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Pandora Media

6/18/2013, 3:10 AM ET

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Thursday, June 13, 2:12 PM Global mobile ad sales will grow 79% in 2013 to $15.8B, and Google (GOOG) will account for $8.85B (56%) of them on the back of 92% growth, estimates eMarketer. Facebook's (FB) mobile ad sales are seen rising over 4x to $2.04B (12.9% share), Pandora's (P) 67% to $400M, Twitter's 121% to $310M, and Millennial Media's (MM) 71% to $120M. Total digital (Web/mobile) ad sales are expected to rise 10% in 2013 to $116.8B, with Google growing 19% to $38.8B, Facebook 38% to $5.89B, Microsoft (MSFT) 22% to $2.08B, LinkedIn (LNKD) 46% to $380M, and Yahoo (YHOO) just 3% to $3.63B. (U.S. mobile estimates) 4 Comments [Tech]
Thursday, June 13, 11:49 AM Music licensing firm BMI is set to sue Pandora (P -0.9%) over its efforts to secure lower publishing royalty rates, Billboard reports. Sources claim BMI " realized that further negotiations with Pandora would be futile" following its attempt to lower payments by acquiring a Rapid City, SD radio station. 2 Comments [Tech]
Tuesday, June 11, 5:44 PM It looks like Pandora (P) is taking a backdoor approach to lowering the performance royalties it pays to trade association ASCAP. The Web radio leader has bought a tiny Rapid City, SD radio station, a move that could allow it to pay the lower fees granted to broadcast station owners. However, while content acquisition costs equaled 69% of Pandora's FY13 revenue, performance royalties to ASCAP and others only made up 4.3%. Recording royalties paid to SoundExchange are a much bigger expense. Pandora sued ASCAP over its rates last November. 4 Comments [Tech, M&A]
Monday, June 10, 3:11 PM Apple (AAPL -0.3%) announces iTunes Radio, its expected Pandora (P +3.2%) rival. The service is normally ad-supported, but is ad-free for iTunes Match ($25/year) subs. It supports Pandora-like station building and sharing, is integrated with iOS' Music app, and gives users the option to buy songs. Pandora has turned positive after trading lower earlier. Also: 1) Siri has been overhauled, and now includes Wikipedia/Twitter content, Bing (MSFT) results, and both male and female voices. 2) Apple launches iOS in the Car, a solution that mirrors iPhone content on in-car displays and is supported by 12 automakers. 3) iOS 7 also brings automatic app updates, a Photos app with automatic sorting and Instagram-like filters, and AirDrop file-sharing. (previous) (live blog) 23 Comments [Tech, Breaking News]
Monday, June 10, 9:24 AM Pandora (P) -2.6% as the NYT reports Apple will announce iRadio today, on the first day of WWDC. Forrester's James McQuivey tries to temper expectations, arguing the service will need breakthrough features to be successful in a well-established market. "It’s going to have to innovate ... It can’t just be Pandora with an ‘i’ in front of it or Spotify with an ‘i’ in front of it." Pandora now -22% since May 24 (the day after its FQ1 report), thanks in large part to Apple-related worries. 31.6% of the float was shorted as of May 15; will some shorts cover on the news? (previous) 1 Comment [Tech, On the Move]
Friday, June 7, 2:14 PM After trading lower this morning, Pandora (P +5.7%) has shot higher on a day that has seen the release of the company's May audience metrics, and an AllThingsD report about an iRadio licensing deal with Sony Music (the last major label to be signed). Pandora's May figures suggest its mobile listening cap continues to change user habits. Listener hours rose 22% Y/Y to 1.35B, but that growth rate is down slightly from April's 24%, and considerably from March's 40%. Also, Pandora's U.S. radio listening shared fell to 7.29% from 7.33% in April and 8.05% in March (it was 5.8% a year ago). Active listeners +1% M/M and +33% Y/Y to 70.8M. 2 Comments [Tech, On the Move]
