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Mon, Dec. 1, 10:41 AM
- Oil, gold, and silver reverse panicky overnight action which saw crude drop below $64 per barrel and gold below $1,150 per ounce.
- WTI crude (NYSEARCA:USO) is now up 1.8% at $67.34 and gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) is higher by 1.9% to $1,198. As low at $14.16 per ounce earlier, silver (NYSEARCA:SLV) is ahead 4.6% to $16.27.
- ETFs: USO, AGQ, OIL, USLV, UCO, ZSL, SCO, UGL, DGP, GLL, BNO, UGLD, DTO, DZZ, DBO, DSLV, CRUD, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, UWTI, USL, DWTI, DBE, DNO, RJN, USV, UBG, SZO, BAR, OLO, BARS, JJE, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, UBN
Fri, Nov. 28, 12:52 PM
- "OPEC, like Rockefeller, ultimately damned itself," writes Wolfe Research's Paul Sankey. He doesn't see oil demand ratcheting upwards because of the drop in oil prices; instead, he says, the market will only clear at the point of U.S. supply growth destruction.
- This could take months and a price of around $50 per barrel ... "And then we squeeze radically higher. As a result, the world accelerates its move away from oil."
- "This is going to be volatile, and we can't understand how that helps the Saudis. Volatility sells Teslas."
- WTI crude (NYSEARCA:USO) tried bouncing earlier, but is now lower by 8.5% at $67.43 per barrel. The Energy Select SPDR (XLE -6.6%) is also set to close today's shortened session on the lows.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, DIG, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, CRUD, IEZ, UWTI, PXE, USL, FENY, PXJ, DWTI, DBE, DNO, PSCE, RJN, RYE, SZO, FXN, OLO, JJE, DDG, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Wed, Nov. 12, 11:30 AM
- In its annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA forecasts global energy demand will increase 37% by 2040, but "the short-term picture of a well-supplied oil market should not disguise the challenges that lie ahead as reliance grows on a relatively small number of producers."
- Crude production from U.S. shale oil fields is seen continuing to rise until the early 2020s but will then begin start to decline; replicating shale oil extraction outside of North America will prove difficult, as other new sources of oil supply are in expensive, complex and politically fraught locations, the IEA says.
- Investment of $900B/year in upstream oil and gas development is needed by the 2030s to meet projected demand, according to the report.
- Falling oil prices may cut investment in U.S. shale oil by 10% next year; in the Canadian oil sands - among the most expensive oil deposits in the world to exploit - an investment slowdown already is evident, and the IEA estimates ~25% of projects are at risk as prices fall.
- ETFs: UNG, USO, OIL, DGAZ, UGAZ, UCO, BOIL, SCO, GAZ, BNO, DTO, DBO, KOLD, UNL, CRUD, NAGS, USL, UWTI, DBE, DNO, DWTI, RJN, DCNG, SZO, OLO, JJE, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Tue, Sep. 30, 12:07 PM
- The early decline in WTI crude oil has accelerated sharply over the past few minutes, and it's now off 3.5% to $91.25 per barrel, about inline with the lowest pricing seen this year. USO -2.9%
- Moving alongside is heating oil (UHN -1.1%) and gasoline (UGA -3.1%).
- Broad energy ETFs: DBE, RJN, JJE, ONG, RGRE, UBN
- Checking other commodities: Silver (NYSEARCA:SLV) is down 3.4%, Copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) is lower by 1.3%, and Wheat (NYSEARCA:WEAT) is off 1.8%.
- Broad commodity ETFs: DBC, DJP, GSG, RJI, GCC, USCI, GSC, GSP, RGRC, DJCI, LSC, FTGC, DEE, UCI, DYY, CMD, BCM, DDP, UCD, CMDT, SBV, DPU, CSCB, CSCR
Mon, Sep. 22, 2:58 PM
- Commodity prices as measured by the Total Return Bloomberg Commodities Index reaches new five-year lows, hit by a strengthening dollar, the prospect of a record grain harvest in the U.S. and concerns over weakening economic growth in China.
- The index has dropped more than 12% since the end of June amid falling prices for commodities such as crude oil, soybeans and gold.
- Even industrial metals, one of this year’s best performers in commodities, have started to come under pressure; nickel has dropped 10% since the end of June, copper prices are at three-month lows, and iron ore trades below $80/ton for the first time since 2009.
- ETFs: USO, AGQ, OIL, DBA, CORN, USLV, UCO, ZSL, UGL, SCO, DGP, GLL, JJC, RJA, JJG, UGLD, BNO, WEAT, DZZ, DTO, SOYB, DBO, DSLV, DGL, CRUD, DBS, DAG, DGZ, JJA, DGLD, USL, GRU, DBE, UWTI, JJN, DNO, DWTI, RJN, USV, RGRA, AGA, UBG, AGF, CPER, SZO, BAR, FUD, USAG, OLO, UAG, WEET, DIRT, JJE, BARS, TAGS, NINI, CUPM, ONG, RGRE, ADZ, OLEM, UBN
Tue, Sep. 16, 7:27 PM
- A new study finds that it's not the actual process of fracking that can cause water pollution; the bigger problem is faulty well construction.
