PowerShares Gldn Dragon Halter USX China (PGJ)

All Comments on PGJ

  • commenter
    samij
    Aug 18 06:55 AM
    Russia's Too Risky - Barron's [view article]
    hey bull, why do you invest in a country where contracts are re-negotiated after you have made your investment and you're no longer needed? investing is ok, expecting return on investement is not? i fail to find the incentive for making investments under such terms. Reply
  • commenter
    Russian Bull
    Aug 18 06:05 AM
    My Website
    Russia's Too Risky - Barron's [view article]
    This has to be one of the most thoughtless articles I have read on Seeking Alpha in a long time. Someone give me back those 90 seconds. No, okay, well, let me try and save the future readers: I think Russia is oversold and the Ruble is undervalued and this article blows chunks.

    Russia has its problems--no doubt--but in terms of risk I think the perceived risk is much higher than true risk in reality.

    Funny, the media makes a lot of noise over Yukos and BP, but the fact of the matter is that Russia has declared the oil and gas industry a "state secure sector". The Western National oil companies are no longer needed by Russia and their contracts are being re-negotiated. That's life in the big city. Ask the shareholders of IndyMac about governmental takeover risk.
    Reply
  • commenter
    Billco42
    Aug 17 11:59 PM
    Russia's Too Risky - Barron's [view article]
    Sorry to have to say it, Alpha Seeker, but that sort of brain dead thinking (along with comensurate inactions) would only lead us to become further enslaved and more vulnerable-the russian government (the only real power there) is not our (the west's) friend nor it's peoples friend. It is essentially a dictatorship masquerading as a democracy, and some of our current problems have derived from choosing to think otherwise. Although it is certainly true that the current administration is both incompetant and fiscally irresponsible, I would hardly look to the naive softball approach of an obama or the democratic party establishment to rectify the situation. As for the size of our military, I think it's apparent (on the basis their own actions) that the both the chinese and russians don't think building strong militaries are a waste of money. In essense, the only thing that is keeping russia remotely in check in georgia is the knowledge that we (the USA), in coordination with our eastern european allies, can and will take appropriate measures. Appeals to civility alone have little effect on them. Wake Up! Reply
  • commenter
    Alpha Seeker
    Aug 17 08:26 PM
    Russia's Too Risky - Barron's [view article]
    Unfortunately, the brainwashing lie embedded in the US History books suggest that Russia might be "dangerous". The reality is that historically Russia was on our side during both World Wars. The current administration and the administrations before have vested interest in painting countries as enemies so they can instill fear, justify military spending and ultimately rewrite the history books. This " I will protect you if you elect me " attitude is simply a political play. The people of Russia are peaceful and hope for better lives. Unfortunately in the last 100 years they underwent difficult times, choosing wrong leaders and being taken hostages to dictators and criminal revolutionaries. Finally, after so many years, the Russians have normal, democratic, and just leadership. Putin/Medvedv are great strategists and finally the Russians have improved their standard of living. In the meanwhile we did not elect our best-of-breed leader like John Kerry, instead voting for a good ol' oil cowboy. Our standard of living went mostly downhill and the middle class fell behind compared to countries in the EU. It is the brainwashed nationalist in the administration that hold onto the expensive idea that US is the only superpower. That is no longer true, we cannot pay the price for it and you will have both -EU and China laugh along at this idea. We can no longer afford to play police-state, spend money abroad and act out on some leader's sick military ambitions. There is nothing to be gained by having large military. It is time we face our own people, education and health-care issues, invest in our own development not in the stakes of greedy oil corporations. Look at the space-team Russia-US-EU. This is the model of the future. Finally there is a bright light coming to us and his name is Obama. We are going to invest in solar, wind and nuclear and become energy independent. We won't need the Middle East at this point. The time is coming and once again, remember that neither Russia, nor China and EU are enemies. They are our friends, not our slaves. Reply
  • commenter
    Respirate
    Aug 17 07:34 PM
    Russia's Too Risky - Barron's [view article]
    Naive people in this country who thought the US had "won" the Cold War must rethink their assumptions. Some saw what they wanted to see, namely a big cuddly Russia, akin to Great britain but with teeth - and equipped with vast natural resources to share. Bush looked in Putin's eyes and saw a "kindred spirit."

    The harsh reality is that it was just a time out during which Russia regrouped and rearmed. Round 3 began while we were still taking bows for winning Round 1.     Reply
  • commenter
    James V
    Aug 17 11:45 AM
    China's Energy Strategy: Panda or Dragon? [view article]
    China is not a Dragon or a Panda.
    It is 100% a Tiger in every possible respect.

