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Peyto Exploration: Canadian Gas Producer Offers Shelter From The (Oil) Storm
- Low cost Canadian gas producer delivered an excellent Q3 EPS report: up 114% yoy.
- Production per share increased 33%; FFO was up 63%/share; monthly dividend increased 10%.
- Canadian gas storage inventories are significantly below the 5-year minimum - a bullish catalyst moving forward.
- I reiterate my STRONG BUY rating on PEYUF and raise my 12-month PT to $40.
Peyto Exploration Boosts Guidance In A Very Bullish Operational Update
- Peyto has already met the high end of year-end production guidance - and did so under budget.
- Year-end guidance is boosted from 81,500 boe/d to 85,000 boe/d.
- Expansion of the Oldman North gas plant is completed and fully operational.
- I reiterate my STRONG BUY while lowering my year-end price target to $38.
Dividend Growth Investors: It Pays To Own Peyto Exploration
- Peyto Exploration had an excellent 1H of 2014, posting $0.81/share of net income as compared to full-year 2013's $0.96.
- The company recently said production growth would "meet or exceed" the high-end of its previous guidance.
- Peyto historically pays a high % of net income as dividends. This implies a big increase in the dividend is coming.
- Peyto is on track to roughly double EPS yoy. It is undervalued and a STRONG BUY.
Is The Pendulum Swinging From Oil Back To Natural Gas? - Part 2
- Natural gas storage inventory levels are near an 11-year low and exactly half of the level of one year ago.
- Meantime, Gulf Coast oil inventories are at record highs.
- It would appear that for the first time in years, the outlook for the price of domestic natural gas is more bullish than that of domestic oil.
- Canadian gas producer Peyto Exploration looks poised to benefit from the trend in North American natural gas prices. Stock could.
Peyto Exploration: A Winning Stock For Growing Oil Sands Diluent Demand
- Oil sand bitumen production requires diluent blend in order to meet pipeline flow specifications.
- Growing oil sands production is expected to increase diluent demand by ~50% to 600,000 bpd over the next 4 years.
- Canada imported 150,000 b/d of diluent from the US in 2013.
- Peyto Exploration is excellently positioned as the low cost gas producer in Alberta's Deep Basin to supply growing (and very profitable) diluent demand.
- Peyto's total 12-month return should approach 40%.
Peyto Exploration: Set To Soar On Higher Production, Gas Prices, And Profit Margin Expansion
- Peyto is the lowest cost gas producer in Alberta's Deep Basin.
- Operating margins were 76% in 2013; profit margins were ~25%.
- Production expected to grow ~30% in 2014 while the AECO gas price is up 30% YOY: profit margin/Mcfe could double in 2014.
- As a result, total distributions will grow to an estimated ~$1.36/share in 2014; stock could appreciate 40% over the next twelve months.
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