- The real concern, according to an analysis published yesterday by the peer-reviewed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, are leaks in the steel-and-cement casings surrounding the well bore, which let gas escape before it gets to the surface, making water undrinkable and in some cases explosive.
- "Where contamination occurs, it related strictly to well integrity," says a co-author of the study, who adds, "The answer is not to stop drilling. The fix is better executions on the construction of the well and improving well integrity."
- The study is fueling calls for stricter standards for well construction that could increase costs for energy companies.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, GASX, PXE, PXJ, DBE, FENY, RJN, RYE, FXN, JJE, DDG, ONG, RGRE, UBN
Wed, Sep. 10, 3:28 PM
- Energy stocks, especially refiners, are taking a beating following the latest EIA inventory report that said gasoline stockpiles rose by 2.4M barrels last week, helping send U.S. crude oil futures to 16-month lows (-1.2% to $91.61/bbl) and Brent crude to 17-month lows (-1.1% to $98.02).
- The report is bearish given the large increases in refined product inventories; "even though the crude drawdown was close to expectations, it seemed to disappoint," Again Capital's John Kilduff says.
- The EIA report followed the agency’s updated demand growth report issued yesterday and this morning’s release of OPEC’s report on the oil market; both see lower demand growth this year and next.
- Oil majors are mostly lower: XOM -0.6%, CVX -1.4%, COP -0.3%, but BP (+2.9%) and RDS.A (+1%) are higher.
- Refiners are hit hard: VLO -3.6%, PSX -1.5%, MPC -1.9%, HFC -2.5%, TSO -2.9%, WNR -4.1%, CVI -1.6%, ALJ -1.8%, PBF -3.5%, DK -1.8%, CLMT -1.8%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, XOP, DIG, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, IEO, CRUD, PXE, USL, PXI, PXJ, DBE, FENY, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, RJN, RYE, FXN, SZO, OLO, JJE, DDG, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Mon, Sep. 8, 12:32 PM
- The day's five biggest decliners in the S&P 500 are all energy companies - Newfield Exploration (NFX -5.6%), EOG Resources (EOG -3.6%), Anadarko Petroleum (APC -2.9%), Cimarex Energy (XEC -3.3%) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD -3.4%) - as crude oil prices slide to new lows, including Brent crude's first move below $100/bbl in more than a year.
- Brent crude dropped $1.12, or 1.1%, to $99.70/bbl after falling to as low as $99.36, a 16-month low, while U.S. crude slipped more than a percent to below $92 after settling at $93.29 on Friday for its sixth weekly drop in seven.
- Traders are concerned crude demand won't keep up, with data from the U.S. and China, the world's top oil consumers, suggesting their economies aren't growing as quickly as had been hoped.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, XOP, BNO, DTO, DBO, IEO, CRUD, PXE, USL, DBE, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, RJN, SZO, OLO, JJE, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, UBN
Sat, Jul. 5, 8:25 AM
- The U.S. became the world’s largest natural gas producer four years ago, and now it is the world's top producer of crude oil, surpassing all other countries with output exceeding 11M bbl/day in Q1, according to a new report issued today by Bank of America.
- Partly as a result of the shale boom, West Texas futures are at a ~$7/bbl discount to their Brent European counterpart, but it hasn’t made the expected impact on pump prices: “Typically such a large energy supply growth should bring prices lower, but in fact we’re not seeing that because the whole geopolitical situation outside the U.S. is dreadful," says BofA’s head of commodities research.
- Drivers on the road for the Fourth of July weekend are facing the highest gasoline prices since 2008, despite the fact that U.S. oil production is its highest since 1986 and gasoline is well supplied across the country.
- ETFs: UNG, USO, OIL, DGAZ, UGAZ, UCO, BOIL, SCO, GAZ, UGA, BNO, DTO, DBO, KOLD, UNL, CRUD, NAGS, USL, DBE, UWTI, RJN, DNO, DWTI, SZO, DCNG, OLO, JJE, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Mon, Jun. 16, 10:48 AM
- The U.S. recorded its largest-ever annual rise in oil production for a second year in a row with a 13.5% increase to 10M-plus bbl/day, and U.S. oil consumption outstripped China for the first time since 1999 as it reaped the benefits of the shale boom, according to BP's annual world energy review.
- Oil prices are at their most stable since the early 1970s, the review says, as the huge U.S. output increase offsets disruptions to supply from places such as Libya.
- Coal was the world's fastest growing fossil fuel, with 3% growth last year driven by developing nations; coal’s share of global energy use reached 30.1%, just below the 32.9% for crude oil, which lost market share for a 14th consecutive year.
- Natural gas consumption rose 1.4%, below the 2.6% historical average, to account for 23.7% of world primary energy use; gas demand growth was below average everywhere but North America.
