' Julian Jessop thinks not: "While it may be in the interests of the group as a whole to cap output and support prices, each individual member has an obvious incentive to sell as much oil as possible." Plus, as non-OPEC supply increases, compliance is likely to weaken further. 7 Comments [Energy, Global & FX]
Wednesday, December 12, 2012, 7:43 AM As expected, OPEC has left its oil output ceiling at 30M bpd at its meeting in Vienna today, although it's unclear whether the cartel will do anything to address the fact that it's producing well above that figure. Despite the swift agreement on output, the cartel is still wrangling over who should replace Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri, who is due to retire in around two weeks. Oil +0.1%. Comment! [Energy]
Wednesday, December 12, 2012, 4:42 AM The International Energy Agency increases its forecast for 2013 worldwide oil demand by 110K bpd to 90.5M, saying it expects growth to "stay relatively sluggish" due to "tepid global economic expansion." In its monthly report, the IEA also raises its production forecast by 70K bpd to 54.2M bpd, with the U.S. shale revolution driving growth. Comment! [Energy]
Tuesday, December 11, 2012, 2:15 PM Although there is deadlock over who should be OPEC's new secretary general, the cartel's members - even Iran - are in agreement that oil prices are roughly where they want them. OPEC projects demand for its crude in H1 2013 at 29.25M bbl/day, implying a 1.5M bbl/day stockbuild during that period vs. November's output of 30.8M bbl/day and a possible upcoming drop in prices. Comment! [Energy, Global & FX]
Thursday, December 6, 2012, 7:43 AM WTI crude (USO) slips further in relevance with the Energy Department dropping the use of the benchmark for its annual oil price forecast. Brent crude (BNO) - now selling for $21/barrel more - will be used instead. "WTI has become a misleading price indicator for global economic growth," says researcher Gordon Kwan. Comment! [Commodities]
Wednesday, December 5, 2012, 3:43 AM U.S. crude-oil production +16% Y/Y in September to almost 6.5M bpd, the highest in nearly 15 years, the EIA said yesterday. The states with the big increases were unsurprisingly Texas, with its Eagle Ford formation, and North Dakota, which is at the center of the Bakken Shale region. The fracking revolution has helped output in the latter state surge to 720K bpd. (PR) Comment! [Energy]
Thursday, November 29, 2012, 10:12 AM Egypt's political crisis heralds a new phase of instability in the Middle East that will keep worries about area oil supplies intact and put upward pressure on prices, commodities analysts say. ANZ's Nick Trevethan expects higher oil prices in the first few months of next year partly due to political risk, adding that Jan. 22 parliamentary elections in Israel also would be watched closely by energy markets. 1 Comment [Energy, Commodities, Global & FX]

OLO PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long ETN

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PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long ETN