Nov. 25, 2014, 10:51 AM
- Believing content costs could surge after the Copyright Royalty Board sets new performance royalty rates, FBR has downgraded Pandora (NYSE:P) to Underperform, and slashed its target all the way to $11 from $28.
- The downgrade comes a day after Pac Crest cut its 2015 and 2016 EPS estimates for Pandora, citing expectations for higher marketing and content costs.
- Pandora's content acquisition costs totaled $111.3M (46% of revenue) in Q3, +33% Y/Y but less than revenue growth of 40%.
Nov. 14, 2014, 9:53 AM
- Pandora (NYSE:P) CEO Brian McAndrews discloses he bought 25K shares on Wednesday at an average price of $18.58.
- McAndrews' purchase price wasn't far removed from a recently-set 52-week low of $17.55. Pandora remains down over 50% from a March high of $40.44.
- Separately, Pandora has announced it will host a CC on Tuesday to discuss its Web IV royalty rate proceedings before the Copyright Royalty Board.
Nov. 3, 2014, 5:35 PM
- ADEP, AMRS, ATVI, AWAY, AXLL, BIO, BIOL, BIRT, CALD, CBSO, CDXS, CERS, CHUY, CKEC, COHR, CORT, COUP, CRTO, CSU, DOX, DVN, ENPH, EXAM, EXEL, FANG, FEYE, FOXA, FRGI, GAS, GHDX, HR, ITRI, IVR, JAZZ, JIVE, JKHY, JMBA, KAR, MITT, MOSY, MPO, MYGN, NP, NRP, NSTG, NYMT, OAS, OCLR, OKE, OKS, PACD, PAYC, PBPB, PCYC, PEGA, PHH, PRI, PXD, PZZA, REGI, REXX, RLOC, RNR, RP, SBAC, SN, SPA, SQNM, TMH, TNET, TRIP, TTGT, TWO, TWOU, TX, UIL, WPX, XEC, XNPT, ZAGG, ZU
Oct. 30, 2014, 12:40 PM
- Less than a month after upgrading Pandora (P -3.1%) to Market Perform, Albert Fried's Rich Tullo has downgraded shares back to Underweight. His target has been cut by $4 to $16.
- Not surprisingly, Pandora's Q3 metrics are on Tullo's mind. "As Pandora’s monthly usage flattens below our original forecast to 76.6 million as compared to 78 million, we think Pandora will be challenged to manage content costs while expanding revenue at the current ad load." He adds Pandora risks losing users to rivals if it "expands ad load too fast."
- Tullo calls Pandora's launch of an Artist Marketing Platform (AMP) for musicians a positive, but considers it "too little too late," and says it "feels like a fig leaf" ahead of Copyright Royalty Board rate hearings.
- Pandora fell 20% in the time between Tullo's upgrade and downgrade.
Oct. 28, 2014, 6:38 PM
- Facebook beat Q3 estimates, but provided Q4 revenue guidance that was slightly below consensus at the midpoint.
- Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) -1.7% AH; shares fell 9.8% in regular trading due to yesterday's Q3 results and guidance.
- LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) -1.6%. Pandora (NYSE:P) -1.2%. YELP -1.6%. Zillow (NASDAQ:Z) -1%.
- Many of the same names sold off after Netflix and eBay's earnings two weeks ago.
Oct. 24, 2014, 12:48 PM
Oct. 24, 2014, 9:15 AM
Oct. 23, 2014, 6:18 PM
- Though its results and guidance beat expectations, Pandora (NYSE:P) reports it had 76.5M active listeners at the end of Q3, barely above the 76.4M it had at the end of Q2 and up only 5.2% Y/Y. Questions about the impact of competition are bound to come up.
- Listener hours totaled 4.99B, -1% Q/Q and +25% Y/Y; Y/Y growth benefited from the presence of a 40-hour free mobile listening cap during part of Q3 2013. Pandora's share of U.S. radio listening rose to 9.06% in September from 8.9% in June and 7.77% a year ago.
- Total Q3 ad revenue per thousand ad-supported listener hours (RPM) rose to $44.35 from $40.11 in Q2 and $39.68 a year ago. PC ad RPM +10% Y/Y to $64.13; mobile ad RPM +16% to $40.82.
- The RPM gains helped ad revenue rise 44% to $194.3M. Subscription/other revenue rose 25% to $45.3M. GAAP opex rose 48% to $114.8M, and content acquisition costs (driven by royalties) 33% to $111.3M.
