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Wed, Mar. 12, 6:56 PM
- While steep drops in copper, iron ore and coking coal prices have spooked investors, KGHM chief Derek White says there's no need for mining executives to panic - at least not yet.
- There's no real threat to copper mining operations at a long-term copper price ~$3/lb., White says, but that could change if the price drops below $2.50 for a prolonged period.
- Iron ore prices have performed better than expected in recent years, and this week’s drop brings them closer to many forecasts; analysts believe most iron ore projects are fine at a long-term price above $100/metric ton.
- Coking coal's current $110/metric ton is still not low enough to disrupt most operations, with some exceptions; TD Securities expects Teck Resources (TCK) to defer its Quintette project in British Columbia until the market recovers.
- ETFs: XME, COPX, CU, JUNR, PICK, JJC, DBB, CPER, RJZ, BOM, BOS, JJM, BDD, CUPM, RGRI, UBM, BDG, USMI, HEVY
Mon, Mar. 10, 10:45 AM
- The 8.3% dive in the price of iron ore to $104.70 per ton is the 2nd largest one-day decline on record, and came following weekend data showing an 18.1% Y/Y slump in Chinese exports in February (a gain of 7.5% was expected). While miners like BHP and RIO remain optimistic about supply/demand dynamics (though dour on price prospects), Goldman - picking one analyst team - sees the market moving into surplus in H2 and prices falling below $100 per ton.
- The Shanghai Composite fell 2.9% overnight and Brazil's Bovespa is down 2% in the early-going. Australia (EWA) declined 0.9% and the aussie (FXA) is off 0.6% to $0.9017.
- The steelmaking ingredient is off 22% YTD and at its lowest price since October 2012.
- In the meantime, the rumors are flying, including speculation a mill in China's Shanxi province defaulted on Friday and shut five to six furnaces. There's also chatter about banks looking to call in 20% of loans to private steel companies.
- EWZ -2.1%, VALE -2.8%.
- Brazil ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRAZ, BZQ, BRZU, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
- Base metal mining ETFs: XME, JUNR, PICK
Nov. 15, 2013, 12:52 PM
- The basic materials sector has badly lagged the broader market YTD, and Miller Tabak's Jonathan Krinsky surmises investor rotation into the group is likely if the overall market rally is set to continue.
- Krinsky's charts tell him the sector has been making higher lows since the 2009 bottom, but unlike the broad market and many other sectors, it has yet to clear its 2007-08 highs, giving the look of an ascending triangle - and the presumption of an upside resolution.
- ETFs: XLB, XME, JUNR, PICK, MSXX, FMAT.
Sep. 12, 2013, 2:58 PM
- Oppenheimer analysts are believers in the materials sector, citing increasing evidence that the global economy is modestly improving from its recent lethargic pace of growth, particularly in emerging markets.
- Strategas isn't so sure; despite some stronger equity performance in recent weeks, it sees the persistence of cyclical weakness in emerging economies and the apparent forming of a structural consolidation in global commodities complex; it favors companies with a higher domestic revenue profile over those with a broader global footprint.
- Vulcan Materials (VMC) gets just 1% of its revenue overseas, while Airgas (ARG) has just 2%; those least exposed to the U.S. economy include Newmont Mining (NEM), which gets all of its revenue abroad, and International Flavors (IFF) and Owens-Illinois (OI), which each get 23%-24% of sales at home.
- ETFs: XLB, XME, EMT, PICK, JUNR. MSXX.
Sep. 11, 2013, 10:56 AM
- BofA Merrill Lynch sees huge contrarian value in global mining and steel companies while investors remain underweight in their holdings.
- A stronger global economy is coming, BAML says, noting China has been restocking iron ore, the pace of copper destocking in the country has slowed, and global steel prices have been rising.
- The top buys from the firm: ATI in steel, CNX in coal, ABX and KGC in precious metals, KALU in aluminum, and SCCO in copper, plus diversified miners FCX and VALE.
- ETFs: XME, XLB, EMT, PICK, JUNR, MSXX.
Jan. 7, 2013, 12:06 PMAmong 2012's top 12 new ETFs is iShares' bet on investor interest in miners outside of gold and silver (PICK). High yield investors (HYG, JNK) may want a look at Barclays' Short-Term High Yield Bond Fund (SJNK). In emerging markets, iShares undercuts its emerging market ETF (EEM) with IEMG, giving exposure to small-caps and an expense ratio of just 18 bps, about 50 bps less than EEM. | 1 Comment
Jun. 12, 2012, 5:07 AMSome mining companies (including BHP and RIO) that have relied mostly on surface mining are now going deeper, allowing them to continue using mining, processing and transport infrastructure even after the surface deposits are depleted. New technologies and the high price of commodities are making the unusually-deep mines financially feasible, but going deeper isn't without its risks. | 9 Comments
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