    In terms of energy security, China will go to any length even partnering up with their main competitor the USA.

    China had a special secret deal with USA to back their activites going into Iraq in return for oil. In return they proved very useful especially in using its influence with Pakistan.
    Reply
  • commenter
    paulk8756
    Aug 16 09:54 AM
    The Anniversary of Nixon's Price Controls [view article]
    It was a different world back then, to say the least. Americans, having only recently won WWII, had a lot more faith in their government.

    While a genius on foreign policy, Nixon never had a flair for economics. Besides wage and price controls, he proposed a national income policy (guaranteed wages), and was responsible for the hated "Drive 55" national speed limit.

    These peccadilloes and Watergate had a great deal to do with lowering the esteem in which Americans now hold their government.     Reply
  • commenter
    kelaido
    Aug 16 12:56 AM
    The Anniversary of Nixon's Price Controls [view article]
    If we plot the total credit against time since gold standard was abolished, we will see a chart of 'Mother of All Bubbles'. All bubbles during our generation have ended badly, but credit bubble has taken so long and risen so high that it is taken for granted into perpetuity . China is new to the game of credit inflation relative to the western econmies. In a 'short' 20 yrs, China has transitioned from mainly cash, to increasingly credit with impressive credit growth exceeding economic growth. It will be different if China is self-sufficient in resources to stimulate internal growth, but China is a big importer of hard commodities and is now verging on even becoming a net importer of food. The risk with the current economic slowdown is aggravated by all major economies slowing in syn. This time may really turn really ugly. Recent oil and commodity prices have declared war on monetary growth. To declare victory on inflation during this respite of fuel and commodity price corrections will simply invite price increases with a vengeance not far down the road. Reply
  • commenter
    daniela
    Aug 15 11:56 AM
    Six Reasons To Buy China Soon [view article]
    Toxxum, great comments. China is not consumer economy. It is based mainly on exports. I would not touch China unless we really know how economic situation really looks like. That means fall of communist regime. It's good that author is buying into regime's happy numbers. Makes their economy go, economy keeps going. lalala-all is well. Reply
  • commenter
    toxxum
    Aug 14 09:16 PM
    Six Reasons To Buy China Soon [view article]
    I was living in China for quite a few years and I wouldn't touch Chinese equities with a broom. Rapidly ageing population (in 2020, there will be more pensioners than people under employment); the environmental damage is estimated to eat up 10% of its GDP; the huge currency reserves are a result of the government printing money and then buying foreign currencies to keep the Yuan low; increasingly civil unrest (51,000 incidents last year alone); banking sector is burdened with huge non-perperforming loans; statistics are notoriously unreliable and mostly fake (how do you collect GDP data from the authorities of 30 provinces which are not fully computerized, yet publish monthly stats on the 2nd day of the following month??); the central government is desperately trying to hold to its powers by spending huge amounts on censorship (ever heard of the "China Great Electronic Wall"?); 70% of the population live on less than USD 1,000 per year etc etc.

    Be careful before you invest. I was running a company with a few hundred people and I can assure you that what you read in your local newspapers does not reflect reality!     Reply
  • commenter
    From India
    Aug 14 08:40 PM
    Six Reasons To Buy China Soon [view article]
    Techy

    For the starters, India calculates Inflation using Wholesale Price Index (WPI): www.rediff.com/money/2....

    I am being shocked at what I see at the retail level, at the Department Stores. On your next visit here, you will be surprised too. :)

    When did we start excluding Housing from Inflation? Housing's share is about 20% worldwide ( or even more, can someone please supply the statistic?). I see no reason in excluding Housing from the basket as you are suggesting. Actually if you look at it, it is even more the reason to consider it seriously at this juncture: All this while, irrespective of the Housing Prices appreciation , the renting costs remained low, with the rents not having gone up noticably (I am no "Elitist" as you were suggesting - only a handful pockets of people were experiencing the housing price increase in the last 5 years, mainly in the technology areas). But now, everyone is starting to see and feel it. My own parents have started seeing people withholding from renting unless they are being rewarded with huge rent increases (around 20%). www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifp0...

    No disrespect but just noticing something: You are being a true techy: Being a non-US investor, you were saying that it doesnt worry you what the underlying Economy's inflation rate is, since you feel currency exchange appreciation takes care of the equation: Please dont invest with out consideration of the fundamentals. That will not bode well for long term returns. In that case may be you should invest in Zimbabwe :) ( Disclaimer: I am just kidding, no serious offense).