- P -6.1% AH. Q3 results, PR
Oct. 23, 2014, 5:42 PM
Oct. 23, 2014, 4:06 PM| 7 Comments
Oct. 22, 2014, 5:35 PM
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Oct. 20, 2014, 2:47 PM
- Spotify is now offering family discounts: While the first family member signing up for its premium service pays the standard $10/month, each additional member pays only $5/month. "This is one of the most asked for features from our audience," says content chief Ken Parks.
- Meanwhile, Re/code reports Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been pushing music labels to agree to price cuts that would allow it to sell an overhauled Beats Music streaming service (previous) for just $5/month. However, the site suspects Apple doesn't think the labels will give in, and considers an $8/month rate a more realistic goal.
- Pandora (P -1.9%) is lower on an up day for tech. Thus far, the company has done a decent job of staving off threats from subscription-based streaming services.
- Spotify, still possibly eying an IPO, had 10M paid subs and 40M active users spread out over 56 markets as of May. Pandora had 3.5M active subs and 76.4M active listeners (mostly in the U.S.) at the end of Q2. Its Q3 report arrives on Thursday.
Oct. 2, 2014, 10:33 AM
- Just a week after launching coverage at Hold, Topeka's Victor Anthony has upgraded Pandora (P +1.4%) to Buy.
- Anthony observes shares have fallen 9% since last week's coverage launch, and 43% from their March high. "The pullback creates a favorable risk-reward scenario, with 62% upside to our bull case model vs. 35% downside to our bear case model."
- Shares are moderately higher. Albert Fried, previously quite bearish on Pandora, upgraded shares to Market Perform on Tuesday.
Sep. 22, 2014, 1:45 PM
- High-beta tech stocks are selling off hard as the Nasdaq registers a 1.3% decline. The selling is broad-based, with Internet, solar, and enterprise tech stocks all well-represented among the ranks of major decliners.
- Major Internet decliners: BIDU -4.7%. ANGI -7%. YELP -5.9%. AWAY -5.1%. CHGG -5.9%. GRUB -5.8%. P -5.2%. Z -4.6%. TRLA -4.8%. ATHM -7.9%. BITA -7%. DANG -5.9%. WB -5.3%.
- Solar: FSLR -4.5%. SCTY -7.5%. SPWR -4.5%. DQ -7.6%. JKS -5.5%. ASTI -6.3%. ENPH -5.5%. CSIQ -4.8%.
- Enterprise: WDAY -5.4%. GIMO -6.7%. VMEM -7.7%. IMPV -4.8%. MKTO -4.9%. SPRT -5.1%. CSOD -5.5%.
- Others: HIMX -4.6%. SIGM -5.6%. WATT -9.7%. CYNI -5.3%. ADNC -5.7%. PXLW -5%. SWIR -5.8%. MITK -6%. OCLR -6%.
Sep. 20, 2014, 4:48 PM
- Though plenty of ink has been spilled over Facebook's (NASDAQ:FB) competitive threats over the last year, eMarketer estimates the average U.S. Facebook user now spends 39 minutes/day on its site and apps - up from 38 in 2013 and 35 in 2012. The figures exclude Instagram, whose user base has a large U.S. component, and also WhatsApp.
- In spite of the usage growth, Facebook's share of U.S. social media time has fallen to 33.3% from a 2011 peak of 40%. Likewise, its share of U.S. digital time spent has slipped to 6% from 6.5%. On the other hand, with digital continuing to grab media share, Facebook's share of total media time spent has grown to 2.8% from 2.2%.
- Meanwhile, with Facebook's ad sales having soared over the last two years thanks to an all-out monetization push (especially on mobile), eMarketer estimates the company now has a 9.7% share of U.S. digital ad spend, 370 bps above its digital time share. By contrast, all other social networks claim just a 3.9% share of U.S. digital ad spend, in spite of having an 11.9% share of time spent.
- Likewise, Pandora (NYSE:P) is estimated to have only a 1.4% digital ad spend share vs. a 7.1% share of time spent. With the company spending aggressively to grow its ad salesforce, that gap could narrow in the coming years.
- As is the case for many of its peers, the U.S. remains crucial to Facebook's top and bottom lines: North America still accounted for 44% of Q2 revenue, even though it was responsible for only 15% of MAUs.
- Previous: Pew's U.S. Facebook survey data
Sep. 16, 2014, 10:11 AM
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