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Friday, June 29, 2012, 2:12 PM Gold and oil both soar, with gold settling above the key $1,600/oz. psychological mark and crude oil up 7.7% with settlement less than an hour away. But one group of traders is very wrong: Either the European financial crisis is fixed - as energy prices rise on an anticipated increase in demand - or it isn't - as gold prices rise as investors seek a safe haven. 21 Comments [Commodities, On the Move]
Friday, June 29, 2012, 7:16 AM Asset correlations seemingly near 1 (or -1) the last few years mean we can have higher stock prices or lower oil prices, but not both. WTI crude rockets higher alongside stocks and stock futures this morning, +3.6% to $80.50. Comment! [Commodities, On the Move]
Wednesday, June 27, 2012, 10:35 AM The Norwegian oil workers' strike has shut down 240K bbl/day, or 15%, of the country's oil production, and 11.9 mmcf/day, or 7%, of its natural gas output, a significant cut which could push oil prices higher. The strike has affected Statoil (STO) the most; the Norwegian company shut down four new installations and says it is losing ~$25M/day. 2 Comments [Energy]
Tuesday, June 26, 2012, 9:53 AM "Has peak oil peaked," asks Liam Denning in the sort of article you see after crude has declined 25% in less than 2 months. Oil producers (and consumers) over the coming years are set to harvest the benefits of a decade of investment spurred by years of high prices, argues former oil exec Leonard Maugeri. 14 Comments [Commodities, Energy]
Sunday, June 24, 2012, 3:22 PM 22.7% of daily oil and 22.9% of daily natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has now been shut-in in anticipation of Tropical Storm Debby, up from 7.8% and 8.2% yesterday. The Gulf accounts for 20% of U.S. oil production and 6% of natural gas output. 6 Comments [Energy]
Thursday, June 21, 2012, 2:58 PM As headline commodities like oil (OIL -3.5%) sell off and natural gas (UNG +2.3%) marches to its own drummer (supply), the ratio of oil to nat gas has reversed big-time. If the consensus view pans out that the U.S. economy will outperform the rest of the world, the ratio likely would continue to fall, and the desire to switch everything to cheaper natural gas no longer seems like such a no-brainer. Comment! [Commodities, Quick Ideas]
Thursday, June 21, 2012, 7:59 AM Oil adds to yesterday's big decline, briefly falling below $80/barrel, now -0.9% to $80.72. While lower oil is helpful to the consumer, Mark Hanna would like to see strength in crude as well as industrial names like CAT to confirm the recent bullish action in the broader equity markets. 3 Comments [Commodities]
Wednesday, June 20, 2012, 11:12 AM Gold and oil don't seem to expect much from the FOMC today, the metal -1.2% and WTI crude -1.8%. Crude added to already solid losses on the release of storage data showing an unexpected build in inventories. 13 Comments [Commodities, On the Move]
Thursday, June 14, 2012, 11:35 AM OPEC reportedly agrees to keep its output quota unchanged at 30M bbl/day and that "member countries would, if necessary, take steps (including voluntary downward adjustments of output) to ensure market balance and reasonable price levels." OPEC's actual production in recent weeks has been closer to 31M-32M bbl/day. WTI +0.7% to $83.25/bbl. Comment! [Breaking News, Energy, Commodities, Global & FX]
Thursday, June 14, 2012, 11:13 AM Starting up new capacity at a refinery sometimes leads to shutdowns, but early reports of the severity of the mechanical failure at the huge Motiva refinery (RDS.A, RDS.B) indicate the breakdown might be especially burdensome, taking months to repair. Several refinery stocks rise: WNR +3.3%, VLO +1.7%, COP +0.4%, TSO +0.3%. 7 Comments [Energy, On the Move]
Thursday, June 14, 2012, 3:28 AM Oil rises modestly from an 8-month low ahead of an OPEC meeting today where members will likely maintain their output ceiling, despite some sharply divergent views expressed in recent days. Crude futures +0.2% to $82.77. Comment! [Commodities]
Wednesday, June 13, 2012, 8:46 AM The global oil market looks "better supplied" than earlier this year thanks to a ramp up in OPEC production, but not oversupplied given the potential impact of sanctions on Iranian oil that raise the risk of a tighter market from the summer onward, the IEA says. Iran could be forced in the next month or two to start shutting in 500K-700K bbl/day of its oil production, IEA's David Fyfe says. 1 Comment [Energy, Commodities, Global & FX]
Wednesday, June 13, 2012, 4:40 AM The eurozone crisis helped oil prices shave off around 20% from their 2012 highs as the supply/demand ratio narrowed, according to the latest IEA report. The slump accelerated in May, with downward pressure also stemming from a slowdown in China and excess supply from some big producers. Crude futures +0.1% to $83.42. 1 Comment [Commodities]
Tuesday, June 12, 2012, 4:42 PM Oil doesn’t belong at $83 and won’t stay there for long, MBF's Mark Fisher believes: “Either it goes back to $100 or it drops to $65, but we’re not staying here." Oil's decline largely has been orchestrated by Saudi Arabia, he says, adding that "historically, the first move oil makes out of the OPEC [meeting] is the wrong move"; the bigger move will be in the other direction. 5 Comments [Commodities, Quick Ideas]
Tuesday, June 12, 2012, 8:27 AM With OPEC is already pumping oil at levels not seen since 2008, Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali Naimi says his country won't ask OPEC to increase production at this week's meeting, apparently contradicting his remarks yesterday. 1 Comment [Energy, Commodities, Global & FX]
Tuesday, June 12, 2012, 8:11 AM Sinopec (SNP) has turned down offers of bargain Iranian crude and will cut imports by up to a fifth this year, Reuters reports, as China sees ties with the U.S. as more important than cut-price oil as the West squeezes Iran over its nuclear program. With just 20 days to go until sanctions effectively cut off tanker insurance, Asian buyers of Iranian crude are still scrambling for ways to keep the oil flowing. Comment! [Global & FX, Commodities]

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PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long ETN