    It is true that one doesn't need to worry abt local currency's inflation if we are valuing companies in $. I just happened to start noticing something about one company's market capital and then it stuck me: That the WACC could be extremely high. RIL's market cap is around 3Trillion (local currency - I am not kidding). I dont know what kind of growth rate would support that kind of market cap. May be, all Indian companies should now start loading up on Debt.

    One other thing: India was able to grow fast, as it had enormous amounts of labor available with out companies resorting to wage increases (not a lot other than technology and BPO). I believe they were able to satisfy Aggregate Demand with out major price level increases in the last few years - without resulting in major inflation. I mean with out Aggregate Supply curves shifting that much. The economy was humming and exports were good. Now I believe the times have dawned for major shifts. Anticipated inflation itself is 13% so I dont understand how it cannot feed into major AS curve shifts. In fact, this maynot bode well for Developed economies like US which were fed by cheap exported goods. (I think this is also true of China eventhough the underlying economies have major differences - structural?)

    Even though Indians saved massively earlier, I am not sure the same will continue. Flow of foreign capital was good (even though it may have dried up now - need to locate real figures now), but with a negative real rate of savings, will they keep saving? ( I am suspecting they will not from whatI am seeing - there is a huge splurge). If domestic savings dry up and with Govt competing for foreign Capital, what will be the ramifications?

    Overall, I dont think the times have come to start taking long term positions in India. Wait and you will be rewarded.

    PS: Techy, I am no Elitist. Wagres should increase. But I am worried about unwinding of a spiral - of price level increases. I just happened to read this article and about India and thought I should express some of my concerns. India is long term story, but may be not now. I am passing it.     Reply
  • commenter
    User 71460
    Aug 14 08:57 AM
    The Consumer Driven Commodities Bull [view article]
    Can the author also provide his estimate of the effects of the downturn in the US economy on the 27% of the China's GDP dependent on exports, and its consequences on the consumer demand that powers 37% of its GDP?

    One could reasonably assume that the impact of the drop in US demand for Chinese goods due to its recession would result in layoffs in the Chinese export sector, thus adversely affecting China's consumer sector spending...     Reply
  • commenter
    Pipo
    Aug 14 06:31 AM
    My Website
    Six Reasons To Buy China Soon [view article]
    As Jim Rogers says investing in China in 2008 is like invsting in the United States in 1907.

    The prospects are brilliant for medium to long term players. Visit a good Jim Rogers Blog at jimrogers-investments....     Reply
  • commenter
    fxtrader07
    Aug 14 04:38 AM
    Six Reasons To Buy China Soon [view article]
    www.investorsinsight.c...

    people tend to extrapolate trends and usually do not expect major interruptions or deviations. The business cy<cle is neiter dead nor can it be cheated over longer periods of time. China is going to get a heavy recessionary fallout from the recession that arrives in the usa and europe. the stock market there is signalling it all year.
    in that downturn it will be seen how robust and of what quality china#s growth really is/was. and regarding the forex reserves: they may soon find themselves in a position where they will have to spent billions and billions to rescue once again their own banking system. the us-subprime sector looks like prime when compared to china#s lending standards. watch out below.
    therw ill be a time to buy china with both hands. it hasn't arrived yet. similar with india - though their economy has different problems than the chinese and might overall weather the coming months better     Reply
  • commenter
    James V
    Aug 14 12:50 AM
    The Consumer Driven Commodities Bull [view article]
    Per Capita income increases need to be put into prosepective of living cost increases and thus disposable income.

    Wages are not rising anywhere near to the rise in the cost of living.
    The factory workers have never been so poor. The cost of living in ruban/rural areas is up massively.

    Also lets not get confused about the reality of the development of factory workers consumer power. A lot of them in this lifetime will never buy cars/houses. As things stand most of them can not even afford to buy what they help make.

    Same with construction workers, if you are a builder in the UK. You make good money. Can buy a car, buy a nice house, have nice LCD TV. Construction workers in China can not afford any of the above. Sometimes they do even get paid.

    The wage differential is huge and until that reduces, we will not see the sort of consumer development everyone thinks will happen.

    However of course, due to the immense size of China's population, you only need a low percentage to develop into fully fledged consumers for increadible consumption trends to emerge. This is sure to happen as China develops its manufacturing base to a higher added value chain and the service industry develops further.

    In terms of the USA, effectively their entire economy is flawed.
    Wealth is created through financial manipulation and the printing of money. Which is then backed up by military strength. This financial manipulation and monetry creation is then sent down the chain to the consumer who has artificial wealth to spend which creates the consumer sector strength.

    Problem is this is unsustainable. Sept 11 we saw the military chain broken. The credit crisis/housing collaspe then broke yet another chain.
    The solution, print more money and send more printed money to consumers in the form of rebate cheques.
    Reply

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