Tuesday, June 4, 2:50 PM Pandora (P -4.1%) bleeds for the second day in a row (previous) on concerns about iRadio's impact. CFO Mike Herring's efforts at a BofA/Merrill conference to downplay the threat aren't doing much to help. A Bloomberg report claiming Apple is ramping its iRadio ad sales efforts and will share ad revenue with studios (apparently in return for playback options not supported by rivals) could be adding to the pressure. Will Apple disrupt Pandora in a way that Spotify, Amazon, Google, Sony, Microsoft, TuneIn, and Songza have thus far failed to? 18 Comments [Tech, On the Move]
Monday, June 3, 12:48 PM Midday top 10 gainers: CLVS +124%. OSH +62%. FALC +35%. TSRO +31%. ASI +21%. CHTP +19%. RCPT +18%. FLML +17%. LPTH +17%. PXLW +16%. Midday top 10 Losers: SNTA -34%. INFI -26%. SCON -20%. AFFY -19%. NBG -15%. GIGA -12%. P -11%. XONE -10%. DQ -10%. PW -10%. Comment!
Monday, June 3, 10:12 AM Pandora (P -6.3%) slumps following reports Apple has struck an iRadio licensing deal with Warner Music, and is trying to wrap up deals in time to announce the service at the June 10-14 WWDC conference. Apple still reportedly needs a publishing rights deal with Universal Music (a recorded music deal is said to have been struck), and publishing and recorded music deals with Sony. Two things still working in Pandora's favor: the time invested by its users in creating custom stations (creates a switching cost), and the fact Apple's service is expected to only work on Apple hardware (many Pandora users rely on both Apple and non-Apple hardware). (previous) 2 Comments [Tech, On the Move]
Friday, May 24, 4:26 PM After rising nearly 13% at the open following better than expected Q1 revenues with a jump in subscribers to its premium service, Pandora (P -4.2%) shares moved too far too fast before falling amid questions about the quality of its results. "Pandora needs to show further monetization gains in order to reach sustainable profitabilty," Dougherty's Steven Frankel says. "The mission is far from complete." 13 Comments [Tech, On the Move]
Friday, May 24, 10:20 AM Pandora (P +6.2%) gets a couple of more sell side boosts post-earnings, with Wells Fargo maintaining a Buy and upping its price target to $20-$22 from $15-$17. "Conversion of consumers impacted by mobile cap exceeded company estimates." Needham ups its FY14 EPS estimate a penny to $0.05 and reiterates its Buy and $20 PT. Comment! [Tech, On the Move]
Friday, May 24, 9:10 AM Premarket gainers: BLOX +17%. IOC +15%. YGE +13%. P +11%. MRVL +5%.
Losers: DF -52%. SHLD -16%. AVEO -15%. RSOL -13%. TITN -11%. APPY -7%. ANF -7%. CRM -5%. 2 Comments [On the Move]
Friday, May 24, 7:12 AM Pandora (P) gets a post-earnings upgrade to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC. "Is there something now that makes you think … you'll have a more subscription mix in the model going forward [considering] the increase in that Pandora One revenue?" analyst Mark Mahaney asks on the call. "From a product perspective it doesn’t change," CFO Michael Herring says, but "we will always look into optimizing our business and finding that balance between how much we want to emphasize the subscribers versus focus on ad sales." Price target to $24 from $16. Shares +11.6% premarket. (earnings summary, CC transcript) Comment! [Tech, On the Move]
Thursday, May 23, 5:33 PM After-hours top gainers, as of 5:15 p.m.: BLOX +18.2%. P +8.7%. MRVL +7.7%. NSPR +2.7%. OHI +2.4%.
After-hours top losers: AVEO -13.3%. WETF -11.9%. SHLD -11.5%. TITN -11.1%. I -8.1%. Comment! [On the Move]
Thursday, May 23, 4:38 PM More on Pandora (P) 2014 FQ1 earnings: FQ2 revenue guidance of $155M-$160M, EPS of a loss of $0.02 to profit of $0.01 vs. consensus of $149.7M and $0.01 profit. FY14 revenue guidance of $615M-$635M, EPS of a loss of $0.02 to profit of $0.08 vs. consensus of $616.7M and $0.01 profit. FQ1 non-GAAP mobile revenue of $86.7M up 101% Y/Y vs. mobile listener growth of just 47% (improved monetization). Total listen hours of 4.18B up 35%. Share of total U.S. radio listening is 7.33%, up from 5.86% a year ago. CC at 5 ET. Shares +8.5% AH. (PR) 1 Comment [Earnings, Tech, On the Move]
Thursday, May 23, 4:13 PM Pandora Media (P): Q1 EPS of -$0.10 in-line. Revenue of $125.5M beats by $1.67M. Shares +9.3% AH. (PR) Comment! [Earnings, Breaking News, Tech, On the Move]

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