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Friday, Aug 1612:48 PM
Friday, Aug 1612:48 PM| Comment!
- Struggling home builders are jumping ahead on respectable but in-line housing data, as at least overall construction has climbed in two of the past three months.
- "Looking at the underlying trend in one-family starts suggests that the pace of groundbreaking activity is actually fairly steady," an RBS economist says, unconcerned about July's drop in single-family starts since "anecdotal evidence suggests builders may be holding back on new construction in part to reap the benefits of higher prices."
- Raymond James "continue[s] to believe we are in the early stages of a sustainable up-cycle in U.S. housing," and favors Toll Brothers (TOL +1.5%), which it sees as less sensitive to mortgage rates.
- PHM +3.4%, LEN +3.1%, KBH +2.9%.
- ETFs: XHB, ITB, PKB, REZ.
Friday, Aug 168:41 AM
Friday, Aug 168:41 AM| 3 Comments
- Weeding out volatile multiple-family figures, July single-family starts of 591K fell 2.2% from June's revised figure of 604K. The 591K print is the lowest since last November as higher interest rates sap some of the market's energy.
- July building permits of 943K is 2.7% above June's revised rate of 918K.
- A few homebuilders premarket: TOL +0.7%, LEN +0.6%, PHM +1.2%.
- Homebuilder ETFs: XHB, ITB, PKB.
- Full report.
Thursday, Aug 1511:40 AM
Thursday, Aug 1511:40 AM| Comment!
- The NAHB builder sentiment index rises to nearly an 8-year high of 59 in August - the last time it was higher was 61 in November 2005. The move comes with the pace of new home sales nearing 500K annually, 38% higher than a year ago, but off from the 700K consistent with a healthy market.
- The HomeBuilders ETF (XHB -0.4%) continues its summer decline, though it has bounced significantly since the NAHB print hit the tape.
- Other ETFs: XHB, ITB, PKB.
- A few stocks: Toll Brothers (TOL +2%), M/I Homes (MHO +3%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.7%), Pulte (PHM +2.2%), Lennar (LEN +3.1%), Ryland (RYL +1.3%), Beazer (BZH +2.9%).
Wednesday, Aug 147:12 AM
Wednesday, Aug 147:12 AM| 5 Comments
- Rising rates continue to take a toll on mortgage applications, with the purchase index off 5.4% last week and the refinance index down 4.4% - the overall index fell 4.7%.
- It's a 2-year low for the overall application index and the lowest level for refinances since April 2011.
- Keep an eye on the recently-struggling homebuilders, ETFs: XHB, ITB, PKB.
Monday, Jul 222:58 PMHomebuilders (ITB -1.4%) tumble across the board after existing June home sales slipped a seasonally adjusted 1.2%. Rising mortgage rates were supposed to boost short-term demand as potential buyers aimed to lock in mortgages before rates went even higher, but the June report showed no sign of it. KBH -2.6%, RYL -2.5%, MTH -2.5%, DHI -2.2%, MDC -2.2%, HOV -2%, LEN -2%, PHM -1.6%, TOL -1.4%. |Monday, Jul 222:58 PM| 3 Comments
Monday, Jul 229:25 AM"The frenzy has concluded," says Jim Klinge (aka Jim the Realtor), as higher mortgage rates push marginal home buyers to the sidelines. "The pool of crazy buyers - those willing to pay higher prices because they're tired of losing bidding wars - has diminished considerably." |Monday, Jul 229:25 AM| 3 Comments
Monday, Jul 153:59 PMLit up bright red on an otherwise quiet day are the homebuilders (XHB -1%). Lennar's (LEN -4.1%) big move puts it down 8% YTD as the benign interest rate scenario of the past many months/years becomes less so. Others: Pulte (PHM -3.3%), Toll (TOL -2.2%), Ryland (RYL -2.6%), D.R. Horton (DHI -4.6%). |Monday, Jul 153:59 PM| 5 Comments
Thursday, Jul 1110:26 AM
Wednesday, Jul 1012:51 PMNew home contract cancellations (XHB) could jump 19% for sales made in H1 of homes not yet built, says mortgage analyst Mark Hanson, as buyers had yet to lock in rates. Hanson refers back to the ending of the homebuyer credit in 2010 when new home sales cratered 38% in a single month. "It's having a chilling effet on the market," says one realtor of higher rates. Someone previously qualified at $600K might now just be able to afford $550K, he says. |Wednesday, Jul 1012:51 PM| 2 Comments
Wednesday, Jul 108:46 AM"Traffic remains healthy in the face of rising mortgage rates, continuing to push prices higher," leads off a Credit Suisse survey on residential real estate. Buyers now fear "missing out" if they wait and continue to express frustration with low inventory levels. CS' index of buyer traffic edged down to 60.5 in June from 63.4 in May - exceeding expectations for this time of year. The home listings index fell to 61.8 from 67.1. Time needed to sell fell to 75.9 from 81.1. XHB +12.9% YTD. |Wednesday, Jul 108:46 AM| 4 Comments
Friday, Jul 510:07 AM
Tuesday, Jun 251:21 PM"The housing worm has turned over the past few weeks," says Zillow's Stan Humphries, noting super-tight inventories are easing and interest rates are headed higher. "Runaway appreciation (see Case-Shiller) ... will begin to moderate ... Buyers expecting home values to continue rising at this pace indefinitely may be in for a shock." Up sharply after a big earnings report earlier, Lennar (LEN +0.7%) has eased. The Homebuilders ETF (XHB +1.6%) continues higher though. The U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR +0.8%). |Tuesday, Jun 251:21 PM| 1 Comment
Thursday, Jun 2012:20 PMThe spike in interest rates will "absolutely not" kill the housing market, says Ivy Zelman, appearing on CNBC. "Wall Street reaction was typical, but the main street reaction will be resilient." Traffic has accelerated the past few weeks, she says, as buyers recognize they can no longer be as "complacent" about rates. Prices could rise another 20% even if mortgage rates head to 6%. The Homebuilders ETF (XHB -3.8%). |Thursday, Jun 2012:20 PM| 7 Comments
Monday, Jun 1710:34 AMNAHB Housing Market Index: +8 to 52, vs. consensus of 45. It's the biggest one-month gain since 2002 and the first time above 50 for the index since April 2006. The reports is consistent with the NAHB forecast of a 29% increase in housing starts this year to more than 1M (first time since 2007), according to the group's David Crowe. XHB +1.5%, |Monday, Jun 1710:34 AM| 3 Comments
Thursday, May 2310:07 AMMore on New Home Sales: The March print was revised sharply higher - to 444K from 417K. April sales were 2.3% higher than March and 29% higher than a year ago. The median sales price was $271.6K, the average $330.8K. Inventory stands at 156K, representing a supply of 4.1 months. Homebuilders ETF (XHB -0.4%). (full report) |Thursday, May 2310:07 AM| Comment!
Wednesday, May 223:01 PMWindow, door and siding maker Ply Gem Holdings (PGEM) is set to price its 15.8M share IPO today for between $18 to $20 each, valuing the deal at around $300M. If history is any guide, the stock could be poised to have a strong debut. Already this year, three homebuilders have floated initial shares, the first in the industry since 2004. The stocks have all traded higher since, with seasoned homebuilder stocks also posting big gains this year as well. |Wednesday, May 223:01 PM| Comment!