PGJ Forum Topics
- All Comments on PGJ
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- How to Handle Stagflation [view article]
- Hot Money and Inflation Risks Still Being Downplayed in China [view article]
- China: American-style vs Latin-American-style Crises [view article]
- Will Asian Financials Be Affected By US Bank Woes? [view article]
- In China Housing Is Still Up, but Rationing Is Spreading [view article]
- The Case for Buying China Now [view article]
- China: June CPI is Down, but PPI is Up [view article]
- Is There Tightness in China's Money Market? [view article]
- On China and What the World Won’t See During the Olympics [view article]
- In China Money is Way to Loose, Not Tight [view article]
- China's P/E Down to 20 [view article]
- China Overtakes Japan as Worst Performing Market [view article]
loading ...Recent PGJ Articles
- Hot Money and Inflation Risks Still Being Downplayed in China
- How to Handle Stagflation
- Getting Through the Mess in the Markets
- Will Asian Financials Be Affected By US Bank Woes?
- China: American-style vs Latin-American-style Crises
- In China Housing Is Still Up, but Rationing Is Spreading
- The Case for Buying China Now
- Is There Tightness in China's Money Market?
- China: June CPI is Down, but PPI is Up
- China's P/E Down to 20
- Full List of Articles »
How to Handle Stagflation [view article]
Enzio, i think items 1,2,3 are right on . I was waiting to see someone put it in writing .Good article . Reply
How to Handle Stagflation [view article]
I agree somewhat with "iThinkBig".... You don't cure stagflation, but you dull the pain by providing opportunities. Just read in the paper that 1 out of 4 kids don't graduate from high-school.... That's pretty bad. Course, if they see their parents struggling against the odds, maybe they don't view education as a means to the good life. (Well, unless your one of G. Bushes chosen, in which case, hang tight... Those tax cuts are still on the table!)..Also makes you wonder why someone like Bill Gates, who has made a considerable amount of money starting his business here in the US, is on the one hand whining about the lack of capable programmers and on the other busy handing out charity to other countries. Seems to me, that if he'd like to see a healthy US, he'd invest in education here. Of course, Microsoft has never been known for innovation, so why would anyone expect that?
jegan ;-) Reply
Hot Money and Inflation Risks Still Being Downplayed in China [view article]
If China is genuinely concerned about having too much hot money why they still restrict wiring money out from China?Reply
Hot Money and Inflation Risks Still Being Downplayed in China [view article]
Each Hong Kong resident is allowed to exchange for CNY 20,000 and each of them is allowed to send CNY 80,000/day into China. The legal channels are leaky and wide open. By simple calculation, CNY 80,000 per day x5 days a week and 50 weeks per year, you comes to CNY 20 million a year for each Hong Kong resident. There are 5 to six millions of them. The barrier is porous, leaky and are legal. And the underground, supposed to be illegal channels are wide open. Have you heard anyone get caught trying to wire CNY to China from Hong Kong. Don't fixate your mind to QFI, trade surplus.......... etc. You still have an American frame of mind.Reply
How to Handle Stagflation [view article]
The title says: "How to Handle Stagflation", but I don't see where in this article this question is addressed. What did I miss? ReplyHow to Handle Stagflation [view article]
Great article and good comments. The energy crisis could be both problem and solution. Continuing the energy policy of the past (importing oil) creates a financial problem that dwarfs the current credit crisis, the national debt (on the books debt) and Social Security/Medicare unfunded liabilities combined. Changing our energy policy might create financial salvation. I try to discuss this on the latest post on my website. ReplyDenlinger
China: American-style vs Latin-American-style Crises [view article]
Another data point is the fact that Shanghai Vanke is lowering prices on Shanghai real estate:www.chinavortex.com/20.../
And that Alibaba's Jack Ma is taking a very pessimistic tone:
www.chinavortex.com/20.../
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How to Handle Stagflation [view article]
You quell social unrest by increasing the quality of life. It's skilled job opportunities missing in the US. Agree with above on energy and also subsidize higher education funding. There is no short term solutions for all this pain, it's all mid-term and hence why I have stated economy will deflate by 20% (forecasted this June of 2007 before the oil shocks just recently crashed market again). President Bush proposed $300 B in Higher Ed in May, we see the recent cornering of the Democratic controlled House on drilling so he gets it but unfortunately for the citizenship, besides bailouts for the irresponsible in our financial sector, Congress will not do a thing until after elections as it wants there man (Obama) to get the credit. Shameful. ReplyHow to Handle Stagflation [view article]
A comprehensive domestic energy policy in the USA would go a long way to provide a psychological boost to the domestic economy. A believable policy would immediately moderate inflationary expectations for commodity products....MarvinMBA ReplyHow to Handle Stagflation [view article]
The man is wise. Listen to him and Rob Ivanoff at wallastoninvestments.c.../ ReplyChina: American-style vs Latin-American-style Crises [view article]
Itsjustal, bank information is usually pretty timely, so I would guess we can get the information on a monthly basis. I am not sure if I want to use a word as alarmist as "precipice", but we clearly need a lot more than the current tinkering to get us back onto a good path. I sense an increasing frustration in the policy-making debate. ReplyWill Asian Financials Be Affected By US Bank Woes? [view article]
Enzio frequently gets it right from a macroeconomic view. ReplyIn China Housing Is Still Up, but Rationing Is Spreading [view article]
PLD, the real estate market is acting a little strange. I hear that prices in Shanghai are stable, but sales volumes are down, and then I hear that in order to maintain the fiction of stable prices, all sorts of discounts are applied -- for example a woman bought an apartment at the listed price but then was given a smaller apartment just upstairs as a "gift". Some gift -- she now has a duplex. Meanwhile real estate prices around the country are up over the quarter, but real estate agencies in Shenzhen are firing up to a third of their employees. It is a little hard to know exactly what is going on, but clearly people are concerned. ReplyChina: American-style vs Latin-American-style Crises [view article]
Your final paragraph is the most worrisome. Inflation is already at 8 percent. What sort of percentage rise in inflation would you deem is "signicant"? .5 percent? 5 percent? And, how long is the period of time between when bank withdrawals actually occur and when they are recorded and publicly reported?I read and enjoy all of your pieces here. Do I sense that you consider China to be nearing some sort of a precipice that requires more timely and direct action than "tinkering"? Reply
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In China Housing Is Still Up, but Rationing Is Spreading [view article]
It's good to keep reminding us that China is still ruled by communist who believe in "command & control" even though it has been completely discredited through out history. None-the-less, China is assendant and investment opportunities abound.I sold TAO recently on fears that the Communist Party will suppress Real Estate prices to prevent a bubble. It is just hard to trust them since they don't really believe that free-markets provide their own checks & balances.
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