- ETFs: UNG, USO, OIL, DGAZ, UGAZ, UCO, KOL, BOIL, SCO, GAZ, DTO, BNO, DBO, KOLD, UNL, CRUD, NAGS, USL, DBE, UWTI, RJN, DWTI, DNO, SZO, DCNG, OLO, JJE, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, UBN
Tue, May. 27, 2:30 PM
- The utility sector is among the day's best performers after the annual capacity auction at PJM Interconnection, which runs the largest U.S. power grid, forecasts payments to electricity producers will jump to $120/MW-day vs. $59.37 in the previous 12-month period and expectations of $75-$100.
- The higher capacity price is a boon to power producers, which rely on the payments as baseline revenues; the auction results are viewed as another endorsement of natural gas.
- The outlook is particularly favorable for Exelon (EXC +3.9%) and FirstEnergy (FE +6%), according to S&P's Aneesh Prabhu; PPL Corp. (PPL +2.9%) also benefits, especially considering that the price in its region was expected to fall.
- The price for Public Service Electric & Gas' (PEG -0.2%) utility territory in northern New Jersey was set at $215/MW-day, down from $219 a year earlier.
- ETFs: XLU, IDU, VPU, DBE, RJN, UPW, FUTY, RYU, PUI, FXU, JJE, SDP, ONG, RGRE, UBN
Tue, May. 13, 9:48 AM
- In the most explicit statement yet from the Obama administration, Energy Secretary Moniz says the U.S. is considering relaxing regulations that ban the export of crude oil.
- The issue of crude oil exports is under consideration because of growing domestic production of oil that isn't for refining locally, Moniz said at an energy conference in Seoul, adding that a study of the subject, including multiple agencies, is now taking place.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, DBE, DNO, UWTI, RJN, DWTI, SZO, OLO, JJE, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Wed, Jan. 15, 11:15 AM
- The U.S. will be able to provide for all its own energy needs by 2035 as output of shale oil and gas accelerates and demand growth slows, BP says in its annual energy forecast.
- "Out from literally nowhere a few years ago," tight oil output globally will account for 7% of liquids production by 2035, with other regions led by Russia and South America joining the U.S. boom, a projection at odds with some other forecasts that success in exploiting shale oil is unlikely to be replicated outside the U.S.
- World energy demand will rise 41% by 2035 from 2012, a slower pace than the 52% gain in the last two decades, according to the report, with 95% of demand growth coming from emerging economies and more than half the increase coming from China and India.
- Oil, gas and coal will each account for ~27% of global demand by 2035, the first time there's no single dominant fuel in the energy mix.
- ETFs: DBE, RJN, JJE, ONG, RGRE, UBN
Tue, Jan. 7, 5:01 AM
- South Sudan's government has finally begun delayed talks with rebel negotiators in an attempt to end over three weeks of fighting that has left more than 1,000 people dead and caused 200,000 to flee their homes.
- Meanwhile, Sudan and South Sudan, which is the third-largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa, have spoken about forming a joint force to guard the latter's crude fields from rebels. The discussions follow fighting in two oil-rich states, Unity and Upper Nile. (Previous)
- Oil ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, DBO, DTO, BNO, CRUD, USL, DBE, RJN, DNO, SZO, OILZ, UWTI, DWTI, OLO, JJE, RGRE, ONG, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Wed, Jan. 1, 5:23 AM
- South Sudan's government and rebels were due to start ceasefire talks in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa today in an attempt to end over two weeks of ethnic bloodletting that has left more than 1,000 people dead and displaced at least 180,000.
- The discussions will come after rebels regained the key city of Bor, the capital of Jonglei state, which has untapped oil reserves. The fighting has cut crude output in South Sudan, which has the third-largest reserves in sub-Saharan Africa.
- The rebels are led by Vice President Riech Makar, who was sacked by President Salva Kiir in the summer. The latter is from the Dinkas group and Makar is from the Nuer, with some but not all of the dispute split along those ethnic lines.
- Oil ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, DBO, DTO, BNO, CRUD, USL, DBE, RJN, DNO, SZO, OILZ, UWTI, DWTI, OLO, UOIL, JJE, RGRE, ONG, DOIL, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Dec. 27, 2013, 10:19 AM
- Airline stocks dip in early trading after a government report shows U.S. crude oil supplies stayed in a downward trend. Violence in the South Sudan has also been a recent factor in oil prices.
- Besides the prospect for higher prices for aviation fuel, the airline sector was ripe to blow off a little steam after rallying before and after the merger of American Airlines and U.S. Airways, note analysts.
- Decliners: United Continental (UAL) -3.2%, Delta Air Lines (DAL) -2.6%, Spirit Airlines (SAVE) -2.4%, JetBlue (JBLU) -1.5%, American Airlines (AAL) -1.5%, Southwest Airlines (LUV) -1.3%.
- Related Oil ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, DBO, DTO, CRUD, USL, DBE, UHN, RJN, DNO, SZO, OILZ, UWTI, DWTI, OLO, JJE, RGRE, ONG, OLEM, TWTI, UBN.
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